NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/pjcnh/status/1324739059118493707

[GALeftist]

Trendz from 2016 to 2020 indicate to me that if Sununu falls asleep at the wheel Hassan definitely still has a shot, but I think this could be a big vulnerability for Democrats.

[Astatine]

Will be the most likely seat to flip from D to R.

[Lognog]

Trendz from 2016 to 2020 indicate to me that if Sununu falls asleep at the wheel Hassan definitely still has a shot, but I think this could be a big vulnerability for Democrats.

that is if you're not looking at the state leg trends

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R for sure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R for sure.

Lol, if he or Ducey decided to run against one of our candidates, they will be face heavy scrutiny, you see what happened to Strickland, Bredesen, Thompson, and Bullocks, it wasn't easy defeating any incumbent, Portman, Daines in any race, once you are scrutinized by the media, that you didn't get scrutiny for, when you are Gov.

Hassan and Mark Kelly will be able to substain any challenges from Ducey or Sununu.

John Sununu was sent home by Shaheen, as the incumbent due to fact, John was to the right of the nation not center when he ran Chris Sununu wants to keep the Trump tax cuts in place that exacerbates urban poverty

Daines wanted to keep it in place but that MT which will become a 1 party state after 2024, Rosendale if he runs against Tester will be favored, due to thebeating Cooney and Bullocks took in 2020

[MT Treasurer]

I have no doubt that NH would prefer Chris Sununu to Maggie Hassan (who’s thoroughly mediocre as a politician/campaigner and only coasting on the state's D trend/strong D party apparatus IMO), but NH would probably not prefer Senate Majority Leader McConnell to Senate Majority Leader Schumer. Now, NH isn’t blue enough that Sununu can’t overcome his party affiliation, but he should take heed of MT-SEN 2020 as a prime example of what happens to a popular governor when races get relentlessly nationalized and the last three Senate races in his own state as examples of how ‘easy’ NH is for Republicans at the federal level.

While I agree that he starts out as the favorite (Tilt/Lean R), this is not the kind of race where Republicans can afford to fall asleep at the wheel or get overconfident. My guess is that he’s going to follow the Rick Scott playbook of running against a ‘do-nothing Congress’/‘partisan career politician Maggie Hassan’ while avoiding party labels as much as possible:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/gov-chris-sununu-fire-all-of-congress-over-covid-relief-impasse.html

He’s no dummy so he probably knows how to con 7-10% of gullible Biden voters into supporting him for Senate, but he’ll probably need a somewhat favorable environment for Republicans.

[Bootes Void]

Tossup to Tilt R, we have to see how popular Biden is and what type of campaign the dems run. If they tie Mitch to Sunnunu, it could be closer than people think

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup to Tilt R, we have to see how popular Biden is and what type of campaign the dems run. If they tie Mitch to Sunnunu, it could be closer than people think

Sununu wants to keep the Trump tax cuts in place it's not Tilt R, Hassan will win. John Sununu, his brother lost in 2008 due to fact Shaheen tied him to the Bush W tax cuts. There's a difference when you is a Gov and a US Senator when you have to deal with the deficit and debt

[Mr.Phips]

I have no doubt that NH would prefer Chris Sununu to Maggie Hassan (who’s thoroughly mediocre as a politician/campaigner and only coasting on the state's D trend/strong D party apparatus IMO), but NH would probably not prefer Senate Majority Leader McConnell to Senate Majority Leader Schumer. Now, NH isn’t blue enough that Sununu can’t overcome his party affiliation, but he should take heed of MT-SEN 2020 as a prime example of what happens to a popular governor when races get relentlessly nationalized and the last three Senate races in his own state as examples of how ‘easy’ NH is for Republicans at the federal level.

While I agree that he starts out as the favorite (Tilt/Lean R), this is not the kind of race where Republicans can afford to fall asleep at the wheel or get overconfident. My guess is that he’s going to follow the Rick Scott playbook of running against a ‘do-nothing Congress’/‘partisan career politician Maggie Hassan’ while avoiding party labels as much as possible:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/gov-chris-sununu-fire-all-of-congress-over-covid-relief-impasse.html

He’s no dummy so he probably knows how to con 7-10% of gullible Biden voters into supporting him for Senate, but he’ll probably need a somewhat favorable environment for Republicans.

Lol do nothing Congress?  Republicans will be the ones controlling the Senate.

[MT Treasurer]

Lol do nothing Congress?  Republicans will be the ones controlling the Senate.

Depending on what happens in GA, probably. Still, this didn’t stop Rick Scott from (fairly effectively) using this line of attack against Nelson, and that was with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and a Republican administration.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325852725813276672

[KaiserDave]

Sununu would obviously clear the field, but without him in the race the NHGOP really has a terrible bench.

[GALeftist]

Endorsing anyone not named Sununu. Sununu is a RINO lib who would probably vote with Schumer. You know what to do NHGOP.

[tosk]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325852725813276672

Big fan of the general, but Sununu would (probably) cruise to a win in the primary. Hassan is being underestimated, but as long as the governor sticks to doing his job well, and stays sharp we will likely flip the seat. Easily the last person democrats should want to run.

[VAR]

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Maggie-Hassan-announces-she-is-running-again-On-the-Trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-37623285

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325852725813276672

Big fan of the general, but Sununu would (probably) cruise to a win in the primary. Hassan is being underestimated, but as long as the governor sticks to doing his job well, and stays sharp we will likely flip the seat. Easily the last person democrats should want to run.

Seems like a Bill Weld/Steve Bullock situation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sununu would obviously clear the field, but without him in the race the NHGOP really has a terrible bench.

I agree. If Sununu doesn't run I won't be too worried about this race and that would be great overall for Democrats since that effort could be used instead in defending Arizona or Nevada. If Sununu does indeed run against her though I expect Hassan to get Hassaned.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325852725813276672

Big fan of the general, but Sununu would (probably) cruise to a win in the primary. Hassan is being underestimated, but as long as the governor sticks to doing his job well, and stays sharp we will likely flip the seat. Easily the last person democrats should want to run.

Seems like a Bill Weld/Steve Bullock situation.

New Hampshire is leagues more competitive than either Massachusetts or Montana, unfortunately.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu would obviously clear the field, but without him in the race the NHGOP really has a terrible bench.

I agree. If Sununu doesn't run I won't be too worried about this race and that would be great overall for Democrats since that effort could be used instead in defending Arizona or Nevada. If Sununu does indeed run against her though I expect Hassan to get Hassaned.

We haven't seen 1 poll that shows Rs winning AZ, NH or NV, Sununu won't Hassan our Senator, not yet, untill we see a poll

[Mr.Phips]

If Sununu runs, Hassan and Dems need to tie him to Mitch McConnell relentlessly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Feeling a bit better about this race than I was pre-2020; NH was a bright spot for Democrats this cycles, at least on the federal level. Despite this though, I do think ME-Sen has shown us how in some of these smaller states, particularly those in the North East, "canidate quality" can still affect results. Jeanne Shaheen, for instance, had a pretty solid overperformance of Biden, and I think that spells out a bit of trouble for Dems in NH-Sen 2022, the same way King's performance showed that split ticket voting was still alive and well in Maine.

[free my dawg]

Feeling a bit better about this race than I was pre-2020; NH was a bright spot for Democrats this cycles, at least on the federal level. Despite this though, I do think ME-Sen has shown us how in some of these smaller states, particularly those in the North East, "canidate quality" can still affect results. Jeanne Shaheen, for instance, had a pretty solid overperformance of Biden, and I think that spells out a bit of trouble for Dems in NH-Sen 2022, the same way King's performance showed that split ticket voting was still alive and well in Maine.

I'd say Shaheen's overperformance was because of Messner's various problems. A more conventional candidate with roots here would have ran more evenly.

I'm definitely a lot more bullish on Sununu's chances than everyone else. Unlike Scott, Sununu's actual politics/style are a fit for the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Feeling a bit better about this race than I was pre-2020; NH was a bright spot for Democrats this cycles, at least on the federal level. Despite this though, I do think ME-Sen has shown us how in some of these smaller states, particularly those in the North East, "canidate quality" can still affect results. Jeanne Shaheen, for instance, had a pretty solid overperformance of Biden, and I think that spells out a bit of trouble for Dems in NH-Sen 2022, the same way King's performance showed that split ticket voting was still alive and well in Maine.

I'd say Shaheen's overperformance was because of Messner's various problems. A more conventional candidate with roots here would have ran more evenly.

I'm definitely a lot more bullish on Sununu's chances than everyone else. Unlike Scott, Sununu's actual politics/style are a fit for the state.

I agree, and NH has more of a willingness to split ballot than FL, but I'm not counting Shaheen out, especially if this race becomes too heavily nationalized and if McConnel overplays his hand.

[Mr.Phips]

Hot take: If Ossoff and Warnock win the GA runoffs, Hassan will probably lose to any competent candidate (not just Sununu) because two years of ‘[Hassan/Cortez Masto/Kelly] cast the deciding vote for [xxx]’ attacks will be pretty devastating and the national backlash against a D trifecta won’t be pretty.

I don’t agree with that unless Sununu is running against her.  The state is to the left of the national average.