Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

The propaganda tecniques of the far-right party Vox

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2021-04-28/how-spains-far-right-vox-party-copies-nazi-propaganda-techniques.html

 The propaganda techniques that Spain’s far-right Vox party has adopted in its campaign for the Madrid regional election of May 4 were already tried and tested in Germany by the Nazis.

A campaign poster criticizing the cost to the state of foreign unaccompanied minors and the use of insults such as ‘rat’ are reminiscent of formulas used by Hitler to disseminate hate messages.

Both the campaign billboard in which Vox attacks the cost to the Madrid region of unaccompanied migrant minors, and the words used to dehumanize the leftist Unidas Podemos candidate, Pablo Iglesias, such as “rat” and “hunchback,” mirror strategies used by Hitler’s National Socialist German Workers’ Party to win over millions of Germans in their drive to persecute and annihilate not only the Jews but also the disabled and sick.

Using the word mena – an acronym with negative connotations for unaccompanied foreign minors – Vox’s juxtaposition of the €4,700 it allegedly costs to maintain a migrant minor with the €426 in pension payments received by “your grandma” has one clear goal: to vilify and expel unaccompanied children and teenagers from Spain, as Vox candidate Rocío Monasterio has made clear. The billboard has been strategically placed in various commuter train stations around Madrid, but not only is it inaccurate, it is also under investigation by the prosecutor’s office as an alleged hate crime.

So, now Ayuso almost, also, received bullets in her mail. The postal services in Barcelona intercepted a package with bullets addressed to her.

I rhink there was another message sent to María Gámez. Pure madness.

Hello! I've been lurking for some days now and I only wanted to express how grateful I am for you to be sharing so much information about the Madrid election, and the high quality of the debate here

Glad to have you here. Best regards

[Skye]

Today is the final day for polls to be legally released. So far a few polls have been released and the results have been mixed, ranging from the left overperforming to the right winning comfortably. I'll average the polls from this final week at the end of the day.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Today is the final day for polls to be legally released. So far a few polls have been released and the results have been mixed, ranging from the left overperforming to the right winning comfortably. I'll average the polls from this final week at the end of the day.

can't wait to hear about the "produce prices" then

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Former PM Zapatero has also been sent a letter with two bullets. Ominous trend...

[Mike88]

Former PM Zapatero has also been sent a letter with two bullets. Ominous trend...

Spain, get ahold of yourself!!

[MaxQue]

Can the procedure used to ban Batasuna be used to ban Vox?

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Can the procedure used to ban Batasuna be used to ban Vox?

In all likelihood, no. Not that it would be productive.

[Niemeyerite]

Today is the final day for polls to be legally released. So far a few polls have been released and the results have been mixed, ranging from the left overperforming to the right winning comfortably. I'll average the polls from this final week at the end of the day.

can't wait to hear about the "produce prices" then

I don't know if we'll get real or even semi-real polls this week. I wouldn't give a gram of credibility to Electomania "polls".

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

I don't know if we'll get real or even semi-real polls this week.

Maybe GESOP does some polling from the safety of Andorra? They usually just do general elections and Catalan elections, but this is a very important and standalone election, so I could see them making an exception.

I wouldn't give a gram of credibility to Electomania "polls".

Me neither. For starters self-selection sampling bias is a thing, and they’re obviously cooking the books. Not only that, they’re also pretty arrogant about it and self-important.

[Velasco]

I don't know if we'll get real or even semi-real polls this week. I wouldn't give a gram of credibility to Electomania "polls".

Suddenly it came to my mind all the time wasted in that cesspool and the far-right troll who went mad and attacked me in such a rabid fashion. It seems to me "pensador" or someone else have found a livelihood or a business

[Skye]

So here's an average of polls taken during the last week. I'm excluding: 1. Electomanía, 2. SYM (which is apparently trash tier), 3. Polls conducted twice (Only including the last one).

PP: 41%
PSOE: 22%
MM: 16%
VOX: 9%
UP: 7%
Cs: 4%

Blocs:

Right: 54%
Left: 45%

PP+VOX: 50%
Left: 45%

[Velasco]

I don't think we'll have polls from Andorra (GESOP was spotted on in the last Catalan elections, ftr), but El Periódico has its own panel of experts predicting the result for us

Today's prediction

PP 59 (40.5%)
PSOE 32 (22%)
MM 22 (15.7%)
UP 13 (9.4%)
VOX 10 (7.4%)
CS 0 (3.4%)

Not very different from other polls or 'panels' , aside that Vox and UP exchange places with regards polling average. The result predicted for the left is 2% above polling average,  similar to the 2019 result

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20210428/quien-ganara-elecciones-comunidad-madrid-2021-predicciones-11638576

[jaichind]

I don't think we'll have polls from Andorra (GESOP was spotted on in the last Catalan elections, ftr), but El Periódico has its own panel of experts predicting the result for us

Today's prediction

PP 59 (40.5%)
PSOE 32 (22%)
MM 22 (15.7%)
UP 13 (9.4%)
VOX 10 (7.4%)
CS 0 (3.4%)

Not very different from other polls or 'panels' , aside that Vox and UP exchange places with regards polling average. The result predicted for the left is 2% above polling average,  similar to the 2019 result

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20210428/quien-ganara-elecciones-comunidad-madrid-2021-predicciones-11638576

If these are the results for UP is this not a complete failure for Pablo Iglesias given the fact he gave up his DPM role to lead UP in this election.

[MRCVzla]

An interesting Madrid election map exercise (?)
In the 2011-2015 regional legislature, the  PP majority proposed to reform the regional electoral law inspired by the German mixed system, proposing that 1/3 of the regional MP's would be elected through single-member constituencies (at that time, 43/129 seats) and the other 2/3 PR under the D'Hondt method (as they are), to required to be approved, it would be necessary also reform the autonomous statute with 2/3 of the regional Assembly, obviously it failed because the lack of support, specially from the left. Apart from the fact that the design of the proposed districts did not have an equitable population among the constituencies (they vary between 30k in the Sierra Norte district to almost 250k in Fuencarral-El Pardo). Here the map with the original proposal.

Using that same constituency apportionment, these were the results by party and by bloc (left-right) in the 2019 regional elections:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

As PSOE was the most voted list then, it dominated in most constituencies, the PP would only win on its own those in the north of the capital and its western upper-income strongholds. Más Madrid was the most voted list in the Madrid Centro district and Cs in the Hortaleza-Barajas district. In the blocks it is the center-right that draws the map in blue leaving the center-left with its southwestern working-class strongholds. Very similar to what tack50 portrayed in his project of FPTP districts for Congress, also with 43 constituencies but with a corrected population proportion (of course, in the May regional election, was a more favourable result to the centre-left, compared to the November general one).

Electoral reform in Madrid is currently not an necessary issue due to their kind of fairer PR with 5% threshold, but in every election the size of the Assembly is increasing due to their attachment of 50.000 inhabitants per seat (from 129 in 2011 to 136 in 2021). In the sole debate of the campaign, only Vox cared about a electoral reform reducing (without proposing a fixed number) the size of the Assembly and also less regional ministers in the cabinet.

Historia Electoral has an interesting page applying different electoral systems to historical results, including this hybrid proposal: http://www.historiaelectoral.com/sistmadrid.html (also they do the same with other Spanish elections)

[MRCVzla]

Interesting isidewith-like tests (a voting one and a Madrilenian political culture) about Madrid election for anyone curious, it's on Spanish but with a good translator may can do the test): https://elecciones.cope.es/test-afinidad

Today is not only the last day of campaign, but it's also the Day of the Community of Madrid. Iglesias was absent in the official act and some things happened, may the most regular posters can deep more in the info of the last hours prior to the Tuesday' polls.

[Former President tack50]

Huh, interesting results for me on that test

Cs: 63%
PSOE: 55%
MM: 46%
PP: 34%
UP: 28%
Vox: 11%

I obviously can't vote, though if I could I'd vote PSOE. I like Cs campaign but they are a wasted vote and I don't like them that much (or hate the others enough) to waste my vote. It is also a bit of a "too little, too late turn to me"

[Velasco]

I was out this weekend and only watched a bit of the MM last rally yesterday's night in Twitch, with Iñigo Errejón and Mónica García.  I think there's some consensus in saying Más Madrid performed the best campaign and the short videos Errejon was iploading to Facebook or Twitter were excellent, well focused on issues that affect common people (such as inequality or mental health problems aggravated by the pandemic) and with a clear ñanguage, in the antipodes of demagoguery and affective polarization.  The Más Madrid candidate emphasizes that she represents empathy in opposition of the egotism and hatred of Ayuso and Monasterio. Yes, I'm rooting foe Más Madrid and perhaps biased. Said this, I'm not very optinistic about the chances of the leftwing parties to govern.

As for Pablo Iglesias,  keep in mind that before his landing in the Madrid campaign, UP was below the 5% threshold in some polls.  Regardless polls predict a modest result for UP, one of the main strategic goals is apparently fulfilled, that is ensuring parliamentary representation. I think Iglesias has shown signs of weariness during this campaign. After the elections Pablo Iglesias will be semi-retired, although it's possible he will continue as Podemos secretary general and member of the Madrid regional assembly for a while. From now on the UP's starring role will be for Yolanda Díaz, who is a PCE and not a Podemos or IU member

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

My final prediction:
PP: 39%, 56 seats
PSOE: 23%, 33 seats
MM: 15%, 22 seats
Vox: 10%, 15 seats
UP: 7%, 10 seats
C’s: 4%, 0 seats

PP+Vox: 49%, 71 seats
PSOE+MM+UP: 45%, 65 seats

[Skye]

By the way, the results page is up:

https://resultados2021.comunidad.madrid/Resultados/Comunidad-Madrid/0/es

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

I don't think it's going to be much surprise today, PP is going to win but they're going to make a coalition with VOX, slim majority of 71 seats to 65.

[mileslunn]

Pretty sure PP wins, real question is do they have a formal coalition with Vox or just rely on them to pass legislation.  Interesting question is will PP be able to get their tax cuts by 0.5% through?  That will make Madrid a low tax autonomous community by even more.  No doubt some autonomous communities with higher taxes might be worried more well to do will move there although not sure if Spain is like US where well to do leave higher taxed areas (i.e. New York to Florida or California to Texas) for lower taxed or are they more like Canadians where you don't get nearly as much movement (Alberta much lower than Ontario, yet large numbers move when oil prices high thus economy, not when low suggesting lower tax rate not a big determinant there).  My understanding is if tax cut goes through top rate will be 45% in Madrid which is a full 5% below Catalonia which is 50%, and 9% below Valencian Community which is now up to 54% so will this increase tensions with national government who has accused Madrid of fiscal dumping and favor fiscal harmonization?

[Velasco]

The article linked below explains a little what's at stake in today's elections. All or Nothing gamble for the PP candidate Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who shamelessly used the regional holiday on May 2 to compare the resistance of the Madrid's people against Napoleonic troops to her conflict with Pedro Sánchez and the central government. The left has been campaigning on getting out the vote, for a high mobilization in low income areas is neccessary to have chances of victory.  But high turnout might not be enough, because the opposite camp is highly motivated and Madrid has been consistently a rightwing stronghold for the last 26 years. The left only achieved two victories and one draw during this period:

● 2003 regional elections. PP came first, but PSOE and IU won a narrow majority. The defection of the PSOE deputies Tamayo and Sáez, whom tefused to back the investiture of a leftwing coalition government amidst a great scandal, led to the repetition of elections. Tne  PP won a narrow majority months later, inaugurating the era of Esperanza Aguirre and the big corruption scandals.

● 2004 regional elections.  The vote took place days after the Madrid train bombings. The PSOE led by JL Rodríguez Zapatero achieved a surprise victory.  In the province of Madrid PP and PSOE came virtually tied and the left won a majority adding the IU vote

● 2015 regional elections.  PP and Cs won a narrow majority over PSOE and Podemos. IU got 4.2% of the vote, failing to win seats because of the 5% threshold. In case IU had been above threshold, the left would have governed. However, the election result in terms of left/right vote was actually a tie or a very narrow rightwing victory if we add Vox and UPYD results to PP and Cs

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-05-03/madrid-regional-election-becomes-a-national-test-for-spain.html

Madrileños will on Tuesday go to the polls in a regional election that’s being widely viewed as a test with national repercussions in an increasingly polarized country.

The vote comes two years ahead of schedule following a decision by Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who is seeking to reinforce her hold over a political and economic powerhouse that’s been governed by her conservative Popular Party (PP) party for the last 26 years.

A lot is at stake for all parties involved whether they lie on the right, the left or the center of the political spectrum, and the campaign has been marked by epic rhetoric framing the ballot as a choice between “freedom and communism” for some, and between “democracy and fascism” for others. In a further sign of the current political climate, several candidates received death threats in the mail, forcing the government to step up security even as the campaign descended into a toxic exchange of accusations (...)

[Former President tack50]

Pretty sure PP wins, real question is do they have a formal coalition with Vox or just rely on them to pass legislation.  Interesting question is will PP be able to get their tax cuts by 0.5% through?  That will make Madrid a low tax autonomous community by even more.  No doubt some autonomous communities with higher taxes might be worried more well to do will move there although not sure if Spain is like US where well to do leave higher taxed areas (i.e. New York to Florida or California to Texas) for lower taxed or are they more like Canadians where you don't get nearly as much movement (Alberta much lower than Ontario, yet large numbers move when oil prices high thus economy, not when low suggesting lower tax rate not a big determinant there).  My understanding is if tax cut goes through top rate will be 45% in Madrid which is a full 5% below Catalonia which is 50%, and 9% below Valencian Community which is now up to 54% so will this increase tensions with national government who has accused Madrid of fiscal dumping and favor fiscal harmonization?

Well, Madrid has long attracted people from other parts of Spain. Detractors often call it a "vacuum cleaner" or "black hole" sucking up all of the population from the Castilles and other parts of the country (I am sure our Castillian posters could say more about the migration of young people to Madrid)

However I do not know if taxes are really the number 1 reason for that. People move to Madrid simply because it is the region that offers the best job opportunities and job market in the country. I imagine other major cities like Barcelona or even the Basque Country or Valencai might see lesser (but still significant) internal migrations.

Anything beyond that depends on who you ask.

Conservatives (particularly those from Madrid) will say that thanks to its low taxes Madrid is the number 1 region of Spain (recently surpassed Catalonia in raw GDP) and that if only other regions adopted Madrid's fiscally conservative policies they too could become huge powerhouses. This is part of what Ayuso means when she talks about "Freedom" and "the Madrid way of life" and what not.

People on the left, as well as peripheral nationalists meanwhile will say that Madrid does fiscal dumping to the rest of the country; that it has some built-in advantages due to being Spain's capital city and therefore having a lot of bureaucrats and businesses because of that; and that it should have higher taxes.

As you correctly note, the Sanchez government has pledged to introduce some sort of fiscal harmonization scheme, though we don't have any specifics yet.

I personally lean closer to the Madrid arguments here, I do believe in fiscal decentralization. Of course we need to make sure that poor regions are not left behind, probably by levying some sort of "solidarity tax" between rich and poor areas of the country; much like it happens at the EU level. (arguments like "Roma ladrona" or "Madrid ens roba" are dumb)

[Velasco]

Taxes in Andorra are even lower and recently there have been a controversy around certain youtubers moving their residence there, in order to avoid paying taxes in Spain.

Lower taxes attract millionaires to Madrid, for the higher incomes are the most favored by the tax system ruling in the Spain's capital region.

Low taxes are not the reason for economic prosperity in Madrid. Rather, the latter is a consequence of the capital status and a concentration of wealth favored by globalization.  Indeed, Madrid is like a black hole that empties the regions surrounding her. For that reason tax dumping and tax decentralization are damaging for Spain's territorial cohesion.

On the other hand, in this context of pandemic and social crisis, tax cuts mostly reveal a deep lack of solidarity with the rest of Spain. Moreover, they go against the global trend inaugurated by  the tax and stimulus plans proposed by Joe Biden

In my opinion, it's absolutely regrettable the left has been unable to campaign on a just tax system. Especially the PSOE

[Zinneke]

PSOE don't engage in it, because you can't talk about a fair taxation system without also calling into question the assymetry of Spain's federalism. That's a can of worms the party, internally, cannot open, even if it probably has some political capital in some places. But Puig for example governs with the regionalists in Valencia and has contracts to give out to his friends. PSC can't afford to lose any upper-middle-class-but-sane-hispanophile they have left. And in general the regional barons like having their credit cards and autonomous budgets.

Ayuso is engaging in Reaganite bunk economics with a sprinkling of Convergent burden avoiding, which is basically tax cuts for the rich without actually reducing spending and then blaming other actors within the federal model for creating debt. What she is proposing for Madrid is no better than what the Convergents were trying to carve out for Catalonia, hence my "Madrid Ens Roba redux" comment. Only she is going to be even more fiscally irresponsible.

A reminder that the reason Spanish debt caught people out during the Eurozone crisis was because the men in suits in Frankfurt were calculating only the federal government's debt and not the ones of the communities, where the Ayusos or Isabel Diaz (doesn't matter their political colour) were ordering the public leveraging of airports for every city and stadia for every country. Its better monitored now but the Spanish government in still the one people look for solutions to while the regional governments buy off xyz electorate with either tax cuts or good old fashioned clientelism.

Its a broken system. In the end its actually a good argument for independence of these places. I've made my peace with the dissolution of Belgium for similar reasons.