NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Torie]

I started watching the debate, and I think I understand why the race is now a dead heat. Bolduc is actually a very effective debater and was very well prepared.

If I had to pick a Senate race that has the most potential to be the biggest upset of the year, it is this one. Bolduc has been excellent in pivoting to the center post primary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ls0Hgqun4

[ProgressiveModerate]

Decent ads. Straightforward, quick and punches directly at Hassan.

https://twitter.com/GenDonBolduc/status/1585953712056700928?cxt=HHwWgMDQ1fKfuIIs...

Ah yes, cause NH has such a crisis at the Canadian border and deep blue cities like Concord and Portsmouth are seeing skyrocketing crime.

Inflation is a good message for obv but NH is one of the states that’s more detached from the immigration and crime crises

[cg41386]

I started watching the debate, and I think I understand why the race is now a dead heat. Bolduc is actually a very effective debater and was very well prepared.

If I had to pick a Senate race that has the most potential to be the biggest upset of the year, it is this one. Bolduc has been excellent in pivoting to the center post primary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ls0Hgqun4

I'm guessing that like PA, most people didn't really watch the NH debate either. As for Bolduc pivoting towards the center... hasn't he been espousing far right rhetoric lately?

[Torie]

I started watching the debate, and I think I understand why the race is now a dead heat. Bolduc is actually a very effective debater and was very well prepared.

If I had to pick a Senate race that has the most potential to be the biggest upset of the year, it is this one. Bolduc has been excellent in pivoting to the center post primary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ls0Hgqun4

I'm guessing that like PA, most people didn't really watch the NH debate either. As for Bolduc pivoting towards the center... hasn't he been espousing far right rhetoric lately?

Rather than ask you the definition of "far right," what espousing in particular did you have in mind? If you listen to the debate, from what I could tell, it was pivot city.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1587848083982917634?t=RurRjwuf8n34OfH...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1587848083982917634?t=RurRjwuf8n34OfH...

If they're anything like the Citizens for Sanity ads I've seen in Georgia, I think these can have a boomerang effect.  Insane stuff.

[Aurelius]

Starting to get close-race vibes out of NH. Moving this one from Lean D to Tilt D. Don't ask me why, just a gut feeling I have.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1587848083982917634?t=RurRjwuf8n34OfH...

If they're anything like the Citizens for Sanity ads I've seen in Georgia, I think these can have a boomerang effect.  Insane stuff.

Can confirm, have seen a few here and they are.

[xavier110]

I lived in NH during the 2014 Brown/Shaheen race, and if Brown couldn’t beat her then, I just have a hard time envisioning Hassan losing to Bolduc, of all people, in a post-Roe angry NH woman world.

[SnowLabrador]

So the Bolduc +3 poll was fake?

[GeorgiaModerate]

So the Bolduc +3 poll was fake?

The purported UMass-Lowell one?  Yes.

[SnowLabrador]

This is anecdotal, but I’m seeing a lot more Bolduc ads than Hassan ads watching The Amazing Race tonight, and I’m in Massachusetts.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Poll comes out putting Hassan DOWN a point… reminds me a lot of the Markey/Kennedy race. It just felt on the ground that the prevailing wisdom wasn’t adding up….

Had to take a ride to New Hampshire - in an area I hardly ever am around - very Democratic
area and I saw nothing but Buldoc signs. Literally 35-40 signs in a 6-7 mile stretch

Let me be sure I'm getting this right.

You came to a conclusion and then looked for evidence to substantiate that conclusion?

MM is a bit of a joke.

Also, for everyone, yard signs mean nothing.  There are way more Jamie Smith signs than Kristi Noem signs in SD, but she'll still win by 15+ points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So the Bolduc +3 poll was fake?

Have you noticed from the Fetterman polls that were not losing the Senate Hassan is gonna win, CCM is the most endangered incumbent

[Woody]

"We're not taking our momentum for granted"

https://twitter.com/GenDonBolduc/status/1588145122776170498?cxt=HHwWhIC-7eTknIos...

[cg41386]

I started watching the debate, and I think I understand why the race is now a dead heat. Bolduc is actually a very effective debater and was very well prepared.

If I had to pick a Senate race that has the most potential to be the biggest upset of the year, it is this one. Bolduc has been excellent in pivoting to the center post primary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ls0Hgqun4

I'm guessing that like PA, most people didn't really watch the NH debate either. As for Bolduc pivoting towards the center... hasn't he been espousing far right rhetoric lately?

Rather than ask you the definition of "far right," what espousing in particular did you have in mind? If you listen to the debate, from what I could tell, it was pivot city.

I take it back, Bolduc actually did backtrack on the 2020 election lies. That's what I was referring to mostly. I didn't watch the debate, I was referring to just in general.

[Torie]

I started watching the debate, and I think I understand why the race is now a dead heat. Bolduc is actually a very effective debater and was very well prepared.

If I had to pick a Senate race that has the most potential to be the biggest upset of the year, it is this one. Bolduc has been excellent in pivoting to the center post primary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ls0Hgqun4

I'm guessing that like PA, most people didn't really watch the NH debate either. As for Bolduc pivoting towards the center... hasn't he been espousing far right rhetoric lately?

Rather than ask you the definition of "far right," what espousing in particular did you have in mind? If you listen to the debate, from what I could tell, it was pivot city.

I take it back, Bolduc actually did backtrack on the 2020 election lies. That's what I was referring to mostly. I didn't watch the debate, I was referring to just in general.

Bolduc said that he made a mistake when he said that, and admitted it. I admit my mistakes unlike my opponent, who does not retract her misstatements.

That was a very effective comment in my view.

[MT Treasurer]

I lived in NH during the 2014 Brown/Shaheen race, and if Brown couldn’t beat her then, I just have a hard time envisioning Hassan losing to Bolduc, of all people, in a post-Roe angry NH woman world.

NH men outvoting NH women in a race like this would be unprecedented in recent history; if it happens (needless to say, I’m not convinced yet), it’ll probably be because there has been a realignment among male voters in the state.

Either way, I expect a nasty gender gap here, wider than in any other Senate race.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I lived in NH during the 2014 Brown/Shaheen race, and if Brown couldn’t beat her then, I just have a hard time envisioning Hassan losing to Bolduc, of all people, in a post-Roe angry NH woman world.

NH men outvoting NH women in a race like this would be unprecedented in recent history; if it happens (needless to say, I’m not convinced yet), it’ll probably be because there has been a realignment among male voters in the state.

Either way, I expect a nasty gender gap here, wider than in any other Senate race.

I’m honestly fascinated by how large the gender divide is even in relatively homogeneous states like NH. Are politics really that toxic?

[MillennialModerate]

I lived in NH during the 2014 Brown/Shaheen race, and if Brown couldn’t beat her then, I just have a hard time envisioning Hassan losing to Bolduc, of all people, in a post-Roe angry NH woman world.

Shaheen is a MUCH better and more liked canidate then Hassan.

And that was pre Trump realignment - now Romney Republicans are voting Dem and some old fashioned Dems are voting Republican.

[xavier110]

I lived in NH during the 2014 Brown/Shaheen race, and if Brown couldn’t beat her then, I just have a hard time envisioning Hassan losing to Bolduc, of all people, in a post-Roe angry NH woman world.

Shaheen is a MUCH better and more liked canidate then Hassan.

And that was pre Trump realignment - now Romney Republicans are voting Dem and some old fashioned Dems are voting Republican.

Yes, that is true that Shaheen is much more formidable than Hassan.

But Brown was 10x Bolduc, too.

[Senator Incitatus]

It would be big time #TRENDS if Bolduc won and Masters lost.

[Ferguson97]

I lived in NH during the 2014 Brown/Shaheen race, and if Brown couldn’t beat her then, I just have a hard time envisioning Hassan losing to Bolduc, of all people, in a post-Roe angry NH woman world.

NH men outvoting NH women in a race like this would be unprecedented in recent history; if it happens (needless to say, I’m not convinced yet), it’ll probably be because there has been a realignment among male voters in the state.

Either way, I expect a nasty gender gap here, wider than in any other Senate race.

I’m honestly fascinated by how large the gender divide is even in relatively homogeneous states like NH. Are politics really that toxic?

But wouldn't you expect a larger gender divide in an ethnically homogeneous state? If race isn't an issue, then gender is. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

I lived in NH during the 2014 Brown/Shaheen race, and if Brown couldn’t beat her then, I just have a hard time envisioning Hassan losing to Bolduc, of all people, in a post-Roe angry NH woman world.

NH men outvoting NH women in a race like this would be unprecedented in recent history; if it happens (needless to say, I’m not convinced yet), it’ll probably be because there has been a realignment among male voters in the state.

Either way, I expect a nasty gender gap here, wider than in any other Senate race.

I’m honestly fascinated by how large the gender divide is even in relatively homogeneous states like NH. Are politics really that toxic?

But wouldn't you expect a larger gender divide in an ethnically homogeneous state? If race isn't an issue, then gender is. 

I'm not sure tbh because I live in a very racially diverse city. Here it seems like having so many ethnic factions also creates a larger gender divide because those communities are so tight knit. Being a black man vs a black woman in the Bronx are 2 very distinct things. Being a Jewish man and a Jewish Woman in Sheepshead Bay are two very different things culturally.

In a lot of more homogenous but non-secular white communities, it feels like there is less of that strong of an identity assigned to men and women because people aren't factioned in that same way.

[MT Treasurer]

I started watching the debate, and I think I understand why the race is now a dead heat. Bolduc is actually a very effective debater and was very well prepared.

If I had to pick a Senate race that has the most potential to be the biggest upset of the year, it is this one. Bolduc has been excellent in pivoting to the center post primary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ls0Hgqun4

Here’s their final debate from yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imrvCGobADU

Again, if you watch it, it’s not hard to see why the race is a Toss-up. I will say that I’m actually glad Bolduc won the nomination and not Morse (I don’t think he would have been nearly as relentless/on-message in going after her as Bolduc).

She’s also just a very, very poor candidate (and there’s a reason why she’s the only deeply unpopular New England incumbent).