OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (user search)
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 109241 times)
BudgieForce
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« on: July 26, 2018, 09:25:28 AM »
Kasich just endorsed Balderson, unsurprisingly.


https://www.johnkasich.com/blog-posts/gov-john-kasich-endorses-troy-balderson-for-congress/

I dont think it really moves the needle, but makes O'Connors push for moderate republicans slightly tougher.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2018, 09:35:25 AM »
« Edited: July 26, 2018, 10:47:14 AM by Brittain33 »
Quote from: Brittain33 on July 26, 2018, 09:26:29 AM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on July 26, 2018, 09:25:28 AM
Kasich just endorsed Balderson, unsurprisingly.


https://www.johnkasich.com/blog-posts/gov-john-kasich-endorses-troy-balderson-for-congress/

I dont think it really moves the needle, but makes O'Connors push for moderate republicans slightly tougher.


We will hear a lot about this if Balderson wins by < 3 points which I consider the most likely outcome.

I was under the impression republicans dont really listen to Kasich anymore, hence why I dont think the endorsement matters all the much. If Balderson wins by +3 or more, he was always going to win and no endorsement was going to change that.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2018, 09:46:35 AM »

It was already tiLt GOP.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2018, 09:48:34 AM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on July 26, 2018, 09:47:27 AM
No, they changed the ratings, Cook to tossup

Oh, well, Cook isnt going to change its rating based off one endorsement.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2018, 05:22:55 PM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on August 02, 2018, 04:52:07 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on August 02, 2018, 03:55:39 PM
Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.
Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2018, 05:42:09 PM »
I do remember listening to interviews in 2016, right before the Ohio primary, about a bunch of democrats who were fine with Hillary being the nominee so they crossed over and voted for Kasich to try and stop Trump. There was also some speculation that one of the reasons Hillary beat Bernie in Ohio by such a lopsided margin was due to these democrats crossing over since many of them could have been Sanders supporters.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2018, 05:09:12 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 06, 2018, 04:43:19 PM
That said these numbers look too flimsy to hold up. Obama won ev in ohio by like 20 and then won the state by like 3, a 17 pt reduction. Other and indies would have to heavily break for us to try and meet this metric. That also said, the dynamics of this race are very sifferent as well.

Why does that matter in this specific congressional district.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2018, 05:18:32 PM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on August 06, 2018, 05:16:08 PM
Hate to say it but I was calling days ago that O’Connor EV % was dropping too fast

Again, we dont know who these ballots were cast for.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2018, 02:28:49 PM »
Nice knowing you Bagel.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2018, 05:10:25 PM »

Thank you for being an Atlas stereotype.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2018, 05:12:24 PM »
*sigh*
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2018, 05:20:56 PM »
Quote from: marty on August 07, 2018, 05:19:49 PM
Is anyone else finding their interest in these special elections waning as we approach election day in Nov?

We already know dems are over performing and this race is up for grabs again in a few months anyway

I guess it provides some entertainment tonight for us political
Junkies, but I have to admit by tomorrow morning I’ll have moved on to something else

*raises hand*
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2018, 05:42:25 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on August 07, 2018, 05:38:23 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 07, 2018, 05:37:19 PM
Don't worry about it, Atlas usually crashes on election day anyway.

Not that I'm confident it will work entirely as-expected, but I've been working on a new update to try and prevent that from happening.

Jeez Virginia, Dave should just give you Atlas. You've spent more time trying to improve it than a majority of us combined.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2018, 06:15:34 PM »
Quote from: marty on August 07, 2018, 06:12:03 PM
5 mill?

Lol my perspective is skewed cuz al my friends and relatives are relatively interested in political data and elections

I dont even think a majority of people on this forum are following this race.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2018, 06:46:22 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on August 07, 2018, 06:45:28 PM
Alright everyone time to freak out over early votes!

Ahhhhhhhhahhhhahh

WHOSE FREAKING OUT IM NOT FREAKING OUT
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2018, 06:49:41 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on August 07, 2018, 06:48:49 PM
I feel like Republicans should give up on 2020 now.

Alittle too soon for that kind of talk.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2018, 07:42:57 PM »
Quote from: SHO MI YOWA BUREIV HAAT on August 07, 2018, 07:41:48 PM
O'Connor's lead falling fast with only 10% of the ED vote in.

That is 100% expected.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2018, 07:51:33 PM »
Quote from: Seattle on August 07, 2018, 07:50:22 PM
Franklin just dumped: 22,981 (71%) - 9,371 (29%)

TMI
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2018, 08:12:30 PM »
It will come down to Delaware county, and unsurprisingly, Delaware county is taking forever to report in.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2018, 08:18:21 PM »
Balderson's benchmark in Delaware is +9.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2018, 08:23:08 PM »
Some of you really need to learn patience.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2018, 08:25:49 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on August 07, 2018, 08:24:55 PM
Delaware County is going to decide this and Balderson is up there now.

Balderson's benchmark is +10 f.y.i.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #22 on: August 07, 2018, 08:53:36 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 08:52:47 PM
*Speaks softly to self*

Ignore the troll, ignore the troll, ignore the troll...

All you can do is report him.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #23 on: August 07, 2018, 08:57:10 PM »
Headlines tomorrow will be "to close to call" probably.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2018, 09:11:57 PM »
Will provisionals be counted tonight?
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