OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[new_patomic]

Ryan has been a popular Speaker, McConnell isn't

Ryan's approval rating was/is worse than Trumps.

[new_patomic]

Emerson's last poll for PA-18 did have Lamb up within the MOE of the eventual result.

On the other hand, it's still Emerson.

[new_patomic]

Everyone knows Democrats are allergic to rain.

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Hearing that it's very humid in Franklin County, which is almost as bad as rain. Not good.

Democrats also can't be seen out in the sun too, from what I've been told.

Going to be a bad night, for sure.

[new_patomic]

This is one twitter report I can get behind, at least

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1026962099833131008

[new_patomic]

Guys, whatever happens, I want to say that I'm not very satisfied with this election. We did not try our very best and we did not get the best candidate possible. I feel like a quality candidate like Andy Ginther would be figuratively skewering Balderson on a Dagestani kabob if he was our nominee.

Hey I got someone who agreed with me, regardless of outcome, I feel like we could have gotten a better candidate like ginther or that jay goypal dude. I feel like they would be ahead in the polls, and have a better operation than O'Connor.

I don't know enough about the candidates to know who might have done better here, but I do wish it hadn't waited until the last moment to get close.

Isn't that how it usually works though.

[new_patomic]

80-19 at least looks in line of what we'll need.

[new_patomic]

Deleware EV results for SoS site:

Troy Balderson (R) 3,438 39.15%
Danny O'Connor (D) 5,308 60.44%
Total Votes Cast   8,782      

[new_patomic]

So what are we thinking?

There's nothing to really think until we start getting results from votes cast today.

It would have been nicer for O'Conner to be up more, but that's true regardless. Depending on turnout and how badly he lost the EDV who knows.

[new_patomic]

We've got a single precinct reporting out of Morrow.

And seems it went Balderson 40 - 22.

Doom.

Absolute doom.

[new_patomic]

We've got a single precinct reporting out of Morrow.

And seems it went Balderson 40 - 22.

Doom.

Absolute doom.

Do which know what precinct so I can run the historical numbers and post a few graphs (Pretty Pretty Please!!!)?    

Their county website unfortunately doesn't seem to include any sort of map or extra data with the unofficial results.

[new_patomic]

I need someone to tell me who is doing better, who is overperforming and who is underperforming

Everyone, No One, Us.

[new_patomic]

Per SoS site


Troy Balderson (R) 20,167 42.59%
Danny O'Connor (D) 26,836 56.67%
Total Votes Cast   47,354
49/591 Reporting

[new_patomic]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

[new_patomic]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Wouldn't that mean the EV is less than 20% of the total vote?

That's not good news for O'Connor.

[new_patomic]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Isn't it high turnout that usually favors Democrats?

Connor's lead comes from the EDV, so less actual day voting would benefit him.

Unless you suppose he does unexpectedly well on the EDV.

But I wouldn't bet on that.

[new_patomic]

WEATHER DOES NOT HAVE A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ELECTION OUTCOMES. IF YOU DON'T VOTE BECAUSE OF RAIN OR HEAT, YOU WEREN'T GOING TO VOTE ANYWAY AND YOU WOULD HAVE FOUND ANOTHER EXCUSE.

As a Democrat I can confirm that the site of clouds causes economic anxiety.

[new_patomic]

Ohio and it's early vote are a cruel mistress.

[new_patomic]

I think provisionals are being over-estimated here.   If Balderson is winning by ~2k or so by the end of tonight he probably wins.

I think they'll only matter if Balderson is up by a few hundred votes, not anything a thousand or over.

[new_patomic]

The super delegates haven't even voted yet.

I'd say if one wanted to be really hopeful, the 7 remaining precincts could perhaps claw back the margin a few hundred votes to a point where provisional *might* matter if they're enough of them.

But that's really unlikely.