Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[BigSerg]

The butterfly effect

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-03-10/madrid-region-faces-early-election-after-infighting-triggers-political-earthquake-in-spain.html

Spain’s butterfly effect began in the southeastern region of Murcia. The precarious balance between the country’s two main political blocs has been broken by what started out as a local move that quickly snowballed into an event with national repercussions.

In just a few hours on Wednesday, a no-confidence motion filed in Murcia against the conservative Popular Party (PP) by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the liberal Ciudadanos (Citizens) led to the fall of the regional government of Madrid, and threatened to destabilize other regions such as Andalusia and Castilla y León.

As a result of the initiative to push the PP out of power in Murcia, the Madrid regional premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso, also of the PP, said she was dissolving her own legislature and calling an early election on May 4. Díaz Ayuso’s move, announced at midday on Wednesday, aimed to prevent a no-confidence vote against her own executive in Madrid (...)

Reacting to her announcement, the PSOE and the leftist Más Madrid registered two no-confidence motions against Díaz Ayuso in an effort to stop the snap election from taking place. At around 4.30pm, it emerged that the Madrid regional assembly’s governing board had accepted the motions. These were registered on the legal basis that the election announcement is not official until it is published in the regional gazette on Thursday. Once this happens, it cannot be reversed and any subsequent motions would fail to stop the vote.

If Madrileños do get called to a vote on May 4, the election is likely to change the political landscape, especially on the right end of the spectrum, where the far-right Vox has been making significant gains, most recently at the Catalan election in February. Ciudadanos, which stands to gain its first regional premiership in Spain if the Murcia motion prospers, now faces the unexpected prospect of losing its hold on the powerful Madrid region. 

https://www.europapress.es/madrid/noticia-juristas-creen-prima-voluntad-disolucion-mociones-tener-efectos-dicta-decreto-20210310161030.html

[Velasco]

Maybe the problem is the existence of a legal vacuum concerning the autonomous communities ruled by the "general regime". Let's say there exist two kinds of autonomous communities, the "historical nationalities " (Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia and Andalusia) and those ruled by the "general regime" (rest of regions). In other words, those regions that back in the day followed the "fast track" to autonomy (article 151 of the constitution) and the ones following the "slow track" (article 143). Some of the latter have reformed their statutes of autonomy (case of Valencia, which called a snap election in April 2019 in coincidence with general elections), but it seems Madrid is lacking a clear procedure to call snap elections. In case Ayuso wins the legal dispute, Madrid will have to call elections again in 2023 alongside the other regions that haven't amended their statutes

7

 https://www.europapress.es/madrid/noticia-juristas-creen-prima-voluntad-disolucion-mociones-tener-efectos-dicta-decreto-20210310161030.html  

"Jurists believe dissolution prevails over no confidence motion, as it has effects since the decree is issued"

 Just heard to other jurist with the same argument and it makes sense, since otherwise the regional premier couldn't call elections without the consent of the opposition. The problem is that the legislation says literally the decree comes into effect when it's published in the Official Bulletin. That's why the High Court or the Constitutional Court will rule in one way or another.  They could rule in favour of Ayuso (or not)

[Former President tack50]

Maybe the problem is the existence of a legal vacuum concerning the autonomous communities ruled by the "general regime". Let's say there exist two kinds of autonomous communities, the "historical nationalities " (Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia and Andalusia) and those ruled by the "general regime" (rest of regions). In other words, those regions that back in the day followed the "fast track" to autonomy (article 151 of the constitution) and the ones following the "slow track" (article 143). Some of the latter have reformed their statutes of autonomy (case of Valencia, which called a snap election in April 2019 in coincidence with general elections), but it seems Madrid is lacking a clear procedure to call snap elections. In case Ayuso wins the legal dispute, Madrid will have to call elections again in 2023 alongside the other regions that haven't amended their statutes

7

 https://www.europapress.es/madrid/noticia-juristas-creen-prima-voluntad-disolucion-mociones-tener-efectos-dicta-decreto-20210310161030.html  

"Jurists believe dissolution prevails over no confidence motion, as it has effects since the decree is issued"

 Just heard to other jurist with the same argument and it makes sense, since otherwise the regional premier couldn't call elections without the consent of the opposition. The problem is that the legislation says literally the decree comes into effect when it's released in the Official Bulletin. That's why the High Court or the Constitutional Court will rule in one way or another.  They could rule in favour of Ayuso (or not)

It isn't really a legal vacuum that concerns the "general regime" communities; but rather a legal vacuum concerning the exact specifics of how a snap election gets called.

Madrid's legislation (and I think that of all regions?) specifies that when a snap election gets called, parliament gets dissolved when the dissolution order is published (which takes roughly 24 hours in most cases). However, the legislation also establishes that no snap elections may occur while a no confidence vote is pending. Therefore, there is the legal vacuum of what happens if someone puts in place a no confidence vote during that brief 24 hour period in order to avoid the snap election.

To be honest on this particular debate I lean towards the arguments put in place by Ayuso and PP. I think that quickly tabling a no confidence vote goes against at least the spirit of the norm; and is certainly a dirty play by PSOE/MM. Madrid's premier wanted elections and so elections can and should happen. There is also your argument that if this was the case, theoretically snap elections would require the consent of the opposition.

I do agree that this will 100% end up in court which will have to decide what happens now.

Once the Bureau of the Regional Assembly admitted the motions of no confidence, it's not clear the elections are going to take place. The left and Cs claim the decree is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette, while the PP argues it's in force since Ayuso signed it this morning. Possibly the Supreme Court will have to rule on this dispute,

In case there is a snap election, Ayuso seems to be the favourite. In case there's a no confidence motion and some consensus between PSOE, Cs and MM, Ayuso will be ousted. In that case, she and her supporters will go in full Trumpist mode. The rightwing outlets are already claiming there's a coup attempt

The right-wing outlets actually deserve Chavismo.

Ironically there is a bit of a "Boy who cried wolf" effect in this case.

While calling it a coup is still a vast hyperbole, in this case there are genuine legal arguments that can be made that would unambiguously put the maneouver by PSOE and MM in Madrid as a dirty play that undermines democracy slightly and even as a mild regional coup.

However, when Sanchez first came into power, the opposition also spared no time calling the no confidence vote against Rajoy a coup as well, when in that case the accusation was 100% nonsense

(there is also the whole debate about whether Catalonia 2017 qualifies as a coup or not which I won't get into; but there Spanish right certainly also spares no time calling the Catalan secessionists putschists)

[Velasco]

It isn't really a legal vacuum that concerns the "general regime" communities; but rather a legal vacuum concerning the exact specifics of how a snap election gets called.

Madrid's legislation (and I think that of all regions?) specifies that when a snap election gets called, parliament gets dissolved when the dissolution order is published (which takes roughly 24 hours in most cases). However, the legislation also establishes that no snap elections may occur while a no confidence vote is pending. Therefore, there is the legal vacuum of what happens if someone puts in place a no confidence vote during that brief 24 hour period in order to avoid the snap election.

To be honest on this particular debate I lean towards the arguments put in place by Ayuso and PP. I think that quickly tabling a no confidence vote goes against at least the spirit of the norm; and is certainly a dirty play by PSOE/MM. Madrid's premier wanted elections and so elections can and should happen. There is also your argument that if this was the case, theoretically snap elections would require the consent of the opposition.

I do agree that this will 100% end up in court which will have to decide what happens now.

Possibly you are right, there is a vacuum concerning that period of 24 hours until the decree is published. According to something I heard to Gabilondo, it's a defect in a specific legislation of Madrid passed in the 1990s. Even if Ayuso has a case, and I'm not going to contradict you, neither PSOE nor MM are playing dirtier than Ayuso. Let's say the truth: Ayuso has been toying with the idea of calling a snap election for months. Casado stopped her once during the past year. The no confidence motions in Murcia give her a pretext that otherwise would have been hard to find in this context ruled by the pandemic. Ayuso calls preventive elections, but it's highly unlikely Cs in Madrid had the desire to break the coalition, despite the strained relationship between Ayuso and Aguado. If that was the case, the movements of Cs would have been coordinated in Madrid and Murcia, as well as with the PSOE snd MM. There is a huge miscalculation of Cs and PSOE that benefits the Madrid premier. The truth is that Cs always refused to hear the siren calls from the left in Madrid and will get its reward. Ayuso is seeking to boost her career and destroy Cs.The outcome, in case they have the numbers, will be either Ayuso propped up by Vox or Ayuso in coalition with Vox. She has chances of getting that and challenge the embattled leadership of Pablo Casado. It will be a radical and definitive turn of politics. If I was in the PSOE or in MM, I would try my best to prevent this snap election takes place. This will be set by the courts again. It's a pretty bad sign

[Zinneke]

Maybe the problem is the existence of a legal vacuum concerning the autonomous communities ruled by the "general regime". Let's say there exist two kinds of autonomous communities, the "historical nationalities " (Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia and Andalusia) and those ruled by the "general regime" (rest of regions). In other words, those regions that back in the day followed the "fast track" to autonomy (article 151 of the constitution) and the ones following the "slow track" (article 143). Some of the latter have reformed their statutes of autonomy (case of Valencia, which called a snap election in April 2019 in coincidence with general elections), but it seems Madrid is lacking a clear procedure to call snap elections. In case Ayuso wins the legal dispute, Madrid will have to call elections again in 2023 alongside the other regions that haven't amended their statutes

7

 https://www.europapress.es/madrid/noticia-juristas-creen-prima-voluntad-disolucion-mociones-tener-efectos-dicta-decreto-20210310161030.html  

"Jurists believe dissolution prevails over no confidence motion, as it has effects since the decree is issued"

 Just heard to other jurist with the same argument and it makes sense, since otherwise the regional premier couldn't call elections without the consent of the opposition. The problem is that the legislation says literally the decree comes into effect when it's released in the Official Bulletin. That's why the High Court or the Constitutional Court will rule in one way or another.  They could rule in favour of Ayuso (or not)

It isn't really a legal vacuum that concerns the "general regime" communities; but rather a legal vacuum concerning the exact specifics of how a snap election gets called.

Madrid's legislation (and I think that of all regions?) specifies that when a snap election gets called, parliament gets dissolved when the dissolution order is published (which takes roughly 24 hours in most cases). However, the legislation also establishes that no snap elections may occur while a no confidence vote is pending. Therefore, there is the legal vacuum of what happens if someone puts in place a no confidence vote during that brief 24 hour period in order to avoid the snap election.

To be honest on this particular debate I lean towards the arguments put in place by Ayuso and PP. I think that quickly tabling a no confidence vote goes against at least the spirit of the norm; and is certainly a dirty play by PSOE/MM. Madrid's premier wanted elections and so elections can and should happen. There is also your argument that if this was the case, theoretically snap elections would require the consent of the opposition.

I do agree that this will 100% end up in court which will have to decide what happens now.

Why should elections be based on the whim of one intellectually challenged, yet insane figure's desire to boost her majority on the back of having less tight restrictions and some rancid instrumentalisation of the pandemic for political gain?

It shouldn't be up to the premier to call early elections, it should be up to the legislative body to have the opportunity to form a new majority. Can you imagine if Sanchez had handled the pandemic well, seen a wave of popularity because of his Covid policy (whether strict or not) and then opportunistically called an early election? The right-wing press would of course slaughter him. And rightly so. But its only a putsch or a coup if the Left do it.

Once the Bureau of the Regional Assembly admitted the motions of no confidence, it's not clear the elections are going to take place. The left and Cs claim the decree is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette, while the PP argues it's in force since Ayuso signed it this morning. Possibly the Supreme Court will have to rule on this dispute,

In case there is a snap election, Ayuso seems to be the favourite. In case there's a no confidence motion and some consensus between PSOE, Cs and MM, Ayuso will be ousted. In that case, she and her supporters will go in full Trumpist mode. The rightwing outlets are already claiming there's a coup attempt

The right-wing outlets actually deserve Chavismo.

Ironically there is a bit of a "Boy who cried wolf" effect in this case.

While calling it a coup is still a vast hyperbole, in this case there are genuine legal arguments that can be made that would unambiguously put the maneouver by PSOE and MM in Madrid as a dirty play that undermines democracy slightly and even as a mild regional coup.

However, when Sanchez first came into power, the opposition also spared no time calling the no confidence vote against Rajoy a coup as well, when in that case the accusation was 100% nonsense

(there is also the whole debate about whether Catalonia 2017 qualifies as a coup or not which I won't get into; but there Spanish right certainly also spares no time calling the Catalan secessionists putschists)

But that's the point : the spanish press are turning Spain into a latin american democracy. They are constantly baying for blood and whipping up tensions, by saying that the Transition is at risk, that Bolshevism is back in Spain (that intellectually sub-par book by Frederico Jimenez Losantos is a best seller), that they're gonna run out of toilet paper and then of course playing to the diasporas of latin americans too by equating Podemos with Chavismo. But the only actors acting like Latin American populists are PP and Vox figures, sky high in the polls.

Again, I actually blame Rivera for starting this, for turning an entire spectrum into a competition as to who can come out with the most hardline extreme stances to steal headlines, initially about Catalonia, then about the illegitimacy of the Sanchez government (voted in by majority). But there's no "both sides" about this : the people playing with fire with the democratic institutions and importing the worst aspects of Latin American democracy are the Spanish Right.

[BigSerg]

Habemus Elections!!!!!!
https://issuu.com/prisarevistas/docs/05900

[Former President tack50]

Why should elections be based on the whim of one intellectually challenged, yet insane figure's desire to boost her majority on the back of having less tight restrictions and some rancid instrumentalisation of the pandemic for political gain?

It shouldn't be up to the premier to call early elections, it should be up to the legislative body to have the opportunity to form a new majority. Can you imagine if Sanchez had handled the pandemic well, seen a wave of popularity because of his Covid policy (whether strict or not) and then opportunistically called an early election? The right-wing press would of course slaughter him. And rightly so. But its only a putsch or a coup if the Left do it.



But that's the point : the spanish press are turning Spain into a latin american democracy. They are constantly baying for blood and whipping up tensions, by saying that the Transition is at risk, that Bolshevism is back in Spain (that intellectually sub-par book by Frederico Jimenez Losantos is a best seller), that they're gonna run out of toilet paper and then of course playing to the diasporas of latin americans too by equating Podemos with Chavismo. But the only actors acting like Latin American populists are PP and Vox figures, sky high in the polls.

Again, I actually blame Rivera for starting this, for turning an entire spectrum into a competition as to who can come out with the most hardline extreme stances to steal headlines, initially about Catalonia, then about the illegitimacy of the Sanchez government (voted in by majority). But there's no "both sides" about this : the people playing with fire with the democratic institutions and importing the worst aspects of Latin American democracy are the Spanish Right.

My issue isn't really with the no confidence vote being tabled per se, but rather with the fact that it was done so as a way to stop elections, which is a bit of a breach of norms. Every premier in Spain has the right to call snap elections (with limitations), including crazy insane Ayuso

Of course the election call was opportunistic and she had already threatened with elections several times before and Ayuso can and should be called out on that by the press (which she won't; I think the no confidence vote thing has slightly backfired on the left). This is an opportunistic election call that she should be called out on (in fact during the hour after the election call but before the no confidence vote that was my thought, that this was an unnecessary election). But the no confidence to stop elections maneouver is equally as opportunistic.

Either way, I guess courts (and if need be, the people of Madrid) will decide what happens now; as things should be.


As for the Latin American argument I agree with that 100%. If I got 1 Venezuelan Bolivar each time I saw Spain compared to Venezuela I'd be rich by now. I've also seen sometimes comparisons to Argentina, I've certainly seen several arguments about how "Sanchez is a Peronist and how the failed ideology of peronism which turned Argentina from First World to Third World will do the same here unless we stop the Peronist Sanchez by voting Vox". Again if I got an Argentinian peso each time I saw such an argument I'd be very wealthy now.

Speaking of Losantos, his radio program will be even more hilarious than usual tomorrow

[BigSerg]

[Velasco]

[
 Every premier in Spain has the right to call snap elections (with limitations), including crazy insane Ayuso

I think there's an argument to be made here. As I said before, in case Madrid holds elections in May 2021, it will have to go again to the polls in May 2023 regardless. That's crazy and a waste of time and money. Either the legislation gives the premier freedom to call whenever she pleases (providing the maximum term duration is 4 years), or the Madrid region adopts fixed terms. As long as there is not a well defined model so there exists a vacuum, I find both sides are equality entitled to be opportunistic.  Said this, I think nothing good is going to come from this

[Former President tack50]

[
 Every premier in Spain has the right to call snap elections (with limitations), including crazy insane Ayuso

I think there's an argument to be made here. As I said before, in case Madrid holds elections in May 2021, it will have to go again to the polls in May 2023 regardless. That's crazy and a waste of time and money. Either the legislation gives the premier freedom to call whenever she pleases (providing the maximum term duration is 4 years), or the Madrid region adopts fixed terms. As long as there is not a well defined model so there exists a vacuum, I find both sides are equality entitled to be opportunistic.  Said this, I think nothing good is going to come from this

I actually went through the 19 regional statutes recently and found out that at least in paper, all 17 regions (excluding Ceuta/Melilla) have the right to call snap elections.

Of these, 11/17 have in their legislation that when a snap election gets called, they don't need to call another one until 4 years later. However some regions like Madrid have that weird "fixed-ish terms" stipulation where they must call another election the next time a local election happens.

Here is the map (the Canary Islands aren't pictured but should be green as well):



I agree that it there is a vacuum and that it is a waste of time and money. In an ideal world, the newly elected Madrid assembly should quickly draft a small reform of their regional statute so that they can call snap elections whenever they want as well as closing this loophole (and so should the government of Murcia and the other red regions in the map)

[Velasco]

The headlines of some Spanish papers are terrific.

El Mundo: "Ayuso calls elections before the manoeuvres of Sánchez and Arrimadas"

La Vanguardia: "Arrimadas breaks with the PP and triggers an earthquake in Madrid and other regions"

El País: "Arrimadas breaks the board"

ABC: "Arrimadas surrenders to the PSOE and Ayuso defies them to elections"

This is ABC cover is one of the least refined examples of trench journalism. Do you remember four years ago Inés Arrimadas was the brave heroine who defied the Catalan separatists? Now she has become a vile traitor that will be avenged by that new Joan of Arc called Isabel Díaz Ayuso. Incredible



https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-portadas-periodicos-jueves-11-marzo-2021-20210311010616.html

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I need to meet more Spanish gals.

[Skye]

But that's the point : the spanish press are turning Spain into a latin american democracy. They are constantly baying for blood and whipping up tensions, by saying that the Transition is at risk, that Bolshevism is back in Spain (that intellectually sub-par book by Frederico Jimenez Losantos is a best seller), that they're gonna run out of toilet paper and then of course playing to the diasporas of latin americans too by equating Podemos with Chavismo. But the only actors acting like Latin American populists are PP and Vox figures, sky high in the polls.

Eh, Podemos is solely to blame for their comparisons to Chavismo.

As a Venezuelan, it irks me that they are in power, of course.

That said, Spain is not Venezuela, and it doesn't look like the country is heading that direction, at least for now.


Anyways, I guess if new elections are called, Ayuso would likely win, but then what? The PP and VOX getting an absolutely majority of seats isn't a foregone conclusion.

[Zinneke]

But that's the point : the spanish press are turning Spain into a latin american democracy. They are constantly baying for blood and whipping up tensions, by saying that the Transition is at risk, that Bolshevism is back in Spain (that intellectually sub-par book by Frederico Jimenez Losantos is a best seller), that they're gonna run out of toilet paper and then of course playing to the diasporas of latin americans too by equating Podemos with Chavismo. But the only actors acting like Latin American populists are PP and Vox figures, sky high in the polls.

Eh, Podemos is solely to blame for their comparisons to Chavismo.

As a Venezuelan, it irks me that they are in power, of course.

There's absolutely no comparison. Nor is there between Vox and the Latin American far right, even though, clearly, Vox is far more inspired by their model than Iglesias is by Chavez's.

Iglesias's cosying up to such regimes comes from profound anti-NATO, anti-Western hegemony views, belief in the revision of a world order, and that in order to revise such a world order, your enemy's enemy is your friend. He's not fundamentally comparable to Chavez as a political phenomenon in that Chavez was the head of the armed forces who used that institutional power to set up a rentier state, whereas Iglesias is, what, a university professor who engages in testimonial politics and whose height of power will be as a minor coalition partner to PSOE.  The entire political dynamics between Podemos and the Venezuelan coup are just incomparable, yet you genuinely meet a whole bunch of right-wing Spanish people who think Podemos could actually take over with an absolute majority and turn Spain into a rentier state.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I need to meet more Spanish gals.

Ayy lmao

I'll grant you that Isabel Ayuso looks very beautiful but damn, way to make your entrance in a thread.

[Skye]

But that's the point : the spanish press are turning Spain into a latin american democracy. They are constantly baying for blood and whipping up tensions, by saying that the Transition is at risk, that Bolshevism is back in Spain (that intellectually sub-par book by Frederico Jimenez Losantos is a best seller), that they're gonna run out of toilet paper and then of course playing to the diasporas of latin americans too by equating Podemos with Chavismo. But the only actors acting like Latin American populists are PP and Vox figures, sky high in the polls.

Eh, Podemos is solely to blame for their comparisons to Chavismo.

As a Venezuelan, it irks me that they are in power, of course.

There's absolutely no comparison. Nor is there between Vox and the Latin American far right, even though, clearly, Vox is far more inspired by their model than Iglesias is by Chavez's.

Iglesias's cosying up to such regimes comes from profound anti-NATO, anti-Western hegemony views, belief in the revision of a world order, and that in order to revise such a world order, your enemy's enemy is your friend. He's not fundamentally comparable to Chavez as a political phenomenon in that Chavez was the head of the armed forces who used that institutional power to set up a rentier state, whereas Iglesias is, what, a university professor who engages in testimonial politics and whose height of power will be as a minor coalition partner to PSOE.  The entire political dynamics between Podemos and the Venezuelan coup are just incomparable, yet you genuinely meet a whole bunch of right-wing Spanish people who think Podemos could actually take over with an absolute majority and turn Spain into a rentier state.

I mean, I wasn't comparing the circumstances that brought Chavismo to power. It's exactly why I pointed out that Spain isn't Venezuela and isn't heading that direction.

But like you said, Iglesias "cozying up to such regimes" is precisely what drivers the comparisons, and at least among us Venezuelans, is why we don't look at Podemos with good eyes.

[kaoras]

But like you said, Iglesias "cozying up to such regimes" is precisely what drivers the comparisons, and at least among us Venezuelans, is why we don't look at Podemos with good eyes.

No, Podemos could denounce Chavismo all day and it wouldn't matter for the Spanish Press, and it also wouldn't matter for a lot of Venezuelans. Anything left wing will be automatically chavismo and "Así empezó Venezuela", that's how it works at both sides of the ocean.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/meme_ec/status/1369661033409822723

Sums it up quite well, IMO. My opinion is that this could backfire spectacularly. If there are elections in May, what will be the pandemic situation during that time? There is already talk of a 4th wave. Also, Ayuso is the favourite, but how will voters react to this? Especially in a time of deep social/economic crisis. She could pretty much have surprise with a combination of a possible 4th wave, the economic crisis and low turnout and the Catalan elections showed us that the only party, on the right, that benefits from low turnout is Vox.

We'll see.

[Zinneke]

But like you said, Iglesias "cozying up to such regimes" is precisely what drivers the comparisons, and at least among us Venezuelans, is why we don't look at Podemos with good eyes.

No, Podemos could denounce Chavismo all day and it wouldn't matter for the Spanish Press, and it also wouldn't matter for a lot of Venezuelans. Anything left wing will be automatically chavismo and "Así empezó Venezuela", that's how it works at both sides of the ocean.

ding ding ding
and you can replace Venezuelans with a lot of the South American diaspora in Spain, that is increasingly right-wing

meanwhile PP and Vox are actually engaging in behaviour much more similar to Chavismo, unironically.

But go look at the comments of FT articles with Spanish subscribers to the FT commetning, literally calling Sanchez are Latin American socialist and a golpista. This is the level of discourse that traverses large swathes of the Spanish Right, so called "educated" elite. That worships start up culture over the Atlantic but doesn't read a book that may broaden their horizons outside of Frederico's teachings.

[njwes]

So what's happened in the last 14 hours? 

[Velasco]

I need to meet more Spanish gals.

Ayy lmao

I'll grant you that Isabel Ayuso looks very beautiful but damn, way to make your entrance in a thread.

To give you an idea, Ayuso is akin to Sarah Palin and her slogan "socialism or freedom" is mimicked from Trump

The likeliest scenario is elections and the PSOE lacks a clear candidate. Ángel Gabilondo, who is a nice and civil professor of philosophy, has proven too soft against Ayuso. Defence minister Margarita Robles has denied rumours mounting at her. Más Madrid candidate will be likely the anesthetist Mónica García,  who has been the actual leader of the opposition and the main antagonist of Ayuso during the pandemic

Socialists submitted a no confidence motion in Castilla y León,  but the Cs deputy premier Francisco Igea denied support from his party.  Likewise PP and Cs confirm the stability of the coalition in Andalusia

[Skye]

FWIW, 3 polls have been released since Ayuso called for elections, none (I think?) of which are from respected pollsters. They're from SyM Consulting, Hamalgama for OK Diario, and electomanía.

[Velasco]

Interesting chronicle in El País

"Casado to Ayuso: 'if Cs dares in Murcia,  we press the nuclear button""

PSOE and Cs were engaged in secret negotiations for weeks, in order to arrange s motion of no confidence in the region of Murcia. Envoys of Pedro Sánchez had a hard time trying to vonvince Cs, as well as the PSOE chapter in Murcia. The former were doubtful un spite their strained relationship with the PP and some scsndals around the vaccination of high PP officials in Murcia; the latter were reluctant to cede the regional presidency to Cs.  "At last we pointed them out this was a bomb full of shrapnel with repercussions in all the electoral spectrum of the Spanish right ", say the envoys regarding their talks with the PSOE regional chapter. The secret talks between PSOE and Cs were interrupted by the Catalan elections, but they were resumed later and boosted by some concessions from the PP to Vox on education (the controversial "parental pin" allowing parents conscientious objection to with regards sex education or talks about LGTB affairs at schools)

The intent of the PSOE manouevre in Murcia was to dismantle the new PP attempt to unite the Spanish right behind its banner,. Socialist sources ad that "we understand the frustraron and the depression of Pablo Casado, because this bomb has exploded in his face provoking the loss of power (...) attained through local deals with Cs that masked the PP failure in elections"

Casado was always contrary to snap elections in Murcia and Madrid. He refrained from attacking Cs, because his dream is the recompisition of all the space right of the centre under the PP leadership. But the deal between PSOE and Cs caught him unaware, as well as the premier Fernando López Miras and the PP's secretary general Teodoro Garcia Egea, who happens to be from Murcia. Some Cs councilior who is friend of Lopez Miras warned the regional premier about the ongoing negotiation on Tuesday night. López Miras was somewhat surprised, because despite the increasing tensions within the regional government, he couldn't believe Cs was daring to make such a move. Still, López Miras told Casado that he refuses to call a snap election arguing that would be inconsistent with his previous stance on the matter.

But with Ayuso it's different, as she has been pushing for a year to call snap elections, in order to capitalize her confrontation with the central government (despite her disastrous handling of the pandemic, confrontation and aggressive communication are rewarding dividends to Ayuso in the polls). Casado finally gives free hands to Ayuso and they press the nuclear button. On the following morning, Ayuso attends a cabinet meeting and says nothing for more than an hour. Then she says her Cs counterparts "I want to tell you a thing: I call early elections". The Cs cabinet members cried in protest and promised they had nothing to do with the socialists,  to no avail

https://elpais.com/espana/2021-03-10/si-cs-se-atreve-en-murcia-apretamos-el-boton-nuclear.html
 

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Huh, so is this "break with the populares, ally with the PSOE" strategy limited to these two regions, or is Ciudadanos as a whole distancing from the right?

[Skye]

Huh, so is this "break with the populares, ally with the PSOE" strategy limited to these two regions, or is Ciudadanos as a whole distancing from the right?

Their alliances are apparently not going to break anywhere else other than in Murcia and the Community of Madrid, at least for now.

The Ayuntamiento de Madrid is not going to break up, for example. Apparently, the relationship between Almeida and Villacís isn't that bad.

Here in Castile and León, the PSOE announced a motion of no confidence after the whole Murcia-Madrid fiasco happened, but Cs stated they wouldn't join so it's set to fail since the PP and Cs have an absolute majority of the seats.