OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Virginiá]

NOVA: OH-12 aside, I'm hoping you plan to do a big picture analysis of the November general elections across the country. I'd be very interested to see your take on it.

[Virginiá]

Looking into this, apparently Balderson's primary opponent, Melanie Leneghan, has filed suit alleging that the primary was rigged in favor of Balderson through fraud in Franklin and Muskingum Counties.

Here is the case on the Ohio Supreme Court docket: http://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/Clerk/ecms/#/caseinfo/2018/0866

That’s exactly the kind of story Balderson needs heading into next week

Sweet jesus, thank you thank you thank you

[Virginiá]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

[Virginiá]

The Dems only need WI, MI, PA to the EC college. But, with 3 dozen GOP (36) house districts at stake, it makes FL and OH purple states and control of House and Senate at stake

OC, with all due respect, you do this way too much. This post is only very, very mildly germane to the thread topic (or maybe not at all?). This is about the OH-12 special election, not about vague pronouncement about what Democrats need in 2018 and 2020. Seriously, you keep repeating these tidbits that sometimes have nothing to do with the topic at hand and are quite honestly things everyone already knows anyway.

[Virginiá]

You're really gonna try?

Someone has to try

[Virginiá]

It's that time again (@Politico):

Trump jumps into Ohio special election as GOP alarm grows

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/31/trump-ohio-special-election-753326

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[Virginiá]

The question is will Trump discover like most other Presidents that visits in midterms usually drive up the opposition more than supporters.

I astually not sure these trials will not aggravate Trump supporters.  My wife is getting really mad.  The trials have nothing to do with Russiagate.   They Involve old facts on which the Obama Justice Department declined to prosecute.  In some cases they failed to prosecute because Obama supporters were also involved.

Like who?

Manafort and Rick Gates, for instance? Their crimes did not get discovered until they thrusted themselves into the spotlight and into a situation where they got caught up in the investigation of someone else.

There is a huge difference between declining to prosecute and not even knowing about in the first place. The fact that you used these words is so typical of a partisan.

[Virginiá]

I don't even get why Republicans care so much about this (well, actually, I get it, but it's dumb). If there is going to be a wave, it doesn't matter if they save face in a couple special elections or not. Just because they manage to prevent a loss in OH-12 doesn't mean it's suddenly going to be good for them in November. And it doesn't mean Democrats aren't going to continue bringing in truckloads of cash via fundraising either. Yet every time we have had a special election, Republicans act like it is priority #1 to win it for [insert reasons for saving face]. They could have saved themselves a lot of money if they just let things play out on their own.

That being said, what GEM said seems decent. A slight loss by Danny boy or a win is just as good. There is no fundamental difference in the November predictions game if he loses by 1 point or wins by 1 point.

[Virginiá]

I mean that's all true, but couldn't you say the same about Democrats? One seat is not a lot, but it's still a seat.

Probably, but I view Democrats as in a naturally precarious situation with the US House. They need literally every seat they can get, given how disadvantaged they are with the gerrymandered + geographically biased maps. If O'Connor wins and the election turnout is at least semi-good tomorrow, he'll have incumbency to lean on for November, and that makes it easier to hold the seat vs winning it outright.

In that sense, Democrats need this a lot more than Republicans do.

[Virginiá]

How much did Portman win this district by in 2016?

62 - 34%

[Virginiá]

@re: marty's post on interest in special elections

I have a hard enough time keeping track of conversation on special election day, I'm not sure how I can deal with general election for a midterm. I've never done one of those on Atlas. In 2016, I mostly paid attention to the presidential race and only went over everything else after. Without a big race at the top, my focus is split among like a dozen key states with all kinds of races.

Worst yet, it's not a neutral year, and we know Democrats are probably to make up a lot of ground lost over the past 8 years, so there is going to be a lot to pay attention to. So many competitive races is really painful on election day when you think about it

[Virginiá]

Don't worry about it, Atlas usually crashes on election day anyway.

Not that I'm confident it will work entirely as-expected, but I've been working on a new update to try and prevent that from happening.

[Virginiá]

When exactly can we expect to get an idea of how this race will end? Or, in other words, when will they start uploading election day votes?

[Virginiá]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Isn't it high turnout that usually favors Democrats?

It really depends which party is most enthusiastic about voting. In the Obama years, that was Republicans, now under Trump it is Democrats. It's part of why they have done so well in random legislative specials where turnout is absurdly low.

But yes, the Republican base has a disproportionate amount of people with really high turnout rates,so that does give them an advantage - usually. A caveat being that Democrats seem to have peeled away a lot of white college grads, which is helping them in midterms since they are reliable voters (and WWCs aren't as much).

[Virginiá]

The gloating from Trump/GOP if Balderson wins will be unbearable no matter how narrow there will be endless talk of #RedWave Dems are doomed.

It's pretty sad that Trump/some Republicans feel this overwhelming need to counter the blue wave narrative with a polar-opposite "red wave" narrative of their own. I mean, really? You'd have to be a moron to think this election would actually be a Republican wave year. There is absolutely nothing suggesting anything close to an R wave and actually most of the data suggests the opposite. The best argument is that Democrats will fall short of expectations in the end and it'll be more neutral even if somewhat Dem-leaning, which would lead to Rs possibly keeping Congress/the House. That is a far better rebuttal that is grounded in reality.

Instead, you just have people reflexively spewing unadulterated BS just to counter every single theory of the election from the left. Do they not care at all about looking like idiots on election day?

[Virginiá]

What’s inspiring or motivating about saying that it’s a neutral or tilt D year? He’s trying to fire up the base and get them to the polls

It's just delusional, and I hate it when any politician just makes these absurd claims for partisan or personal motivations. I don't get what is wrong with just breaking even in a midterm when the president is really unpopular. That is actually a really good result for the president's party for a midterm. It should be enough for people to appreciate, especially because it's more in line with reality rather than a fantasy world.

But, I get where you're coming from. I just think pols shouldn't have to stoop to the level of making stuff up and outright lying to keep their people enthused.

[Virginiá]

gg 'pubs, see you in November

A 10-point swing from the presidential election isn't good by any means, but you have to remember that we did not have the advantage of incumbency here.  Plus, these special elections are lower-turnout and give the Democratic Party more opportunity to invest.  A 4 or 5 point national PV loss, on the other hand, would keep a lot of districts red and may save the House.

Incumbency isn't that magical. This is still a seat Republicans shouldn't have had an issue with if the national environment was even remotely close to neutral. This is just another data point suggesting a Dem wave.

And from what I read, turnout was close to 2014 - midterm level turnout, albeit a lower turnout midterm. Many of the other Congressional special elections had similar turnout, or even MORE than 2014. I'm sorry, but this "special election = low turnout and not representative of general elections" needs to die, because in the Trump era, it often hasn't been true for US House specials.

[Virginiá]

Christ what a horrible performance! And in a district where our nominee did so well not too long ago. Damn, this is not good. We're gonna have to do much better than this in November. I can't believe that we couldn't take the 12th...I mean, my god...we couldn't win Murtha's old seat.

I think we need to reevaluate our prospects after this loss...maybe the Midwest and MidAtlantic is just not responding to our message.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_12th_congressional_district_special_election,_201)

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/026/832/jeongtweet.jpg

Who woulda thunk the Midwest would not respond to the message? Deplorables!

So do you actually have any evidence this had any impact whatsoever or are you just throwing that out there to be snarky?

[Virginiá]

Can you de-Mod him? A troll should not be a mod.

Dave is the only one who can make or remove moderators.

[Virginiá]

Maybe - maybe not.

If this election had been held in the spring, O’Conner would have won.

If PA 18 had been held today I believe Saccone would have won.

Estes will win by a good margin in Kansas in November.  

This socialist tilt by a wing of your party is not going to be helpful to you in attracting up scale suburban Republicans.  You really need to ditch the socialists.

There maybe a Democrat Atlas red wave, but I do not fear it as much as I did yesterday.

See, this is what I just can't understand. If Danny had gotten 1 - 1.5 more point(s) or so, he'd have won, and yet in terms of actual votes, it's not that much different from losing. Would you still feel the same way if Danny won by the same amount Baldie did?

I just don't get how you are less worried. If Clinton was in the White House and a Republican almost won a D+7 district that Clinton won by 11 points, and months ago Rs won a D+11 district, I would be crippled by anxiety about the thrashing Republicans were about to deliver to my party in November. That you can't or won't see these signs for what they are is puzzling.

[Virginiá]

Guys, we needa learn how to take an L.

We are, this is visibly less painful for Atlas Democrats compared to the Ossoff loss a little over a year ago. It’s a lot easier to take it on the chin when we have so many indicators pointing to a favorable midterm environment and Republicans barely clinching a race that shouldn’t have been competitive. I think you’re overreacting a bit.

Bagel seems like he drinks too much caffeine and/or takes too much adderall around election time lol

I don't really see many people unable to accept a loss. I see a lot of people correctly stating or in some way acknowledging that losing by <1 point in a R+7 / T+11 and historically R district is not the same as a win but still informative that Ds are finally going to get a very good midterm and regain some power in DC. I also see the usual posters trying to move the goal posts and act as if this race is supposed to be competitive in the first place.