2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Devils30]

It's weird how most of the maps have consensus about including western Fairfax with the Loudoun district rather than just starting with Loudoun and continuing west...  At least they all look better than the current 10th district which stretches all the way to McLean and wraps into Prince William.

Don't pretend the Rs have nothing to lose with a minimal change map. The 7-4 D can become 6-5 R in a good R midterm but also might be a steady 8-3 D by 2028 given VA-1's growth area is Prince William and VA-7 is Chesterfield.

[lfromnj]

By the way is Williamsburg an error. Data says it went from 18% to 38% black . What happened there?

[Non Swing Voter]

It's weird how most of the maps have consensus about including western Fairfax with the Loudoun district rather than just starting with Loudoun and continuing west...  At least they all look better than the current 10th district which stretches all the way to McLean and wraps into Prince William.

Don't pretend the Rs have nothing to lose with a minimal change map. The 7-4 D can become 6-5 R in a good R midterm but also might be a steady 8-3 D by 2028 given VA-1's growth area is Prince William and VA-7 is Chesterfield.

Yes but Dems could have made a map that was 8-3 D to start and 9-2 by the end of the decade... by pushing NOVA tentacles out into rural areas and let the urban growth overtake the rural eventually.

[lfromnj]

Also for god's sake why the hell does VA02 need to snake up all the cities to Williamsburg or whatever the GOP wants.

Why can't it just be a VA beach + Chesapeake based district?

This isn't even really about partisanship as both parties can get their partisan desires from this district. I guess extreme incumbent protection for Luria but its pretty absurd.

[Gass3268]

Virginia Democrats with this one move are now on Florida Democrats level of incompetence.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1449024521604898816

What a sh*tshow. VA Dems deserve to lose if this is how they are choosing to operate.

[UncleSam]

Virginia Democrats with this one move are now on Florida Democrats level of incompetence.

lol no, not even remotely close.

[It’s so Joever]

I hate Democrats. I am switching my avatar. I already was a registered independent and it’s clear the Democratic Party is not willing to lift a finger to protect this country from the insurgency.
Obviously I still will vote for them as they are the only legitimate political party right now, but it’s clear these frauds really have no business in politics. If they aren’t willing to do the bare minimum just to prevent a hostile takeover of this country, they have no business in office.

The Democratic Party represents doing nothing as your family is being attacked. It represents giving up a child to an unarmed guy demanding your possessions because you want to compromise. It represents complacency in a time of crisis.

[Virginiá]

Virginia Democrats with this one move are now on Florida Democrats level of incompetence.

The first step to redeeming themselves would be to approve a new amendment to either repeal Question 1 from 2020 and either replace it with a commission that can actually come an equitable agreement and not just have partisan commissioners stonewall on purpose so a right-leaning supreme court can draw the maps, or go back to the legislature drawing maps and let Republicans reap what they have sown. Democrats were unambiguously stupid to agree to the VAGOP's last-ditch effort to cling to some semblance of power. Granted, the vast majority of HoD Democrats voted against it, but the Senate and <12 HoD Dems voted for it, and they should be embarrassed by how easily and quickly the commission they endorsed has fallen apart.

[lfromnj]

Chill down, the dem legislators aren't this dumb lol. Mamie Locke knows redistricting.

The VA supreme court isn't even that hackish.  Democrats did screw up on starting negotiations but they are not accepting this map if you actually seen quotes from the hearing.

There is a screw up though in that if the rest of the commission deadlocks the VA GOP could just submit this plan as final and say we originally agreed on this. However the trick for the VA GOP should be to ask Tom Davis to be their special master. Its clear he knows redistricting well and is still very much a party hack on this matter. He's also probably the type of person to be friendly with the VA supreme court if I had to guess.

[Virginiá]

Chill down, the dem legislators aren't this dumb lol. Mamie Locke knows redistricting.

The VA supreme court isn't even that hackish.

IDK, for me personally, this kind of commission is ridiculous and anathema to the point of actual reform, which is to remove lawmakers from the process of drawing their own districts. There are too many conflicts of interest at play to let them serve as commissioners or arbiters of the final maps. I get you can't remove partisanship entirely, but you can reduce it. What good is this commission exactly if the end result is deadlocking and punting it to a court to draw? I don't see why the result in 2031 would be any different.

Not that I endorse all citizen-led redistricting reform initiatives, but I appreciate their results more than those of these convoluted commissions crafted by lawmakers who bend over backwards to continue granting themselves some or even the most control of the process.

[Mr.Phips]

Chill down, the dem legislators aren't this dumb lol. Mamie Locke knows redistricting.

The VA supreme court isn't even that hackish.  Democrats did screw up on starting negotiations but they are not accepting this map if you actually seen quotes from the hearing.

The VA SC won’t draw a map worse than this for Dems.  Dems could still easily end up with a map that produces a 6R-5D delegation in 2022 though.

[Skill and Chance]

Kind of shocked the Dem side of this didn't even try linking Charlottesville to Henrico or Loudoun or putting all of Prince William in VA-01. 

[Lognog]

They  seem to want to put Luria in a swing district which is  fair, it's a close  area  but why  nuke spanburger in  each one. Seems ridiculous

[CookieDamage]

Do Dems have enough time to step in and scrap this moronic commission?

[Skill and Chance]

Do Dems have enough time to step in and scrap this moronic commission?

It's in the state constitution, so any amendment would have to pass the legislature in both the 2023 and 2025 sessions and then pass a statewide referendum in November 2025.  There is no way voters are going to affirmatively bring back gerrymandering, but they could plausibly try to add language to the amendment in a way that they believe would be favorable to them (maximizing minority opportunity districts?  More focus on competitiveness over county/city lines?). 

Something to keep in mind is that if Dems control the legislature most of this decade, they will have appointed a supermajority of the VA Supreme Court by 2031.  With the current process, the shoe will likely be on the other foot next time.  3 of the 4 seats appointed when Dems had no say are up between 2027 and 2031, so it won't even matter if they blow it this year or in the next cycle immediately after 2021 redistricting.

[Sol]

This map really isn't that bad tbh. It has a few dumb choices, like putting good bit of the Piedmont in with the mountains, splitting the Richmond suburbs, and Williamsburg--but overall it seems pretty reasonable!
Democrats are naturally packed to some extent in NOVA.

[Skill and Chance]

This map really isn't that bad tbh. It has a few dumb choices, like putting good bit of the Piedmont in with the mountains, splitting the Richmond suburbs, and Williamsburg--but overall it seems pretty reasonable!
Democrats are naturally packed to some extent in NOVA.

That is true, but it does look like they went out of their way to sink Charlottesville and make sure VA-02 was a Trump district.  One of VA-07 or VA-02 ending up a Trump district is reasonable, but the other one should end up Biden+5 or more.   

[lfromnj]

This map really isn't that bad tbh. It has a few dumb choices, like putting good bit of the Piedmont in with the mountains, splitting the Richmond suburbs, and Williamsburg--but overall it seems pretty reasonable!
Democrats are naturally packed to some extent in NOVA.

That is true, but it does look like they went out of their way to sink Charlottesville and make sure VA-02 was a Trump district.  One of VA-07 or VA-02 ending up a Trump district is reasonable, but the other one should end up Biden+5 or more.    

Va02 is nearly impossible to make a trump district. Its actually a bit bluer on the c1 proposal than the current one. The best you can get is Biden +1.5.(See Tom Davis) That version is like Biden +5

[Skill and Chance]

This map really isn't that bad tbh. It has a few dumb choices, like putting good bit of the Piedmont in with the mountains, splitting the Richmond suburbs, and Williamsburg--but overall it seems pretty reasonable!
Democrats are naturally packed to some extent in NOVA.

That is true, but it does look like they went out of their way to sink Charlottesville and make sure VA-02 was a Trump district.  One of VA-07 or VA-02 ending up a Trump district is reasonable, but the other one should end up Biden+5 or more.    

Va02 is nearly impossible to make a trump district. Its actually a bit bluer on the c1 proposal than the current one. The best you can get is Biden +1.5.(See Tom Davis) That version is like Biden +5

Whoops, must have mixed up 2016 and 2020 data.

If the proposed VA-02 is really Biden+5, I'm inclined to say this map is fair overall.  Charlottesville with SWVA is still a gerrymander, though.   

[lfromnj]

This map really isn't that bad tbh. It has a few dumb choices, like putting good bit of the Piedmont in with the mountains, splitting the Richmond suburbs, and Williamsburg--but overall it seems pretty reasonable!
Democrats are naturally packed to some extent in NOVA.

That is true, but it does look like they went out of their way to sink Charlottesville and make sure VA-02 was a Trump district.  One of VA-07 or VA-02 ending up a Trump district is reasonable, but the other one should end up Biden+5 or more.    

Va02 is nearly impossible to make a trump district. Its actually a bit bluer on the c1 proposal than the current one. The best you can get is Biden +1.5.(See Tom Davis) That version is like Biden +5

Whoops, must have mixed up 2016 and 2020 data.

If the proposed VA-02 is really Biden+5, I'm inclined to say this map is fair overall.  Charlottesville with SWVA is still a gerrymander, though.  

Well its more the splitting of the Shenandoah.  The Shenandoah north of Roanoke is about 580k so adding Albemarle and Charlottesville to that is a reasonable option.

[Skill and Chance]

This map really isn't that bad tbh. It has a few dumb choices, like putting good bit of the Piedmont in with the mountains, splitting the Richmond suburbs, and Williamsburg--but overall it seems pretty reasonable!
Democrats are naturally packed to some extent in NOVA.

That is true, but it does look like they went out of their way to sink Charlottesville and make sure VA-02 was a Trump district.  One of VA-07 or VA-02 ending up a Trump district is reasonable, but the other one should end up Biden+5 or more.    

Va02 is nearly impossible to make a trump district. Its actually a bit bluer on the c1 proposal than the current one. The best you can get is Biden +1.5.(See Tom Davis) That version is like Biden +5

Whoops, must have mixed up 2016 and 2020 data.

If the proposed VA-02 is really Biden+5, I'm inclined to say this map is fair overall.  Charlottesville with SWVA is still a gerrymander, though.  

Well its more the splitting of the Shenandoah.  The Shenandoah north of Roanoke is about 580k so adding Albemarle and Charlottesville to that is a reasonable option.

Yes.  What puzzles me is that the Dem side (given full authority to draw NOVA) caved on splitting Prince William and Loudoun after seeing that VA-06.

[Virginiá]

Worth pointing out that the Dem-run legislature could just reject the map and have the commission draw a new one, which if also rejected would then transfer the responsibility to the VASC to draw. So whatever map they come up with first isn't necessarily going to be it.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450086623769767939

Also person tagged the wrong Jason Torchinsky in the thread lol

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450086623769767939

Also person tagged the wrong Jason Torchinsky in the thread lol

honestly, this "commission" was a mess and it seems like it was for the best to just end it.