NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Pollster]

NRSC affiliate going up with a last-ditch effort to stop Bolduc/boost Morse.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/31/republican-super-pac-2-million-new-hampshire-senate-primary-00054402?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000161-0ed9-d62b-a3f5-deddd8540000&nlid=630318

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NRSC affiliate going up with a last-ditch effort to stop Bolduc/boost Morse.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/31/republican-super-pac-2-million-new-hampshire-senate-primary-00054402?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000161-0ed9-d62b-a3f5-deddd8540000&nlid=630318

Too late

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs weren't winning NH without SUNUNU or PA wiithout McCormick anyways

Oz and Cox and Bailey were the perfect candidates to defeat for D's in November, but the Rs blocked Voting Rights which enjoyed a majority of support because we know SCOTUS  is Gerrymandering

[Pollster]

NRSC affiliate going up with a last-ditch effort to stop Bolduc/boost Morse.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/31/republican-super-pac-2-million-new-hampshire-senate-primary-00054402?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000161-0ed9-d62b-a3f5-deddd8540000&nlid=630318

Too late

Not necessarily - have heard that engagement with this race is very low and more of the primary voters' attention is on the Congressional races, particularly Mowers/Leavitt.

[Xing]

If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

[MT Treasurer]

If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

Barnes is not winning on a night when Hassan is losing, and more likely than not Republicans will end up with 54 seats in the Senate if they manage to win in NH.

This is an incredibly overhyped race (and would have been even with Sununu, who chose not to run for a reason) that will only flip on an extremely bad night for Democrats (call it a 'wave' if you want).

[Xing]

If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

Barnes is not winning on a night when Hassan is losing, and more likely than not Republicans will end up with 54 seats in the Senate if they manage to win in NH.

I know, I was saying that if I could specifically choose which way each race would go to get to a 50/50 Senate, that’s what I would choose, even if in reality Hassan would be easily winning if Barnes were to win (and Masto would almost certainly win as well.)

[MT Treasurer]

If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

Barnes is not winning on a night when Hassan is losing, and more likely than not Republicans will end up with 54 seats in the Senate if they manage to win in NH.

I know, I was saying that if I could specifically choose which way each race would go to get to a 50/50 Senate, that’s what I would choose, even if in reality Hassan would be easily winning if Barnes were to win (and Masto would almost certainly win as well.)

I see. There’s still a surprising number of people who seem convinced that Democrats will win easily in November because of Roe/Trump/inflation policy but who also think that Morse winning the Republican nomination in NH instead of Bolduc will somehow make a difference in that it will turn this into a competitive race. It doesn’t make sense — if you think there’ll be a Democratic sweep in November, the Republican candidate in NH won’t matter at all.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

Barnes is not winning on a night when Hassan is losing, and more likely than not Republicans will end up with 54 seats in the Senate if they manage to win in NH.

This is an incredibly overhyped race (and would have been even with Sununu, who chose not to run for a reason) that will only flip on an extremely bad night for Democrats (call it a 'wave' if you want).

I agree on the former but if Morse is the nominee, I wouldn't be surprised if AZ GA stay D and NH flips. As you can probably tell,, I expect this to still be a strong republican year, which I agree with you would be necessary for something like NH to flip. But candidate quality does matter despite what certain blue/green avatars on the site have said(not you lol)

[Xing]

If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

Barnes is not winning on a night when Hassan is losing, and more likely than not Republicans will end up with 54 seats in the Senate if they manage to win in NH.

I know, I was saying that if I could specifically choose which way each race would go to get to a 50/50 Senate, that’s what I would choose, even if in reality Hassan would be easily winning if Barnes were to win (and Masto would almost certainly win as well.)

I see. There’s still a surprising number of people who seem convinced that Democrats will win easily in November because of Roe/Trump/inflation policy but who also think that Morse winning the Republican nomination in NH instead of Bolduc will somehow make a difference in that it will turn this into a competitive race. It doesn’t make sense — if you think there’ll be a Democratic sweep in November, the Republican candidate in NH won’t matter at all.

I’d agree that if Democrats lose NH, there’s absolutely no way they’re holding the Senate, though I do think Morse gives Republicans a bit more hope here than Bolduc would, and it’s possible that this could become seat 53 instead of 54 for the Republicans.

[Roll Roons]

Hmm: https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1565743108805087234?cxt=HHwWhMC-nfrD0bo...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hmm: https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1565743108805087234?cxt=HHwWhMC-nfrD0bo...

Well they better get Morse over the finish line or their toast here

[Pollster]

And like clockwork...the Democrats are going in.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/02/dem-super-pac-republican-new-hampshire-senate-primary-00054690

[SnowLabrador]

I hate this strategy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I hate this strategy.

I mean if it truly is a neutral year, it wouldn't matter who they nominate. But in a republican leaning year it might make a difference. Bolduc would likely not be favored whereas Morse would have a good shot in the latter scenario

[wbrocks67]

SLF is willing to throw $23M into NH with Bolduc the likely nominee, but the RGA isn't spending anything for Mastriano?

Like Bolduc is the worst possible outcome for the GOP, why would they waste $23M there on that race? That's $50M between Ohio and NH that should just be so unnecessary for them to spend, and $50M that's not going to actual swing state competitive races.

[Spectator]

SLF is willing to throw $23M into NH with Bolduc the likely nominee, but the RGA isn't spending anything for Mastriano?

Like Bolduc is the worst possible outcome for the GOP, why would they waste $23M there on that race? That's $50M between Ohio and NH that should just be so unnecessary for them to spend, and $50M that's not going to actual swing state competitive races.

They’re probably gonna cancel if Bolduc wins the primary.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.wmur.com/article/new-hampshire-senate-race-chris-sununu-chuck-morse/41124111#

Sununu is endorsing Morse

Something of a coordinated effort as of late to boost Morse, but it's probably way too late at this point. If this effort had started a few weeks ago, maybe it would have been more effective, but at this point I am not sure it makes much of a difference. I guess maybe if that Bolduc support was really soft it will help, but the gap between the two is pretty sizeable.

[wbrocks67]

Also, do GOP primary voters care who Sununu endorses at this point? Maybe he has more weight than say Baker or Hogan, but don't many still consider him a RINO?

[Brother Jonathan]

Also, do GOP primary voters care who Sununu endorses at this point? Maybe he has more weight than say Baker or Hogan, but don't many still consider him a RINO?

I don't know that they consider him a RINO, some do but most generally approve of him, but no I don't think his endorsement on its own is worth very much.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1570425679887343624

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1570425679887343624

LOL.
Can you believe this sh**t?
First get the NutJob trump-cultist electorate in your state to support you, then after using them, stab them in the heart with "Biden is the legitimate President of this country."
Fools. The whole lot of them.

[prag_prog]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1570425679887343624

how shameless is this dude lol.

[David Hume]

“The election was not stolen ... President Biden is the legitimate president of this country.”


https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1570425679887343624

[prag_prog]

lol this is just way too funny. He has now right away sent a statement to his supporters that he still thinks election is stolen. So shameless

https://twitter.com/GatesMacpherson/status/1570789802878070787