Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Former President tack50]

PSOE don't engage in it, because you can't talk about a fair taxation system without also calling into question the assymetry of Spain's federalism. That's a can of worms the party, internally, cannot open, even if it probably has some political capital in some places. But Puig for example governs with the regionalists in Valencia and has contracts to give out to his friends. PSC can't afford to lose any upper-middle-class-but-sane-hispanophile they have left. And in general the regional barons like having their credit cards and autonomous budgets.

Ayuso is engaging in Reaganite bunk economics with a sprinkling of Convergent burden avoiding, which is basically tax cuts for the rich without actually reducing spending and then blaming other actors within the federal model for creating debt. What she is proposing for Madrid is no better than what the Convergents were trying to carve out for Catalonia, hence my "Madrid Ens Roba redux" comment. Only she is going to be even more fiscally irresponsible.

A reminder that the reason Spanish debt caught people out during the Eurozone crisis was because the men in suits in Frankfurt were calculating only the federal government's debt and not the ones of the communities, where the Ayusos or Isabel Diaz (doesn't matter their political colour) were ordering the public leveraging of airports for every city and stadia for every country. Its better monitored now but the Spanish government in still the one people look for solutions to while the regional governments buy off xyz electorate with either tax cuts or good old fashioned clientelism.

Its a broken system. In the end its actually a good argument for independence of these places. I've made my peace with the dissolution of Belgium for similar reasons.

It is worth noting that (at least for now) Madrid is not a particularly fiscally irresponsible region. At least on paper.

In 2020 it pretty much ranked right in the middle in terms of the deficit, with a -0,05% deficit. It ran a bigger, -0.24% deficit in 2019 though interestingly it was the 4th best performing region that year (with the top 3 being Navarra and the Basque Country which should really be excluded due to their different systems; and the Canary Islands interestingly)

Madrid also had the 2nd lowest debt in all of Spain, again only behind the Canaries.

Of course you could argue this data is meaningless because of how Spanish regions get funded (I like to think of it as a parent giving an allowance to its kids which idk if it is a good comparison); or to built in advantages due to capital concentration and what not. But Madrid's record on debt and the deficit is not a particularly bad one


Sidenote: I find my region's record on this absolutely impressive by the way given it is one of the poorest in the country! CC may have been a bunch of corrupt f*** who kept the region dead last on every metric from education and healthcare to unemployment and GDP/capita and inequality, but they have a surprisingly magnificent record on keeping a balanced budget! Truly impressive stuff so credit where credit is due

[Mike88]

Turnout update 1pm:

2021: 28.44% (+2.26%)
2019: 26.18%

[Velasco]

Sidenote: I find my region's record on this absolutely impressive by the way given it is one of the poorest in the country! CC may have been a bunch of corrupt f*** who kept the region dead last on every metric from education and healthcare to unemployment and GDP/capita and inequality, but they have a surprisingly magnificent record on keeping a balanced budget! Truly impressive stuff so credit where credit is due

It seems to me that having a balanced budget is more easy when you have no mercy in cutting social spending. I'm not impressed at all at the performance of Madrid or the Canary Islands. Madrid is the richest region, but the pandemic has revealed the weaknesses caused by the lack of appropiate funding that affect the public healthcare system. The Canary Islands have the worst healthcare system, according to surveys that measure the opinion of users (Basque Country and Asturias are usually on the top of the ranking). Thankfully the archipielago has not been hardly beaten by the virus and now there 's a decent government replacing that bunch of corrupt neoliberals.

PSOE don't engage in it, because you can't talk about a fair taxation system without also calling into question the assymetry of Spain's federalism. That's a can of worms the party, internally, cannot open, even if it probably has some political capital in some places. But Puig for example governs with the regionalists in Valencia and has contracts to give out to his friends. PSC can't afford to lose any upper-middle-class-but-sane-hispanophile they have left. And in general the regional barons like having their credit cards and autonomous budgets.

Ayuso is engaging in Reaganite bunk economics with a sprinkling of Convergent burden avoiding, which is basically tax cuts for the rich without actually reducing spending and then blaming other actors within the federal model for creating debt. What she is proposing for Madrid is no better than what the Convergents were trying to carve out for Catalonia, hence my "Madrid Ens Roba redux" comment. Only she is going to be even more fiscally irresponsible.

A reminder that the reason Spanish debt caught people out during the Eurozone crisis was because the men in suits in Frankfurt were calculating only the federal government's debt and not the ones of the communities, where the Ayusos or Isabel Diaz (doesn't matter their political colour) were ordering the public leveraging of airports for every city and stadia for every country. Its better monitored now but the Spanish government in still the one people look for solutions to while the regional governments buy off xyz electorate with either tax cuts or good old fashioned clientelism.

Its a broken system. In the end its actually a good argument for independence of these places. I've made my peace with the dissolution of Belgium for similar reasons.

Spain needs desperately a comprehensive federal reform that clarifies the roles of central and regional governments. Currently we don't have a proper federal system based on co-responsibility, but a rather disfunctional model of decentralization called "state of the sutonomies". Federalism in Spain has to be neccessarily asymmetric,  due to the existence of historical nationalities and the deeply entrenched special regime of Basque Country and Navarra. Pasqual Maragall advocated "asymmetric federalism" from Catalonia back in the day -and I think it was not a bad idea, despite he was lambasted from every side. I'm afraid that Spain is even more complicated than Belgium

[Skye]

You can start leaving your Fs in the chat boys.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Vox is complaining that their voters are being misled because their ballots are placed next to Volt’s, which according to national spokesperson Iván Espinosa de los Monteros and others could lead to accidental votes for the pan-European party. This is, of course, quite good publicity for Volt (certainly much better than what they’ve gotten throughout the campaign).

As for turnout, it seems to be going up in both left-wing and right-wing strongholds, though the trend is more consistent in the latter ones. Not good news for the left, as they are the ones who really need to turn out their base. We will have more info at 18:00, when the next turnout update is being published.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Turnout is skyrocketing by ten points in the latest update. It will be record-breaking, above 70%. Nevertheless, the increase, while much larger, seems to be following the same patterns as the one at 13:00.

[Skye]

Turnout is skyrocketing in the peripheral cities of the Madrid metro area, both in the left-leaning red belt to the south and the right-wing wealthy suburbs to the north west.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The last time that turnout broke 70%:



I think we might see somewhat of a redux: turnout skyrockets, PP dominates, PSOE falls, left of the PSOE improves its standing.

[Velasco]

Turnout map

https://twitter.com/Guerraeterna/status/1389636538296905733?s=19

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

GAD3 exit poll:

PP: 43,7% 62-65 seats
PSOE: 18,4%, 25-28 seats
MM: 16,1%, 21-24 seats
Vox: 9,2%, 12-14 seats
UP: 7,9%, 10-11 seats
C’s: 3,2%, 0 seats

Sociométrica
PP: 40% 58-62 seats
MM: 19,8% 26-29 seats
PSOE: 19,3%26-29 seats
Vox: 10,6% 13-15 seats
UP: 5,2% , 0-8 seats
C’s: 4%, 0 seats

[Mike88]

RTVE says that with the mail ballots, turnout could reach 80%.

About the exit polls/predictions, the results are fairly what was expected, IMO.

[Velasco]

I don't think the result will be as good for Ayuso and Monasterio as Michavila says, but anyway.  It's clear the left won't make it. Más Madrid will get a good result, but probably it won't overtake the PSOE. D.E.P. Cs; Vox is now the indispensable ally

[mileslunn]

Looks like right wins as expected, but seems PP and Vox underperformed polls although still likely form government.

[MRCVzla]

Average of the 5 polls released after 20:00 CET:
PP 42.4% (58-64)
PSOE 19.6% (26-30)
MM 16.9% (22-28)
VOX 9.1% (10-15)
UP 7.1% (7-11)
Cs 3-4% (0)

PP+VOX 73-76
PSOE+MM+UP 60-63

[Lumine]

RIP C's, again. It really is a shame how the party - which had such potential - has so thoroughly imploded after so many bad decisions, doomed to go down like the CDS/UPYD despite having come so close to success.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

With almost a fifth of the vote counted, the right is leading by double digits, both in terms of percentage of the vote and seats. It’s only going to get worse, as Madrid has a heavy left-wing counting bias. A right-wing landslide is very likely.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is an outright PP majority possible?

[Geoffrey Howe]

I'm afraid I don't really follow Spanish politics - what is the upshot of these results?

[Oryxslayer]

I'm afraid I don't really follow Spanish politics - what is the upshot of these results?

The most likely outcome from these results is that Ayuso just secured her place as Casado's opponent for PP leadership, and likely his eventual replacement.

[Mike88]

PSOE has only won in El Atazar. Everything else, so far, is a sea of PP blue.

[Skye]

56% in

PP: 43.8% - 64
PSOE: 17.8% - 25
MM: 16.9% - 24
VOX: 9.2% - 13
UP: 7.4% - 10
Cs: 3.3% - F

Right: 56.3%
Left: 42.1%

[Velasco]

The PP could govern in its own, because it has more seats than the left and Vox would not vote against. They hope to reach as nuch as 66 seats. Terrible

Casado soeaking now.  "Ayuso is the regional president Madrid deserves". True

Casado also says "freedom" won. Not sure if he means the neoliberal or the Trumpist definition of "freedom", but whatever

[Velasco]

I heard rhe PP is leading in Puente de Vallecas. 26% plurality or so 

Salvini congratulates Ayuso

[Skye]

I heard rhe PP is leading in Puente de Vallecas. 26% plurality or so 

Hope this doesn't hold, I'd have to eat crow if it does 😬

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't Puente de Vallecas among the safest districts in Madrid for the left?