NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[MT Treasurer]

I have no doubt that NH would prefer Chris Sununu to Maggie Hassan (who’s thoroughly mediocre as a politician/campaigner and only coasting on the state's D trend/strong D party apparatus IMO), but NH would probably not prefer Senate Majority Leader McConnell to Senate Majority Leader Schumer. Now, NH isn’t blue enough that Sununu can’t overcome his party affiliation, but he should take heed of MT-SEN 2020 as a prime example of what happens to a popular governor when races get relentlessly nationalized and the last three Senate races in his own state as examples of how ‘easy’ NH is for Republicans at the federal level.

While I agree that he starts out as the favorite (Tilt/Lean R), this is not the kind of race where Republicans can afford to fall asleep at the wheel or get overconfident. My guess is that he’s going to follow the Rick Scott playbook of running against a ‘do-nothing Congress’/‘partisan career politician Maggie Hassan’ while avoiding party labels as much as possible:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/gov-chris-sununu-fire-all-of-congress-over-covid-relief-impasse.html

He’s no dummy so he probably knows how to con 7-10% of gullible Biden voters into supporting him for Senate, but he’ll probably need a somewhat favorable environment for Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

Lol do nothing Congress?  Republicans will be the ones controlling the Senate.

Depending on what happens in GA, probably. Still, this didn’t stop Rick Scott from (fairly effectively) using this line of attack against Nelson, and that was with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and a Republican administration.

[MT Treasurer]

This is hardly surprising. If this is still one of the salient issues in late 2022, it’s how he sells his opposition to the bill (e.g. Washington special interests forcing hard-working Granite Staters to bail out blue states, Democrats inserting a partisan agenda into a bill for struggling Granite Staters and politicizing the pain of New Hampshire families, etc.) that will make the difference. Plus, if he praised and/or supported the bill, it would make it a lot easier for Hassan to take credit for it and potentially later attack him for changing his tone after the political winds had changed, so he’d be playing into the Democrats' hands.

I actually do think he knows what he’s doing here.

[MT Treasurer]

This is some Manchin-tier stuff

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-sununu-slams-as-foolish-rick-scotts-call-for-governors-to-reject-covid-funds/35868999

“While the governor had serious concerns that more than half of the spending in the relief package wasn’t targeted to COVID, he considers the call to refuse the stimulus money to be foolish,” said Sununu spokesperson Ben Vihstadt.

“Rejecting these funds would only ensure that California, New York and New Jersey would make out with even more of New Hampshire taxpayer dollars. The governor will always find innovative, financially-sound ways to put federal funds to use.”

Scott and Sununu are generally on good terms, so I wouldn’t be surprised if (at the very least) part of this was staged.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R.

I know, right? Too bad IA is just as Safe... but for you guys.

[MT Treasurer]

Republican messaging against Maggie Hassan: Be more like Joe Manchin!

The NRSC cited a CQ Roll Call vote comparison report from Monday that found, 98 times out of 100, Hassan voted with Schumer.

Hassan and her communications staff declined to respond when asked about her voting record. However, some political observers say the charge of partisanship means less at a time when both parties are polarized and true bipartisan lawmaking is rare.

“I’ve got two words for that,” says GOP strategist Patrick Griffin. “‘Joe Manchin.’ There is no reason Hassan couldn’t be doing what Manchin is doing right now — confronting the far-left in her party and using her leverage to push back on issues like gun control or tax hikes or protecting New Hampshire’s elections.”

https://nhjournal.com/hassans-claims-of-bipartisanship-undermined-by-98-percent-partisan-voting-record/

These are the people in the war room of the most powerful political party in the world.

Also, paging TiltsAreUnderrated:

Hassan, on the other hand, insists she’s a Democrat who works across the aisle. So much so that, in the past month, her office sent out twenty-four press releases featuring the word “bipartisanship” — four of them in just one three-day period alone:

Senator Hassan, Colleagues Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Support and Expand Regional Greenhouse Gas Reduction Programs

Senators Hassan, Tillis Lead Colleagues in Introducing Bipartisan Resolution Honoring Veterans Service Organizations for Their Support to Veterans Amid COVID-19 Pandemic

Senators Hassan, Ernst Lead Bipartisan, Bicameral Effort to Increase Access to Child Care for Working Families

Senator Hassan Joins in Introducing Bipartisan Bill to Strengthen Treatment and Recovery Services for Incarcerated Individuals [emphasis added].

[MT Treasurer]

The Change Research poll clearly show that Hassan is gonna win against Sununu, Sununu record is pure Progressive, she is open to DC Statehood, she voted for Asian anti hate crimes, open to HR 1

Try he only vote against her is the minimum wage and Sununu vetoed the Minimum wage as well

oh

Hassan should call him a socialist.

[male narrator:]

Seditious Socialist Sununu, "Trump guy through and through," taking his orders from Qanon Qim, is at it again, lying about...

[MT Treasurer]

I didn’t realize Hassan had a high approval as well. No shocker about Sununu’s. If they are both popular, it’s anyone’s guess who wins, but edge Sununu.

Morning Consult always inflates elected official's "approval ratings," especially (but not exclusively) when it’s Democrats. Her approval ratings are a lot less rosy in other polls.

Anyway, not sure this even warranted its own article. While Sununu would obviously be a top recruit for the GOP, I also don’t buy that he’s going to immediately shift this race three categories to the right, i.e., that Hassan would have been pretty much safe without him or, conversely, that this would be way better a pick-up opportunity than AZ/NV solely because of Sununu's candidate quality. This state has been an uphill battle for any Republican at the federal level for quite some time now, and while I do expect a (moderate) rightward shift in NH under Biden, the party still has a pretty deep hole to climb out of here, with not much of a reliable, R-trending base area to max out like in ME. Don’t lose sight of the fundamentals.

“The political cemetery is filled with folks who underestimated Maggie Hassan,” said New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley.

More like “The political cemetery is filled with folks who underestimated New Hampshire's Democratic lean.”

[MT Treasurer]

Do you think Sununu could have beat Shaheen in 2020? The ticket-splitting was ginormous. I think him waiting until 2022 was the right call.

Definitely not, and waiting until 2022 (assuming he decides to run) was probably the best political calculation her ever made. No Republican was going to win a Senate race in NH in 2020, whether against Shaheen or not. You need some combination of a very favorable environment, pitch-perfect messaging/campaigning, and an underwhelming D opponent to win a federal race in NH as a Republican at this point. Take away even one of those factors and it’s an uphill battle, take away two and you don’t have a prayer.

[MT Treasurer]

Similar to Nevada, I have to imagine this race isn't particularly appealing to top-tier GOP candidates, as defeating the Democrat would be challenging in a highly nationalized race even for the best possible Republican (presumably Sununu) in a favorable climate, but do remember that winning would also immediately set him up for an even tougher campaign in 2028 in what would in all likelihood be a far more challenging national environment, not to mention after six years of casting tough and probably unpopular votes, in a state that is for all intents and purposes Dem-leaning.

Sununu could probably be governor for as long as he wants, which I'm sure he knows. No doubt this is going to be a tough recruitment for the national party.

I generally agree that winning a federal race in NH is an uphill battle for any Republican (although that really has little to do with Hassan being some strong incumbent — she isn’t), but I think you and others are seriously underestimating how competitive Nevada will be in 2022. I don’t buy for a second that Cortez Masto (or Mark Kelly, for that matter) will be heavily favored even in a very favorable environment for the party.

Besides, I think Sununu is certainly more skilled than Ayotte at reading his electorate and cultivating an independent/moderate/bipartisan brand. You don’t win statewide in NH by a 2-to-1 margin as a Republican if you don’t possess some major electoral/messaging skills. He also has a history of outperforming his pre-election polling even in D-leaning years, so I wouldn’t underestimate him if I was a D strategist. Joe Manchin isn’t the only elected official capable of that game.

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

[MT Treasurer]

The Supreme Court isn’t actually going to overturn Roe (at best they will uphold some state-specific restrictions). There’s also no way a Republican who won by a 2-to-1 margin in a state like NH didn’t enjoy significant crossover support from pro-choice voters and social/cultural liberals — most of that will erode in a federal race against any Democrat, but some of it is all that’s needed here.

I think 'Compassionate Chris' is just a lot better at this game than Kelly Ayotte or Maggie Hassan, and I don’t really buy that his brand will easily be dismantled by going the Gideon route of outspending him 4-to-1 and spending hundreds of millions on attack ads tying him to McConnell/Trump/Young Kim or whatever.

[MT Treasurer]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

[MT Treasurer]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

Not too hot imo, I'd say it's Lean R, but if Sununu runs and the national environment is even somewhat R leaning, let me just say I think Democrats would have a better shot at PA and possibly NC and FL. If the national environment is neutral, I'd still say Lean R, and even in that case, inelastic states like FL and NC can do weird things. Also yeah they obviously have a very good chance of winning a Governor's race when the only possible credible Republican would be Kelly Ayotte.

There's not a chance in hell that Democrats flip Florida before they hold New Hampshire.

There’s also not a chance in hell that Democrats flip North Carolina before they hold New Hampshire (even PA is a real stretch). This is meme posting on par with "IA replaces NC as tipping-point race in the Senate" from 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

Civiqs Biden Approval by State:

National: 41/51 (-10)

AZ: 39/54 (-15)
GA: 37/55 (-18)
PA: 40/52 (-12)
NV: 42/50 (-8)
NH: 45/48 (-3)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

Obviously these are inflated (in favor of Republicans) and ought to be treated with caution (like every other poll), but this should give the people who think that NH is by far the easiest flip for the GOP or the difference between a R-controlled and a D-controlled Senate at least some pause. Hassan might be a "weak incumbent" and Sununu a "strong candidate," but that only gets you so far in a Biden +7 state which leans strongly to the left in federal races. Even with Sununu running, I’d rather bet on AZ than NH as the easiest pick-up opportunity for the GOP, and GA/NV flipping before NH is not at all out of the question either. Irrespective of this 50-state poll, I’ve never really understood why the conventional wisdom is so bullish on Republicans in NH and bearish on their chances in NV/AZ/PA.

I’m also in complete agreement with OC (!) - it’s fairly likely that that Sununu +8 poll was indeed an outlier, and he’s right that Ayotte was consistently polling better than Johnson/Toomey in the months leading up to the 2016 election. This was also one of the few states where polling did not underestimate R strength at the federal level in 2020 (even while doing so virtually everywhere else, including in states where it traditionally underestimated Democrats, e.g. NV/AZ/TX).

NH is just an extremely difficult state for the GOP, and blue state partisanship will make this race very tough even with everything else going in the party's favor.

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu making his decision in the next few weeks.

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Sununu-to-make-decision-on-Senate-run-in-next-two-weeks-On-the-trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-43158917

[MT Treasurer]

he is only up 3, he overcame NH ANGRY WOMEN because he had a cushion on Molly Kelly in 2018/ like 20 when it closed to 7 Sununu was up 9 now he is only up 3/ not enough to beat Hassan

Hassn was trailing  Ayotte and won

🙏 Agree 100%, king. He needs to hit 50% in several polls and be ahead by >5 points to withstand a predictable last-minute surge in female support for Hassan. Shaheen always projects dominance and confidence in confronting and eventually vanquishing her male opposition (I mean, just look at her), whereas Hassan and Kelly are/were more far more reserved. If Hassan (who is objectively very low-energy) can change that and inject more direct and aggressive gender-based appeals into the campaign rather than talking about obscure bipartisan bills no one cares about, I think she has an extremely good chance even in a R-leaning year.

"When Chris Sununu had the chance to reject Sherman Packard's attacks on NH women, he stood with him, not with us — on Tuesday, stand with Maggie, not with them"

"[Shaheen addressing camera:] What this race ultimately comes down to is what people we want to represent us — in the New Hampshire I love and am proud to call my home, the divisive, reactionary, anti-choice values of Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump, Chuck Morse, Frank Edelblut, Sherman Packard, and Chris Sununu have no place. The stakes have never been higher, and only your vote stands between them imposing their values on us and us preserving our Granite State heritage. In November, let’s put New Hampshire first, not them."

The male/female arithmetic honestly isn’t that different from the white/non-white calculations in the Deep South states. There’s no doubt that NH women can outvote NH men, it’s just going to take the right messaging — the more threatened they feel, the more likely they are to flood the voting booths.

[MT Treasurer]

Remember when the majority of Atlas posters thought that this was "by far" the easiest GOP pick-up opportunity in the Senate and that Sununu would mop the floor with weak Hassan even if Kelly/CCM/Warnock all held on?

That said, I really didn’t see this one coming.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s not that difficult, honestly. Any Republican candidate needs to keep losses among NH women to low double digits while winning over nearly all the persuadable male voters in order to just barely get over the top statewide — that, combined with record R base turnout, only gets you a narrow win in the NH of today. The type of male Republican most likely to accomplish this (especially against a D female incumbent) is reserved, "knows his place," doesn’t make any conspicuously gender-based appeals/categorically refuses to engage in identity politics tailored to a predominantly male audience, keeps his head down, and basically brands himself as a non-ideological, compassionate citizen who only reaches his most important decisions after listening to the counsel of his wive (and daughter). By contrast, people like Scott Brown, Donald Trump, Don Bolduc, Corky Messner, Paul Hodes, and other assertive, confrontational, male 'machismo' candidates who literally or metaphorically step into the female comfort zone/safe space and think they can set the tone inevitably end up getting rejected in a humiliating fashion by said D female candidates and the kind of female voter base that endorses/celebrates/actively contributes to this resounding rejection. We’ve seen this movie before and know how this story ends, and there’s not much reason to believe it will be any different with Bolduc (or Lewandowski, LOL). If the Republican goal in NH is "supercharged gender polarization", i.e., aiming for R margins among NH men that exceed the D margins among NH women, then good luck — there’s a good 43%-44% of NH men, many of them oppressed in a very one-sided relationship, many of them socially liberal, many of them single, who will gladly join the female-driven humiliation of the type of man they are not/cannot be (think of them as the Chris Pappases of NH). This really just boils down to simple psychology, and it has been observable in just about every NH race since 2006 — the Shaheen campaign knows how to exploit these anxieties better than anyone else, and Ayotte was one of the very few Republicans to benefit from them in 2010. Also, every time we think Republicans have finally 'bottomed out' among NH women, they keep sinking to new lows with this demographic. There was a poll last year which showed Shaheen leading Messner 70-26 among NH women even as Messner was (very narrowly) leading her among NH men, and that’s probably the future we’re headed for (not in 2022, but sooner than we’d like). The bottom line is that betting on NH men to somehow outvote NH women in a federal race involving candidates like Hassan or Bolduc is... bold.

My guess as to the realistic range of outcomes in this race, with the GOP best-case scenario on the left and the DEM best-case scenario on the right:

NH women (52-53%): 59-41 Hassan / 65-35 Hassan
NH men (47-48%): 56-44 Bolduc / 52-48 Bolduc

Olawakandi is right: Sununu was able to win in 2018 because he had a fairly large cushion in his race against Molly Kelly, which allowed him to withstand the inevitable losses among NH women in the final weeks/months of the campaign and the predictable consolidation of "undecided" NH women around Molly Kelly. I don’t think we’ll ever even be entertaining any "cushions" in the case of Bolduc, Messner, Lewandowski, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans would be better off with someone untainted by Washington or lobbying experience, and John Sununu is basically the exact antithesis of that. Surely there must be a halfway sane state legislator or businessman waiting in the wings, especially given the size of the NH Legislature?

[MT Treasurer]

^And yet, even in this poll Republicans only lead the GCB by a mere plurality of five points (47-42). No gender crosstabs released (which makes any NH poll less interesting/reliable) but I suspect there’s a sizable gender gap, with more female than male voters 'undecided.' NH women are easily one of the most inflexible D groups in the nation, and in a federal race (esp. one with a female D and a male R opponent), they will be a bulwark for Democrats even in a GOP wave year. If this were a true swing state, this race would be Lean R given Hassan's/Biden's approval/favorability numbers, but again, NH women aren’t particularly persuadable, and much of the male vote is similar to the Hispanic vote in FL in that Democrats have an unusually high floor compared to other states with a similar demographic make-up (that might change next year, but I’m not going to bet on NH men outvoting NH women).

[MT Treasurer]

New NH poll which shows Democratic prospects in the state improving substantially is quite something:

Biden approval: 49/50 (-1) (was -9 before)

Among NH women: +41 (70% Approve, 29% Disapprove)
Among NH men: -42 (29% Approve, 71% Disapprove)

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/682/

Hassan favorability: +3 (43% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable) (was -10 in November)

Among NH women: +43 (64/21)
Among NH men: -38 (21/59)

Yes, you saw that right: Those are 83- and 81-point gender gaps, respectively. MS-type polarization, guys.

Favorability of GOP candidates:

Don Bolduc: -15 (18/33)
Corky Messner: -33 (8/41)
Chuck Morse: -17 (8/25)
Frank Edelblut: -25 (7/32)
Frank Guinta: -31 (5/36)
Bill Binnie: -10 (5/15)
Kevin Smith: -9 (3/12)

Sununu approval is down to +5 (52/47). It was +19 in November.

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/683/

I am shocked.

[MT Treasurer]

Shaheen won by 3 points in 2014 when Obama's job approval in the state was 43/56 (-13). Given that Biden's recent decline in NH (39/60) is driven by a quarter of Democrats disapproving of him (those people will eventually come home and they certainly won’t vote against Hassan), I expect his numbers to be very close to Obama 2014 when all is said and done. I’m not sure if that’s enough for the GOP to flip the seat given that the state is even more Democratic today than in 2014 (on the other hand, Hassan certainly doesn’t have the brand that helped out Shaheen and is just a laughably inept incumbent in general).

Even if Hassan is reelected, I think the race will be closer than NH-SEN 2014 (and quite possibly the closest Senate race in the country).

[MT Treasurer]

Get ready for four more years of "If Sununu runs for Senate in 2026, Shaheen will lose before Peters" takes even if Hassan survives a R wave while Cortez Masto, Kelly, and Warnock all lose.

[MT Treasurer]

If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

Barnes is not winning on a night when Hassan is losing, and more likely than not Republicans will end up with 54 seats in the Senate if they manage to win in NH.

This is an incredibly overhyped race (and would have been even with Sununu, who chose not to run for a reason) that will only flip on an extremely bad night for Democrats (call it a 'wave' if you want).