North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this just looks like a bad map entirely aside from partisanship, just on CoI grounds. I sure hope the Senate can do better than that (and if not, the SC should take the reins here).

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It’s a good enough map, I wish the 14th took in Richmond and Scotland instead of Harnell and Brunswick

[politicallefty]

Charlotte suburbs to Chapel Hill is horrifying. I think that needs to be cleaned that up and to make NC-01 more Democratic. I also think the more logical district in the Triad is to base it in Guilford County and pick up most of Winston-Salem from Forsyth County.

[Gass3268]

Here is the proposed new House map.

[Oryxslayer]

Here is the proposed new House map.

Supposedly:

 62-58 Trump (R)
65-55 Tillis (R)
63-57 Cooper (D)


I would like to see a DRA upload and measure the marginality of the seats myself though.

[BoiseBoy]

Here is the proposed new House map.

It really doesn't look like they changed a whole lot, outside of some of the larger metros.

[lfromnj]

Here is the proposed new House map.

It really doesn't look like they changed a whole lot, outside of some of the larger metros.

They gave Democrats the Asheville gerrymander back. There isn't a lot you can change when the initial map isn't even a super gerrymander anyway.

[BoiseBoy]

Based on the shapefile I got, Biden won 58/120 seats on the new map. Clinton won 51/120, and Cooper (2020) won 64/120.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::df281e24-3b57-4e83-9d65-df812eed1787

[Sol]

Here is the proposed new House map.

It really doesn't look like they changed a whole lot, outside of some of the larger metros.

They gave Democrats the Asheville gerrymander back. There isn't a lot you can change when the initial map isn't even a super gerrymander anyway.

Apparently part of the reason why the Asheville split has been fought for so hard is that Buncombe County Commissioners are elected from the same districts as the representatives, which could mean that in an even year Buncombe County would be controlled by Republicans if Asheville was in one district.

[Mr.Phips]

Based on the shapefile I got, Biden won 58/120 seats on the new map. Clinton won 51/120, and Cooper (2020) won 64/120.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::df281e24-3b57-4e83-9d65-df812eed1787

So assume this makes Republicans getting a supermajority (3/5ths) a lot harder?

[BoiseBoy]

Based on the shapefile I got, Biden won 58/120 seats on the new map. Clinton won 51/120, and Cooper (2020) won 64/120.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::df281e24-3b57-4e83-9d65-df812eed1787

So assume this makes Republicans getting a supermajority (3/5ths) a lot harder?

If this map passes, yes (balance is currently 69-51).

[lfromnj]

Here is the proposed new House map.

It really doesn't look like they changed a whole lot, outside of some of the larger metros.

They gave Democrats the Asheville gerrymander back. There isn't a lot you can change when the initial map isn't even a super gerrymander anyway.

Apparently part of the reason why the Asheville split has been fought for so hard is that Buncombe County Commissioners are elected from the same districts as the representatives, which could mean that in an even year Buncombe County would be controlled by Republicans if Asheville was in one district.

I mean the GOP map still had the median Buncombce district at Biden +20. It was ugly but my fair map had nearly the same partisan split(actually a moderate GOP bias in the median district but nothing super strong) It's clearly just the same thing as what happened with Washentaw and Michigan which is dissapointing. Punishing areas like Macomb democrats possibly but giving Washtenaw Democrats 7 Safe state house seats compared to the 3 Safe and 1 lean D they should actually have. The same story happens here, Buncombe Democrats get 3 Safe seats compared to the 2 Safe or 1 Safe with 2 tossups they should have but Gastonia/Cabarrus Democrats are kept punished.(Yes both Buncombe and Cabarrus have retirements )

[ProgressiveModerate]

God the Sebate proposed House map is just weird. They seem to really want Chapel Hill in an R district

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1493987204548501507?s=20&t=kxsjFLVEjq71...

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ForwardCarolina/status/1493986344682545155

Hey Chapel Hill is a university town right? So it should go with another college town right?

Oh yeah just next door is Durham, its even part of the research triangle.

NAH BOONE IT IS.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The court def isn’t accepting that Senate map (house map could fly but probably won’t). I think we’re heading towards special master

[Oryxslayer]

Based on the shapefile I got, Biden won 58/120 seats on the new map. Clinton won 51/120, and Cooper (2020) won 64/120.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::df281e24-3b57-4e83-9d65-df812eed1787

So assume this makes Republicans getting a supermajority (3/5ths) a lot harder?

If this map passes, yes (balance is currently 69-51).

That said, this map does look like an attempt at a OH-GOP situation, where a decent number of the added dem seats are marginal and could fall despite going for Biden in an unfavorable environment.

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1493984501759885313?s=20&t=DByH-0...

[Sol]

more bong smoke

[GALeftist]

WHY CANT THESE PEOPLE JUST DRAW NORMAL MAPS

[Sol]

The same story happens here, Buncombe Democrats get 3 Safe seats compared to the 2 Safe or 1 Safe with 2 tossups they should have but Gastonia/Cabarrus Democrats are kept punished.(Yes both Buncombe and Cabarrus have retirements )

I think it's really an issue of institutional strength--places like Buncombe or Washtenaw punch above their weight in Democratic party politics, whereas the Dems in Cabarrus are very weak (and party strength there is new) and in Gaston there's very little Democratic strength at all despite the floor existing due to a non-negligible Black community in Gastonia. So then of course the party is going to be more bothered by a Republican seat in Buncombe rather than one in Cabarrus.

[Sol]

God the Sebate proposed House map is just weird. They seem to really want Chapel Hill in an R district

They're just trolling to be honest--trying to draw compliant maps that would never fly with Democrats due to internal political considerations so then they can spin it as "Democrats rejected perfectly good proportional maps and went to the courts"

[lfromnj]

God the Sebate proposed House map is just weird. They seem to really want Chapel Hill in an R district

They're just trolling to be honest--trying to draw compliant maps that would never fly with Democrats due to internal political considerations so then they can spin it as "Democrats rejected perfectly good proportional maps and went to the courts"

Woodhouse said these maps were bipartisan but I still can't see Democrats accepting Orange in a Likely R district.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1493987911192260619

Winston Salem,Fayettville both split in 2, Democrats get 5 safe seats from Charlotte. Map is pretty close to a D gerrymander arguably, not sure why the GOP wouldn't just let the special masters draw it at this point, and redraw after 24. Not sure how much worse it could it get.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

These competitivemanders are lit

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1493987911192260619

Winston Salem,Fayettville both split in 2, Democrats get 5 safe seats from Charlotte. Map is pretty close to a D gerrymander arguably, not sure why the GOP wouldn't just let the special masters draw it at this point, and redraw after 24. Not sure how much worse it could it get.

Pretty sure they can't redraw the legislative maps again, unless court ordered. Congressional maps are a different story.