OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[krazen1211]

Just a reminder that this seat was lost solely due to gerrymandering. Self righteous fools like Antonio would rather Dems toe their hands behind their backs

[IceSpear]

So now we can deduce that Green Party voters are actual retards?

The Green votes wouldn't have made a difference.

They still could have, depending on provisionals.

[Adam Griffin]

The Green votes could have made the difference between a recount and no recount, and generally, recounts discover that Democratic votes are under-reported; that combined with provisionals could have made a difference, but we'll never know.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Impressive result, we are winning the house this fall.

[Chief Justice Keef]

So now we can deduce that Green Party voters are actual retards?

The Green votes wouldn't have made a difference.

Not only that, but anybody who would be willing to vote for a Green in a special election is a loyal Green voter anyway.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just stay off of twitter. We all know there are going to be brain dead Republicans trying their best to shoo off chatter of a blue wave. Let them get washed away in November. Let their arrogance make their losses hurt.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Just stay off of twitter. We all know there are going to be brain dead Republicans trying their best to shoo off chatter of a blue wave. Let them get washed away in November. Let their arrogance make their losses hurt.

You're right, but they're still a canker sore in my mouth that just won't go away.

[Gass3268]

This is enough to maybe go to the recount zone:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1027025172656738307

[Tartarus Sauce]

A couple more nail biting wins like that in significant right leaning districts and Republicans will win themselves into a minority position of the House.

While it would have been nice to flip it, this is another massive over performance by Democrats.

Political environment can change in 3 months. But if we assume it doesn't, about the only thing this shows is that 2018 isn't going to be an unimaginably yuge tidal wave.

I’d bet it changing over not changing, that seems to be the norm in wave years. But even if doesn’t, that’s hardly good news for Republicans. Most of the argument is really over a matter of severity. Will it be a catastrophically bad or apocalyptically bad midterms for Republicans? Or do they somehow manage to just tone it down to really bad?

Republicans certainly have no reason to gloat over this near loss. Plus I doubt the predictive power for forecasting November would have been noticeably different with a squeaker O’Connor win either. What this really changes the most is narrative, which is mostly white noise as far as substance is concerned.

[mds32]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

Wow, pretty decent swing compared to 2016. Not enough to win, of course, but that's the best Democratic performance there since...damn, I have no idea. That's a 7 and a half point swing when compared with 2016 and an 11 point swing when compared with 2008.

Actually the GOP vote percentage stayed relative to 2016.

Trump took about 54.5%. Balderson took 53.96%. What changed was that less people voted for 3rd party candidates.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, I am throughly impressed. And you know it is hard to impress me, who y'all think for some reason am a Limo 2.0. This and you all have convinced me of the house flipping this fall. Good on O'Connor for a decent run. This was winnable, but still a decent effort by a mediocre candidate. Heavily outspent too, this was no easy cakewalk, and only bodes well for this fall.

[Nyvin]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

Wow, pretty decent swing compared to 2016. Not enough to win, of course, but that's the best Democratic performance there since...damn, I have no idea. That's a 7 and a half point swing when compared with 2016 and an 11 point swing when compared with 2008.

Actually the GOP vote percentage stayed relative to 2016.

Trump took about 54.5%. Balderson took 53.96%. What changed was that less people voted for 3rd party candidates.

Are you suggesting the Democrats got 100% of the libertarian vote?

[IceSpear]

A couple more nail biting wins like that in significant right leaning districts and Republicans will win themselves into a minority position of the House.

While it would have been nice to flip it, this is another massive over performance by Democrats.

Political environment can change in 3 months. But if we assume it doesn't, about the only thing this shows is that 2018 isn't going to be an unimaginably yuge tidal wave.

I’d bet it changing over not changing, that seems to be the norm in wave years. But even if it doesn’t, you’re talking about a seat shift in the, oh let’s say the 40s or possibly even 50s instead of in the 70s or 80s. I think most would be content with that. Plus, Republicans could potentially lose even more seats in 2020. Most of the argument is really over a matter of severity. Will it be a catastrophically bad or apocalyptically bad midterms for Republicans? Or do they somehow manage to just tone it down to really bad?

Republicans certainly have no reason to gloat over this near loss. Plus I doubt the predictive power for forecasting November would have been noticeably different with a squeaker O’Connor win either. What this really changes the most is narrative, which is mostly white noise as far as substance is concerned.

Yep, agreed.

[Zaybay]

Guys, I am throughly impressed. And you know it is hard to impress me, who y'all think for some reason am a Limo 2.0. This and you all have convinced me of the house flipping this fall. Good on O'Connor for a decent run. This was winnable, but still a decent effort by a mediocre candidate. Heavily outspent too, this was no easy cakewalk, and only bodes well for this fall.

....Is everything alright Bagel? I think you may need to lie down.

[BudgieForce]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

Wow, pretty decent swing compared to 2016. Not enough to win, of course, but that's the best Democratic performance there since...damn, I have no idea. That's a 7 and a half point swing when compared with 2016 and an 11 point swing when compared with 2008.

Actually the GOP vote percentage stayed relative to 2016.

Trump took about 54.5%. Balderson took 53.96%. What changed was that less people voted for 3rd party candidates.

I guess Hillary really was that toxic in the midwest.

[NOVA Green]

O'Connor live on Cable News already building the groundwork for November....

Meanwhile we have an old "Fighting Irish Anthem"

Wolfe Tones:

You'll never beat the Irish:

In eleven sixty-seven, they came to ireland on the make
They were followed by invasions and by conquests in their wake
The kings and queens of england made the land a battleground
They took the land by fraud, defeat; poison, murder and deceit!

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

Then by the fifteenth century they held precariously to the pale
The invaders were more irish than the irish, that's the tale
A fat greedy king (called henry)'s dick was bigger than his brain
Forced a reformation- confiscating usurpation!

You'll never beat the irish, no matter what you do
You can put us down and keep us out, but we'll come back again
You know we are the fighting irish and we'll fight until the end
You know, you should have known: You'll never beat the irish

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

The virgin queen, elizabeth, brought more turmoil to our land
She decimated munster, scorched the earth and all at hand
Then james the first and charles the mad brought out other greedy bands
They took the land of ulster, killed their chieftains- poisoned, plundered!

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

And by defective titles, they cheated connaught and the west

ADVERTISING

Across the seventeenth century from war we had no rest
For the curse of cromwell plagued the land, 'til our towns were red with blood
Then the battle of the boyne was fought by william, james and foreign hoards

You'll never beat the irish, no matter what you do
You can put us down and keep us out, but we'll come back again
You know we are the fighting irish and we'll fight until the end
You know, you should have known: You'll never beat the irish

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

At the siege of limerick, patrick sarsfield won the day
But the irish they were cheated when his army went away
Queen ann and her successors forced on us those penal laws
Denying the rights and liberty of religion, land, and property!

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

Then came the three mad georges and they had us nearly fooled
They couldn't speak the lingo of the countries that they ruled
Puppets of the ascendancy they kept the irish down
But the rebels and the whiteboys hard their army on the run!

You'll never beat the irish, no matter what you do
You can put us down and keep us out, but we'll come back again
You know we are the fighting irish and we'll fight until the end
You know, you should have known: You'll never beat the irish

The famine queen, victoria came to rule us by and by
She was on the throne so bloody long, we thought she'd never die!
She presided over hunger, famine, poverty, and disease
She drove the people from their home to their death or to the land beyond the sea!

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

All across the 19th century, fought oppression with great zeal
O'connell spoke his blarney for emancipation and repeal
Young ireland and the fenians tried the dynamite and the gun
Parnell, the men of sixteen died, then michael collins had them on the run!

You'll never beat the irish, no matter what you do
You can put us down and keep us out, but we'll come back again
You know we are the fighting irish and we'll fight until the end
You know, you should have known: You'll never beat the irish

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

In 1922 well they divided up our land
Six counties held by england, it was all they could command
Against the wishes of the majority of the people of our land
They drew a dorder through our country through town and home and mountains

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

Then the country was engulfed into a bloody civil war
Between those against the treaty and those who voted for
George the iv, he opend parliament for the stalled in the north
While the rest were building ireland from the ruined colonial lashes

You'll never beat the irish, no matter what you do
You can put us down and keep us out, but we'll come back again
You know we are the fighting irish and we'll fight until the end
You know, you should have known: You'll never beat the irish

Then edward, george, and elizabeth looked after ireland's fate
They watched discrimination grow in a gerrymandered state
Homes and churches burnt while the orange power did grew
Discrimination bigotry in housing jobs and liberties

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

From the ashes of the past, the phoniex did emerge
A new declared republic, on the world it did converge
The search for peace prosperity and unity in our land
We too are locked in europe, till they made their peace agreement

You'll never beat the irish, no matter what you do
You can put us down and keep us out, but we'll come back again
You know we are the fighting irish and we'll fight until the end
You know, you should have known: You'll never beat the irish

Murder, plunder, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Cheating, stealing, diddly-idel-day
Ducking, diving, faugh a ballagh, clear the way
Diddly-aidel-doh, diddly-aidel-day

I will need to run the precinct numbers for Franklin County and elsewhere within CD-12, but many of these national observers with DEM and REP leanings appear to be underestimating the swings among Irish-American Republican leaning voters within the Suburbs of Columbus against the traditional WASP and German Protestant Political Establishment which has dominated Politics within Metro Columbus for over a Century.....

Danny O'Connor is running again in November and we'll need to take a deeper dive into voter turnout and swings by Municipality....

We didn't see the massive swings from Obama '08/'12 > Trump '16 voters in Licking County back to the fold, which I indicated might be the case from the EV numbers....

Still these voters are out there, and how many of them turned out to vote in this Special Election, and how many sat on the sidelines rather than Vote against the President, even although they disapprove of his performance?

[Zaybay]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

Wow, pretty decent swing compared to 2016. Not enough to win, of course, but that's the best Democratic performance there since...damn, I have no idea. That's a 7 and a half point swing when compared with 2016 and an 11 point swing when compared with 2008.

Actually the GOP vote percentage stayed relative to 2016.

Trump took about 54.5%. Balderson took 53.96%. What changed was that less people voted for 3rd party candidates.

Balderson took 50.2%, and this is an ancestrally R district

[Strudelcutie4427]

Just stay off of twitter. We all know there are going to be brain dead Republicans trying their best to shoo off chatter of a blue wave. Let them get washed away in November. Let their arrogance make their losses hurt.

You're right, but they're still a canker sore in my mouth that just won't go away.

If thats true then Democrats are cold sores. Much much worse

[NOVA Green]

Just saw on MSNBC 3.5k Provo Votes in Franklin County!!!!!

Is it legit???

[Devout Centrist]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

Wow, pretty decent swing compared to 2016. Not enough to win, of course, but that's the best Democratic performance there since...damn, I have no idea. That's a 7 and a half point swing when compared with 2016 and an 11 point swing when compared with 2008.

Actually the GOP vote percentage stayed relative to 2016.

Trump took about 54.5%. Balderson took 53.96%. What changed was that less people voted for 3rd party candidates.

Yes, but Trump underperformed Romney and McCain. Plus, this result would mean most people who voted third party back in 2016 would favor Democrats.

Still only one result, but something to consider.

[john cage bubblegum]

It looks like one of the major keys for Balderson's narrow win was really getting a huge margin out of his home county.  Just looking at the 2016 presidential margin, O'Connor more or less hit his benchmarks in the rural counties, with the significant exception of Muskingum. 

Now, I imagine that the O'Connor campaign was expecting this to some degree, and they probably hoped for a slightly better margin in Franklin and Delaware.

[Devout Centrist]

Just saw on MSNBC 3.5k Provo Votes in Franklin County!!!!!

Is it legit???

No, that's the district wide number. Franklin County is closer to 1,000 provisional ballots and another 1,000 outstanding absentees

[Nyvin]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

Wow, pretty decent swing compared to 2016. Not enough to win, of course, but that's the best Democratic performance there since...damn, I have no idea. That's a 7 and a half point swing when compared with 2016 and an 11 point swing when compared with 2008.

Actually the GOP vote percentage stayed relative to 2016.

Trump took about 54.5%. Balderson took 53.96%. What changed was that less people voted for 3rd party candidates.

Balderson took 50.2%, and this is an ancestrally R district

He means Delaware county,  which in 2016 Hillary got 38.69% of the vote to O'Connor's 45.65%.

[Zaybay]

Just saw on MSNBC 3.5k Provo Votes in Franklin County!!!!!

Is it legit???

Havent heard of that, but that would be pretty cool if the race flipped after everyone thought it was over

[BudgieForce]

Just saw on MSNBC 3.5k Provo Votes in Franklin County!!!!!

Is it legit???

I hope they get counted soon, it's getting late.