NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[NewYorkExpress]

Moving this one back to Lean R pending polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Moving this one back to Lean R pending polling.

.
D's are gonna win the 276/299/304 blue Wall 🧱🧱🧱

[Brother Jonathan]

Morse would be a decent enough candidate against Hassan, but I do think the primary could be a tough climb for him, especially if it is just Morse and Bolduc. Bolduc might even have some advantages right now just from slightly higher name recognition from running in 2020.

[Not Me, Us]

Morse strikes me as a pretty solid candidate, and probably the best Rs could hope for besides Sununu. Democrats should not take this race for granted.

[Brittain33]

Sununu was clear-eyed about what being a Senator is all about.

https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1483452347112173574?s=21

[Meatball Ron]

Sununu was clear-eyed about what being a Senator is all about.

This is interesting and the candor is appreciated, but he's going to look like a total hypocrite when he then just goes ahead and endorses whoever the GOP nominee is (seeing that this person will be involved in the obstruction he claims to disapprove of)

[Brittain33]

Sununu was clear-eyed about what being a Senator is all about.

This is interesting and the candor is appreciated, but he's going to look like a total hypocrite when he then just goes ahead and endorses whoever the GOP nominee is (seeing that this person will be involved in the obstruction he claims to disapprove of)

I don’t think so, he can easily say Hassan does the same thing for Republican presidents, so it’s just about him not wanting to waste his own time.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sununu was clear-eyed about what being a Senator is all about.

https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1483452347112173574?s=21

Interesting perspective, but overall something you have to value. Politics should be about making people's lives better and sometimes work with other elected officials for said purpose, even you don't share a lot of their ideological viewpoints. Officials serving in executive branches tend to have a better understanding for that as they actually need to do things. As senator, you can just be against stuff when your party isn't in power. From that viewpoint, Sununu's decision makes sense to me.

[Ferguson97]

Biden approval: 49/50 (-1) (was -9 before)

Among NH women: +41 (70% Approve, 29% Disapprove)
Among NH men: -42 (29% Approve, 71% Disapprove)

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/682/

Hassan favorability: +3 (43% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable) (was -10 in November)

Among NH women: +43 (64/21)
Among NH men: -38 (21/59)

Yes, you saw that right: Those are 83- and 81-point gender gaps, respectively. MS-type polarization, guys.

Wtf

I guess my gender polarization prediction is coming true?

[SnowLabrador]

Biden approval: 49/50 (-1) (was -9 before)

Among NH women: +41 (70% Approve, 29% Disapprove)
Among NH men: -42 (29% Approve, 71% Disapprove)

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/682/

Hassan favorability: +3 (43% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable) (was -10 in November)

Among NH women: +43 (64/21)
Among NH men: -38 (21/59)

Yes, you saw that right: Those are 83- and 81-point gender gaps, respectively. MS-type polarization, guys.

Wtf

I guess my gender polarization prediction is coming true?

It's a junk poll.

[Senator Incitatus]

Still an open question how much political capital Sununu will spend supporting the nominee. Baker has conspicuously not supported most other Republican candidates, especially for federal office, but Sununu has more leeway.

[free my dawg]

Morse would be a decent enough candidate against Hassan, but I do think the primary could be a tough climb for him, especially if it is just Morse and Bolduc. Bolduc might even have some advantages right now just from slightly higher name recognition from running in 2020.

And with that, it's going to be more:

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1480999400046354436

Kevin Smith's had an interesting career. His first gig was as a part of Cornerstone, a think tank that stressed social conservatism over fiscal conservatism. He was staunchly pro-life and anti-gay marriage 10 years ago. He decided to run for governor and lost the primary to noted meme Ovide Lamontagne. Since then, he's pivoted to fiscal conservatism and good governance as Londonderry's town manager, cutting property taxes, attracting business, and increasing revenue.

I'm actually pretty bullish on his campaign. Even despite his poor fundraising in his NH-Gov, Smith was a good candidate who outperformed expectations. I think he's by far the best candidate to win the general but with the split and an imminent Trump endorsement it's likely Bolduc will win and throw the seat to Hassan.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1484623703157653505?t=U4jFtG8NcAn3BXPqa...
 
Moderate, sensible Republican btw.

[2016]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll
https://twitter.com/UNHSurveyCenter/status/1486367712196526081

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't gonna be low in Approvals on Nov 22

[free my dawg]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll
https://twitter.com/UNHSurveyCenter/status/1486367712196526081

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

I can't wait to see her approval numbers. Incredible schadenfreude after she sold us out to the Other NRA.

[MT Treasurer]

Shaheen won by 3 points in 2014 when Obama's job approval in the state was 43/56 (-13). Given that Biden's recent decline in NH (39/60) is driven by a quarter of Democrats disapproving of him (those people will eventually come home and they certainly won’t vote against Hassan), I expect his numbers to be very close to Obama 2014 when all is said and done. I’m not sure if that’s enough for the GOP to flip the seat given that the state is even more Democratic today than in 2014 (on the other hand, Hassan certainly doesn’t have the brand that helped out Shaheen and is just a laughably inept incumbent in general).

Even if Hassan is reelected, I think the race will be closer than NH-SEN 2014 (and quite possibly the closest Senate race in the country).

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Shaheen won by 3 points in 2014 when Obama's job approval in the state was 43/56 (-13). Given that Biden's recent decline in NH (39/60) is driven by a quarter of Democrats disapproving of him (those people will eventually come home and they certainly won’t vote against Hassan), I expect his numbers to be very close to Obama 2014 when all is said and done. I’m not sure if that’s enough for the GOP to flip the seat given that the state is even more Democratic today than in 2014 (on the other hand, Hassan certainly doesn’t have the brand that helped out Shaheen and is just a laughably inept incumbent in general).

Even if Hassan is reelected, I think the race will be closer than NH-SEN 2014 (and quite possibly the closest Senate race in the country).

The state isn't that much more democratic now than in 2014, it's remained pretty stable.
A lot of the disapproval of Obama in 2014 was also from the left, remember that's what led to Bernie's success. Also bad approval from the left also means many younger or progressive voters might not turn out, which is especially important in a state like New Hampshire where many democrats are more progressive. And like you said, Hassan is a WAY weaker incumbent than Shaheen. I think the seat is tilt R, closer to lean R than tilt D.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/morse4senate/status/1487447955674128386?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan isnt gonna lose

[Ferguson97]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

Disapproval =/= wouldn’t vote for them

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

Disapproval =/= wouldn’t vote for them

This is true.

[Ferguson97]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

Disapproval =/= wouldn’t vote for them

This is true.

It’s also why I’m not convinced Biden or Harris are DOA in 2024, especially running against Trump — who also had catastrophic approvals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

Disapproval =/= wouldn’t vote for them

This is true.

It’s also why I’m not convinced Biden or Harris are DOA in 2024, especially running against Trump — who also had catastrophic approvals.

It's plainly ridiculous to see anyone as DOA in an election three years in advance, period (with some select exceptions).
Trump wasn't DOA in late 2017, Biden isn't DOA now.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/LPNH/status/1488159030640062465

The Libertarians have their candidate, Jeremy Kaufmann. Kaufmann is a big Mises Caucus guy, and in my opinion is a Republican plant. I've heard he's toyed around with the idea of the LP not campaigning to boost GOP candidates, and he has expressed outright support for Trump before.

Needless to say, I won't be voting for Kaufmann. Amazing how there are three GE candidates and all of them are Republicans.