Are you taking the over/under on the RCP generic ballot.
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  Are you taking the over/under on the RCP generic ballot.		 « previous next »
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Question: Are you taking the over/under on the RCP generic ballot?

Assuming the final RCP generic ballot is around R+3.0
#1
Under
#2
Over
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Author Topic: Are you taking the over/under on the RCP generic ballot.  (Read 888 times)
SaneDemocrat
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« on: November 03, 2022, 05:25:39 PM »
Do Republicans win the popular vote by more than 3 or less?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2022, 05:36:44 PM »
Guessing between 4 and 5. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2022, 05:39:27 PM »
Lol it's a 303 map all our Senate incumbent and Fetterman and Barnes are tied or leading in the poll
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2022, 06:04:16 PM »
Is this including uncontested races
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2022, 06:31:27 PM »
I'm guessing around R+2.5, so under. But just barely.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2022, 04:43:37 PM »
My math says R+1.9. My gut says R+6
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THKL
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2022, 05:10:58 PM »
Over, I am expecting R+5 at this point.
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Figueira
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2022, 06:32:06 PM »
Nate Silver has pointed out (and I haven't heard anyone contradict him on this, but I haven't done the math myself) that the actual popular vote is very likely to be a few points to the right of the generic ballot, purely because of uncontested seats. So the popular vote will probably be a little more R, but the actual "national environment" will be around where RCP has it or a little closer.

It's possible we could get a popular vote in line with something like 2014, but the actual results will be much more underwhelming.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2022, 06:42:55 PM »
Excluding uncontested races, I'll say between tied and R+1.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2022, 06:44:57 PM »
Over the current ballot but under whatever they publish on Tuesday; expecting significant movement over the weekend.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2022, 08:21:46 AM »
Quote from: Incitatus for Senate on November 04, 2022, 06:44:57 PM
Over the current ballot but under whatever they publish on Tuesday; expecting significant movement over the weekend.
I can see this
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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2022, 08:39:09 AM »
Ask me after Selzer drops this evening
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2022, 10:20:52 AM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on November 05, 2022, 08:21:46 AM
Quote from: Incitatus for Senate on November 04, 2022, 06:44:57 PM
Over the current ballot but under whatever they publish on Tuesday; expecting significant movement over the weekend.
I can see this

So R+2? A blunted wave. 230 seats. 51- 52 senators.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2022, 01:39:08 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 05, 2022, 08:39:09 AM
Ask me after Selzer drops this evening

I’d take what they at face value. Anything under R+1, we’re getting a split congress. R+2,3 - what I’m expecting. Narrow sweep. R+4-5, Dobbs had no effect. >R+6- historical landslide, Dobbs is secretly popular.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2022, 02:30:49 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 03, 2022, 06:31:27 PM
I'm guessing around R+2.5, so under. But just barely.

Same.
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