2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/08/13/3rd-congressional-district-colorado-boebert-mitsch-bush/

A closely watched congressional contest in western and southern Colorado is tied, according to a poll conducted in early August and released Thursday.

The survey of 400 likely voters in the 3rd Congressional District found Diane Mitsch Bush, a Democrat, with 43% support and Lauren Boebert, a Republican, with 42%. Four percent of voters were undecided and three other candidates split the remaining 11%.

[wbrocks67]

Another NJ-02 poll. Appears Kennedy has a slight edge

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1293896593201156096

[YE]

Inside Elections has come up with a list of GOP-held seats they list as Safe R, but are potentially worth watching in a huge wave. Trump won all of these districts in 2016 with 52-58 percent. 
https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/house-races-to-watch

CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-08 (Open, Cook)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CA-50 (Open, Hunter)
FL-18 (Mast)
IL-16 (Kinzinger)
KS-02 (Open, Watkins)
KY-06 (Barr)
MI-02 (Huizenga)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MN-08 (Stauber)
NE-01 (Fortenberry)
NV-02 (Amodei)
NJ-04 (Smith)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NC-09 (Bishop)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
OH-16 (Gonzalez)
SC-02 (Wilson)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-17 (Open, Flores)
TX-31 (Carter)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WI-01 (Steil)
WI-06 (Grothman)

I have my doubts about most of these seats, but could any realistically be in play? I feel like a lot of the incumbents are pretty strong and have a good change of significantly outperforming Trump.

TX-03, TX-31, KS-02, CA-22, MN-08, KY-06 and maybe NV-02 are the only ones I consider plausible. The rest are serious reaches.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Another NJ-02 poll. Appears Kennedy has a slight edge

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1293896593201156096

Is Kennedy a strong candidate, or is her name propelling her?

That's an impressive lead.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/MSTODAYnews/status/1293926383878574080

600 Likely Voters

[VAR]

IN-05 (Spartz internal)

Spartz 47%
Hale 40%

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/13/new-poll-released-indiana-5th-congressional-district-victoria-spartz-christina-hale/3362662001

[VAR]

More RMG polls!

IL-13

Londrigan 43%
Davis 41%

https://www.termlimits.com/il13-poll/

MN-1

Hagedorn 41%
Feehan 38%

https://www.termlimits.com/mn1-poll/

[Landslide Lyndon]

More RMG polls!

IL-13

Londrigan 43%
Davis 41%

https://www.termlimits.com/il13-poll/

MN-1

Hagedorn 41%
Feehan 38%

https://www.termlimits.com/mn1-poll/

Plausible results although the huge number of undecided is not helpful.

[VAR]

Generic ballot (NPR/Marist/PBS Newshour)

Democratic 49%
Republican 43%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-TABLES_202008121039.pdf

Was D 48/40.

[Pericles]

Inside Elections has come up with a list of GOP-held seats they list as Safe R, but are potentially worth watching in a huge wave. Trump won all of these districts in 2016 with 52-58 percent. 
https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/house-races-to-watch

CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-08 (Open, Cook)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CA-50 (Open, Hunter)
FL-18 (Mast)
IL-16 (Kinzinger)
KS-02 (Open, Watkins)
KY-06 (Barr)
MI-02 (Huizenga)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MN-08 (Stauber)
NE-01 (Fortenberry)
NV-02 (Amodei)
NJ-04 (Smith)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NC-09 (Bishop)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
OH-16 (Gonzalez)
SC-02 (Wilson)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-17 (Open, Flores)
TX-31 (Carter)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WI-01 (Steil)
WI-06 (Grothman)

I have my doubts about most of these seats, but could any realistically be in play? I feel like a lot of the incumbents are pretty strong and have a good change of significantly outperforming Trump.

The TX ones are plausible flips if the trends are really strong there. Other than that, OH-12 and NC-09 seem the most competitive. Nunes might be vulnerable but it's unlikely. There may be other vulnerabilities but those are the most plausible ones to me right now.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1294129213365268480

There is no article yet, but Cook's ratings have already been updated on their website:

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Toward Democrats
CA-45: Likely D to Safe D
IL-06: Likely D to Safe D
NJ-11: Likely D to Safe D
IL-14: Lean D to Likely D
NH-01: Lean D to Likely D
TX-32: Lean D to Likely D
GA-07: Tossup to Lean D (FLIP)
NJ-02: Lean R to Tossup
NY-01: Likely R to Lean R
TX-03: Likely R to Lean R
NC-11: Safe R to Likely R

Toward Republicans
UT-04: Lean D to Tossup
IL-13: Tossup to Lean R
WA-03: Lean R to Likely R
MN-08: Likely R to Safe R

[wbrocks67]

UT-04 and IL-13 are weird, esp considering we just got that poll with Londrigan up against Davis.

And McAdams has a ton more $$$ in UT-04 too, and the suburbs ain't getting any redder.

[VAR]

UT-04 and IL-13 are weird, esp considering we just got that poll with Londrigan up against Davis.

And McAdams has a ton more $$$ in UT-04 too, and the suburbs ain't getting any redder.

College closures will probably help Rodney Davis. According to the DCCC, Londrigan blames her 2018 loss on “unexpectedly long lines to vote at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign“. The article notes that “Driving out a large student vote in this college-heavy district is the key to Londrigan’s chances in 2020.”

Sabato, Daily Kos, and Inside Elections rate this district Tilt/Lean R, so it’s not that surprising.

UT-04 really is weird though. I think it’s Lean D.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

GA-07 was long overdue. Also, the TX-03 move lines up with what I hear on the ground. Biden is up in that district, but Taylor is more popular than Generic R

[politicallefty]

I didn't notice until now, but the Cook ratings have put the House out of reach for Republicans. There are now 221 districts that are safe, likely, or lean Democratic.

With TX-03 now at Lean R, it does seem as though the Republicans could have a potential massive disaster on their hands in the state. I'm hoping with all the cash Biden now has that he'll devote significant resources that could have down-ballot repercussions.

[wbrocks67]

Webb (D) internal/GSG - VA-05

Good 44
Webb 42

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511974-internal-poll-shows-neck-and-neck-race-brewing-in-virginia-house-contest

Trump also only up by 2 here, in this Trump+13 district

[We Live in Black and White]

Guess a ratings change is what Cawthorn gets for making himself look like a Nazi.

Also Morris has proven to be a surprisingly excellent candidate, in all fairness.

[YE]

Why is MN-08 now Safe R? I don’t know a ton about that race but I was really sad it flipped two years ago.

[Roll Roons]

Why is MN-08 now Safe R? I don’t know a ton about that tace but I was really sad it flipped two years ago.

It's a pretty Trumpy area and Stauber is a strong incumbent.

[Tekken_Guy]

UT-04 and IL-13 are weird, esp considering we just got that poll with Londrigan up against Davis.

And McAdams has a ton more $$$ in UT-04 too, and the suburbs ain't getting any redder.

College closures will probably help Rodney Davis. According to the DCCC, Londrigan blames her 2018 loss on “unexpectedly long lines to vote at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign“. The article notes that “Driving out a large student vote in this college-heavy district is the key to Londrigan’s chances in 2020.”

Sabato, Daily Kos, and Inside Elections rate this district Tilt/Lean R, so it’s not that surprising.

UT-04 really is weird though. I think it’s Lean D.

From what I know, most students tend to vote from their homes, not their college precincts. There does seem to be some fear but a lack of concrete evidence supporting this.

I think the Massachusetts Dem Primary will give us a barometer as to how online schooling will effect the election.

[Gracile]

A few other notable things about these Cook rating changes in relation to the other two major prognosticators (Inside Elections and Sabato):

-CA-45 and NJ-11 have now joined CO-06, MN-03, and VA-10 in the category of formerly competitive Democratic seats at the beginning of this election cycle that are now rated universally Safe D by the Big Three prognosticators.
-NJ-11 has also earned the distinction of being the first Trump 2016 seat to be rated universally Safe by these prognosticators. (Obviously, it seems unlikely that Trump will win this district again but it is still noteworthy nonetheless.)
-Similarly, the MN-08 rating change has placed that seat as universally Safe R by the major prognosticators after being considered on the fringes of competitive early in the cycle.
-Cook has now put GA-07 in the Democratic column, coming right off the heels of Inside Elections moving that seat toward the Democrats. Currently, there are five Republican-held seats listed in the Democratic column by any of the Big Three (CA-25, GA-07, NC-02, NC-06, and TX-23), while there are presently no Democratic-held House seats that have been placed in the Republican column.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

A few other notable things about these Cook rating changes in relation to the other two major prognosticators (Inside Elections and Sabato):

-CA-45 and NJ-11 have now joined CO-06, MN-03, and VA-10 in the category of formerly competitive Democratic seats at the beginning of this election cycle that are now rated universally Safe D by the Big Three prognosticators.
-NJ-11 has also earned the distinction of being the first Trump 2016 seat to be rated universally Safe by these prognosticators. (Obviously, it seems unlikely that Trump will win this district again but it is still noteworthy nonetheless.)
-Similarly, the MN-08 rating change has placed that seat as universally Safe R by the major prognosticators after being considered on the fringes of competitive early in the cycle.
-Cook has now put GA-07 in the Democratic column, coming right off the heels of Inside Elections moving that seat toward the Democrats. Currently, there are five Republican-held seats listed in the Democratic column by any of the Big Three (CA-25, GA-07, NC-02, NC-06, and TX-23), while there are presently no Democratic-held House seats that have been placed in the Republican column.

MN-07 should be an R flip, but that’s probably the only individual seat I expect Democrats to lose. I think Democrats are slightly favored in each of IA-01, OK-05, SC-01, NY-22, NY-11, NM-02, UT-04 and ME-02, but chances are at least one of them also flips.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1294348072512888832?s=20

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

It probably was, but they didn't like what they saw.

[Pericles]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

It probably was, but they didn't like what they saw.

If Taylor is outrunning Trump by double digits, that is pretty impressive and seems like something they'd want to publicise.