2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[lfromnj]

So democrats did pass something that requires the court to hire 2 mapmakers in the end. One selected by each party. Imo its not exactly constitutional here as amendment 1 laid out clear steps but I think the court will voluntarily follow what was asked.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/CommissionVa/status/1448294804975202305

[lfromnj]

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/323/1
A citizen map but the name of the submitter is Tom Davis.
Is it former congressman Davis?
It is the 5 1 5 map by the way with va02 being r as possible while still reasonable. Only northam +1

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/323/1
A citizen map but the name of the submitter is Tom Davis.
Is it former congressman Davis?
It is the 5 1 5 map by the way with va02 being r as possible while still fair. Only northam +1

Yep, the former Chairman of the NRCC

[lfromnj]

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/323/1
A citizen map but the name of the submitter is Tom Davis.
Is it former congressman Davis?
It is the 5 1 5 map by the way with va02 being r as possible while still fair. Only northam +1

Yep, the former Chairman of the NRCC

Yeah but is it that tom davis or just a random citizen?

[lfromnj]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

[lfromnj]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

Yeah but is it actually Tom Davis the congressman or just some other dude named Tom Davis?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

Yeah but is it actually Tom Davis the congressman or just some other dude named Tom Davis?

Who is on first

[lfromnj]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

Yeah but is it actually Tom Davis the congressman or just some other dude named Tom Davis?

Who is on first

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/virginia/comment_links

Here we go. There's an attachment and it is the former congressman.

Dear Commissioners,
I served as a Republican Member of Congress from 1995 until 2008, representing the 11th
congressional district in Northern Virginia. I also served as Ranking Member, and Chairman, of
the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, and Chairman of the National
Republican Congressional Committee. I have served as Director of Federal Affairs for Deloitte
Consulting. I served as the rector and am current a distinguished professor at George Mason
University.
Since leaving Congress I have devoted my time to research, academic and non-profit work in
pursuit of efforts to build bi-partisan coalitions and re-build a Congress that can govern more
effectively from the middle. I co-authored the book “The Partisan Divide” with Congressman
Martin Frost. We advocated having independently drawn districts because the current partisan
system has become misaligned with what is in the best interest of voters. My expertise and
interest in the matter is especially valuable in creating and evaluating Virginia’s coming
Congressional maps. I am also a co-founder of No Labels, a national group advocating
bipartisan solutions to today’s public policy problems.
I have developed a sophisticated knowledge around redistricting and the law and believe fair
redistricting is a substantial part of how we end the polarization of American politics. I firmly
believe that one of the key components to reasonable line drawing is keeping political
subdivisions whole and keeping regions of the Commonwealth together as much as possible.
These are the real communities of interest that most voters recognize as fair and reasonable.
Based on my experience and perspective, I submit a map of my own to this Redistricting
Commission and urge the Commission to consider some key points about this map.
From a mathematical perspective, this map is more compact than the current congressional
district lines, scoring .3922 on the Reock measure and .3212 on the Polsby-Popper measure,
compared with .3166 on the Reock measure and .1874 on the Polsby Popper measure in the
existing Congressional map (in both of these measures, larger numbers are more compact).
It also splits fewer political subdivisions than the current map, with only 10 counties split a total
of 11 times, compared with 14 counties split 16 times in in the current map. This is about the
minimum number of splits of local government units that are possible given the Supreme Court’s
rules about population equality and our Commonwealth’s population distribution (i.e. that
Fairfax County must contain more than a single district because its population exceeds that of a
single Congressional district).
From a political competitiveness perspective, this map would produce five seats won by the
Democratic Party if recent election results were applied, and five seats won by the Republican
Party if recent election results were applied. One district would be very competitive. I believe
this map accurately divides the state into its established political regions. The competitive
district is located in the Tidewater / Eastern Shore region – an area of the Commonwealth that is
historically politically competitive.
With respect to the partisan analysis of any map, one thing I learned in my time in public service
and in writing my book is that voting patterns shift and change over time. No one should be
under the assumption that any area of the Commonwealth where a majority of voters currently
favor one party over the other will continue to favor that party by a majority years from now.
I hope that this map receives due consideration as you carry out your duties.
Sincerely,
 
Tom Davis

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

Yeah but is it actually Tom Davis the congressman or just some other dude named Tom Davis?

Who is on first

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/virginia/comment_links

Here we go. There's an attachment and it is the former congressman.

With that confirmed, looks like he drew CD7 to potentially facilitate his own comeback. No incumbents and the most GOP parts of every NOVA county.

[lfromnj]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

Yeah but is it actually Tom Davis the congressman or just some other dude named Tom Davis?

Who is on first

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/virginia/comment_links

Here we go. There's an attachment and it is the former congressman.

With that confirmed, looks like he drew CD7 to potentially facilitate his own comeback. Now incumbents and the most GOP parts of every NOVA county.

He seems too old at 73.

[S019]

This map also more or less axes Spanberger's seat and replaces it with a new northern VA seat, I really don't see what she'd do in this situation, maybe she'd challenge Bob Good?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

Yeah but is it actually Tom Davis the congressman or just some other dude named Tom Davis?

Who is on first

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/virginia/comment_links

Here we go. There's an attachment and it is the former congressman.

With that confirmed, looks like he drew CD7 to potentially facilitate his own comeback. Now incumbents and the most GOP parts of every NOVA county.

He seems too old at 73.

Evidently he disagrees

[lfromnj]

This map also more or less axes Spanberger's seat and replaces it with a new northern VA seat, I really don't see what she'd do in this situation, maybe she'd challenge Bob Good?

I mean really this map will just be used at a starting for Republican negotiations so no it won't be enacted. It may not even be used . However she absolutely retires here. The more interesting question is Luria. That seat is winnable as its around Biden +1.5 but 2022 doesn't look great and she is facing an A tier recruit.

[Brittain33]

Davis is not running again, he has burned his bridges with the national Trumpified GOP.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dude, Dems failed their voters.  All of them should be primaried for creating this useless commission that may cost Dems seats in the house when they could have shored up 2 incumbents and put a new seat in play.  Total miserable failure Dems 👎.

[Mr.Phips]

This map also more or less axes Spanberger's seat and replaces it with a new northern VA seat, I really don't see what she'd do in this situation, maybe she'd challenge Bob Good?

I mean really this map will just be used at a starting for Republican negotiations so no it won't be enacted. It may not even be used . However she absolutely retires here. The more interesting question is Luria. That seat is winnable as its around Biden +1.5 but 2022 doesn't look great and she is facing an A tier recruit.

Would Spanberger run against McEachron?

[Mr.Phips]

Dude, Dems failed their voters.  All of them should be primaried for creating this useless commission that may cost Dems seats in the house when they could have shored up 2 incumbents and put a new seat in play.  Total miserable failure Dems 👎.

I’m convinced that Dem leaders and their consultants are morons that don’t want control of congress, state legislatures, or the courts.  They just care about winning the presidency at any cost.

[lfromnj]

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/virginia/comment_links

Preliminary CD's up. A lot of it least change due to being touchy about the VRA. The current absurd VA02 would be in a lot of maps.(Note my opinion against it has to only with COI as I think partisan wise its about where it should be)

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/virginia/comment_links

Senator McDougle copied Tom Davis though for his proposal so I was correct in assuming that if it was the real Tom Davis then it would garner some attention and it would likely be the starting point for GOP negotiation.  Quite a smart move in what he did because he didn't draw any others. Mamie Locke is fairly smart though so I wouldn't worry too much if you were a Democrat.

[LimoLiberal]

The "7 competitive districts" plan, lol

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/328/1

Based NC border to Roanoke to Cville to suburban Henrico district

[Non Swing Voter]

Dude, Dems failed their voters.  All of them should be primaried for creating this useless commission that may cost Dems seats in the house when they could have shored up 2 incumbents and put a new seat in play.  Total miserable failure Dems 👎.

I’m convinced that Dem leaders and their consultants are morons that don’t want control of congress, state legislatures, or the courts.  They just care about winning the presidency at any cost.

I think Dem politicians are only interested in their own careers and thus act holier than thou all the time so they can say they were "on the right side of history" 30 years from now.  GOP politicians embrace that they are scumbags and will do whatever it takes to ram their crap through.

[Devils30]

The "7 competitive districts" plan, lol

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/328/1

Based NC border to Roanoke to Cville to suburban Henrico district

This won’t be passing. As I’ve said numerous times, I believe a minimal change map is most likely.

[lfromnj]

The "7 competitive districts" plan, lol

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/328/1

Based NC border to Roanoke to Cville to suburban Henrico district

This won’t be passing. As I’ve said numerous times, I believe a minimal change map is most likely.

Thats why its a meme proposal.  Most citizen proposals don't matter. The only one I brought up is because it was a very major Republican

[Non Swing Voter]

It's weird how most of the maps have consensus about including western Fairfax with the Loudoun district rather than just starting with Loudoun and continuing west...  At least they all look better than the current 10th district which stretches all the way to McLean and wraps into Prince William.