NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, given both the VT and CT results, I would expect NH Rs to now nominate the Trumpiest candidate. Has Trump endorsed Bolduc here?

[Brother Jonathan]

Yeah, given both the VT and CT results, I would expect NH Rs to now nominate the Trumpiest candidate. Has Trump endorsed Bolduc here?

No, though he may. It is notable that Corey Lewandowski has been critical of Bolduc, and has published articles publicly stating he doesn't think Trump should endorse him.

https://dailycaller.com/2022/08/07/opinion-republicans-can-win-big-in-new-hampshire-if-trump-backs-the-right-candidate-heres-who-he-should-avoid-lewandowski/


So the Trump people on the ground in NH seem somewhat cool on Bolduc, which may keep Trump from getting involved. I don't think it changes voter perception on who is closest to Trump though.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1559298050950139906

Finally, another Senate primary poll which somewhat tracks with what we have been speculating. Morse is gaining but Bolduc still leads by a substantial margin. If this poll is right it also shows that Bolduc is basically coasting at this point, so its a race for Morse to try and get enough undecideds on his side before the primary.

We can question if the two polls we have are worth much, but I do think they reflect a trend even if the numbers are wrong, and that trend is much better for Morse than Bolduc. Still, as is usually the case this far out, lots of undecideds so how they break will be key. I still tend to think that, given the outcomes of recent primaries in other states, those undecideds will probably break for Bolduc, but there is chance for Morse here to possibly win.

[Nyvin]

A problem for Morse and undecideds is that there is absolutely nothing interesting or appealing about him whatsoever.   He's just a bland, generic Establishment Republican without any redeeming qualities at all.  Voters this cycle haven't been very found of candidates of his profile so far.  He's not all that charismatic when listening to him talk either.

He can gain more support with higher name recognition but he's going to hit a ceiling at some point or another.  The question is if the ceiling is higher than Bolduc's floor.

The biggest threat to Morse might be Smith coming up and splitting the establishment vote with him.  If Smith gets into the double digits I think Bolduc is almost guaranteed to win.

[Brother Jonathan]

A problem for Morse and undecideds is that there is absolutely nothing interesting or appealing about him whatsoever.   He's just a bland, generic Establishment Republican without any redeeming qualities at all.  Voters this cycle haven't been very found of candidates of his profile so far.  He's not all that charismatic when listening to him talk either.

He can gain more support with higher name recognition but he's going to hit a ceiling at some point or another.  The question is if the ceiling is higher than Bolduc's floor.

The biggest threat to Morse might be Smith coming up and splitting the establishment vote with him.  If Smith gets into the double digits I think Bolduc is almost guaranteed to win.

I tend to agree, Bolduc likely wins over those undecideds at this point and so he's still a clear favorite. I think the threat of Smith has mostly passed though (and so too the threat of movement that might undercut Bolduc, though Fenton did gain a bit from the last poll), though of course all of those voters would likely be for Morse and so Smith running at all does cut into Morse at least a little. Maybe he will surge at the last minute, but for right now Smith seems pretty stagnant, with no movement between the two polls we have had.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1559926813354328067?t=Qe7yG7HXItuY1X2T82...

[free my dawg]

So probably Morse? Smith isn't really catching fire like I expected.

[Senator Incitatus]

So probably Morse? Smith isn't really catching fire like I expected.

Either would be a surprise given Bolduc's apparent lead. Nobody here has any of Trump's apparent three keys to an endorsement: (1) a solid advantage, (2) a personal connection, or (3) a sincere adherence to his policies.

Have to consider the possibility that Lewandowski is just lying.

[MATTROSE94]

A problem for Morse and undecideds is that there is absolutely nothing interesting or appealing about him whatsoever.   He's just a bland, generic Establishment Republican without any redeeming qualities at all.  Voters this cycle haven't been very found of candidates of his profile so far.  He's not all that charismatic when listening to him talk either.

He can gain more support with higher name recognition but he's going to hit a ceiling at some point or another.  The question is if the ceiling is higher than Bolduc's floor.

The biggest threat to Morse might be Smith coming up and splitting the establishment vote with him.  If Smith gets into the double digits I think Bolduc is almost guaranteed to win.

Would Don Bolduc have a chance at winning if he gets through the primary or no? My gut feeling is that he would lose by a Richard Swett 1996 style margin, but I am not too sure. I think that Chuck Morse would easily win by a Warren Rudman 1980 style margin, as he is heavily backed by Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott and is reminiscent of the old Reagan era Republican Party (even though he is an election denier and strong Donald Trump supporter).

[Brother Jonathan]

So probably Morse? Smith isn't really catching fire like I expected.

Maybe Fenton or even Vikram? Both seem rather Trumpy in their way, but Trump seems to only endorse people he thinks can win since he doesn't like the optics of being on the losing side of a primary battle, which would suggest Morse. But I also think there is a chance Lewandowski is just making it up or at least fudging, since I seem to recall he said Trump was endorsing earlier on as well. Trump could endorse Morse, but that would seem very out of nowhere at least to me. If he does, I assume Lewandowski must have seriously been part of swaying him in that direction and making an argument that Morse was best suited to beating Hassan. Not sure that winning the general has ever really been a motivating factor for Trump endorsements before though, or how much influence Lewandowski actually has.

[free my dawg]

So probably Morse? Smith isn't really catching fire like I expected.

Either would be a surprise given Bolduc's apparent lead. Nobody here has any of Trump's apparent three keys to an endorsement: (1) a solid advantage, (2) a personal connection, or (3) a sincere adherence to his policies.

Have to consider the possibility that Lewandowski is just lying.

Right. I do remember Lewandowski saying the Trump endorsement was Coming Soon a few months ago - although I might be thinking of NH-1.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/NewHampJournal/status/1560662765253013504?t=_SRIURZUHFHB9ixx...

Of course, Sununu will still cuck out and back him, but worth noting.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/Morse4Senate/status/1561820590641668100

This to me is another indication that Morse has actually done a good job of cultivating the institutions and leadership of the conversative base. If this were a pre-Trump race he would probably be running away with it. But instead he is stuck trailing Bolduc, presumably because Bolduc is 'Trumpier' than Morse.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Even though the R party is changing, historically the R base in NH have put forwards some pretty solid canidates on all levels with at least some general appeal.

[Brother Jonathan]

Even though the R party is changing, historically the R base in NH have put forwards some pretty solid canidates on all levels with at least some general appeal.

I generally think their record is actually somewhat spotty, especially at the Congressional level. CD 2 in particular has a primary electorate that has often voted for candidates which are ill-suited to winning the district. The most glaring example was Marilinda Garcia in 2014, who put up a very poor performance given the general trend that year. 'At the senate level though they have been okay, but the only real data point there is 2014, and I do think the rise of Trump really has just shocked the system in a way that makes even that cycle a poor guide to what will happen this time.

[Brother Jonathan]

New UNH poll on the Republican primary

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1701&context=survey_center_polls

Bolduc- 43% (+10 from last UNH poll)
Morse- 22% (+20)
Fenton- 5% (+4)
Vikram- 5% (n/a)
Smith- 3% (-1)

So safe to say that Bolduc probably has this fairly well tied down barring some real shifts to Morse. Bolduc gaining was the one thing Morse really did not want to see in this poll, but it shows that his lead is proving firmer and less stagnant than might have been hoped. Smith has not gone anywhere really, and Fenton has had some modest growth but I doubt he's going to be much of a factor (also has the highest unfavorable numbers, just a point above Bolduc).

One tidbit is that the undecideds are fairly evenly divided on the impact of a Trump endorsement on their vote. 41% say it would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 36% it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate. Also notable that it seems, per this poll, that the attacks on Morse haven't really landed all that well. He has the lowest unfavorable ratings out of all the candidates, (10%) while someone like Vikram, with a much lower profile, already has an equal or slightly higher unfavorable rating (13%).

[Gracile]

Hassan distances herself from Biden comments-

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1564359231586836480

[wbrocks67]

All of the people in the MAGA Republican movement/side literally tried to overturn a free and fair U.S. election. If that's not even "semi-fascism" than really nothing matters anymore.

I get why Hassan said that, but the "gotcha" line of questioning that reporters are trying to make this into some "deplorables" moment is ridiculous and doesn't work. Not just that, but Biden isn't speaking about voters even necessarily, but the people behind this movement (Trump, senators who voted to overturn, etc.)

[SnowLabrador]

I understand that New Hampshire is a very different state from Missouri, but I'm reminded of Claire McCaskill and how she engaged in performative centrism prior to the 2018 election. That didn't work out too well for her, did it?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is still a possibility that SUNUNU can lose either in 22 or 24 after that silly comment he made about Maga Rs, we do need to defeat him anyways because he is itching to go to the Sen and he will run against Shaheen if he isn't stopped, but he made a silly comment

I put all my wave insurance candidate as wins we don't know what to expect this is not a 2010/14/16 EDay where it's just a blue wall map it's something else that's why I made a wave insurance map on 2020 we had polls similar to this not an absolute 303 map

It's silly Approvals too how we gonna come close in AK and OH Sen if Biden is truly at 43 and some of GCB polls have D's at 48 or 50 over Rs. But Rs look at Approvals that's their only path to winning and Trump had the same Approvals

[free my dawg]

Hassan distances herself from Biden comments-

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1564359231586836480

I'm always taking apologies, friends.

[President Johnson]

Hassan distances herself from Biden comments-

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1564359231586836480

Seems like a cowardish move. MAGA Republicans literally attempted to overthrow the constitution for their cult leader. Stop downplaying that. Democrats shouldn't echo such far-right talkingpoints.

[wbrocks67]

Hassan distances herself from Biden comments-

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1564359231586836480

Seems like a cowardish move. MAGA Republicans literally attempted to overthrow the constitution for their cult leader. Stop downplaying that. Democrats shouldn't echo such far-right talkingpoints.

This. I'm even more upset though with the press asking questions about this and acting like it's A) something it's not and B) not an accurate statement given everything we've seen post-Jan 6th with Trump's orbit

[free my dawg]

I'd like to dedicate Hassan's MAGA apologism to everyone who tried to browbeat me into supporting her after taking a legal bribe to vote against raising the minimum wage.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

OK now I'm with Sawx. Down with Hassan /s
No but seriously this is ridiculous