NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[wbrocks67]

This is totally the behaviour of a party riding a wave.

Are you expecting Democrats to keep control of the Senate? And you believe we are in a neutral environment?

Who really knows though? But the point still stands. NH was always gonna be a heavy lift for the GOP, but if this was an R+6 year like some members like to act, Hassan would have been in danger, even with a terrible candidate like Bolduc.

This also stands that likely most of the public polling showing Hassan up ~6-8 was likely more on the money than stuff like the Fabrizio poll today that only had her up 2. Which means Fabrizio-only polls should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

I've always thought Hassan was favored, so I'm not surprised Republicans are conceding here. But I maintain that Hassan would be in jeopardy if Sununu were the Republican nominee. At any rate, you probably believe that the Democrats will retain the Senate, not losing any of their seats (and having a net gain with Pennsylvania) and that Republicans will only take back the House by the skin of their teeth.

Why do you care what I believe?

[Calthrina950]

This is totally the behaviour of a party riding a wave.

Are you expecting Democrats to keep control of the Senate? And you believe we are in a neutral environment?

Who really knows though? But the point still stands. NH was always gonna be a heavy lift for the GOP, but if this was an R+6 year like some members like to act, Hassan would have been in danger, even with a terrible candidate like Bolduc.

This also stands that likely most of the public polling showing Hassan up ~6-8 was likely more on the money than stuff like the Fabrizio poll today that only had her up 2. Which means Fabrizio-only polls should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

I've always thought Hassan was favored, so I'm not surprised Republicans are conceding here. But I maintain that Hassan would be in jeopardy if Sununu were the Republican nominee. At any rate, you probably believe that the Democrats will retain the Senate, not losing any of their seats (and having a net gain with Pennsylvania) and that Republicans will only take back the House by the skin of their teeth.

Why do you care what I believe?

You're very insistent about it, showering cold water on anything favorable to Republicans and praising anything - such as this move by Republicans in NH - that implies a Democratic wave.

[SnowLabrador]

Watch Hassan only win by 1-2 points even after Bolduc gets triaged.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Watch Hassan only win by 1-2 points even after Bolduc gets triaged.

I think Hassan will win by more even if the GCB for the House races is close. In these small homogenous New England states like NH and ME, candidates tend to see massive overperformances from the baseline such as Susan Collins and Jeannee Shaheen in 2020 (Shaheen's 15%+ win is underdiscussed).

Also, NH polling if anything has generally underestimated Democrats if anything, even when polling overestimates Dems nationally. There's no precedent for any sort of massive errors in Republicans favor unlike much of the midwest. I suppose it's possible but there's no reason to suddenly expect it to change.

[wbrocks67]

This is totally the behaviour of a party riding a wave.

Are you expecting Democrats to keep control of the Senate? And you believe we are in a neutral environment?

Who really knows though? But the point still stands. NH was always gonna be a heavy lift for the GOP, but if this was an R+6 year like some members like to act, Hassan would have been in danger, even with a terrible candidate like Bolduc.

This also stands that likely most of the public polling showing Hassan up ~6-8 was likely more on the money than stuff like the Fabrizio poll today that only had her up 2. Which means Fabrizio-only polls should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

I've always thought Hassan was favored, so I'm not surprised Republicans are conceding here. But I maintain that Hassan would be in jeopardy if Sununu were the Republican nominee. At any rate, you probably believe that the Democrats will retain the Senate, not losing any of their seats (and having a net gain with Pennsylvania) and that Republicans will only take back the House by the skin of their teeth.

Why do you care what I believe?

You're very insistent about it, showering cold water on anything favorable to Republicans and praising anything - such as this move by Republicans in NH - that implies a Democratic wave.

Do you think this implies a red wave?

[Calthrina950]

This is totally the behaviour of a party riding a wave.

Are you expecting Democrats to keep control of the Senate? And you believe we are in a neutral environment?

Who really knows though? But the point still stands. NH was always gonna be a heavy lift for the GOP, but if this was an R+6 year like some members like to act, Hassan would have been in danger, even with a terrible candidate like Bolduc.

This also stands that likely most of the public polling showing Hassan up ~6-8 was likely more on the money than stuff like the Fabrizio poll today that only had her up 2. Which means Fabrizio-only polls should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

I've always thought Hassan was favored, so I'm not surprised Republicans are conceding here. But I maintain that Hassan would be in jeopardy if Sununu were the Republican nominee. At any rate, you probably believe that the Democrats will retain the Senate, not losing any of their seats (and having a net gain with Pennsylvania) and that Republicans will only take back the House by the skin of their teeth.

Why do you care what I believe?

You're very insistent about it, showering cold water on anything favorable to Republicans and praising anything - such as this move by Republicans in NH - that implies a Democratic wave.

Do you think this implies a red wave?

No, although as I've said, I've viewed Hassan as a favorite ever since Sununu decided not to run. She dodged a bullet when he decided not to. But all of the other competitive races are moving in the direction of the Republicans. Even in wave years, you'll have states that get away from the victor party (as Colorado, Delaware, and Nevada did in 2010 and Florida did in 2018).

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Dread it. Run from it. MAGA Maggie arrives all the same.

This is true, in a way. Hassan has been releasing ads casting herself as a bipartisan moderate and calling for more border security. Many other Democrats have been trying to depict themselves in a similar manner, claiming that they are "standing up to Biden."

The NHDP is actually doing this on the Congressional level. Pappas is running ads stressing his bipartisanship and his approach on crime, but is also running ads on the economy. As is Hassan.

Meanwhile, the gubernatorial campaign against Sununu is almost almost entirely abortion, despite Sununu signing off on doubling our electric bills to preserve Eversource's record corporate profits and Brownbacking our public schools. It's very weird because they're objectively good at the federal level but run their state campaigns like a dirtbag left caricature.

[Woody]

I like to think of this as a consolation prize. At this stage we're just toying with the Dems.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bolduc is honestly just a cherry on top for the GOP if he wins. They’d already swept the battlegrounds if he makes it in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where will this money go? Pennsylvania?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan wasn't gonna win by a landslide anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I like to think of this as a consolation prize. At this stage we're just toying with the Dems.

Do you honestly believe if Rs get in things are gonna change no they won't inflation is gonna stay at 8 percent all Rs are gonna do is cut employees at the Federal Govt and cut spending that has zero to do with inflation

That's what Trump did they had a shutdown at Feds because Trump cut Govt spending but he gave out stimulus checks there are no more of those, I'd I thought Rs would do better than Ds I would be donating to Ds, Rick Dcott said they won't find 87 K IRS employees

[Ferguson97]

I like to think of this as a consolation prize. At this stage we're just toying with the Dems.

Conceding a Senate seat to own the libs? That's a new one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I like to think of this as a consolation prize. At this stage we're just toying with the Dems.

Conceding a Senate seat to own the libs? That's a new one.

A practice that should be highly encouraged.

[MT Treasurer]

From the Suffolk poll (link: https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2022/09/29/13/53/2022-nh-poll)-

Among women voters Hassan dominates by a whopping 29 points (60%-31%), while Bolduc leads Hassan by 13 points among male voters. Hassan has made reproductive health care and abortion a centerpiece of her campaign, and the US Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in June has created higher voter intensity as 76% of New Hampshire women say they are “extremely motivated” to vote this November, compared to 71% of men.

applying cook pvi, this means that nh women have a pvi of d+10 and that nh men have a pvi of r+3 in a 50/50 year, so in a r+4 year nh women vote d+6 and nh men r+7 and bolduc wins by the skin of his teeth, maybe even in a r+3 year if you factor in nh's elasticity score on 538

In all seriousness (and I know I’m giving in to past urges here), does anyone else find it highly amusing that NH was hyped up as the "marquee/bellwether race" in 2014, 2016, and 2022, and that it now again looks like it will be one of the very few bright spots for Democrats, just like in 2014 and 2016? 

Almost like NH's 'elasticity' (Nate Silver actually gave it the highest 'elasticity score' of any state in 2020) and 'swing state' status are highly exaggerated, esp. at the federal level!

[Figueira]

Bolduc is an underdog but I think he can be carried over the finish line in a big wave.  But his seat doesn’t decide the majority.

That's a bad way of thinking about the Senate. The difference between 51 seats and 54 seats for Republicans could be the difference between losing and keeping the Senate in 2026.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Bolduc is an underdog but I think he can be carried over the finish line in a big wave.  But his seat doesn’t decide the majority.

That's a bad way of thinking about the Senate. The difference between 51 seats and 54 seats for Republicans could be the difference between losing and keeping the Senate in 2026.

As we saw with Bill Nelson in 2018, every seat counts. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolduc is an underdog but I think he can be carried over the finish line in a big wave.  But his seat doesn’t decide the majority.

That's a bad way of thinking about the Senate. The difference between 51 seats and 54 seats for Republicans could be the difference between losing and keeping the Senate in 2026.

As we saw with Bill Nelson in 2018, every seat counts. 

Somewhere there's a universe where Ds were one seat short in 2020 and Nelson's close loss could be argued as having cost Ds a Senate majority.
Every seat counts.

[MT Treasurer]

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is recommitting resources into the New Hampshire Senate race, according to an NRSC official, just days after the Senate GOP's top super PAC cancelled its spending on behalf of nominee Don Bolduc. [...]

The NRSC will be spending about $1 million on a new ad financed jointly between the committee and the Bolduc campaign. The spot will begin airing later this week.

The NRSC's decision comes days after the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund announced it was withdrawing $5.6 million in ad reservations in New Hampshire — moving those funds into the tightening Pennsylvania Senate race. [...]

"Our polling, along with recent public polling, shows that this race is in the margin of error and winnable. The NRSC is proud to stand with General Bolduc. We’re going to win this race so Don Bolduc can bring real leadership back to this Senate seat," NRSC chairman Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) tells Axios.

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc

[soundchaser]

No matter what happens in two weeks, I expect Mitch McConnell will want to fire Rick Scott into the sun.

[wbrocks67]

I'm surprised Bolduc can even afford a joint-ad if they're splitting it half. He only raised $1M the entire last quarter.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/jeremykauffman/status/1584639613720989696

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kdonohoenh/status/1585673200305901574

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/kdonohoenh/status/1585673200305901574

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kdonohoenh/status/1585673200305901574

https://melmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/66f-1.jpg

Keep crying about the election you lost, it only makes you look more deranged