Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Today Pedro Sánchez presented his new Deputy PMs. He bragged about his being the only cabinet in the world with four female Deputy PMs (incidentally, also the only cabinet in the world with four deputy PMs of any gender) and pledged that the government will finish its term and remain in place until 2023.

Nadia Calviño (independent PSOE), Economy minister, is promoted to Iglesias’s former post as second deputy PM, while Yolanda Díaz (UP), Labour minister, replaces Calviño in turn and becomes third deputy PM. They will be sworn in tomorrow, along with Ione Belarra (UP), the new Social Rights minister.

Pablo Iglesias marked his final day in office with a confrontation in the streets with a group of neo-nazis. Nothing too serious, Igesias and his entourage chanted “Yes we can” at the group while they chanted back “Castes (elites) out of our neighborhood”, and that was that.

With respects to the Madrid regional election, socialist candidate Ángel Gabilondo continues to double down on his Moderate Hero rhetoric. In addition to insisting that he wants to govern with Más Madrid and C’s rather than with Podemos, he has made a pledge to not raise taxes. Sort of a kinder, gentler left.

Ayuso, of course, didn’t read his lips, and claims that every Madrilenian will pay 2.000€ more in taxes if the left wins. In contrast, she plans to decrease the already low levels of taxation in Madrid. This approach seems to be popular according to polling, which continues to suggest that the regional president is headed for a solid victory, with around 40% of the vote.

[Zinneke]

Madrid Ens Roba redux

[Former President tack50]

I am liking Gabilondo's campaign quite a bit, given the big confrontation between Ayuso and Iglesias. Makes for a nice change of pace that will sadly be ignored

snippity snip

I've been wondering about something kind of related to this. Spain seems to have a system where right does better with middle and upper class even though it's based on the old-fashioned principle of "God, King and Country". Is there a significant disconnect between voters and party elites or is your typical Madileño suburbanite as reactionary as they seem? If so, is it just on the issue of national unity/Catalonia, or does it extend to "social issues"?

To be fair, I do think that the average Spanish professional that formerly voted Cs is genuinely concerned with at least the final 2/3 of "God, King and Country". I have absolutely no doubts that the kind of young professional that once voted Cs and now went back home to PP (with a Vox minority) while not really religious at all; is definitely a monarchist and a strong supporter of Spanish unity.

As to whether it extends to "social issues", well it depends on the exact social issue. Something like say, criminalizing abortion again or being against gay marriage is incredibly unpopular nationwide and definitely underwater among this crowd as well, especially given that they are probably more socially liberal "on the issues".

If you consider the monarchy or Catalonia social issues though; they are staunchly conservative; just as much as you would expect them to be.

I do think that the average suburbanite is either all over the place, or at least undecided on other social issues like that though; both in terms of social liberalism (I would not be too surprised if these suburbanites were in favour of marijuana legalization, or something like surrogate motherhood); and in terms of social conservatism (Charter schools generally perform better than public ones so I would not be surprised at all if these suburbanites supported them; and there is definitely a libertarian argument to be made for Vox's "Parental PIN" which allows kids whose parents don't approve to skip lessons on say, LGBT stuff)

What really motivates this kind of voter (other than the Catalan issue perhaps, as well as finding PP too corrupt to vote for) is economic issues; with them wanting big tax cuts and what not.

In terms of urban and suburban conservatives to be honest I can think of basically 3 different kinds of heavily right wing urban areas, coming in 3 flavours:

>"Old money" urban areas, basically close to the city centre in upper class 19th century expansions (example: Madrid's Salamanca neighbourhood)
>New suburban developments, with lots of young professionals (example: Much of Northern Madrid, like for example Las Tablas)
>Suburban developments for the super rich (example: The towns immediately to the west of Madrid: Las Rozas, Majadahonda, etc)

If I had to guess I imagine the 1st would be the most socially conservative and religious of the bunch, with the 2nd being the most secularized and progressive "on the issues".

[Velasco]

I do think that the average suburbanite is either all over the place, or at least undecided on other social issues like that though; both in terms of social liberalism (I would not be too surprised if these suburbanites were in favour of marijuana legalization, or something like surrogate motherhood); and in terms of social conservatism (Charter schools generally perform better than public ones so I would not be surprised at all if these suburbanites supported them; and there is definitely a libertarian argument to be made for Vox's "Parental PIN" which allows kids whose parents don't approve to skip lessons on say, LGBT stuff)

You mention some interesting issues, which are likely to be endorsed by most suburbanites.

1) Cs supported marijuana legalization and surrogacy. In terms of "social liberalism" the former is also endorsed by Podemos, but renting wombs is regarded an exploitative practice by most of the left and the feminist movement.

2) Charter schools play with advantage with regard the public school system, as they have a double funding: public money and  "voluntary" contributions from parents. Better funding is likely to have an impact on performance.  I think it's important to clarify this point when discussing which school system is better or the fairness of public voucher systems. But yes, all the parties right of the centre (including peripheral nationalists) support charter schools and for sure our suburbanites do as well.

3) The Vox's parental veto may sound "libertarian", indeed. Let's clarify that kind of right-wing libertarianism has little to do with "social liberalism". However, it's possible that some of our suburbanites confound "libertarianism" and "social liberalism", or believe that veto is a parental right because children are parental property. Not sure if parental veto is supported by a majority,  though.

[Skye]

>"Old money" urban areas, basically close to the city centre in upper class 19th century expansions (example: Madrid's Salamanca neighbourhood)
>New suburban developments, with lots of young professionals (example: Much of Northern Madrid, like for example Las Tablas)
>Suburban developments for the super rich (example: The towns immediately to the west of Madrid: Las Rozas, Majadahonda, etc)

Funny you mention this, since a few weeks ago I calculated how the PAUs of Madrid voted. We have data for the municipalities and neighborhoods of Madrid, but the PAUs (with the notable exception of the Ensanche de Vallecas, which is its own administrative neighborhood) are contained/split in larger administrative neighborhoods. For the November 2019 General election, we have:

PAUs to the north of Madrid:

Montecarmelo: Right 71.8, Left 26.6
Las Tablas: Right 68.8, Left 29.3
Sanchinarro: 65.4, Left 32.4

PAUs to the south of Madrid:

Ensanche de Vallecas: Left: 55.0, Right 43.4
PAU of Carabanchel (La Peseta): Left 50.3, Right 47.2

In all of them, Cs got double digit performances, better than the 9% they got in the Community of Madrid.

There is a notable absence here, which is Valdebebas. As it turns out, Valdebebas shares a majority of its precincts with other neighborhoods that don't belong to the PAU. The 2 precincts that are entirely contained within the development, however, voted 69.7-28.2 for the right.

[Velasco]

Funny you mention this, since a few weeks ago I calculated how the PAUs of Madrid voted. We have data for the municipalities and neighborhoods of Madrid, but the PAUs (with the notable exception of the Ensanche de Vallecas, which is its own administrative neighborhood) are contained/split in larger administrative neighborhoods. For the November 2019 General election, we have:

If I remember correctly,  places like Sanchinarro or Las Tablas had Cs pluralities in April 2019 general elections. It'd be interesting to collect the same data for the May 2019 regional elections,  which presumably recorded strong Cs performances in the PAUS as well, in order to measure the Ayuso landslide and the Cs demise (or small transfers to rhe PSOE, in case they exist). Party vote is more interesting than block vote, given that the transfers between the left and the right are mininal in polarized environments (the same rules for Catalonia with the pro-independence block and the rest of parties)

[Skye]

Funny you mention this, since a few weeks ago I calculated how the PAUs of Madrid voted. We have data for the municipalities and neighborhoods of Madrid, but the PAUs (with the notable exception of the Ensanche de Vallecas, which is its own administrative neighborhood) are contained/split in larger administrative neighborhoods. For the November 2019 General election, we have:

If I remember correctly,  places like Sanchinarro or Las Tablas had Cs pluralities in April 2019 general elections. It'd be interesting to collect the same data for the May 2019 regional elections,  which presumably recorded strong Cs performances in the PAUS as well, in order to measure the Ayuso landslide and the Cs demise (or small transfers to rhe PSOE, in case they exist). Party vote is more interesting than block vote, given that the transfers between the left and the right are mininal in polarized environments (the same rules for Catalonia with the pro-independence block and the rest of parties)

I'll probably do it in the next few weeks before the election takes place. It's just that I have to do it manually, and that takes time. But yes, Cs swept all of the PAUs in the north and won a few precincts in the PAUs of the south in the 2019 April General and May Regional elections.

Here's the Cs % in each PAU for the 2019N elections:

Montecarmelo: 14.5%
Las Tablas: 16.6%
Sanchinarro: 14.3%
Vallecas: Left: 12%
Carabanchel: 11.4%

Thing is Cs polling at like 5% currently. The 9% benchmark they had (their Nov. 2019 result) was already low enough. So if anything, they're in danger of getting into single digit performances in the PAUs for this election.

[Velasco]

Former Vox member Mabel Campuzano will join the regional government of Murcia with the Education and Culture portfolios. Campuzano was expelled from Vox, alongside other two members of the regional assembly, due to a conflict with Javier Ortega Smith and the national leadership involving the dismissal of party employees and the access blocking to the bank accounts of the Vox regional group. The expelled Vox members have not confirmed rumours pointing to their possible incorporation to the PP, saying that they are "illusioned" to join a project to "reunify the centre-right" but stressing that they remain comitted to the Vox platform. The main goal of Campuzano and her partners is to implement the far-right agenda with the parental veto to issues like sex education or LGTB affairs as the leading measure and unwavering committment, as well as the promotion of charter schools. Previously the three members of the regional assembly who defected Cs were rewarded with posts in the cabinet led by Fernando López Miras (PP), as well as another person who was placed in the Cs list (thus ensuring majority in the eventuality of a resignation within the members elected for Cs). Campuzano is the first person linked to the far-right party that joins a regional government, maybe the prelude of PP-Vox coalitions in regions like Madrid.,  

El País reports the PP is targeting a list of 100 Cs cadres to join the ranks of the conservative party alongside Lorena Roldán, Toni Cantó and the alleged architect of the orange implosion Fran Hervías, who was the Cs secretary of organization.

Yesterday Pablo Iglesias launched his campaign in Madrid,  backed by the new Deputy PM Yolanda Díaz. "Pablo is able to change the history of our country", said the Labour minister. The 2019 candidate Isa Serra will be placed second in the UP list, followed by lawyer Vanessa Lillo (IU), anti-eviction activist Slejandra Jacinto and veteran trade unionist Agustín Moreno.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

State department press freedom report

There was a small row after a U.S. State department report criticised the government over attacks supposedly made by it on the freedom of the press. The report in question pointed out that many journalists have denounced that their questions directed at government officials during the March national lockdown ended up not being answered at press conferences, which at the time were held in a non-presential format, which consisted of the PM's communications director reading out selected questions, filtered through Moncloa's Press Office after being submitted by news outlets.

It also brought in to attention attacks made by PM Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) on conservative outlets and an imprisonment threat made by then Deputy PM Pablo Iglesias (UP) against a journalist for publishing damaging revelations about his party regarding the Neurona corruption case; along with several other statements belonging to high-ranking Unidas Podemos figures, singling out spokesman Pablo Echenique.

In addition, being a general report on press freedom in Spain, not just government attitudes towards it; it mentioned certain patterns of hostility towards the press within Vox, though it didn't specify any concrete instances, as was the case with the governing parties.

The opposition has hailed this report as proof that their accusations of authoritarian tendencies in the government are founded, while Deputy PM Carmen Calvo (PSOE) dismissed the report as biased due to it being mostly elaborated during the waning days of the Trump administration. Some on the left have said that the United States' record on press freedom and other civil liberties should make the State department think twice about lecturing other countries.

Ruling against the government

In other news, the government received a severe judicial blow on Wednesday. A judge ruled that last year's dismissal of Colonel Diego Pérez de los Cobos as Guardia Civil (one of the two national police corps of Spain) chief in Madrid, carried out by Interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, was unlawful and constituted an abuse of power, being therefore nullified.

The judge considers that the minister removed Pérez de los Cobos for his involvement in an investigation into the government's conduct during early 2020, in the weeks preceding the declaration of a nationwide state of alarm due to the coronavirus pandemic. Said investigation produced a report which alleged that the government had known beforehand of the extent the virus' spread would have, as far back as January, possibly incurring in negligence by allowing mass events such as the International Women's Day demonstrations on March 8; just days before a national lockdown came into force.

At the time, the report caused great controversy for its accusations, based on flimsy evidence which cited right-wing news sources with a history of fabrication and anti-government bias. It was in the aftermath of its publication that the minister decided to dismiss the Colonel, on the ground of "loss of confidence in him", provoking several resignations within the top brass of the Guardia Civil. The judge understands that this was an attempt to obstruct justice, even though the report did not result in the prosecution of any members of the government.

The Interior ministry has already appealed the decision, in hopes that the dismissed Colonel is not reinstated to his old post, as the sentence dictates.

[Velasco]

The most relevant political news recently has been a Molotov Cocktail attack against the Podemos HQs in Cartagena, the second largest town in the region of Murcia. Remember the far-right will participate in the regional government as a consequence of recent developments. The PP spokesman, who happens to be Madrid mayor Almeida,  condemned the attack but added Podemos has failed to condemn attacks against the PP,  suggesting that Pablo Iglesias triggers those actions or something. I'm a bit concerned because I see a poisoned climate and certain banalization of fascism, tbh.

In what regards the cases against Podemos, they have been invariably dismissed to date. Is there a corruption scandal involving Neurona consilting? I'd be cautious, given the precedents.

While I'm personally critic of Iglesias in many respects, I empathize with him and his family in what regards the intolerable harassment they have been enduring in recent times.

As for the affair with Pérez de los Cobos, I think the Interior minister has handled his dismissal rather awkwardly. Said this, the incompetence of Perez de los Cobos handling the Catalan referendum in 2017, in addition to his recent report on March 8 demonstrations based on fake news and rejected by the judge, make him worthy of being fired and exiled to the UAE. Grande Marlaska might have to resign, though

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

In what regards the cases against Podemos, they have been invariably dismissed to date. Is there a corruption scandal involving Neurona consilting? I'd be cautious, given the precedents.

It looks like another nothingburger, I haven’t been following it very closely, but a lot of the case was based on hearsay and several lines of investigation have been closed due to lack of evidence. It will probably end in nothing.

[Velasco]

The CIS pre-election poll has been released today. Controversial as ever, the poll points to a tie between the left and the right with Cs below threshold and Vox slightly above. The seat projection below is corrected, because the original released by the CIS is not fitting with the vote edtimation (,eith such figures,  we get a likely left-wing majority)

PP 39.2% 58-59 seats
PSOE 25.3% 37-38 seats
MM 14.8% 30-21 seats
UP 8.7% 10-12 seats
VOX 5.4% 8-9 seats
Cs 4.4% 0 seats

The rest of polls released to date point to a clear right-wing majority, so take this CIS with loads of salt. However, this projection is not completely unrealistic, providing the left is able to mobilize voters in left-leaning areas. The low income district of Puente de Vallecas in the city of Madrid has more enrolled voters than the high income districts of Retiro and Salamanca, the problem is that turnout is 20% or 25% lower and nothing points to a higher movilization now.  Right-wing voters are apparently very motivated, but the success of Ayuso in rallying the most radical voters behind her might be counter-productive. In case a majority of Vox voters rally behind Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the list of Rocío Monasterio could be in danger. Ayuso looks sometimes more radical than Monasterio and is widely loved by the Vox base. Vox below threshold is not the most likely outcome, but it's a possibility. On the other hand, he PP might get a result close to absolute majority...

[Battista Minola 1616]

Right-wing voters are apparently very motivated, but the success of Ayuso in rallying the most radical voters behind her might be counter-productive. In case a majority of Vox voters rally behind Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the list of Rocío Monasterio could be in danger. Ayuso looks sonetimes more radical than Monasterio and is widely loved by the Vox base. Vox below threshold is not the most likely outcome, but it's a possibility. On the other hand, he PP might get a result close to absolute majority...

Would the scenario you outline here be more likely to give PP an absolute majority or to boost the PSOE-MM-UP bloc? Not that it sounds particularly plausible either way, of course.

[Velasco]

[

Would the scenario you outline here be more likely to give PP an absolute majority or to boost the PSOE-MM-UP bloc? Not that it sounds particularly plausible either way, of course.

In order to win absolute majority, the PP would need to get more votes than PSOE, MM and UP combined. This implies the PP getting a vote percentage well above 45%. The PP is getting 41% or 42% in the most favourable polls.

Take the German federal election of 2013. The CDU/CSU got a strong result and that was seen as a personal victory of chancellor Angela Merkel. However, the left block (Socialdemocrats, Greens,  Left) won a majority of seats because both FDP and AfD failed to meet the threshold by a narrow margin. Politically Merkel and Ayuso are as far as mainstream conservatives can be (pragmatic centrist vs populist rightwinger), but arithmetically that scenario is remotely plausible

[Velasco]

It's interesting this analysis in ElDiario.es pointing the historical dominance of the right in Madrid (in the last 30 years) is sustained by the richest 30%. The graphs show the correlation between level of income and vote for the right.

 The left has more support than the right in the remaining 70%, so the logical conclusion is the turnout gap between low and high income areas is key for election results in Madrid.

 In raw numbers PSOE, MM and UP got some 32,000 votes in last elections among the poorest 3%. In contrast PP, Cs and Vox got more than 100,000 votes among the richest 3%. The correlation between level of income and turnout is pretty evident in the graphs. Turnout reached nearly 80% in the richest 3%, while dropped below 50% in rhe poorest 3%.

The analysis also points the percentage of immigrant population not eligible to vote in regional elections is higher in the poorest sections.

Finally, comparing 2015 and 2019 elections, in the latter turnout increased in high income areas and decreased in low income areas.  Higher turnout in the richest areas added 100,000 votes to the parties right of the centre in the 2019 elections,  while the parties left of the centre gained a little amount of votes in the richest areas and lost votes in the poorest areas due to demobilization. In 2015 the left won a narrow majority in the Madrid local elections, but failed to win a majority in regional assembly because IU failed to meet the 5% threshold


https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/gana-derecha-elecciones-madrid-mayoritaria-30-rico_1_7347696.html#click=https://t.co/ELH5HyLsJL

[Skye]

Even if the CIS gives the left inflated %s, the possibility of Cs and VOX failing to reach the 5% threshold should terrify Ayuso. The left would have a real shot at getting a majority of the seats. It wouldn't even take these %s to get there.

[Velasco]

Most recent news concerning the Madrid regional elections

- Acting regional premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso claims that she will use Sputnik if the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) approves the Russian vaccine. The issue is that she lacks the competences to approve its use bypassing the central government, not to mention to negotiate with the Russians. According to the ABC newspaper, the regional government looked at the possibility to buy Sputnik vaccines in February. Regional Health minister Enrique Ruiz Escudero would have met three times with "agents of the Russian vaccine".

-Violent clashes between the police and antifascist demonstrators in a Vox rally held yesterday in the working class neighbourhood of Vallecas. The incidents began when, three minutes after he began to speak, Santiago Abascal asked the police to evict a group of persons which was booing him quite loud. According to the chronicle in elDiario.es, Abascal stepped off the stage and went to confront the nearest group of opponents with his security guard and other party leaders. The police had mounted a ring of security separating the demonstrators from the rally. When Abascal and his group approached the demonstrators, the policed charged against the latter, in order to prevent losing control of the situation. After the charge, the rally went on with Rocío Monasterio claiming the demonstrators are admirers of the terrorists who committed the Madrid bombings, while Santiago Abascal attacked Pablo Iglesias claiming the Podemos leader is a class traitor because for moving with his family from Vallecas to a detached house in Galapagar (Abascal lives in a house that costs 1 million euros and Monasterio in El Viso, one of the most the most expensive neighbourhoods of Madrid). Then some stones flew over the heads of Abascal and his crew.  The police charged again and some journalists were beaten...

Similar incidents occurred during the campaign in Catalonia, when pro-independence activists tried to boycott Vox rallies held in hostile territory. It seems 'antifascist' activists never learn the golden rule of avoiding provocations, so they contribute to the rise of the far-right ensuring publicity and granting  victim status to the reactionaries.

A better way to protest, in my opinion, is the banner hanging from one neighbour's window, that you can see in a picture illustrating the article linked below

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/santiago-abascal-encuentra-vallecas-buscando_129_7386508.html

[perpetual_cynic]

Can someone explain to me how such a "liberal and multicultural" city like Madrid turns in big vote totals for Vox, especially around Chamberí and Salamanca.

[Former President tack50]

Can someone explain to me how such a "liberal and multicultural" city like Madrid turns in big vote totals for Vox, especially around Chamberí and Salamanca.

I don't think this will answer your answer, but Madrid is indeed one of, if not the most conservative Western European capital (I think only Stockholm is comparable in being a large capital city that is very conservative). I guess for Americans it's extremely hard to imagine DC proper voting around 55% Republican; with parts of NoVA and certain wards in DC proper voting 75% Republican

My theory is that class politics have stuck in Spain (and Madrid in particular) to an extent that they haven't in any other major Western European city? And Madrid being a fairly wealthy city you end up with a good amount of conservatism. Add to that Madrid being very easily on the "Spanish unionism" side of the Catalonia debate and that probably adds to that.

But why Madrid is so right wing compared to other European capitals (hell, even compared to a place like Lisbon, since Portugal also has kept class politics to an even larger extent than Spain!)

However, why Chamberí and Salamanca are extremely right wing is very easy to explain. They are just the wealthiest parts of Madrid, with a ton of "old money" rich people living in them and the 19th century planned expansions there.

It is worth noting that while Madrid is a rather conservative city it is one that is extremely politically polarized, possibly the most polarized even. Places like Vallecas (working part places of Madrid) are among the most left wing places of Spain; while Salamanca and Chamberí are among the most deeply conservative, beating even places like the Spanish southeast (Murcia/Almería) or deep rural Castille.

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone explain to me how such a "liberal and multicultural" city like Madrid turns in big vote totals for Vox, especially around Chamberí and Salamanca.

My answer, admittedly as an outsider, is Franco. The cities boom period was during the heyday of the regime and one has to be already somewhat predisposed towards a authoritarian state to justify working in or around it's government. There are a lot of families in Madrid that got rich off the regime. This means that Madrid has a lot of people who are inclined to look backwards and see a "good old time with a few flaws," which of course is a common identity in post-Authoritarian regimes among the side that benefited from the state. Right attachment to Centralism and Castilian Nationalism of course are also inheritances of Franco, which means Madrid wound find herself even more aligned with those views. Reminder also that VOX is not your tropified "right-populist" party, it appeals to more middle-of-the-road types rather than struggling lower-income voters, and its appeals are more neo-Francoist than anti-Globalist.

[perpetual_cynic]

Can someone explain to me how such a "liberal and multicultural" city like Madrid turns in big vote totals for Vox, especially around Chamberí and Salamanca.

I don't think this will answer your answer, but Madrid is indeed one of, if not the most conservative Western European capital (I think only Stockholm is comparable in being a large capital city that is very conservative). I guess for Americans it's extremely hard to imagine DC proper voting around 55% Republican; with parts of NoVA and certain wards in DC proper voting 75% Republican

My theory is that class politics have stuck in Spain (and Madrid in particular) to an extent that they haven't in any other major Western European city? And Madrid being a fairly wealthy city you end up with a good amount of conservatism. Add to that Madrid being very easily on the "Spanish unionism" side of the Catalonia debate and that probably adds to that.

But why Madrid is so right wing compared to other European capitals (hell, even compared to a place like Lisbon, since Portugal also has kept class politics to an even larger extent than Spain!)

However, why Chamberí and Salamanca are extremely right wing is very easy to explain. They are just the wealthiest parts of Madrid, with a ton of "old money" rich people living in them and the 19th century planned expansions there.

It is worth noting that while Madrid is a rather conservative city it is one that is extremely politically polarized, possibly the most polarized even. Places like Vallecas (working part places of Madrid) are among the most left wing places of Spain; while Salamanca and Chamberí are among the most deeply conservative, beating even places like the Spanish southeast (Murcia/Almería) or deep rural Castille.

What makes this even more ironic is the success of left-wing parties in virtually every other major city in Spain: Barcelona especially, Valencia (compromis), seville, etc. I also hear that Madrid is so pro-LGBT and socially liberal but how could it be, voting for these parties that are so anti-liberal. Even then, Stockholm is not really that conservative, the far-right party in Sweden received a lower percentage in Stockholm than in the country as a whole, also the Green Party does better than average. Stockholm is governed by Moderaterna which, frankly, is a very moderate right party.

[perpetual_cynic]

Can someone explain to me how such a "liberal and multicultural" city like Madrid turns in big vote totals for Vox, especially around Chamberí and Salamanca.

My answer, admittedly as an outsider, is Franco. The cities boom period was during the heyday of the regime and one has to be already somewhat predisposed towards a authoritarian state to justify working in or around it's government. There are a lot of families in Madrid that got rich off the regime. This means that Madrid has a lot of people who are inclined to look backwards and see a "good old time with a few flaws," which of course is a common identity in post-Authoritarian regimes among the side that benefited from the state. Right attachment to Centralism and Castilian Nationalism of course are also inheritances of Franco, which means Madrid wound find herself even more alligned with those views.

I have heard that despite the voting patterns, Madrid is the gay capital of Europe.

[Skye]

I find it funny how even in the most left wing neighborhoods of Madrid, the right wing parties will still find a way to get like over 30% of the vote. That's weak, sure, but it's a non-negligible number. Even in Puente de Vallecas, the district where the left is strongest, IIRC the right got like a third of the vote. That's still a better showing that what left wing parties get in the uber conservative strongholds where they can easily drop into the 20s or even 10s in certain neighborhoods.

Even down to the precinct level. I checked, and for the Nov. 2019 General Election, there were 120 precincts that gave the right wing parties overall over 80% of the vote. Wanna guess how many precincts gave the left wing parties more than 80% of the vote? Zero.

[Former President tack50]

What makes this even more ironic is the success of left-wing parties in virtually every other major city in Spain: Barcelona especially, Valencia (compromis), seville, etc. I also hear that Madrid is so pro-LGBT and socially liberal but how could it be, voting for these parties that are so anti-liberal. Even then, Stockholm is not really that conservative, the far-right party in Sweden received a lower percentage in Stockholm than in the country as a whole, also the Green Party does better than average. Stockholm is governed by Moderaterna which, frankly, is a very moderate right party.

Eh, Barcelona is extremely progressive sure; but I wouldn't call "virtually every other major city in Spain" particularly left wing.

I actually went over the 20 largest cities in Spain (excluding L'Hospitalet de Llobregat since that is basically a suburb of Barcelona) and they are all anywhere from centre-left to centre-right; with only 2 major outliers in Barcelona and Murcia. Here are the results by "bloc" in the 10 largest towns in Spain in the November 2019 election:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Madrid: Right 52-47
Barcelona: Left 66-33
Valencia: Right 50-49
Sevilla: Left 50-47
Málaga: Right 50-47
Murcia: Right 63-35
Palma de Mallorca: Left 50-48
Las Palmas de GC: Left 50-48
Bilbao: Right 51-48

Alicante: Right 53-45
Córdoba: Right 55-43
Valladolid: Right 55-44
Vigo: Left 65-34
Gijón: Left 54-45
Vitoria: Left 55-43
A Coruña: Left 58-41
Elche: Right 54-45
Granada: Right 56-43

Sure, Madrid is rather right wing compared to most other Spanish major cities; but it's not like Madrid's "Right+5" result is a massive outlier.

Also, if you are thinking of mayors there like Ribó in Valencia or Colau in Barcelona; why are you forgetting about Carmena in Madrid? Sure, she might not have been reelected but she was still elected once! (and most of UP's pickups in 2015 ended up collapsing; iirc they only held Cádiz as well as Barcelona, with the latter only due to Valls leaving Cs)

Worth noting that generic "social issues" just have very little to no importance in Spain (or most of Europe for that matter). Spain is arguably one of the most pro-LGBT countries and that translates to the gay pride parades and what not, which are a huge event in the city and heavily publicized, even by conservative administrations. There is no "religious right" in Spain (well, there is, but its influence is tiny); and bashing "the gays and abortion" is not going to be a huge vote winner. Bashing Catalonia meanwhile, or even illegal immigration, will net you votes though.

Something I will note also is that conservative administrations in Madrid have long been very "libertarian" at least in rethoric (even if not necessarily always in terms of policies); talking a lot about FREEDOM!. Remember one of Ayuso's biggest slogans during this campaign is the hyperbolic "Socialism or Freedom" one; but even someone like Esperanza Aguirre (premier of Madrid region 2003-2012) back in the day long took pride on being a liberal/libertarian; and publicly criticized the party on stuff like abortion.

I guess if polls are right we will finally see a test of how far does the alleged libertarian values of Madrid's PP go, on whether they cave to Vox's more socially reactionary proposals or if they stay firm but just go turboliberal in terms of the economy.

[BigSerg]

"We're worried.
In the Madrid elections, home to most Jews in Spain, anti-Semitic parties aspire to form government.
His success would jeopardize the normality of Jewish life"
https://twitter.com/ACOM_es/status/1380432789020016640?s=20