2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Oryxslayer]

Virginia

I figure it is time to finally start discussing redistricting and potential maps for 2021. I'll get these synopses going on most of the notable states in the coming days. Even though the final census numbers will not be out for a while, state governments are beginning to lock in for the 2020 cycle. Last night, Virginia locked in a (Liberal, not Dixiecratic) Democratic Trifecta that seems poised to align the Commonwealth with her Mid-Atlantic cousins. The new trifecta could stand for quite a while, thanks to NOVA migration making the state even more blue.

Redistricting History

Virginia republicans were riding high in 2010. In 2008, the democrats captured a majority of congressional districts, each with a different base. Democrats added the 11th onto their previous pack in the 8th, Perriello flipped the Southside + Charlottesville 5th, and Nye flipped the second. This brought the state to a 6-5 D-R gap. Obama flipped the state for the first time, truly unveiling the power of NOVA nationally for the first time. However, Virginia would turn out to be a democratic bloodbath in the coming years. Republicans rebounded in 2009, capturing the governorship and improving their position in the state govt. They wiped away all the dem gains in 2010, returning the state to its 8-3 breakdown. Nye and Perriello would prove to be one-termers, but the bigger scalp was the 9th’s Rick Boucher. Like many a southern dem, he had been there for as long as people could remember, anchored by popularity until partisanship finally caught back up. Connelly held on to what was increasingly becoming a diverse part of the NOVA stretch. The last democratic holdout was the State Senate.

Congressional Redistricting was therefore was primed to be a battle. The state house drew up their own plan that reinforced the 8-3 divide, locking down the 11th for team blue and reinforcing every other incumbent. Senate democrats meanwhile drew up their own plan which broke up the African American voters in the south, creating two easy opportunity seats in addition to improving other democratic opportunities. Neither side wanted to budge. Legislatively, the divide was solved by an agreement to ‘protect your own’ and saw the House and Senate draw up their own plans for their own chambers. The Republicans gerrymandered up the House, and the Democrats squiggled away the Senate. McDonnell unsurprisingly only found issue with the Senate map and through negotiations get the democrats to concede away on a few specific cuts. Legislators entered the 2011 Virginia off-cycle with new state lines but a deadlocked Congressional process.

Wikipedia map of the 2011 Congressional Redistricting Plan

2011 saw republicans capture the senate and with it unilateral control over the state. The 8-3 map passed on party lines through the senate and was approved by governor McDonnell. But that was not all, in 2012, after Virginia’s legal deadline for redistricting, the new senate republicans tried to reinforce their new majority with a new legislative plan. The plan was killed by the Republican house both because of the changes in brought to that chamber and because of the obvious legal consequences.  The case went to and was thrown out of the Virginia courts.

Since the 2011 Redistricting

What began as a drip became a tidal wave. I shouldn’t need to elaborate any further on how Virginia flipped from one side of the isle to the other. However, that change was precipitated by the 2015 redistricting. The new maps gave Democrats their second African American seat in the south, and the courts decision to limit the scope of redistricting to a handful of seats forced changes that would later benefit the democrats. The groundwork was laid for the 7th and 2nd to flip in 2018 with that decision to redraw the 4th. The 2016 election provided new data on the reach of NOVA’s democratic lean: it was here where the GOP legislature lost their majority. There really was nothing that they could have done to prevent these laws with the redistricting pen. In 2008, the GOP was drawing marginal McCain seats that would be hopefully held long term by GOP reps – marginal McCain seats were far to the right of the nation in 2008. Growth and the job boom brought in new families, enough so that even a small swing could push all the seats away. What was sowed in 2016 was reaped in 2017. From the republican perspective, Virginia is increasingly hard to gerrymander long-term. Their voters are packed into the Southwest, and tentacles would be needed to bacon-strip the suburbs – but this would easily be thrown by the wayside via a court.

2019 was merely the capstone to a long process that saw a southern state flip. The court redrawing the entire tidewater State house region was merely the icing on the cake.

2021

The Geographic Advantage

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: the Democratic geographic advantage. Looking at all precincts more democratic then Trump+9 (what you want for your Blue-seat foundations), we get a near 2-1 pop divide. The Democrats are not stranding much votes besides Roanoke in red territory, almost everything can be reasonability put inside a blue seat. These numbers just use the 2016 data, not the far more blue numbers that are present from far more recent elections. Even if the state draws the most fair map imaginable, it will tilt in their direction thanks to this advantage. The GOP get far higher totals in the West and Southwest which can easily end up all in just 2-3 seats on accident. It’s not hard to draw democratic supermajority maps with all the Clinton-Northam-Kaine seats bordering on safe.

Growth similarly benefits the democrats. Loudoun, and in general the greater NOVA, is growing like lightning when compared to the rest of the state. Unless the state legislature increases in size, legislative seats will be reapportioned from the GOP West/Southwest to democratic NOVA. Democrats hold all the cards because the GOP are self-packing themselves into the rural ‘dixie’ side of Virginia.

The new trifecta means that maps will be passed in 2021 before more legislative elections and preventing GOP input…unless the commission takes effect. This is the only potential wrench in the democrats gears from locking down 7-4 and then potentially going for more. This commission on paper in many ways is the republicans last effort to hold some power in the coming cycle. The commission is half made up of state legislators (equal either side), 4 are retired judges, and four are recommended non-politicians. The legislative leaders pick the judges and civilians, producing an equal divide. This is incentivized since both sides are necessitated to cooperate. This commission has no restrictions on partisan gerrymandering, communities of interest, or local authorities. Essentially then, the proposed amendment is seeking to establish a New Jersey style incumbent-protection commission. It would also be tilted towards the GOP, because they currently control the supreme court.

Now, the democrats can have their cake and eat it too. A majority of democratic voters support redistricting reform and want it in place in Virginia. However, a constitutional amendment like this is required to pass the legislature in two sessions before going on the ballot. It will pass the ballot, if it makes it there. Democrats though can look at this commission and make changes that increase its legitimacy: add more civic input, get rid of the legislative roles, add restrictions on communities of interest – make it more like California or Michigan. This redistricting bill would be a different bill then the previous, and itself would have the 4-year timer on it. Already the VA African American caucus is expressing displeasure that the current fair districts bill has no protections for their communities, and Northam's legislative agenda didn't mention the acting upon the previous bill. So, democrats can get away with not having redistricting reform in 2021, but still claim success in passing redistricting reform – if they so desire to take this obvious yet devious route. The shear volume of cash and the strategy behind it that went into the 2019 elections suggest dems certainly don’t want to hand over some of the kingdom’s keys to their recently defeated foes.

VRA-wise, the democrats have two AA seats in the south, and Connolly’s seat in NOVA is majority-minority coalition. Virginia has established a tradition though this decade’s court cases that the low-to-mid 40s is a fine AA% to have in your seat, as long as there is a reasonable amount of other dems alongside said AAs. If there are only three seats in NOVA, then the 11th can keep its Majority-minority status while the 10th becomes safe dem. It should easily be possible to draw 7 reliable democratic seats, even if you want your map to pass the ‘smell test’ and look fair at first glance.

A obviously gerrymandered ROVA Block

A more approachable, but still D-Leaning ROVA/i]

When drawing districts, it is best to think of Virginia as NOVA’s 5 seats vs ROVA’s 6 seats. ROVA needs the two AA seats, some fashion of a Virginia Beach/East Shore seat, and the rest is flexible. Excluding only the AA seats, ROVA has 4 other seats, which could be anywhere from 4-0 R to 2-2 tied. NOVA meanwhile has to have three seats at minimum in the ‘True Blue NOVA’ which would all be safe dem thanks to growth. Beyond that, the region could get bacon-stripped to produce a fourth Blue seat, It could be made compact with three dem seats and 2 gop ones, or the dems could mess with the 1st and make it a swing seat all while preserving the integrity of the regions communities of interest.

What’s left to decide

Not much after last night. There are only two big questions: how many seats will team blue hold in 2021, and if redistricting reform will be passed. If it is passed, what will be the shape of the said redistricting agreement?

[lfromnj]

LOL
I just posted a thread at the same time. Anyway deleted that one and just gonna post it here.
Id say theres almost no chance state D's pass a commision, I don't even think Northam mentioned it in his press conference or whatever he had.

Assuming all incumbents survive 2020 the VA D's.
For the state senate they can definetely shore up a lot of seats and add a few seats. I haven't really seen the map for it.
For the congressional delegation
They can keep a 7-4 with 3 NOVA seats, 2 black seats while using rural South to polarize it as much as possible so they don't act as sinks and shore up VA 2nd to a likely D along with VA 7th to Safe D using charlottesville.
However considering NOVA has 4 seats with 1 Safe exurban PWC thats mixed with tide water its possible to spread out the 3 remaining districts to make 4 Safe D NOVA districts for a 8-3 map, a Really bold Democrat plan would go 9-2 with 5 NOVA seats but that has an almost 0% chance as that would completely destroy communities of interest and lazy people like Gerry Connolly wouldn't want low double digit Clinton seats.

For the state house due to the size of the districts Im not sure that a lot of incumbents would vote for a super squiiggly map. D's could get maybe a few more seats in NOVA but they can't exactly stretch it out.
Charlottesville is probably the 1st thing to fix in the state house for D's. They only have 1 rep there. A fair map would probably give 2 reps but another college town is nearby called harrisonburg that can basically create 3 Safe D districts. I think they could make another black seat in the far southwest based around Danville and the other black city. However in the SE a lot of incumbents with an extremely thin gerrymander considering that State D's can under perform in this region.


Btw the maps you drew are they 2016 or 2010 data?

[Oryxslayer]

Everything uses the latest data unless mentioned. However, I am a big supporter of drawing your maps in the '16 data for pop, then redrawing them in the '10 for the  partisan information which is gatekept to the '10 maps right now in most cases. You may therefore see some oddities in the coming weeks.

[Epaminondas]

Great post as ever, Oryx.

Is redistricting contingent on Dems holding the House of Delegates in 2021?
Or is this really on the cards?

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1163866143628488704

[lfromnj]

Anyway drew a nice little VA state senate gerrymander or atleast most of it. Has 5 40% AA districts along with 3 more 35% AA districts which would likely choose an AA preferred candidate. It is a bit messy overall but could be fixed. Maybe Hamptons+Richmond would require weakening some of the whiter districts to shore up the black districts.


Full MAP


Hampton Roads area. Has 1 VA beach SINK with 8 Safe/Likely D districts


Richmond Area- Purple and northern Richmond Brown have 40% black and should elect a black preferred candidate
The purple is 35% black and 55-40 Clinton Trump so should probably elect a unified black candidate.  Should be Safe D
Chesterfield+white richmond is 20% black along with the western Henrico district. Clinton +17 and +13 so should be Safe D.

Western VA

Roanake +VA tech. Shored up a bit from Clinton +6 to Clinton +10. Likely/ Safe D.
Charlottesville area- Red district is most of Albemarle + 0 charlottesville+ Harrisonburg which is +24 Clinton 50k population collegetown. Has to include two rural VA counties because the current incumbent Creigh Deeds is from Bath County VA even if its Trump +70. Clinton +10 and trending D. Safe D
The other district takes charlottesvile+ a bit of Albemarle and then takes Fredricksburg and the less Republican burbs of it..Clinton +10 too and is trending D but swung R overall from 08.
One last random precints that are black south+martinsville+danville+lynchburg black+some small collegetown called lexington city = a + 1 Clinton district. However I expect it to be lean/Likely R in most years.

Then 12 districts remain in NOVA, obviously Safe D(sane)

Overall atleast 22ish Safe D districts with 6 Likely D's I think and 1 lean/likely R and 11 Safe R.
The VA GOP would be screwed for decades with a map like this.

[lfromnj]

Also question to OP
Why do you redraw the map when DRA 2020 has 2016 partisan data for the 2016 census tracts for Virginia. Atleast for other states it matters but not for Virginia as you lose is Gubernatorial and Senate values.

[Nyvin]

A 7D-4R map basically has two critical points -

1.  Unite Norfolk with the Virginia Beach district

2.  Unite Charlottesville/Albemarle with the Richmond suburbs.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5cb636bc-c2b3-4214-8c01-f6b44a584f52



After those two are taken care of and you have the 2 AA districts and 3 NoVA districts, the rest of the map pretty much draws itself.

[cvparty]

This is pretty brutal but here's a relatively clean and compact 8-3 Dem map LMAO. 10 county splits. All the D districts voted for Clinton by double digits, gave Kaine 60+% of the vote in 2018, and trended D from 2008 to 2016.

VA-01 (central-eastern): Trump +23 | Romney +19 | McCain +15
VA-02 (Virginia Beach): Clinton +12 | Obama +14 | Obama +14
VA-03 (Hampton Roads): Clinton +15 | Obama +20 | Obama +19
VA-04 (Richmond/Southside): Clinton +17 | Obama +22 | Obama +21
VA-05 (NOVA exurbs): Clinton +16 | Obama +6 | Obama +8
VA-06 (western): Trump +27 | Romney +21 | McCain +17
VA-07 (Charlottesville/Richmond): Clinton +10 | Obama +0 | Obama +3
VA-08 (Alexandria): Clinton +53 | Obama +36 | Obama +37
VA-09 (southwest): Trump +41 | Romney +30 | McCain +19
VA-10 (NOVA suburbs): Clinton +12 | Obama +2 | Obama +7
VA-11 (south DC burbs): Clinton +20 | Obama +14 | Obama +14

[lfromnj]

https://www.wavy.com/news/politics/virginia-politics/congresswoman-luria-says-she-supports-redrawn-lines-for-her-district/
Hmmmm
Any chance va Ds gerrymander in the next 2 months?

[Lachi]

https://www.wavy.com/news/politics/virginia-politics/congresswoman-luria-says-she-supports-redrawn-lines-for-her-district/
Hmmmm
Any chance va Ds gerrymander in the next 2 months?

no chance at all.

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.wavy.com/news/politics/virginia-politics/congresswoman-luria-says-she-supports-redrawn-lines-for-her-district/
Hmmmm
Any chance va Ds gerrymander in the next 2 months?

no chance at all.

That would be 1. highly inappropriate and 2. politically short-sighted as it would be an open invitation to TX/GA/FL to draw out a bunch of congressional Dems next year, to the point where it would be a massive net loss.  I suppose threatening to do a maximal Dem gerrymander in VA (or also CO/NM for that matter) for 2020 if the GA/TX/FL legislatures touch their current maps could be effective.

[lfromnj]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

[lfromnj]

FYI I found this dude in VA
https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/northam-says-he-would-veto-gop-redistricting-bill-wants-court/article_a6f8acf1-1554-5bd5-b969-f4a496bc2929.html

He supported a GOP gerrymander to protect black legislators(senator spruill)
If the GOP can find one other vote they could probably get a lot of support for their map. I don't think there would be enough in the house but the senate margin is literally 2 seats.

[Skill and Chance]

FYI I found this dude in VA
https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/northam-says-he-would-veto-gop-redistricting-bill-wants-court/article_a6f8acf1-1554-5bd5-b969-f4a496bc2929.html

He supported a GOP gerrymander to protect black legislators(senator spruill)
If the GOP can find one other vote they could probably get a lot of support for their map. I don't think there would be enough in the house but the senate margin is literally 2 seats.

That would at most send it to court/an independent process.  There is absolutely no way a GOP map is getting enacted over Northam's veto.

[lfromnj]

FYI I found this dude in VA
https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/northam-says-he-would-veto-gop-redistricting-bill-wants-court/article_a6f8acf1-1554-5bd5-b969-f4a496bc2929.html

He supported a GOP gerrymander to protect black legislators(senator spruill)
If the GOP can find one other vote they could probably get a lot of support for their map. I don't think there would be enough in the house but the senate margin is literally 2 seats.

That would at most send it to court/an independent process.  There is absolutely no way a GOP map is getting enacted over Northam's veto.

Of course but ds still have to play it careful. I dont think a blatant gerrymander will happen due to the narrow majority. Maybe in NOVA for 4 seats but I think Luria will likely lose sometime in the next decade if she survived 2020 although spanberger can obviously can get white charlottesville.

[lfromnj]

Also if you look West of Richmond and South of Nova  D's currently only hold 3 state house seats in a region with 2.5 million people. Sure its +24 Trump but they can definetely get a few more seats in this region.

Charlottesville currently has 1 packed D rep in an 80% district, A fair map would definetely have 2 D reps. However you can definetely get upto 3 D reps or even 4 if you are willing to use Eastern Lynchburg. I got 2 D+13 and one D+18 district by dividing Charlottesville 3 ways. D+2(from OG charlottesville seat)
Now next to Charlottesville there is another collegetown called Harrisonburg which clinton won by 24 and has 50k people. Another smaller town called Staunton is hillary +2 with 25k people. Add these 2 up with a few super red rurals to connect them and you get a Hillary +8 district. D+3
Take another seat using Danville+martinsville + a few black rurals in far south VA and you get another seat thats 44% black thats Clinton +10(super polarized). Likely D as its pretty black which means turnout could fall in an R wave. D+4
Finally shore up the radford/montgomery county seat. Its currently a tossup at Clinton +1, move it to Clinton +15 by removing the red rurals north and adding more of the college campus. This isn't even a gerrymander, this is a good COI map. This basically Wave proofs the seat from Lean D to clearly  Safe D. Anyway this gives D's an extra 5 seats to hold in a wave although 2 are slightly vulnerable(Harrisonburg and The Martinsville seat.)

[Oryxslayer]

Also if you look West of Richmond and South of Nova  D's currently only hold 3 state house seats in a region with 2.5 million people. Sure its +24 Trump but they can definetely get a few more seats in this region.

Charlottesville currently has 1 packed D rep in an 80% district, A fair map would definetely have 2 D reps. However you can definetely get upto 3 D reps or even 4 if you are willing to use Eastern Lynchburg. I got 2 D+13 and one D+18 district by dividing Charlottesville 3 ways. D+2(from OG charlottesville seat)
Now next to Charlottesville there is another collegetown called Harrisonburg which clinton won by 24 and has 50k people. Another smaller town called Staunton is hillary +2 with 25k people. Add these 2 up with a few super red rurals to connect them and you get a Hillary +8 district. D+3
Take another seat using Danville+martinsville + a few black rurals in far south VA and you get another seat thats 44% black thats Clinton +10(super polarized). Likely D as its pretty black which means turnout could fall in an R wave. D+4
Finally shore up the radford/montgomery county seat. Its currently a tossup at Clinton +1, move it to Clinton +15 by removing the red rurals north and adding more of the college campus. This isn't even a gerrymander, this is a good COI map. This basically Wave proofs the seat from Lean D to clearly  Safe D. Anyway this gives D's an extra 5 seats to hold in a wave although 2 are slightly vulnerable(Harrisonburg and The Martinsville seat.)

Yeah the W/SW region is the only place  the Republican Gerry held for all 10 years because the region kept it's character for all 10 years. The universities are still universities and they are getting bluer - Obama was the first Dem to win Harrisonburg since the 20th century landslides for instance. It's the least flexible area so if Dem seats are drawn then they are likely to stay blue. Danville though is interesting: the southside in general has piss turnout during the off season: see how dems almost lost the nominally Clinton+10 HD75 last week, and couldn't even muster realistic opposition for the other southside seats. Shrinking AA pop is also a problem down here, so the rural southside seats probably need to be bluer unless VA Dems attach their elections to the regular midterm calendar schedule.  

[lfromnj]

Also if you look West of Richmond and South of Nova  D's currently only hold 3 state house seats in a region with 2.5 million people. Sure its +24 Trump but they can definetely get a few more seats in this region.

Charlottesville currently has 1 packed D rep in an 80% district, A fair map would definetely have 2 D reps. However you can definetely get upto 3 D reps or even 4 if you are willing to use Eastern Lynchburg. I got 2 D+13 and one D+18 district by dividing Charlottesville 3 ways. D+2(from OG charlottesville seat)
Now next to Charlottesville there is another collegetown called Harrisonburg which clinton won by 24 and has 50k people. Another smaller town called Staunton is hillary +2 with 25k people. Add these 2 up with a few super red rurals to connect them and you get a Hillary +8 district. D+3
Take another seat using Danville+martinsville + a few black rurals in far south VA and you get another seat thats 44% black thats Clinton +10(super polarized). Likely D as its pretty black which means turnout could fall in an R wave. D+4
Finally shore up the radford/montgomery county seat. Its currently a tossup at Clinton +1, move it to Clinton +15 by removing the red rurals north and adding more of the college campus. This isn't even a gerrymander, this is a good COI map. This basically Wave proofs the seat from Lean D to clearly  Safe D. Anyway this gives D's an extra 5 seats to hold in a wave although 2 are slightly vulnerable(Harrisonburg and The Martinsville seat.)

Yeah the W/SW region is the only place  the Republican Gerry held for all 10 years because the region kept it's character for all 10 years. The universities are still universities and they are getting bluer - Obama was the first Dem to win Harrisonburg since the 20th century landslides for instance. It's the least flexible area so if Dem seats are drawn then they are likely to stay blue. Danville though is interesting: the southside in general has piss turnout during the off season: see how dems almost lost the nominally Clinton+10 HD75 last week, and couldn't even muster realistic opposition for the other southside seats. Shrinking AA pop is also a problem down here, so the rural southside seats probably need to be bluer unless VA Dems attach their elections to the regular midterm calendar schedule.  

Yeah the Danville seat is probably tossup tbh. But no reason to not draw it. It's completely isolated from any other blue areas and gives an extra black rep which could get some support. It's a bit ugly but that's about it.

[Oryxslayer]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

So after looking at this map for a while, I then decided to redraw it with more 'selective' choice of precincts. The end result is perhaps the only way VA dems can get a 9 - 2 map to work. All I have to say is that I'm surprised this thing is even possible. The map is even study  partisan-wise. I guess it's a testament to the absurd geographic advantage that you can get a (not ugly) 9 - 2 going without stranding any Dem voters or compromising AA opportunity. Of course 3 of these seats right now are competitive, but 6-2-3 with all three leaning blue is impressive. Every present D is in their seat. Like I didn't even need to carve up Alexandria or Arlington!



VA01 (Green) 59/36.2 Clinton (50% White)
VA02 (Purple) 51.5/42.6 Clinton
VA03 (Red) 57.4/38.2 Clinton (AA opportunity)
VA04 (Yellow) 56.8/39.9 (AA opportunity)
VA05 (Teal) 48.3/45.6 Clinton
VA06 (Grey) 67.3/27.9 Trump
VA07 (Lavender) 50/44.1 Clinton
VA08 (Light Blue) 61.1/33.4 Clinton
VA09 (Pink) 73.6/22.9 Trump
VA10 (Light Green) 59/35.1 Clinton
VA11 (Grey-Blue) 59.2/35.1 Clinton

[lfromnj]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

So after looking at this map for a while, I then decided to redraw it with more 'selective' choice of precincts. The end result is perhaps the only way VA dems can get a 9 - 2 map to work. All I have to say is that I'm surprised this thing is even possible. The map is even study  partisan-wise. I guess it's a testament to the absurd geographic advantage that you can get a (not ugly) 9 - 2 going without stranding any Dem voters or compromising AA opportunity. Of course 3 of these seats right now are competitive, but 6-2-3 with all three leaning blue is impressive. Every present D is in their seat. Like I didn't even need to carve up Alexandria or Arlington!



VA01 (Green) 59/36.2 Clinton (50% White)
VA02 (Purple) 51.5/42.6 Clinton
VA03 (Red) 57.4/38.2 Clinton (AA opportunity)
VA04 (Yellow) 56.8/39.9 (AA opportunity)
VA05 (Teal) 48.3/45.6 Clinton
VA06 (Grey) 67.3/27.9 Trump
VA07 (Lavender) 50/44.1 Clinton
VA08 (Light Blue) 61.1/33.4 Clinton
VA09 (Pink) 73.6/22.9 Trump
VA10 (Light Green) 59/35.1 Clinton
VA11 (Grey-Blue) 59.2/35.1 Clinton

Look how they massacred my boy
Yeah overall its not that big of a difference with regards to COI besides one district but you got a much safer 7-2-2 in the end when mine was probably 5-4-2.

Btw do you think fairfax might start being diverse enough that they start requiring a state house district to be a VRA district such as for Asians? I don't think it will really affect a gerrymander so much but currently I can draw a 45% Asian district thats 33% with 2016 numbers. Maybe by 2020 it could be like 47 or 48%?

[Oryxslayer]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

So after looking at this map for a while, I then decided to redraw it with more 'selective' choice of precincts. The end result is perhaps the only way VA dems can get a 9 - 2 map to work. All I have to say is that I'm surprised this thing is even possible. The map is even study  partisan-wise. I guess it's a testament to the absurd geographic advantage that you can get a (not ugly) 9 - 2 going without stranding any Dem voters or compromising AA opportunity. Of course 3 of these seats right now are competitive, but 6-2-3 with all three leaning blue is impressive. Every present D is in their seat. Like I didn't even need to carve up Alexandria or Arlington!



VA01 (Green) 59/36.2 Clinton (50% White)
VA02 (Purple) 51.5/42.6 Clinton
VA03 (Red) 57.4/38.2 Clinton (AA opportunity)
VA04 (Yellow) 56.8/39.9 (AA opportunity)
VA05 (Teal) 48.3/45.6 Clinton
VA06 (Grey) 67.3/27.9 Trump
VA07 (Lavender) 50/44.1 Clinton
VA08 (Light Blue) 61.1/33.4 Clinton
VA09 (Pink) 73.6/22.9 Trump
VA10 (Light Green) 59/35.1 Clinton
VA11 (Grey-Blue) 59.2/35.1 Clinton

Look how they massacred my boy
Yeah overall its not that big of a difference with regards to COI besides one district but you got a much safer 9-2 in the end when mine was probably 5-4-2.

Yeah yours was a fair map. I just never thought Charlottesville to Radford seriously worked, I always assumed the Red rurals would outvote the blue islands. But once I saw it did, I had to mess around with it on a Max-Dem style map. Interestingly, the seat voted for Obama by more that Clinton, which stands in contrast to almost every other blue seat where obama either underpreformed or matched Clinton - while doing several percentage better nationally.

[lfromnj]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

So after looking at this map for a while, I then decided to redraw it with more 'selective' choice of precincts. The end result is perhaps the only way VA dems can get a 9 - 2 map to work. All I have to say is that I'm surprised this thing is even possible. The map is even study  partisan-wise. I guess it's a testament to the absurd geographic advantage that you can get a (not ugly) 9 - 2 going without stranding any Dem voters or compromising AA opportunity. Of course 3 of these seats right now are competitive, but 6-2-3 with all three leaning blue is impressive. Every present D is in their seat. Like I didn't even need to carve up Alexandria or Arlington!



VA01 (Green) 59/36.2 Clinton (50% White)
VA02 (Purple) 51.5/42.6 Clinton
VA03 (Red) 57.4/38.2 Clinton (AA opportunity)
VA04 (Yellow) 56.8/39.9 (AA opportunity)
VA05 (Teal) 48.3/45.6 Clinton
VA06 (Grey) 67.3/27.9 Trump
VA07 (Lavender) 50/44.1 Clinton
VA08 (Light Blue) 61.1/33.4 Clinton
VA09 (Pink) 73.6/22.9 Trump
VA10 (Light Green) 59/35.1 Clinton
VA11 (Grey-Blue) 59.2/35.1 Clinton

Look how they massacred my boy
Yeah overall its not that big of a difference with regards to COI besides one district but you got a much safer 9-2 in the end when mine was probably 5-4-2.

Yeah yours was a fair map. I just never thought Charlottesville to Radford seriously worked, I always assumed the Red rurals would outvote the blue islands. But once I saw it did, I had to mess around with it on a Max-Dem style map. Interestingly, the seat voted for Obama by more that Clinton, which stands in contrast to almost every other blue seat where obama either underpreformed or matched Clinton - while doing several percentage better nationally.

Yeah I was just drawing a mostly non partisan map, I did make one change to give 6 districts to Clinton(the statewide winner) by making the grey district take in a bit more of Fairfax to move it from +1 Trump to +2 or 3 Clinton) Anyway I started with the 2 AA districts and got those out of the way. I decided to try NOVA with inner Nova district +Fairfax+ split into PWC and Loudon districts to see how it worked instead of the usual 3 Safe D NOVA with 1 Safe R exurban seat.  Anyway at the end I was just putting the tidewater district and noticed that a lot of college towns were left so I made a pretty common sense district, it was a little bit messy originally but I cleaned it up so it only splits 1 county for population equality. Overall creating a Trump+5 district out of a Trump +26 2 district space was kinda cool especially with the relativeness cleanness it took and lack of gerrymandering to do it. Its a little bit more messy than what a regular district might be but I think having a district with so many colleges is a good idea as it gives their congressman a motive to represent college funding for their district .

One of the problems I had with a decision I was forced to make by solid and bagel on the map was the pink district originally curved down and picked up VA 7ths rural counties while VA 7th had Hanover. On paper it looked much more messy but it makes more sense for the Pink district to have a bunch of rural counties while the light blue district is Richmond.

If you really want to to try a 9-2 I guess you could use NOVA+Albemarle and keep the other 4 SE districts the same?

[lfromnj]

https://bluevirginia.us/2019/12/the-proposed-virginia-redistricting-amendment-is-a-bad-deal-that-needs-to-be-rejected
opposition to the amendment to delay it to 2031 so D's can redistrict in 2021 because the current one isn't good.

They give their reasons such as the VA supreme court but this was expected already.

[Gass3268]

https://bluevirginia.us/2019/12/the-proposed-virginia-redistricting-amendment-is-a-bad-deal-that-needs-to-be-rejected
opposition to the amendment to delay it to 2031 so D's can redistrict in 2021 because the current one isn't good.

They give their reasons such as the VA supreme court but this was expected already.

TBF, this was a really bad redistricting proposal.

[Nyvin]

https://bluevirginia.us/2019/12/the-proposed-virginia-redistricting-amendment-is-a-bad-deal-that-needs-to-be-rejected
opposition to the amendment to delay it to 2031 so D's can redistrict in 2021 because the current one isn't good.

They give their reasons such as the VA supreme court but this was expected already.

TBF, this was a really bad redistricting proposal.

Yeah, this amendment was garbage from the start.   This sums it up perfectly-

Personally, I would never have signed the petition if I had been told that their solution would give two Republican legislators a veto over the maps and would give the Virginia Supreme Court – which is 100% controlled by Republicans – the final say over what the maps looked like.

The Virginia court system is different than most states, in that the courts are totally picked by the legislature. This means the Supreme Court is Republican-controlled, since the Republicans have had a lock on the legislature for a generation.  Also, unlike with federal courts, Virginia Supreme Court Justices serve 12-year terms, at which point they need to be reappointed by the legislature.  Therefore, every Republican Justice’s job depends on keeping the legislature red.  It is an inherent conflict of interest.


The amendment provides no real guidelines on how the Court can decide to draw the districts, so the Justices technically can do anything they want.

It was trash from the beginning and rammed through in a desperate ploy.   Get rid of it.