OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Tender Branson]

Licking has reported their final results and Balderson gained a net 240 votes:

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https://eu.newarkadvocate.com/story/news/2018/08/24/licking-county-board-elections-certifies-special-election-results/1082975002

Balderson now leads by 2.206 votes (with only Franklin County left to report).

[Tender Branson]

The AP has finally called the race for Balderson:

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1033042839654084608

https://apnews.com/8494b01240ce4c108f15d55b2237199c/Ohio-state-senator-retains-GOP-hold-on-open-US-House-seat

[2016]

The AP has finally called the race for Balderson:

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1033042839654084608

https://apnews.com/8494b01240ce4c108f15d55b2237199c/Ohio-state-senator-retains-GOP-hold-on-open-US-House-seat

Final margin 1.680 Votes.

[Tender Branson]

The FINAL results:

104.328 - Troy Balderson (R) - 50.12%
102.648 - Danny O'Connor (D) - 49.32%
    1.165 - Joe Manchik (G) - 0.56%

Balderson wins by 1.680 votes, or 0.8%.

(64 under-votes, => invalid votes)

http://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/public/documents/PDF/4230374C-0632-9D47-F1EA34E2FB6BDCDA.pdf

[IceSpear]

At least the crappy Green Party didn't end up being a spoiler again.

[Tender Branson]

Results of absentee/provisional ballots only, which were added after election day:

2.556 - Troy Balderson (R) - 50.80%
2.440 - Danny O'Connor (D) - 48.49%
     36 - Joe Manchik (G) - 0.71%

Balderson with a net gain of 116 votes.

He won them by 2.3 points, slightly better than his election day results.

[Badger]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

This wasn't a low turnout special. The turnout was barely lower than 2014.

Indeed it was, and that doesn't bode well for O'Connor, since turnout in Franklin was nearly maxed out while rural, largely Republican turnout remained low.

Republican turnout can stay flat in November too. Generally speaking, Trump is depressing Republican turnout nationally. And vice-versa for Democrats.

[Tender Branson]

The FINAL results:

104.328 - Troy Balderson (R) - 50.12%
102.648 - Danny O'Connor (D) - 49.32%
    1.165 - Joe Manchik (G) - 0.56%

Balderson wins by 1.680 votes, or 0.8%.

(64 under-votes, => invalid votes)

http://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/public/documents/PDF/4230374C-0632-9D47-F1EA34E2FB6BDCDA.pdf

The bad thing now is: all of the media today is now declaring "Republican wins special election." or "Republican defends seat in OH."

... but only 1% of voters are aware of the HUGE swing to the Democrats in this election, which is the actual important story behind it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

O'Connor will take the win in NOV, like I said, DeWine is not very popular and Sherrod Brown is popular, in a GOP leaning district, O'Connor can have Brown's coattails.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, we tried.