OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Oryxslayer]

Polls close shortly, giving this a bump to act as a discussion thread.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/994000922689855489

[Oryxslayer]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

Well, Cordray has always ran far ahead of Generic D in the Columbus Metro. Considering Clinton's Delaware margins, it isn't totally out of the picture that he ties/wins the county while still losing statewide.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember people, Ohio's early vote is historically VERY democratic. So much so that Ohio election night returns are divided into 3 phases: The Democratic dominated early vote, The Republican dominated rural/suburban day of vote, and The slow-counting cities which tend to be hard dem. Therefore, the good early voting numbers are not too out of line with expectations, and should be interpreted as only a single data point. 

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a potential theory why balderson isn't doing anything - he doesn't care whether he wins or loses. Whoever wins will be in congress for less then three months, at which point they go to a rematch in November. The district has a strong R PVI, and no ancestral Dem DNA, so he shouldn't lose with a regular electorate. A special electorate though right now favors the democrats by a large margin - so why bother contesting that? November should bring out more republicans, even if the environments still ends up favoring Dems.

Its a poor guess - O'Conner if he wins could end up gaining both notability and cash preventing a loss in November. But, its a theory.

[Oryxslayer]

Monmouth will have a poll of the race out tomorrow.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder to everyone here:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1026974171580968960

I suspect O'Conner will get out ahead, and then the results will narrow, with the only net O'Conner vote gains from E-Day coming from Franklin.

[Oryxslayer]

Final Update:



Through today, the last day of early voting. Democrats end with a 10.5 point edge in early vote vote partisanship (compared to their usual 20+ point deficit). I'll have more analysis tonight, but this is consistent with 1. a close race and 2. special election turnout of around 110-140k. Franklin Count has dropped quite a bit from their initial share of the early vote, but it is still far ahead of it's usual 32% of the electorate.

Quoting this so that we can see that O'Conner won others and some Reps in Franklin. Not surprising,  the others are probably filled with minorities in Franklin who never vote in the primary but do in the general.

[Oryxslayer]

Unrelated, but CNN updated their map wall graphics to nicer color scheme.

[Oryxslayer]

O'Conner wins Richland early vote, Balderson Morrow.

[Oryxslayer]

All we are missing from the Early Vote is Delaware - any bets on who wins it?

[Oryxslayer]

Morrow county is Blue on CNN's map...sign of things to come?

Edit - corrected itself to red

[Oryxslayer]

69 precincts in Franklin
33 in Licking
1 Muskigum
35 Richland
156 Delaware.

It is really going to be Delaware - the rest will cancel each other out.

[Oryxslayer]

Richland Dump, O'Conner barely ahead.

1 Muskigum
5 Richland
33 Licking

134 Delaware

69 franklin

[Oryxslayer]

Licking dump.

Balderson:

5 Precincts left in Richland
4 in Licking
1 in Muskigum

O'Conner:

69 Franklin


Swing:

121 Delaware
 

[Oryxslayer]

Site crashed. Anyway:

13 precincts left in Franklin

77 in Delaware

15% of precincts left.

[Oryxslayer]

1031 vote gap...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1027017630601957376