OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Virginiá]

Can you de-Mod him? A troll should not be a mod.

Dave is the only one who can make or remove moderators.

[Xing]

Christ what a horrible performance! And in a district where our nominee did so well not too long ago. Damn, this is not good. We're gonna have to do much better than this in November. I can't believe that we couldn't take the 12th...I mean, my god...we couldn't win Murtha's old seat.

I think we need to reevaluate our prospects after this loss...maybe the Midwest and MidAtlantic is just not responding to our message.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_12th_congressional_district_special_election,_201)

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/026/832/jeongtweet.jpg

Who woulda thunk the Midwest would not respond to the message? Deplorables!

So do you actually have any evidence this had any impact whatsoever or are you just throwing that out there to be snarky?

Can you de-Mod him? A troll should not be a mod.

leave Beet alone!

Or, better yet, put him on ignore. Not worth engaging with him.

[Adam Griffin]

FINAL RESULTS: (based on Delaware County's website):

Balderson 101566 50.16%
O'Connor 99800   49.29%
Manchik 1127 0.55%   

[mds32]

Some are calling the election already

https://mobile.twitter.com/StrawPollReport/status/1027012869794267137

[cvparty]

a reverse PA-18
obviously this matchup is happening again in 12 weeks, we'll see what happens then. also ohio redistricting in 2020 could potentially shift this district's CPVI 7 points more democratic (franklin+delaware is projected to be almost perfectly 2 districts)

[Doimper]

Can you de-Mod him? A troll should not be a mod.

Dave is the only one who can make or remove moderators.

I love how active and engaged Dave is with his forum!

[Suburbia]

Democrats shouldn't be blaming the Green Party.

People can vote for whomever they want to.

Danny O'Connor probably did not appeal to those voters. You have to earn people's vote.


This, OH-12 is bad news for Republicans.

Republicans face a tough November election.

[Nyvin]

Christ what a horrible performance! And in a district where our nominee did so well not too long ago. Damn, this is not good. We're gonna have to do much better than this in November. I can't believe that we couldn't take the 12th...I mean, my god...we couldn't win Murtha's old seat.

I think we need to reevaluate our prospects after this loss...maybe the Midwest and MidAtlantic is just not responding to our message.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_12th_congressional_district_special_election,_201)

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/026/832/jeongtweet.jpg

Who woulda thunk the Midwest would not respond to the message? Deplorables!

This behavior is REALLY not what a professional website forum should have as a moderator you know.  

[Devout Centrist]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

Wow, pretty decent swing compared to 2016. Not enough to win, of course, but that's the best Democratic performance there since...damn, I have no idea. That's a 7 and a half point swing when compared with 2016 and an 11 point swing when compared with 2008.

[Tartarus Sauce]

A couple more nail biting wins like that in significant right leaning districts and Republicans will win themselves into a minority position of the House.

While it would have been nice to flip it, this is another massive over performance by Democrats.

[Zaybay]

I hate to sound like this, but this may have been the optimal result for Ds.

They had a 15 point shift, which projects a large D wave, but they didnt win the seat they would likely not hold on to.

The Rs believe the Blue wave is now dead, and will have less voter turnout come NV.

This district, if it keeps its current results in NV, will project a modest to large victory for Corday, and many senate and house seats flipping.

Overall, great results for Ds, and possibly the best result possible.

[NOVA Green]

The provisional ballots are not gonna save O'Connor. People saying "it's over" ought to keep saying it as long as there's posters who believe there's a golden box of absentees waiting to be picked up in Franklin County.

Well considering there were only (58 TOTAL) Provisional Ballots in the final SoS certification of Franklin County back in '14 for OH CD-12, it's hard to see where the Giant pot of Gold is from underneath the Rainbow....

Still, one must certainly wonder how many votes fall into a "default Provisional" category before certification, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the final DEM numbers creep up ~ +200-300 D in Franklin by the time all of the votes are officially classified and certified....

Problem is we don't know how many, and considering the narrow PUB margin, it is a very real question that I haven't yet seen anyone knowledgeable discuss in terms of how these Provisional Votes are classified within the "Unofficial County Vote Numbers".

Still, it does appear the PUBs were able to squeak this through, but all we want is transparency when it comes to electoral voting reporting, especially with all of this crazy crap that the Russians have been up to in European and American Elections in recent Years.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Guys, those of us with enough common sense to put the dips[inks]ts on full ignore don't have to see any of their commentary - until you mindlessly quote it and break the system. Stop it.

[Zaybay]

Just a reminder that this seat was lost solely due to gerrymandering. Self righteous fools like Antonio would rather Dems toe their hands behind their backs

[Tekken_Guy]

It looks like turnout was lower here than in PA18. Moderates probably were the key here. Balderson slightly did better than Saccone did.

Also more ancestral Dems. Bush lost many areas of PA18 but won most of OH12.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I hate to sound like this, but this may have been the optimal result for Ds.

They had a 15 point shift, which projects a large D wave, but they didnt win the seat they would likely not hold on to.

The Rs believe the Blue wave is now dead, and will have less voter turnout come NV.

This district, if it keeps its current results in NV, will project a modest to large victory for Corday, and many senate and house seats flipping.

Overall, great results for Ds, and possibly the best result possible.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Winning the seat was the best result possible. But this was still a gangbusters performance considering how tough the political terrain was. If this is the type of results Republicans can expect around the country, they are boned in November.

[NOVA Green]

Balderson is soaring! 1700 vote lead.

It's going to fun watching all of you in horror as the returns come in in November. I've been where you are, hitting that wall after you run out of denial is harsh.

He's just trolling.

Sanchez and Krazen know Republicans are screwed in November. That's why they never post anything of substance anymore.

Did they ever?

[henster]

Rs already gloating all over twitter, already spinning it now like it was some grand victory. And then we have tweets like this from folks in the media.

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1027022103177035777

[IceSpear]

A couple more nail biting wins like that in significant right leaning districts and Republicans will win themselves into a minority position of the House.

While it would have been nice to flip it, this is another massive over performance by Democrats.

Political environment can change in 3 months. But if we assume it doesn't, about the only thing this shows is that 2018 isn't going to be an unimaginably yuge tidal wave.

[Zaybay]

Rs already gloating all over twitter, already spinning it now like it was some grand victory. And then we have tweets like this from folks in the media.

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1027022103177035777

yeah, this is what I was talking about. If this is what Rs hear until NV, then we may have a better shot.

[Adam Griffin]

Balderson's final margin narrows by 12 in the SoS count (NYT has the same count as I, but OH SOS has 20 extra votes for O'Connor & 8 for Balderson):

[IceSpear]

It looks like turnout was lower here than in PA18. Moderates probably were the key here. Balderson slightly did better than Saccone did.

Yeah, if you're going to point to any small event that made the difference, it was probably Kasich's endorsement.

[Cory]

So now we can deduce that Green Party voters are actual retards?

[Chief Justice Keef]

So now we can deduce that Green Party voters are actual retards?

The Green votes wouldn't have made a difference.

[ON Progressive]

So now we can deduce that Green Party voters are actual retards?

The Green votes wouldn't have made a difference.

Not only that, but anybody who would be willing to vote for a Green in a special election is a loyal Green voter anyway.