PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ctherainbow]

Good Politico article about Fetterman and his campaign: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/04/16/john-fetterman-profile-2022-senate-politics-pennsylvania-481259

I think it's a pretty fair assessment of Fetterman's strengths and weaknesses as a candidate. The points about Fetterman's weak relationships with progressive groups is an interesting one, and one I can attest to, even as a supporter. A few weeks ago, there an organizing meeting for Our Revolution PA which I was a part of. Larry Krasner gave a quick speech, and Malcolm Kenyatta and another Senate candidate named Alex Khalil were both in the Zoom call live (Kenyatta gave a very good speech). But Fetterman wasn't there in-person, he only had a quick pre-recorded message. It isn't a big deal for me, but it did seem like Kenyatta cared a lot more about connecting with activists than Fetterman.

I’m in a groupchat with the organizers of that call(honestly if you join the weekly OR PA organizing meetings, I’ve probably met you), and Fetterman was supposed to be there live.  He pissed a lot of people off by bailing out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know how great a candidate Fetterman is where are polls, especially the primary and they keep polling NH

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I can’t wait for the hideous fallout if democrats loose this election.

[SnowLabrador]

Fetterman will lose the general election.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I hope Dean stays out of the race, I don’t think she has the political chops to handle a highly competitive Senate GE (especially if it’s not a Democratic-leaning national environment) and she was one of the less charismatic impeachment managers.

But then Houlahan is screwed in redistricting

[S019]

I hope Dean stays out of the race, I don’t think she has the political chops to handle a highly competitive Senate GE (especially if it’s not a Democratic-leaning national environment) and she was one of the less charismatic impeachment managers.

But then Houlahan is screwed in redistricting

not screwed, such a seat would have been very close in 2016 but probably voted for Biden by 4 or so points given how Chester moved like 7 pts left. It'd be a tossup, probably, but she'd probably lose, if this midterm follows past midterm patterns.

[Blair]

what has Fetterman done that is pissing people off/getting people worried?

[Meatball Ron]

Good Politico article about Fetterman and his campaign: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/04/16/john-fetterman-profile-2022-senate-politics-pennsylvania-481259

I think it's a pretty fair assessment of Fetterman's strengths and weaknesses as a candidate. The points about Fetterman's weak relationships with progressive groups is an interesting one, and one I can attest to, even as a supporter. A few weeks ago, there an organizing meeting for Our Revolution PA which I was a part of. Larry Krasner gave a quick speech, and Malcolm Kenyatta and another Senate candidate named Alex Khalil were both in the Zoom call live (Kenyatta gave a very good speech). But Fetterman wasn't there in-person, he only had a quick pre-recorded message. It isn't a big deal for me, but it did seem like Kenyatta cared a lot more about connecting with activists than Fetterman.

The article is mostly good but I don't think it spends nearly enough time on the jogger incident - a couple quick mentions but should have been more of a focus. I don't think this is going away this time - establishment Dems, especially black people, that I've talked to in PA (or followed on social media) are really angry about how he's responded and failed to apologize or take any accountability. I understand it's complex, some think it's a non-issue b/c Miyares endorsed him (while maintaining that he lied), or some will point to his reelections in Braddock after the incident (extremely low voter turnout). One way or another, it should be covered in more detail.

[S019]

what has Fetterman done that is pissing people off/getting people worried?

Few things for me, the first is the whole chasing a black person with a gun, the second is that he's never actually run in a partisan election and only won the Democratic primary since a bunch of SEPA candidates split the vote, the third is my worry that some of his more left wing views might alienate moderate Romney/Clinton voters in the PA suburbs who we need to win this race, and the fourth is that this rate will be decided in the SEPA Collars, so I'd rather our candidate have their geographic base of support from there or Philadelphia. Most people are generally only upset about one or two, I believe.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I hope Dean stays out of the race, I don’t think she has the political chops to handle a highly competitive Senate GE (especially if it’s not a Democratic-leaning national environment) and she was one of the less charismatic impeachment managers.

But then Houlahan is screwed in redistricting

I think she’ll run for Senate.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Urgent update: the Fettermans were in Lancaster today and I just drove around the city for 45 minutes trying to find them but was unsuccessful. This concludes this urgent update.

[Not Me, Us]

Urgent update: the Fettermans were in Lancaster today and I just drove around the city for 45 minutes trying to find them but was unsuccessful. This concludes this urgent update.

They were? If I weren't in DC right now I might've done the same thing.

[ctherainbow]

Urgent update: the Fettermans were in Lancaster today and I just drove around the city for 45 minutes trying to find them but was unsuccessful. This concludes this urgent update.

Fetterman avoiding a progressive activist AGAIN?  Tsk, tsk.  He’s sunk.   

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Urgent update: the Fettermans were in Lancaster today and I just drove around the city for 45 minutes trying to find them but was unsuccessful. This concludes this urgent update.

I have received intel that they will be in Kutztown tomorrow and I’ll probably drive up to go meet them lol

And by “intel” I mean I dm’d the Second Lady on Twitter and she told me

[Suburbia]

I can’t wait for the hideous fallout if democrats loose this election.

Why, other than Fetterman pulling a gun on a Black jogger, because he is a white male and he appeals to the WWC in Middle Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh suburbs?

The Dems look foolish with the "should we nominate the white guy or the person of color, or etc." Identity politics shouldn't be the No. 1 criteria.....

[LostFellow]

I don't know much about the politics of PA, nor am I particularly invested in this race, but I get the feel that the punditry is once again focusing on ideology, policy views, and "candidate qualities" way too much, similar to the Democratic presidential primary in 2020.

Something I noticed during the 2020 pres primaries was that Biden was really the only candidate who emphasized the non-policy quality of "being able to get things done." And despite having like zero activist support, Biden's hold with older Black voters in the deep south due to the reason of being able to get things done (who in the primary exit polls were actually more in favor of policies like Medicare for All) got him the nomination.

I think that perhaps one of the most overrated things is being in tune with the myriad of activist groups that exist, so that angle on Fetterman seems incredibly overrated, since most voters really don't care about these things. I think the more valid angle of attack would be Fetterman's demonstrated poor ability to form legislative coalitions, but I think Fetterman will always have a high floor from his focus on the non-policy perspective of "having gotten things done  (e.g. criminal justice) while Lt Gov."

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I can’t wait for the hideous fallout if democrats loose this election.

Why, other than Fetterman pulling a gun on a Black jogger, because he is a white male and he appeals to the WWC in Middle Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh suburbs?

The Dems look foolish with the "should we nominate the white guy or the person of color, or etc." Identity politics shouldn't be the No. 1 criteria.....

Kenyatta win the nomination and looses
"This is what the democratic party gets for nominated a gay black leftist!!!! Burn the progressive branch!"

Fetterman wins the nomination looses
"See!! The neoliberal (!?) old generic "woke" establishment white guy shtick cost us a seat again! Burn the establishment wing!"

both claims are incredible overgeneralizations but I could see something similar being thrown around

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ds are favs in WI, PA and NH

The state that is worrisome is GA

[Meatball Ron]

I can’t wait for the hideous fallout if democrats loose this election.

Why, other than Fetterman pulling a gun on a Black jogger, because he is a white male and he appeals to the WWC in Middle Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh suburbs?

The Dems look foolish with the "should we nominate the white guy or the person of color, or etc." Identity politics shouldn't be the No. 1 criteria.....

Kenyatta win the nomination and looses
"This is what the democratic party gets for nominated a gay black leftist!!!! Burn the progressive branch!"

Fetterman wins the nomination looses
"See!! The neoliberal (!?) old generic "woke" establishment white guy shtick cost us a seat again! Burn the establishment wing!"

both claims are incredible overgeneralizations but I could see something similar being thrown around

Fetterman isn't establishment though - he's also positioning himself as part of the progressive wing (admittedly, with a blind spot on environmental issues), and in his past campaigns he's always been an insurgent candidate / he has poor relationships with party leadership. The establishment mantle would be held by whomever of Dean / Houlahan / Lamb runs; Arkoosh is also running as a more typical establishment candidate but not sure how much of a player she'll be.

As for the general election liability question - I agree Fetterman is a huge one. Not because he's "establishment" or "leftist" (or because he's white, obviously), but because he's trying to appeal to a group of voters (Obama-Trump WWC) that is largely gone for the party, while taking positions / stylizing himself in such a way that could alienate the more important demos (Philly-area POC + suburban voters). Not saying those voters won't like him by and large, but if their turnout is down even a little, or even a small portion swings against him, that's game over in this extremely close state.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Found him!

https://twitter.com/moshxlyfe/status/1383451953028472840?s=21

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Too many people in the race, Fetterman is gonna win based on splitting the vote in Philly

This is the Marquee race of this Election, if D's lose this race it's over, but in a 3.5 D they wont

Even in Philly I think he'll get respectable numbers. So yeah, I don't want to jinx it (because he is one of my two favorite candidates along with Charles Booker) but I do think he probably has it in the bag. I also think he'd be the favorite in the general, winning with Biden's map and slightly cutting into Republican margins in rural PA.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I can’t wait for the hideous fallout if democrats loose this election.

Why, other than Fetterman pulling a gun on a Black jogger, because he is a white male and he appeals to the WWC in Middle Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh suburbs?

The Dems look foolish with the "should we nominate the white guy or the person of color, or etc." Identity politics shouldn't be the No. 1 criteria.....

Kenyatta win the nomination and looses
"This is what the democratic party gets for nominated a gay black leftist!!!! Burn the progressive branch!"

Fetterman wins the nomination looses
"See!! The neoliberal (!?) old generic "woke" establishment white guy shtick cost us a seat again! Burn the establishment wing!"

both claims are incredible overgeneralizations but I could see something similar being thrown around

Fetterman isn't establishment though - he's also positioning himself as part of the progressive wing (admittedly, with a blind spot on environmental issues), and in his past campaigns he's always been an insurgent candidate / he has poor relationships with party leadership. The establishment mantle would be held by whomever of Dean / Houlahan / Lamb runs; Arkoosh is also running as a more typical establishment candidate but not sure how much of a player she'll be.

As for the general election liability question - I agree Fetterman is a huge one. Not because he's "establishment" or "leftist" (or because he's white, obviously), but because he's trying to appeal to a group of voters (Obama-Trump WWC) that is largely gone for the party, while taking positions / stylizing himself in such a way that could alienate the more important demos (Philly-area POC + suburban voters). Not saying those voters won't like him by and large, but if their turnout is down even a little, or even a small portion swings against him, that's game over in this extremely close state.

I don't think how he stylizes himself would be a turnoff to working class POC voters. One thing that I found annoying about the politico piece was the baked in assumption that suburban white voters are generally looking for the same thing in a candidate as black or hispanic voters. The jogger incident may cost him black support and understandably but otherwise I don't think that his blue collar populist appeal would be a turnoff to working class voters of any race.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I can’t wait for the hideous fallout if democrats loose this election.

Why, other than Fetterman pulling a gun on a Black jogger, because he is a white male and he appeals to the WWC in Middle Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh suburbs?

The Dems look foolish with the "should we nominate the white guy or the person of color, or etc." Identity politics shouldn't be the No. 1 criteria.....

Kenyatta win the nomination and looses
"This is what the democratic party gets for nominated a gay black leftist!!!! Burn the progressive branch!"

Fetterman wins the nomination looses
"See!! The neoliberal (!?) old generic "woke" establishment white guy shtick cost us a seat again! Burn the establishment wing!"

both claims are incredible overgeneralizations but I could see something similar being thrown around

Fetterman isn't establishment though - he's also positioning himself as part of the progressive wing (admittedly, with a blind spot on environmental issues), and in his past campaigns he's always been an insurgent candidate / he has poor relationships with party leadership. The establishment mantle would be held by whomever of Dean / Houlahan / Lamb runs; Arkoosh is also running as a more typical establishment candidate but not sure how much of a player she'll be.

As for the general election liability question - I agree Fetterman is a huge one. Not because he's "establishment" or "leftist" (or because he's white, obviously), but because he's trying to appeal to a group of voters (Obama-Trump WWC) that is largely gone for the party, while taking positions / stylizing himself in such a way that could alienate the more important demos (Philly-area POC + suburban voters). Not saying those voters won't like him by and large, but if their turnout is down even a little, or even a small portion swings against him, that's game over in this extremely close state.

I didn’t claim they were reasonable claims, but democrats are experts at yelling at each other when they loose, look at the aftermath of the 2020 and 2018 senate, and the 2020 house elections. Right or wrong it’s something they always do, and if it costs us a senate seat or even the balance of the senate you’re gonna see people making a lot of baseless anger induced claims

[prestructuralist]

I think Fetterman's support for legalizing marijuana should help him a lot. While medicare for all and such is also quite popular I can't think of a policy proposal as unifying of all demographics as the weed issue. I'm not saying it will be a ridiculous landslide but as long as Democrats remember midterms exist he should be in a pretty good position.

[Spectator]

Fetterman seems to be the kind of person Democrats naively think can win back a lot of Obama/Trump voters based on shallow things like his physical appearance and “populist overtures.” It seems a bit disingenuous if you ask me, and voters aren’t stupid enough to fall for that, with some exceptions.