North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cracking Greensboro like that has to be a nonstarter. No way the SC doesn't strike this map down.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cracking Greensboro like that has to be a nonstarter. No way the SC doesn't strike this map down.

Only if Dems can get the case heard and decided by November 2022 when Dems are likely to lose control of the court…

Even then, a narrow 1-seat GOP majority might not necessarily want to undo a clear precedent. That's counting on a lot of things to go right for the GOP and I honestly don't understand why they'd bother when they can get a fairly compact 10-4 map and be done with it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I imported it into DRA.

Oddly fair 6-8 in 2020 president data, with 9 and 14 very close. Who drew this thing?

Ben Clarke.(D-Fayetville)

Ah, so it has no chance of passing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They're really that f**king shameless huh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

[Antonio the Sixth]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

The lawsuit also includes CD maps, right? Obviously those are indefensible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

The lawsuit also includes CD maps, right? Obviously those are indefensible.

Yes its both.  I still want to hear your perspective on what legislative districts you would change. Analysis is very easy and objective with regards to legislative districts as you can easily only rotate a few at a time.

I'm not paying attention to the legislative maps. I'm sure there's still plenty of GOP f**kery on the margins, but the consensus seems to be that they're largely defensible? All right then.

The CD map should absolutely be struck down, and it should be so before the 2022 cycle begins in earnest.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what do you think the map would look like if the courts throw this one out?

Hopefully like the 2020 map with an additional competitive seat thrown in the mix.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Schedule

Closing arguments on Jan 6th. Probably not intentional, but I gotta appreciate the poetic aspect of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1478480966100275200

Atlas user in NC court.

BASED

[Antonio the Sixth]

If NC Rs impeach the court, even after they strike down maps, then we have to wait years before we have control of it again...while also still likely having to contend with GOP control of the legislature. What a tactical mistake this is.

What good is a Democratic SC if it can be cowed by GOP blackmail?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wonderful news!!

Whatever else we can say, this cycle has generally been a win for people pushing back against egregious gerrymanders. While a few states are still doing horrible stuff, by and large there has been a far more aggressive effort from the judiciary, activists and even institutional actors to avoid the worst excesses see in the past few decades. I hope we can all celebrate that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God why do NC laws basically guarantee  the legislature can guarantee no matter what.

Because old world Democrats were afraid of a Republican winning the Governor's seat and did all they could to seal their powers. Little did they know that some day that the situation would be reversed and a Democratic Governor would be hamstrung.

Yeah, there's no denying that NC Dems f**ked around and found out when it comes to bending and twisting democratic norms beyond recognition. Of course, what's true for one state Democratic party is true for the entire national GOP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

7-5-2 is a great deal for a state like NC, at least if the 2 swing districts are genuine swing districts (ie went for Biden narrowly).

[Antonio the Sixth]

7-5-2 is a great deal for a state like NC, at least if the 2 swing districts are genuine swing districts (ie went for Biden narrowly).

Sandhills should be Clinton Trump. Its a small struggle to draw a Biden district there.

Ah, interesting. Well, we'll see how it looks like in the end. As long as it's a good-faith effort to respect natural geography, I'm fine with it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this just looks like a bad map entirely aside from partisanship, just on CoI grounds. I sure hope the Senate can do better than that (and if not, the SC should take the reins here).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this just looks like a bad map entirely aside from partisanship, just on CoI grounds. I sure hope the Senate can do better than that (and if not, the SC should take the reins here).

WELP

Never mind, the Senate map is even worse.

you, NCGOP. Even when you try to play by the rules, you still f**k it up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1494063824953131011

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1494064618205028353?s=20&t=DByH-01IlcBT...

Maybe this means no stupidity with Chapel Hill?

Inshallah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/JoseManrique93/status/1494319545720389633

New map released by the senate

...what part of "don't crack Greensboro" is so hard to understand???

There's no way the Court accepts that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I assume (hope) no Democrat voted for this monstrosity?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I assume (hope) no Democrat voted for this monstrosity?

Someone confirm that?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What are the links to the other maps?

CST-8 seems to be this one. Can't find anything about the LCV map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is this the final map or does it go to the full SC now?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is this the final map or does it go to the full SC now?

This was just the 3 judge panel. SC has not ruled yet.

I see. Hopefully the SC will clean it up a bit because boy this is a mess.

I'm not sure about the partisanship (although it does look like it has 5 solid D seats and a few competitive ones, which is nice), but just in terms of COIs something isn't right.