OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (user search)
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 108907 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: December 15, 2017, 08:20:13 PM »
« edited: December 15, 2017, 08:22:58 PM by A Strange Reflection »
If Alabama should teach us anything, it's that there's no race we should ever concede without a fight.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2018, 04:06:32 AM »
Yeah, I wouldn't read too much in early voting numbers at this point. EV looked great for Democrats in both 2014 and 2016, and we all know how it ended.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2018, 10:27:50 AM »
« Edited: July 27, 2018, 10:33:30 AM by SHO MI YOWA BUREIV HAAT »
Do these figures include independent expenditures? That's always something to keep in mind in a post-CU world.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2018, 03:23:54 PM »
...strange.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2018, 03:43:31 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 27, 2018, 03:40:31 PM
Here is a potential theory why balderson isn't doing anything - he doesn't care whether he wins or loses. Whoever wins will be in congress for less then three months, at which point they go to a rematch in November. The district has a strong R PVI, and no ancestral Dem DNA, so he shouldn't lose with a regular electorate. A special electorate though right now favors the democrats by a large margin - so why bother contesting that? November should bring out more republicans, even if the environments still ends up favoring Dems.

Its a poor guess - O'Conner if he wins could end up gaining both notability and cash preventing a loss in November. But, its a theory.

If that's his strategy, it's an absolutely moronic one. It's going to be very hard to beat a Democratic incumbent in a climate like 2018.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2018, 03:17:45 PM »

Wouldn't that count as vote-buying? Cheesy
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2018, 12:58:42 PM »
Oh wow, this is looking good.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2018, 03:23:28 PM »
who the f**k is steve stivers
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2018, 04:50:56 PM »
EV getting a little too close for comfort now, isn't it?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2018, 06:27:04 PM »
Guys, the party registration numbers are based on the 2018 primary, not the 2016 one.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2018, 06:26:41 AM »
The Nevada results actually perfectly matched Ralston's predictions based on the early vote. Florida is still a puzzle, admittedly (as is NC to a lesser extent).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2018, 01:06:14 PM »
ayy lmao
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2018, 06:08:03 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 06, 2018, 12:49:26 AM
I have nearly 50,000 posts on US Election Atlas dot org and I have no idea who the hell Sarah Jeong is.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2018, 11:01:39 AM »
Democrats have overperformed in special elections by an average of 15 points or so. There's bound to be statistical noise around this average.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2018, 12:34:44 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on August 06, 2018, 12:08:09 PM
I don't even get why Republicans care so much about this (well, actually, I get it, but it's dumb). If there is going to be a wave, it doesn't matter if they save face in a couple special elections or not. Just because they manage to prevent a loss in OH-12 doesn't mean it's suddenly going to be good for them in November. And it doesn't mean Democrats aren't going to continue bringing in truckloads of cash via fundraising either. Yet every time we have had a special election, Republicans act like it is priority #1 to win it for [insert reasons for saving face]. They could have saved themselves a lot of money if they just let things play out on their own.

I mean that's all true, but couldn't you say the same about Democrats? One seat is not a lot, but it's still a seat.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2018, 05:59:49 PM »
Quote from: JG on August 06, 2018, 05:40:36 PM
Quote from: xīngkěrú on August 06, 2018, 05:36:27 PM
This is looking like it'll be very close. I think O'Connor could very well pull it off, but I'm going to say Balderson wins 49-48 as my final prediction, just so not to get my hopes up too much.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2018, 06:37:51 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 07, 2018, 05:53:54 AM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 07, 2018, 02:13:37 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 07, 2018, 02:09:01 AM
Go Danny !

Can't wait for the results. When are polls closing (Central European Time) ?

2.30am ?

I think 12:30 AM CET but don't count on it.

7:30 PM EDT, which is 1:30 AM CEST.

I trained myself for weeks so that I could stay up until 4am and see the results come in. I hope you guys appreciate my efforts.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2018, 01:09:03 PM »
538 has both 2012-based and 2016-based benchmarks, which I think is a great idea since many special elections have mirrored 2012 results more closely.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2018, 03:18:03 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on August 07, 2018, 03:07:17 PM
Quote from: marty on August 07, 2018, 02:34:36 PM
Hello everyone

First time visiting this forum in a while

I’ll keep it quick

1) have zero clue what will happen tonight

2) it’s tragic that one or 2 turd posters can just derail a thread like this

IKR
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2018, 05:29:32 PM »
We should really have a moratorium on all posts from noon of Election Day to when polls close.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2018, 05:33:15 PM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on August 07, 2018, 05:30:46 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 07, 2018, 05:28:28 PM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on August 07, 2018, 05:26:10 PM
I hope O’Connor wins but you normally don’t hear something like this if it was going good for O’ Connor

Literally every single election has anecdotal turnout reports that are "good" for either side...
Problem is we have hear nothing on Danny’s end. During Pa-18 or even Bama the threads were full of reports of high turnout in dem strongholds and GOP worry

There have been high turnout reports from Franklin County posted in this very thread...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2018, 05:57:43 PM »

That's a small sample from an anonymous rumor, of course, but if this is true it doesn't seem like the kind of margin Republicans need to pull out, does it?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #22 on: August 07, 2018, 06:30:18 PM »
welp, here we go
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #23 on: August 07, 2018, 07:10:08 PM »
Well, we have literally one precinct reporting on ED vote...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2018, 07:24:36 PM »
We're finally getting some ED vote, and O'Connor's lead has receded to 24 points (but all the precincts reporting are from outlying Republican counties).
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