North Carolina 2020 Redistricting (user search)
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84695 times)
GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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« on: October 06, 2021, 02:21:02 PM »

This is a foolish map even from a partisan R perspective because that NC-01 would result in a successful lawsuit and a court drawn map putting you back at square one.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2021, 04:17:55 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2021, 11:04:48 AM »




So true. In fact, this is why the Democratic plan for Illinois is so beautiful. Instead of being packed in with a bunch of other rural areas to elect some no-name GOP backbencher, Danville is going to be represented by the chair of the most powerful party in Illinois! It's frankly an enormous leap in representation for these Illinoisans. Couldn't be more happy for them.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2021, 01:08:10 PM »

...back when the Democratic party in states like NC and TX was still led by white conservatives. You may not be aware that a decade ago, Republicans saw gerrymandering as a necessary tool to achieve power, while the people advocating for commissions and independent redistricting were Democrats. Good government and independent redistricting are liberal priorities. After Republicans used gerrymandering to lock up state legislatures and Congress, many liberals said Inks this, let's go for the jugular, too.

Some stuff

Firstly part of the ugliness of the maps was forced by HW Bush forcing VRA seats that made no sense like the I85 district. That doesn't mean that was the only reason but it was a major reason.


Secondly , I am pretty sure Cooper  was involved to some degree in the 1997 mid decade court redistricting.  It isn't like it was all white dinos. The NC democrats were a multi racial party
Brad Miller was redistricting  chair in 2000 and drew his future CD. He was one of the most progressive  members and called for banking reforms that went quite far.  Cal Cunningham won a quite gerrymandered district back in 2000 as well.

This isn't to make an argument but it is important to note  that NC was not exactly DINO.

Infact in Georgia during the 2001 redistricting  John Lewis testified in court to help uphold the gerrymandering Roy Barnes drew. However compared to NC basically all those white Democrats are non existent after the Georgia GOP gerrymandered them out replacing them mostly with black liberals. Some of this was kinda the safe route as Atlanta and inner ring black areas faced low growth and some seats had to be cut to the suburbs so they didnt want to have retrogression arguments.. On the other hand the Georgia GOP has never drawn the fractals drawn by the NC/TX/FL GOP or DEMs at the CD level. They drew reasonable compact districts that didn't destroy communities .

I think the stronger point is that redistricting reform is now basically exclusively a Democratic concern. If the Republican Party wished to do so, they could ban partisan gerrymandering on the federal level within the week. They choose not to do so for a number of reasons, which means they don't get to complain about it when blue states do it. The fact that the Democratic Party once engaged in quite egregious and indefensible gerrymandering (with the caveat that the extent of the continuity between that Democratic Party and the modern one is somewhat debatable) really has no bearing on the morality here. That gerrymandering was wrong, but it's over now. Two wrongs don't make a right.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2021, 02:53:39 PM »

Whoever's suing the state had better get on it, seeing as how the most pressing issue for its success seems to be whether it gets to the NCSC before or after 2022.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2021, 10:05:16 AM »

I’m not sure why dems are so holier thou here, look we all understand that politics is power and that gerrymandering is a means to power, it’s okay that you like dem gerrymanders, no one will
Judge you

I don't like dem gerrymanders, I think they're bad for democracy. I just think they're better than having only Republican gerrymanders, which seems to be the only other option, and that's what I'm mad about.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2021, 01:49:12 AM »

Quote
Finally, similar to District 11 in the 2016 Plan, Legislative Defendants created a
safe Republican seat in District 14 by capturing heavily Republican counties in the western part
29
of the state, pairing them with Asheville’s Democratic voters to ensure that they cannot elect a
candidate of their choice. District 14 pairs Watauga County and Buncombe for the first time
since the 1870s and meticulously avoids the Watauga County boot covering Republican
incumbent Virginia Fox

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e909f4422f7a40a188de597/t/61859e7b8789a02515e620e2/1636146812238/2021.11.05+Supplemental+Complaint.pdf

According to the lawsuit Asheville voters should be afforded a VRA district.

The 14th district is actually more Democratic than I would have guessed, if anything. Not only do they not try to get Asheville out of it like the old maps did they even have it give up some blood red rurals in the South to take in most of Watauga, which is literally the only other blue county west of Charlotte. I mean, the Colorado commission did more to shore up Boebert. I can only assume that Cawthorn has not made many friends in the state legislature.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2021, 07:18:02 PM »



Seems that these maps are likely final for 2022 at least. Ugh
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2021, 07:29:30 PM »

Given how 2022 will go, is it a reasonable assumption that the gerrymander will be in place for several cycles, perhaps the full decade?

That would be my tentative guess, but a lot can change in 8 years.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2021, 12:29:15 PM »



Looks like I spoke too soon! Filing halted with like 15 minutes to spare. Fair maps might be back on the menu!

Serves the GOP right after the farce in Wisconsin. Least change, please.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2021, 04:09:48 PM »



Looks like I spoke too soon! Filing halted with like 15 minutes to spare. Fair maps might be back on the menu!

Serves the GOP right after the farce in Wisconsin. Least change, please.

Absolute horsesh**t. Won't matter after 2022 either way.

Let's say the courts rule in favor of the Democrats, and then the NCSC flips in 2022; what would the Republicans do? Mid-decade redistricting that would get sued and hope for a ruling in their favor this time? Is such a thing possible in North Carolina?
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2021, 08:32:10 PM »



Bummer, but expected. I do wonder if the courts will still decline to get involved before 2024, as people were speculating would be the case if filing had gone ahead from the outset.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2021, 04:55:08 PM »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



Wonderful news! This day has been win after win in terms of redistricting.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2022, 07:57:27 PM »

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

Lol imagined getting impeach for using special master to draw a map.

This is where our system really starts to fail. There are no repercussions for lawmakers who do this, even though their motives and actions are brazenly corrupt.

the repercussions are elections, if voters see no fault with the legislators' actions then so be it

When you use gerrymandering to rig the elections in your favor, then impeach if the court tries to undo this gerrymandering, you create a Catch 22.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2022, 03:28:23 PM »

The North Carolina Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on February 2nd in the appeal of the trial court ruling upholding NC congressional and legislative plans.

Looks like the D majority is determined to go down in a final blaze of glory. You love to see it!
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2022, 03:58:43 PM »

Posts have been confusing? What’s the breakdown right now and what will the final breakdown be? (Will maps be redrawn or what)

The NCSC granted cert on an appeal of a unanimous trial court ruling. Fairly certain the map is toast.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2022, 07:45:50 PM »

So here's a question I have: the 4th circuit is pretty liberal as of now. If the Republicans flip the state Supreme Court back and gerrymander the congressional districts again, why wouldn't the Democrats sue in federal court regarding the new NC-02 (old NC-01)? I realize the NAACP already sued because the legislature didn't use racial data but this seems less persuasive than simply saying that a district could have been drawn in Northeast North Carolina that would reliably elect the candidate of choice of the black population and it wasn't. Because of the 4th circuit I'd imagine success here would be more likely than the Texas or Alabama lawsuits. What would be the chances of a lawsuit like this?
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2022, 09:11:10 PM »

So here's a question I have: the 4th circuit is pretty liberal as of now. If the Republicans flip the state Supreme Court back and gerrymander the congressional districts again, why wouldn't the Democrats sue in federal court regarding the new NC-02 (old NC-01)? I realize the NAACP already sued because the legislature didn't use racial data but this seems less persuasive than simply saying that a district could have been drawn in Northeast North Carolina that would reliably elect the candidate of choice of the black population and it wasn't. Because of the 4th circuit I'd imagine success here would be more likely than the Texas or Alabama lawsuits. What would be the chances of a lawsuit like this?
Federal court doesn’t work because it ends up before the Supreme Court, who already ruled on the issue. Besides, even if the judges on the federal bench were all partisan hacks, it would be a pretty awful look to issue an opinion that directly flew in the face of a prior Supreme Court decision.

Basically SCOTUS said that gerrymandering litigation needs to be contained to the state level, so that’s why all of these lawsuits are now handled by state supreme courts.

Yeah I know, this lawsuit would be alleging racial rather than partisan gerrymandering. Sorry for the confusion
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2022, 04:25:00 PM »

So impeachment probably isn't happening then?
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

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« Reply #19 on: February 02, 2022, 11:28:49 AM »

Sounding like it gets struck down 4-3 to me.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #20 on: February 02, 2022, 10:30:15 PM »

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps....
Are you for real? You're a ing hack.

Lol. Point out to me the specific clause in the North Carolina Constitution that prohibits gerrymandering.

"No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws."
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2022, 11:02:57 PM »

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps....
Are you for real? You're a ing hack.

Lol. Point out to me the specific clause in the North Carolina Constitution that prohibits gerrymandering.

"No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws."

Equal protection clauses have not been historically interpreted at either the federal or the state level as prohibiting gerrymandering. Neither an originalist nor a textualist perspective supports such an interpretation. That's especially clear considering the context, which you misquoted by putting a period at the end: "No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws; nor shall any person be subjected to discrimination by the State because of race, color, religion, or national origin."


I think they should, though, and evidently the NCSC agrees with me. How is such an approach not textualist? Partisan gerrymandering very explicitly makes some votes count more than others. I don't really care for originalism.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #22 on: February 04, 2022, 07:15:36 PM »

To be fair this cycle has been 'bad' the GOP in part because the last cycle was such an unmitigated win for them. Even without court interventions it would probably be hard to do that much better.

Hey! I'll have you know that Illinois, Arkansas, and West Virginia Republican Parties languished for untold years under the demonratic gerrymanders there.
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #23 on: February 04, 2022, 08:15:14 PM »

The real reason why these decisions get so much blowback, of course, is because some Republicans correctly realize that they might mean that the Republicans have to win the NPV for the House in a presidential year to get a trifecta this decade and that they have chosen to change their coalition to one which is hyper-efficient in the Senate and very efficient in the Electoral College at the expense of appealing to a popular majority. Sorry, guys! Not our fault!
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
« Reply #24 on: February 15, 2022, 08:36:14 PM »

Did a rough sketch of the notable districts in DRA, my estimates for the interesting districts:

NC-01: Biden+7, Cooper+13
NC-07: Trump+16.5, Forest+10
NC-08: Biden+0.1 (like 500 votes, could've gone either way, very marginal either way), Cooper+4.5
NC-09: Trump+8.5 (also lmao), Forest+2
NC-11: Trump+10, Forest+4
NC-14: Trump+3, Cooper+5
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