NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R for sure.

[SnowLabrador]

Sununu comes out against the relief bill:

https://twitter.com/GovChrisSununu/status/1365712257762615299

Personally, I would have just kept my mouth shut and not taken the gamble if I were him. Unlike incumbent senators, he doesn't need to have a position, and if it turns out that the bill works well this could backfire. He is governor, though, so I guess he must know what he's doing.

(P.S. the "bipartisan" there means that Laura Kelly signed on. Not even JBE lol)

Yeah, not a wise move for him. Hopefully this is a sign that he might not be running after all.

[SnowLabrador]

Would Hassan be considered DOA at this point after voting against the $15 dollar minimum wage?

It doesn't help her chances.

[SnowLabrador]

This is some Manchin-tier stuff

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-sununu-slams-as-foolish-rick-scotts-call-for-governors-to-reject-covid-funds/35868999

“While the governor had serious concerns that more than half of the spending in the relief package wasn’t targeted to COVID, he considers the call to refuse the stimulus money to be foolish,” said Sununu spokesperson Ben Vihstadt.

“Rejecting these funds would only ensure that California, New York and New Jersey would make out with even more of New Hampshire taxpayer dollars. The governor will always find innovative, financially-sound ways to put federal funds to use.”

Scott and Sununu are generally on good terms, so I wouldn’t be surprised if (at the very least) part of this was staged.

Oh, this was definitely staged. Sununu is just as right-wing as the rest of them.

[SnowLabrador]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

Lean R flip.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/NewHampJournal/status/1435631869962358784

Okay, that sounds pretty official. He's running. Lean R.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

Not too hot imo, I'd say it's Lean R, but if Sununu runs and the national environment is even somewhat R leaning, let me just say I think Democrats would have a better shot at PA and possibly NC and FL. If the national environment is neutral, I'd still say Lean R, and even in that case, inelastic states like FL and NC can do weird things. Also yeah they obviously have a very good chance of winning a Governor's race when the only possible credible Republican would be Kelly Ayotte.

There's not a chance in hell that Democrats flip Florida before they hold New Hampshire.

[SnowLabrador]

It doesn't matter electorally. Lean R if Sununu runs.

[SnowLabrador]

He's going to run for Senate, and he's going to win.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't see why he'd be making such a big deal of it if he isn't running for Senate. He's in. Lean R.

[SnowLabrador]

HE'S NOT RUNNING FOR SENATE.

[SnowLabrador]

He's not running for Senate. That's pretty shocking.

[SnowLabrador]

Messner would be the worst possible choice.

[SnowLabrador]

It seems like there's a good chance Hassan loses even without Sununu running, which goes to show just how dismal things look for Democrats right now.

[SnowLabrador]

Biden approval: 49/50 (-1) (was -9 before)

Among NH women: +41 (70% Approve, 29% Disapprove)
Among NH men: -42 (29% Approve, 71% Disapprove)

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/682/

Hassan favorability: +3 (43% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable) (was -10 in November)

Among NH women: +43 (64/21)
Among NH men: -38 (21/59)

Yes, you saw that right: Those are 83- and 81-point gender gaps, respectively. MS-type polarization, guys.

Wtf

I guess my gender polarization prediction is coming true?

It's a junk poll.

[SnowLabrador]

Hassan reminds me a lot of Claire McCaskill. She's pivoting to the right for no reason. She's going to lose.

[SnowLabrador]

I understand that New Hampshire is a very different state from Missouri, but I'm reminded of Claire McCaskill and how she engaged in performative centrism prior to the 2018 election. That didn't work out too well for her, did it?

[SnowLabrador]

I hate this strategy.

[SnowLabrador]

Watch Hassan only win by 1-2 points even after Bolduc gets triaged.

[SnowLabrador]

So the Bolduc +3 poll was fake?

[SnowLabrador]

This is anecdotal, but I’m seeing a lot more Bolduc ads than Hassan ads watching The Amazing Race tonight, and I’m in Massachusetts.