NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R for sure.

Lol, if he or Ducey decided to run against one of our candidates, they will be face heavy scrutiny, you see what happened to Strickland, Bredesen, Thompson, and Bullocks, it wasn't easy defeating any incumbent, Portman, Daines in any race, once you are scrutinized by the media, that you didn't get scrutiny for, when you are Gov.

Hassan and Mark Kelly will be able to substain any challenges from Ducey or Sununu.

John Sununu was sent home by Shaheen, as the incumbent due to fact, John was to the right of the nation not center when he ran Chris Sununu wants to keep the Trump tax cuts in place that exacerbates urban poverty

Daines wanted to keep it in place but that MT which will become a 1 party state after 2024, Rosendale if he runs against Tester will be favored, due to thebeating Cooney and Bullocks took in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup to Tilt R, we have to see how popular Biden is and what type of campaign the dems run. If they tie Mitch to Sunnunu, it could be closer than people think

Sununu wants to keep the Trump tax cuts in place it's not Tilt R, Hassan will win. John Sununu, his brother lost in 2008 due to fact Shaheen tied him to the Bush W tax cuts. There's a difference when you is a Gov and a US Senator when you have to deal with the deficit and debt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu would obviously clear the field, but without him in the race the NHGOP really has a terrible bench.

I agree. If Sununu doesn't run I won't be too worried about this race and that would be great overall for Democrats since that effort could be used instead in defending Arizona or Nevada. If Sununu does indeed run against her though I expect Hassan to get Hassaned.

We haven't seen 1 poll that shows Rs winning AZ, NH or NV, Sununu won't Hassan our Senator, not yet, untill we see a poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu vetoed the minimum wage twice, he is no Moderate and he will be tied to McConnell's failed leadership on minimum wage, Sununu is not a maverick. He ran against Feltas in 2020 and he almost lost to Molly Kelly in 2018, who wasn't an INCUMBENT


What's the big deal about Chris Sununu, we already had John Sununu whom lost to Shaheen for voting failed Bush W tax cuts..Hassan will beat him, he isn't invincible

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu vetoed to he minimum wage twice as Gov, that's why females will vote for Hassan and Sununu is only 2 pts ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassen is gonna lose If she faces Sununu, Sununu vetoed the minimum wage and she voted Against the Minimum wage, I hope it was worth it Hassan, bye

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't MT Treasurer know better that Maggie Hassan is gonna bring in reinforcements in Jeanne Shaheen to campaign for her, Shaheen has not lost a race before and will be recruited to help out Hassan, Biden won NH by seven and in 600 days Hassan with help of Shaheen will win by seven

He should know better about Shaheen and Hassan relationship, it's the same as Fetterman and Bob Casey Jr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu is popular as Gov, he is at 46 percent in the polls against Hassan, that isn't gonna cut it in 600 days

He has to win at 50 percent not 46 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would also add that 2014 Shaheen was in the same position as HASSAN against Scott Brown, and Brown was just as popular as Sununu and look what happened in an Obama Midterms, Brown lost, it's too early to determine a race that will be very close

600 days or less

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just remember the Scott Brown effect, in 2014, popular moderate trying to defeat an INCUMBENT Senator Shaheen and he lost, Hassan isn't losing

Same with Sununu popular moderate trying to defeat an INCUMBENT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu is getting a Honeymoon, Hassan will be Reelected next yr if the the PVI is 2 or better and since D's won the PVi by 3 last time, it's likely to happen again in 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Scott Brown was leading Shaheen, before 2014, lol its not Safe R unless Rs lead on PVI and they haven't won the PVI since 2016

NH is a weird state, it's a VBM Election and D's are very lucky in VBM Elections because they can loosely count provisional ballots

I was an Election judge from 2004-2012 I know about provisional ballots

Rs act like NH is AL where Doug Jones lost by 60 percent to 40 percent, it's not, it's not voter suppression

The reason why Collins won was she won every race she had and Sununu is not Collins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I might donate in Summer of 2022, but Ds need to get their state by state numbers up not Biden approvals to prove to me they absolutely can win

That's why in a Covid Environment, Elections can be unpredictable, you have days, D's are flying high and then you get HASSAN polls, no sir I am not in rush to donate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Change Research poll clearly show that Hassan is gonna win against Sununu, Sununu record is pure Progressive, she is open to DC Statehood, she voted for Asian anti hate crimes, open to HR 1

Try he only vote against her is the minimum wage and Sununu vetoed the Minimum wage as well

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only reason state that Rs have a good chance in is GA Hassan was at 55% in the last Change poll with Evers and Nelson, INCUMBENTs don't lose with 50%. Warnock is below 50% due to runoff

Remember Scott Brown, another popular moderate he lost on Election day due to SHAHEEN winning with 50% of the vote on Election night, she was below it much of 2014

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The last Change poll had Hassan at 55 percent Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so worried about Hassan, SHAHEEN was in a similar position in 2014 and she achieved 50 percent on Election day and she beat Scott Brown
Shaheen won because Maggie Hassan win the Gubernatorial Election

Molly Kelly is considering another run for Gov she can have the same effect like in 2014

And last Change poll had Evers and Nelson leading and HASSAN at 55 percent Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Similar to Nevada, I have to imagine this race isn't particularly appealing to top-tier GOP candidates, as defeating the Democrat would be challenging in a highly nationalized race even for the best possible Republican (presumably Sununu) in a favorable climate, but do remember that winning would also immediately set him up for an even tougher campaign in 2028 in what would in all likelihood be a far more challenging national environment, not to mention after six years of casting tough and probably unpopular votes, in a state that is for all intents and purposes Dem-leaning.

Sununu could probably be governor for as long as he wants, which I'm sure he knows. No doubt this is going to be a tough recruitment for the national party.

I generally agree that winning a federal race in NH is an uphill battle for any Republican (although that really has little to do with Hassan being some strong incumbent — she isn’t), but I think you and others are seriously underestimating how competitive Nevada will be in 2022. I don’t buy for a second that Cortez Masto (or Mark Kelly, for that matter) will be heavily favored even in a very favorable environment for the party.

Besides, I think Sununu is certainly more skilled than Ayotte at reading his electorate and cultivating an independent/moderate/bipartisan brand. You don’t win statewide in NH by a 2-to-1 margin as a Republican if you don’t possess some major electoral/messaging skills. He also has a history of outperforming his pre-election polling even in D-leaning years, so I wouldn’t underestimate him if I was a D strategist. Joe Manchin isn’t the only elected official capable of that game.

SCOTT BROWN WAS LEADING SHAHEEN AND SHAHEEN BEAT HIM IN 2014, HE WAS THE SAME AS Sununu a popular moderate but he will get scrutinized once he enters just like Scott Brown was in 2014, Brown lost as was a popular moderate like Sununu

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

YEA BOY HERE WE GO!!! COOKIE MAN FOR SENATE!!!

Scott Brown lost in 2014 whom was just as popular as Sununu a popular moderate, Sununu isn't assured of anything

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

Lean R flip.

You don't remember what happened to Scott Brown in 2014, he was a popular moderate and leading Shaheen and he Lost in an R plus 5 and we are in a Neutral Environment as of now, but it can be a blue wave, relax, it's 500 days til Election, Hassan in last poll was at 50% Approvals as n a Change poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

Lean R flip.

You don't remember what happened to Scott Brown in 2014, he was a popular moderate and leading Shaheen and he Lost in an R plus 5 and we are in a Neutral Environment as of now, but it can be a blue wave, relax, it's 500 days til Election, Hassan in last poll was at 50% Approvals as n a Change poll

Sununu is not Scott Brown. He has higher name recognition as he's from the Sununu family and unlike Brown he is not a carpetbagger. That is unlike Hassan who was actually a carpetbagger in 2002 when she first ran for the New Hampshire while she was from Massachusetts.

There hasn't been a Single poll and the last poll had Hassan at 55% Approvals, NH isn't AL either, Hassan can win in 500 days and so can Ds, the Rs haven't won the PVI since 2014 and the EC College since 2016 8 yrs is a long time ago and they haven't even taken the lead on Generic ballot, let me know when this is a 2014 Election when they won by 5 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You forgot John Sununu in 2008, lost in a PVI 6=0 Election to Jeanne Shaheen too, it wasn't an 8.0 Election like Rs continue to claim

So what for Sununu name

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do think in a Runoff scenario WARNOCK will lose, he is the only one below 50% Hassan will win, she is at 55% in the last Change poll

51/49 Senators

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For the record GA hasn't been a D State since 1992 and it's a Runoff anyways, it's very doubtful that WARNOCK will get to 50% on Election day

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For the record Mr 2016, John Sununu lost in 2008 to Jeanne Shaheen in a D plus 5 yr against SHAHEEN, Sununus have lost before

The Generic ballot have bounced around between tied and plus 5.0

When was the last time Rs won PVI 2014 in a R wave yr 7 yrs ago, don't tell me about Red waves