North Carolina 2020 Redistricting (user search)
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84660 times)
Sol
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 04, 2019, 06:57:39 PM »



And here's mine of course, since I guess this might as well be our NC2020 redistricting thread. I didn't really care who or where incumbents lived when I drew this, and frankly, I still don't.

The general theme of 13-district NC is either the 7th or the 3rd has to bite some sort of bullet: there is too much pop on the coasts for just 1 seat, but there is too little easily reachable thanks to the minority seats. It's even harder when you consider the most GOP counties in the state by percentage are south of Hampton roads and 'want' to be connected to the AA 1st geographically.

Your analysis here is right to be sure but I don't think a OBX+random Greenville+Wilmington district is a sustainable bullet biting; better to draw Wilmington in towards Robeson or up towards Goldsboro than draw such a discontinuous thing.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 07:39:26 PM »

Basically Eastern NC's map depends on what you want to sacrifice, particularly as it pertains to NC-01.
Basically you can:

A. Draw an NC-01 which is not minority-majority or minority-plurality but where black voters would likely elect their candidate of choice. This can be done without having to dip into the Triangle--nice for Community of Interest regions since Durham and NW NC are fairly different. However, because these areas are pretty polarized they could fall to a Republican in a wave--sort of a GA-02 before 2010 situation. Drawing an Eastern NC only 1st district also forces all the districts around it clockwise--basically in this layout a Raleigh exurbs-Fayetteville district is an obvious thing. This map tends to favor Republicans because a Lean D district in the Fayetteville area doesn't happen. It also forces an awkward split of Cumberland from Hoke County generally speaking, as well as a grody three-way cut of Wake. Potentially legally questionable under VRA due to above discussed competitiveness.

I drew a version of A here on DRA. Would love feedback.

There's also an option A1, which includes more westerly areas like Granville and Franklin counties. I chose to exclude them for this exercise because both counties have bits which are very Triangle oriented. Common Cause NC did a mock redistricting commission a few years ago which adopted this approach.

B. Draw a plurality black district which dips into the Triangle. This option is the current status quo. This has some obvious pluses; it makes much more pleasing maps in the rest of the state (easier mapping in Eastern North Carolina, as the coast, Wilmington, and Fayetteville/the Sandhills get their own district). Obviously the downside is the awkward hash of dipping into the Triangle. There are two subtypes; B1, which goes into Durham, and B2, which goes into Raleigh. Either way the 1st District is very likely to elect a black candidate of choice as whites in both Durham and Raleigh are D-leaning, and Black voters would dominate in a primary.

B1 has the virtue of being easier as Granville county leads the way into Durham without having to cut through super white precincts. B2 has the virtue of allowing for an all-in-Wake County district and keeping Durham and Chapel Hill together, although it does split Raleigh proper. Working on making nice versions of both.

C. A black-majority district. Would probably require two Triangle prongs and indelicate finagling in ENC besides. Not my favorite and potentially legally questionable.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 07:54:10 PM »

Chatham really belongs in a Research Triangle District and not with Randolph as they are radically different places now.

Yes, although the Western part of the county is a very similar to Randolph.

North Carolina is really rotten with these rurban counties; Chatham is noticeable because of the partisan divide, but it's not nearly as extreme as in Iredell or Franklin.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2019, 07:07:06 PM »



Don't like the Greensboro/Winston-Salem and Fayetteville regions one bit. On the other hand, that 11th seems like it was drawn by a Democrat looking for a potential pickup.

Splitting Hoke/Robeson from Scotland/Richmond/Anson is a problem, too, and the arm up to Watauga is a mess, although it doesn't really matter from a partisan perspective. This doesn't seem like a good map, or, honestly, a nonpartisan one.
NC-11 actually makes sense if you look at a topographic map of the state (mountains)

You can actually draw a whole county version--it's the same as the commissioners but minus McDowell and plus Ashe and Alleghany.

Apparently the commissioners were concerned that that NC-11 would be too long and disjunct for them. Although the whole county NC-11 is my personal preference, I can understand that argument--the High Country is not that connected to Asheville and in some respects looks more towards Winston-Salem.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2019, 07:12:49 PM »

NCYankee, what do you think of these districts?





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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2019, 04:08:22 PM »

It seems like everyone wants to keep Greensboro and Winston-Salem separate for whatever reason, so why not do the concise 3 county Guilford-Alamance-Rockingham district?
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2019, 04:25:02 PM »

It seems like everyone wants to keep Greensboro and Winston-Salem separate for whatever reason, so why not do the concise 3 county Guilford-Alamance-Rockingham district?

That would be great on it's own, but then what do you do with Caswell and Person?

I agree I really like that district though.  Alamance fits with Guilford way better than Randolph does.

The interest in the parties (both Republican and Democrat) isn't there to combine Forsyth and Guilford.   They don't want the Metros to compete against each other for the district.

Person and Caswell could go with Orange and Durham counties.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2019, 04:28:51 PM »

It seems like Democrats want to make sure that the Raleigh district wouldn't be competitive also?
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2019, 12:40:48 PM »

Well it's not impossible to draw a Triad district which would be a fair fight between both cities:

This map cuts out High Point

This map cuts out the suburbs instead (better CoI fit)
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2019, 12:42:55 PM »

First time I've seen it on the live feed,  apparently it is being considered!



Still has the ugly Union-Sandhills thing though. Personally I'd much rather have a proper Sandhills district that a Winston-Salem and Greensboro district--the former is an obvious thing while the latter is more of a judgement call.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2019, 12:46:08 PM »

First time I've seen it on the live feed,  apparently it is being considered!



I suspect the reason why it never showed up on the previous maps was less because of metro pop density and instead because Ted Budd lives right on the border. Guess whoever is at the desk is throwing him away.

Not a great map for Virginia Foxx either; she gets double-bunked with Patrick McHenry when he's represented more of that area.

Plus Foxx kind of has an anti-personal vote.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2019, 08:45:12 AM »

Perks of the map:
- There's a Sandhills Seat.
- Johnston county is in the 'catch all' 3rd rather than in a seat with a base.
- Chatham cut into the parts more  congruent with each neighbor.
- Greensboro/W-S/High Point seat
- Ashville + Boone
- Iredell cut N/S, separating the suburbs to be paired with the  other Charlotte suburban 10th.
- Raleigh is wholly in the 4th,it only loses the northern suburbs, wake forest, and western AA communities outside the city.

Wrt: Chatham County, it's worth noting that Pittsboro is also pretty oriented towards the Triangle. Central Chatham County is very similar to northern Orange County; it's oriented towards Chapel Hill and is a bunch of hippie agricultural communities and new urbanist development. A reasonable cut of Chatham is a little further west.

Again I don't necessarily think a Boone-Asheville district is necessary. People in Northwestern North Carolina get Charlotte and Johnson City TV and drive to Winston-Salem for shopping; Asheville is in the mountains, which is a commonality, but getting to Asheville from Boone is nearly a two hour drive over twisty mountain roads. They do have a fair amount in common and I'm not against a Mountains district which includes the High County and Asheville but there are other communities of interest which I think are more important.

Like the Unifour, for example.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,051
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« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2019, 04:42:59 PM »

Perks of the map:
- There's a Sandhills Seat.
- Johnston county is in the 'catch all' 3rd rather than in a seat with a base.
- Chatham cut into the parts more  congruent with each neighbor.
- Greensboro/W-S/High Point seat
- Ashville + Boone
- Iredell cut N/S, separating the suburbs to be paired with the  other Charlotte suburban 10th.
- Raleigh is wholly in the 4th,it only loses the northern suburbs, wake forest, and western AA communities outside the city.

Wrt: Chatham County, it's worth noting that Pittsboro is also pretty oriented towards the Triangle. Central Chatham County is very similar to northern Orange County; it's oriented towards Chapel Hill and is a bunch of hippie agricultural communities and new urbanist development. A reasonable cut of Chatham is a little further west.

Again I don't necessarily think a Boone-Asheville district is necessary. People in Northwestern North Carolina get Charlotte and Johnson City TV and drive to Winston-Salem for shopping; Asheville is in the mountains, which is a commonality, but getting to Asheville from Boone is nearly a two hour drive over twisty mountain roads. They do have a fair amount in common and I'm not against a Mountains district which includes the High County and Asheville but there are other communities of interest which I think are more important.

Like the Unifour, for example.

Quick Question:

Which do you think is better for Chatham, the version above or one like this:



If you haven't picked picked it up yet I tend to draw my district in groupings of counties, and ideally there is only limited cuts between said groups for pop - cuts for COI's are considered to be part of said group. In the map above, 8+10+13 are a group, 11+5+13+7+2 are a group, and 1+3+7+9 are  a group. 4 is nested  in Wake and not part of any group. So to get Chatham's cut pushed west we do a little 'circle motion' in the second grouping.

- Casewell goes into 5
- 5 drops some Guilford suburbs
- 13 picks up some of the northern dropped  suburbs, still retains all of Greensboro/W-S/High Point
- 7 takes the rest of the Guilford Suburbs
- 2 picks up central Chatham. The new cut's lines are decided purely by the pop within precincts, I would stick that bit near Alamance in 2 if I could.

I guess the second, but the optimal cut wrt: CoI would be somewhere in the middle. Siler City is a better fit for your grey, but Pittsboro should go with Chapel Hill.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2019, 02:44:21 PM »

The Republicans had to screw an incumbent with a W-S-Greensboro district--so they decided to screw Foxx or McHenry rather than the incumbent in the area? That seems like the most plausible explanation for WNC to me.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2019, 02:46:58 PM »

Anyway the 7th sucks--but it does highlight the unfortunate truth that one of NC-01, NC-03, or NC-07 must crack into either the Triangle or the Sandhills.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2019, 09:31:31 PM »

BTW it increasingly looks like the NC-07/eastern NC-09 area is "going WV" on Dems even compared to other parts of the rural South.  I wouldn't count on Dems flipping anything in that area even with the most favorable map.  The best potential for an outstate Dem flip during the 2020's is in the mountains if the court forces Asheville and Boone into the same seat given how hard left both have been moving.
 

I don't know if I'd say that--a compact Sandhills and Fayetteville district still voted for HRC. There were certainly big GOP swings and the area is definitely trending R in a big way.

But some of that is due to the Lumbee vote which is more idiosyncratic and could definitely snap back to the Democrats for a candidate who is strong on Lumbee issues--not impossible to see Robeson voting for a Democratic president in 2020, much less for Congress.

Additionally, these areas have big Black populations which give a Democratic floor in the area.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2020, 02:32:24 PM »



Anyone think they might split Mecklenburg like this.(not the GOP but the courts) The red district is only 50% white in 2010 and 35.6% black in 2010. Its almost 37% black by 2018 which is close to the current district. However its much more polarized at only Clinton 58.1 and Trump 37.8% The yellow district now has a few more minority precints to be around 20% black but also loses all of Union county and gains less red Cabarrus.
This district is nearly identical to VA 10th at Clinton 52.1% and Trump 42.8%(even has similar demographics just less asian and more black). Also voted for Romney but its basically Likely/Safe D.

I suspect the courts wouldn't go for a map that obviously gerrymandered if overruling a GOP gerrymander.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2020, 03:46:20 PM »

Although its pretty obvious that a 35% black seat in the triangle isn't very likely to elect the candidate of choice in a primary against white progressives in the area.

Especially since Durham is unique in basically all of the south for having a pretty much no Republican voting white areas in the city--the wealthy white parts are safe D.

That said, I do wonder if the GOP would like a Durham to East Raleigh district. Northern Wake County and Southern Franklin remain fairly Republican. Seems like it wastes those votes.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2020, 07:37:52 PM »



Anyone think they might split Mecklenburg like this.(not the GOP but the courts) The red district is only 50% white in 2010 and 35.6% black in 2010. Its almost 37% black by 2018 which is close to the current district. However its much more polarized at only Clinton 58.1 and Trump 37.8% The yellow district now has a few more minority precints to be around 20% black but also loses all of Union county and gains less red Cabarrus.
This district is nearly identical to VA 10th at Clinton 52.1% and Trump 42.8%(even has similar demographics just less asian and more black). Also voted for Romney but its basically Likely/Safe D.

I suspect the courts wouldn't go for a map that obviously gerrymandered if overruling a GOP gerrymander.

Tough to call it obvious when Charlotte has to be split anyway and the population growth makes it possible for it to consider 2 districts based mainly in charlotte as Mecklenburg by itself is around 10/7 of a district.

The thing about Mecklenburg is that it's a pretty easy area to split. Northern Meck. County is a good fit for a suburban district, as is much of South Charlotte. Putting Gastonia in a district with black parts of Charlotte as well as Northern Meck. is the sort of thing that screams "disgusting gerrymandering" and kind of undermines the court's point if they're striking down a nasty GOP map.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,051
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« Reply #19 on: April 18, 2020, 07:44:21 PM »

One thing that's funny about the current map: The GOP kind of left some numbers on the table in the split of the 2nd and 4th. The 2nd could have been drawn more Republican-ly by having the 4th's bite out of Wake County take in areas in the Cary/Morrisville/RTP area rather than the Northern portion.

Ironically that's actually better for communities of interest too--if you're putting any part of Wake in a district with Orange and Durham, that corner certainly is oriented the most towards those latter two counties.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2020, 04:02:15 PM »

Also worth noting--the NC Senate is a bit of a longshot pickup opportunity for Democrats. It's not likely, but definitely possible in a strong Democratic year.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: April 20, 2020, 11:16:49 AM »

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

They’d need to get SD-01.

Why would they want to try for that?   That's the rural seat in the northeast coast.  

That seat should be trending R if anything.   There's way better targets than SD-1.  There's SD-13 in Robeson,  SD-31 in Forsyth,  even SD-7 south of Pitt would be better than SD-1.

Democrats have a strong candidate in SD-1, Tess Judge, who came very near to winning in 2018. It's also not without Democratic areas which give Democrats a decent floor.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: April 20, 2020, 11:56:32 AM »

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?
In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

They’d need to get SD-01.

Why would they want to try for that?   That's the rural seat in the northeast coast.  

That seat should be trending R if anything.   There's way better targets than SD-1.  There's SD-13 in Robeson,  SD-31 in Forsyth,  even SD-7 south of Pitt would be better than SD-1.

SD-31 is incredibly inelastic due to Davie county and basically had a Dem ceiling of around 48%.  SD-01 has a large number of blacks that will always keep Dems in the game.

Democrats actually have a pretty strong candidate here too--and Davie County, although firmly Republican, has certain areas which are wealthy enclaves and in this topsy-turvy Tory Dem world may thus be likely to swing to Democrats.
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2020, 10:15:12 AM »

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( Smiley ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( Sad ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

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Sol
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,051
Bosnia and Herzegovina


« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2020, 01:34:00 PM »

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( Smiley ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( Sad ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.



Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.
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