OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

The "It's over." people are pretty annoying.

But.

It's over.

[Chief Justice Keef]

The provisional ballots are not gonna save O'Connor. People saying "it's over" ought to keep saying it as long as there's posters who believe there's a golden box of absentees waiting to be picked up in Franklin County.

[NOVA Green]

Nobody knows where in Delaware these votes are

Yes--- what's up with that?

Are these Union Public Sector Republicans that work for the election department in Delaware County all taking their smoke break at the same time, now that they did their duty?

Actually amazing for all the hate by Republicans on the inefficiencies of large Metro/Urban Counties, how supposedly a model of suburban efficiency does a much poorer result of delivering results to their customers (The Voters) than the supposed evil "Big City Democratic Machine of Franklin County"...

Honestly I think it's more about money when it comes to Delaware County than anything else, where the PUBS have held a lock on voting and elections for over 100 Years....

[OneJ]

We still have to wait for provisionals...

[krazen1211]

Balderson is soaring! 1700 vote lead.

[BudgieForce]

On the brightside, O'Connor was probably going to lose in November anyway.

[ON Progressive]

Does everyone here not realize that most of those Green voters just wouldn't show up if there wasn't a Green candidate on the ballot?

Anyone who is willing to vote Green in a freaking Congressional special election is a loyal Green voter anyway.

[new_patomic]

The super delegates haven't even voted yet.

I'd say if one wanted to be really hopeful, the 7 remaining precincts could perhaps claw back the margin a few hundred votes to a point where provisional *might* matter if they're enough of them.

But that's really unlikely.

[Politician]

Balderson is soaring! 1700 vote lead.

*rolls eyes*

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Well ugh.

Democrats needed to win this by 3 or more points to prove that they had not lost momentum since the PA-18 special.

It seems that they did not win at all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The provisional ballots are not gonna save O'Connor. People saying "it's over" ought to keep saying it as long as there's posters who believe there's a golden box of absentees waiting to be picked up in Franklin County.

[Virginiá]

gg 'pubs, see you in November

A 10-point swing from the presidential election isn't good by any means, but you have to remember that we did not have the advantage of incumbency here.  Plus, these special elections are lower-turnout and give the Democratic Party more opportunity to invest.  A 4 or 5 point national PV loss, on the other hand, would keep a lot of districts red and may save the House.

Incumbency isn't that magical. This is still a seat Republicans shouldn't have had an issue with if the national environment was even remotely close to neutral. This is just another data point suggesting a Dem wave.

And from what I read, turnout was close to 2014 - midterm level turnout, albeit a lower turnout midterm. Many of the other Congressional special elections had similar turnout, or even MORE than 2014. I'm sorry, but this "special election = low turnout and not representative of general elections" needs to die, because in the Trump era, it often hasn't been true for US House specials.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

#BlueRipple

[South Dakota Democrat]

Balderson is soaring! 1700 vote lead.

*rolls eyes*

Yup, super annoying.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Well ugh.

Democrats needed to win this by 3 or more points to prove that they had not lost momentum since the PA-18 special.

It seems that they did not win at all.

Good analysis

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Balderson is soaring! 1700 vote lead.

It's going to fun watching all of you in horror as the returns come in in November. I've been where you are, hitting that wall after you run out of denial is harsh.

[Lachi]

Still, the GOP should have easily won this district, this was one of the biggest GOP margins in the house in 2016. The fact that it's a tie is a disaster for Republicans.

[IceSpear]

On the brightside, O'Connor was probably going to lose in November anyway.

I don't buy that at all. Look at the PA-12 special results in 2010 vs. the general results. O'Connor could definitely still win in November even with this narrow loss.

[Greedo punched first]

Is Balderson establishment or Tea Party?

[Thunder98]

This is a super close race but Balderson narrowly wins.

[Politician]

#BlueRipple

*eyes fall out of skull*

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1027017630601957376

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is Balderson establishment or Tea Party?

At this point that is a meaningless distinction.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Is Balderson establishment or Tea Party?

Does it matter anymore?

[Nyvin]

There are four districts in Ohio that are less Republican than OH-12.