OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[IceSpear]

I get why Democrats in more conservative territory are disavowing Pelosi, but it kind of annoys me that Republicans are allowed to get away with marching in lockstep behind Ryan/McConnell no matter how Democratic their district/state is, even though some polls show them as even more unpopular than Pelosi. It just strikes me as buying into and surrendering against a GOP narrative, when you could instead use their own tactics against them.

In fact, the only time you see Republicans disavowing Ryan/McConnell is in primaries because they're deemed as Soros-funded globalist cocaine snorting RINOs, lol.

[IceSpear]

O'Connor's failed to capture the public imagination in the way past Special Election Democrats have. While this is, on paper, the most winnable special election yet, I am convinced O'Connor loses. He's just not doing it right. See: this ad. There are a lot of #resistance types in OH-12 that need activating to win, and O'Connor just isn't firing them up. I've got my biases, but am more convinced now than ever before that John Russell was a better candidate for the general election.

Doesn't help that the GOP is running good, mostly factual ads.

It's pretty hilarious seeing a Democrat running ads about how they're like John Kasich. Bizarro world just keeps getting more and more bizarre, lol.

Though I guess if there's any district to try that strategy it's this one. He apparently has a higher approval among Democrats than Republicans now.

[IceSpear]

Damn, OC is getting snippy, LOL.

[IceSpear]

The hot takes about how the House is now solid R if Republicans win this despite it being nowhere near the median district Dems would need are going to be annoying.

Anyway, John Kasich is a much better candidate than Jacky Rosen because of his old haircut. I randomly saw this on the Wiki article for the district, lol.

[IceSpear]

The hot takes about how the House is now solid R if Republicans win this despite it being nowhere near the median district Dems would need are going to be annoying.

Anyway, John Kasich is a much better candidate than Jacky Rosen because of his old haircut. I randomly saw this on the Wiki article for the district, lol.

Being serious, unlike my last post, I'm not sure about that.  If I recall correctly, while there were 68 U.S House districts in 2016 that the Democrats lost by less than 20% (that is the correct number) there were just 15 or 16 (or maybe 14) that they lost by less than 10%.  So, while this district was a huge win for Tiberi in 2016, both as a now open district, and as a reflection of the sort of district that the Democrats will need to win in November to retake the House (at least with a comfortable majority) I think the 'hot take' makes sense.

For what it's worth, at this point, I think the Democrats are potentially competitive in 63 of those 68 districts, but most people disagree with me in that they don't think the Democrats are competitive in most of the Texas districts.

Would they win this district if they were winning in a gigantic landslide? Probably. But go race by race for yourself and you can easily spot at least 40 easier targets.

Extrapolating too much from one House race is never a good idea anyway. If you extrapolated from just PA-12 in 2010 it would seem like Republicans would have no chance at winning the House. If you extrapolated from just AZ-08 this year you'd expect Republicans to lose over 100 seats.

[IceSpear]

A month before the election everyone thought Saccone would win comfortably and that Estes/Norman/Lesko would win in double digit blowouts. O'Connor may be an underdog, but anyone who wrote this race off considering the trend in other special elections must be a frequent hot stove toucher.

[IceSpear]

Will the media harass every Republican about whether they support Jordan for speaker like they do for Pelosi?

[IceSpear]

The Dems only need WI, MI, PA to the EC college. But, with 3 dozen GOP (36) house districts at stake, it makes FL and OH purple states and control of House and Senate at stake

OC, with all due respect, you do this way too much. This post is only very, very mildly germane to the thread topic (or maybe not at all?). This is about the OH-12 special election, not about vague pronouncement about what Democrats need in 2018 and 2020. Seriously, you keep repeating these tidbits that sometimes have nothing to do with the topic at hand and are quite honestly things everyone already knows anyway.

You're really gonna try?

[IceSpear]

Remember when many people thought Balderson was inevitable because of a poll a month before the election showing him up double digits?

This is what we call a teachable moment.

[IceSpear]

Remember when many people thought Balderson was inevitable because of a poll a month before the election showing him up double digits?

This is what we call a teachable moment.

I remember that and being told “Polls surely won’t tighten in two months like they did in PA-18”.

It's almost as if a mysterious force is pushing these races in a certain direction as election day gets closer and closer...I've never heard of such a thing! What could it POSSIBLY mean?!

Btw Heller will win because he's up by 1 point 3 months before the election.

[IceSpear]

It'll be a real heartbreaker if O'Connor narrowly loses thanks to Manchik (G-Moscow)

[IceSpear]

GOP in D I S A R R A Y

https://www.twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1025763229019058176

Wow, that was pathetic. The media would put this on constant loop if it was a Democrat literally running away when asked about Pelosi.

[IceSpear]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

I have nearly 25,000 posts on US Election Atlas dot org and I have no idea who the hell Sarah Jeong is. I doubt any more than 1% of the people in this district know or care who she is, much less will base their vote on it.

[IceSpear]

Question for y'all: looks like most people agree Balderson is the slimmest of favorites going into tomorrow. If Balderson wins, is O'Connor screwed in November? If O'Connor wins, does he become the favorite in November?

I think it depends on the margin. If it's very close either way, I'd still see it as a toss up in November.

[IceSpear]

Question for y'all: looks like most people agree Balderson is the slimmest of favorites going into tomorrow. If Balderson wins, is O'Connor screwed in November? If O'Connor wins, does he become the favorite in November?

It depends on the turnout. If this is a super low turnout election, then we’re headed for another tossup. If it’s more normal, Lean D. If Balderson wins, all-but Safe R.

Balderson winning by 1 point would not make the race safe R. For all we know, the political environment could be even better for Democrats in November than it is now. Critz did far better in the special election in 2010 than he did in the general election, where he only narrowly squeaked by.

[IceSpear]

Whether O'Connor wins or not, the fact it's a photo-finish in a district that should be an easy win for the republicans spells big trouble for them.

Morris's take:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1026318554671603718

It really would be but the Trump and Republican bragging (even though they have no right to brag with this somewhat pointless race being as close it might be) will be insufferable. Like Massguy said:

B-b-but the Red Wave!

If Republicans hold this ditrict: "Where's your "blue wave" libtards? HA HA HA HA"

The media will probably join in with the usual "WHERE IS THEIR MESSAGE?!" schtick.

Pat Tiberi won by 37 points, but the red wave is on the horizon if Balderson wins by 1 point.

Get ready for these hot takes if he wins, lol.

[IceSpear]

Bring on the anecdotal turnout and weather reports

Election day threads before the polls close is probably the worst content on Atlas, and that's saying something.

[IceSpear]

Bring on the anecdotal turnout and weather reports

Election day threads before the polls close is probably the worst content on Atlas, and that's saying something.

Blame LimoLiberal

Nah, it has always been that way. At least since I've been here.

Cherrypicking anecdotal turnout reports which don't mean a damn thing, hot takes about the weather which will rarely if ever actually change the result of an election, etc.

[IceSpear]

Everyone knows Democrats are allergic to rain.

If that was the case Seattle wouldn't be a D+80 city.

[IceSpear]

Not sounding good unfortunately https://mobile.twitter.com/JessicaWehrman/status/1026946024668053506

pls

[IceSpear]

It's funny if you go back and read the PA-18 election day thread how many times the thread consensus went from "Lambslide" to "Saccone has this" over and over again, lol.

[IceSpear]

Not sounding good unfortunately https://mobile.twitter.com/JessicaWehrman/status/1026946024668053506

Thank you for being an Atlas stereotype.

I hope O’Connor wins but you normally don’t hear something like this if it was going good for O’ Connor

Literally every single election has anecdotal turnout reports that are "good" for either side...

[IceSpear]

@re: marty's post on interest in special elections

I have a hard enough time keeping track of conversation on special election day, I'm not sure how I can deal with general election for a midterm. I've never done one of those on Atlas. In 2016, I mostly paid attention to the presidential race and only went over everything else after. Without a big race at the top, my focus is split among like a dozen key states with all kinds of races.

Worst yet, it's not a neutral year, and we know Democrats are probably to make up a lot of ground lost over the past 8 years, so there is going to be a lot to pay attention to.

Don't worry about it, Atlas usually crashes on election day anyway.

[IceSpear]

I'm begging folks here (including me) not to freak out over the early returns/early vote.

Good luck with that. It's hard enough getting people to remember that NoVa reports last.

[IceSpear]

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DEMS WILL GAIN 200+ SEATS IN NOVEMBER HOLY FUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC