2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[OneJ]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

lol. If this was a poll showing Trump unpopular in GA or something you'd cream your pants over it.

Believe it or not, but I wouldn’t. There’s so much evidence out there which points to Trump being in a world of trouble in GA that there’d be no need to cling to random tweets.

Trump is still more likely to win GA than Wisconsin, I know trends are real but still, when you look at 2018 results it's clear where Trump is the more popular. (unpopular opinion on Atlas)

Georgia swung towards Abrams more than Wisconsin did in favor of Evers. That alone makes me hesitant to say that Georgia is less likely to flip than Wisconsin at the moment.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1269615519369498626

[OneJ]

Reposting here for the congressional district poll:

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1276327962204405763

Looking a lot like Eastman's internal from a while ago.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1277950774652424193

[OneJ]

Just checked the RCP average for the Generic Ballot and it has D+11 although they still have an old WSJ poll (late May/early June).

[OneJ]

It should be noted that the Red to Blue program's candidate list is overwhelmingly made up of women. Out of the thirty candidates, only four of them are men.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1287790516399214599

Holy moly...

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/MSTODAYnews/status/1293926383878574080

600 Likely Voters

[OneJ]

This poll appears not to have been posted yet, but Stephen Lynch's primary is being overlooked amidst a discourse focused on MA-01, MA-04 and MA-SEN:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-e117-db69-a777-fdff5c580000

August 8-9, 2020
1038 likely voters
MoE: 3.04%

Stephen Lynch 39%
Robbie Goldstein 32%
Undecided 29%

The pollster is called Lincoln Park Strategies. They're keen to give us some surveys on this new divide as we crawl towards primary day; perhaps the voters of MA-08 really will be breaking the habit of electing Lynch.

Wow. I can't say I'm too surprised by this tbh. I'm pretty surprised how much people have been sleeping on this race giving how much upset potential there is in the first place. The big red flag for Lynch was his poor fundraising and his challenger was outraising him. We could be seeing two (!) successful primaries of incumbents the same night in MA.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1296523710506110981

I'm going to go ahead and be bold with this one: Goldstein pulls this out.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/davidhastweets/status/1313224627775303682

This race is shaping up to be sort of a sleeper race. I don't expect Espy to win but given all this new energy the campaign has been seeing recently, CHS's long-term absence from the public, and maybe even the effect covid might be having this race could quietly get closer than in 2018.

[OneJ]

A few Senate ratings changes from Sabato's today:

https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1314061830269005824

[OneJ]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

The sheer lack of defense they're putting into Texas seats like 2, 3, 6, 25, and 31 is just stunning. It's hubris. They must really think 2018 was some fluke, which is straight delusional when the places that caused those massive swings are already logging more votes than they did in 2018 (Williamson, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Harris)

Yeah, because it's not like Dan Crenshaw is lacking for money.

Ok, but the other seats? Are they seriously delusional enough to think Williamson County's 2018 result was a fluke? That seat is flying so under the radar it's not even funny.

Especially since all the Dem candidates, besides Ladjevardian, outraised their opponents in these districts and Biden being really competitive in Texas doesn't help. I'm hoping for maybe a surprise flip or few.

[OneJ]

Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11

We've seen multiple polls showing Eastman drastically underperforming Biden. It would not be shocking to see her lose while Biden carries it.

Fair point, but assuming does win the district by 11 it’d be hard for even #strongcandidate Bacon to hold on. The same applies to NY-24 and PA-01.