Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

Alba is more socially conservative and is clearly going for more of a 'macho' vibe.

[Blair]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

They've been supported by a small minority of women within the SNP who oppose self identification for transgender individuals.

While Salmond is extremely unpopular, I'm a bit uneasy with how seemingly the entire commentariat has decided to proclaim that that one poll is as good as an election result. (Though it is in keeping with the relentless hyping of every poll on Scottish independence) It's a single poll, there's still some time to go and it doesn't need to be too far off for seats to be a possibility.

I think there's been a few? I was basing mine off the Yougov favourability ratings which were pre-Alba officially launching (I think?)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I think there's been a few? I was basing mine off the Yougov favourability ratings which were pre-Alba officially launching (I think?)

Only one voting intention poll for now.

[StateBoiler]

While Salmond is extremely unpopular, I'm a bit uneasy with how seemingly the entire commentariat has decided to proclaim that that one poll is as good as an election result. (Though it is in keeping with the relentless hyping of every poll on Scottish independence) It's a single poll, there's still some time to go and it doesn't need to be too far off for seats to be a possibility.

Like most things with the media and politics, it's to drive a certain narrative so that most of the people that could potentially be convinced to vote for said party dismiss it as irrelevant. There's a question of how many people not super actively politically engaged knew what it was when answering the poll.

Went to Holyrood Magazine. Headlines that pass muster in British media but not the U.S.:

https://www.holyrood.com/inside-politics/view,15-years-off-the-fags-the-story-of-scotlands-smoking-ban

[Cassius]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

My understanding is that Salmond (i don’t know whether this is official Alba ‘party policy’), wants to push the SNP in the direction of adopting a new currency as soon as practicable after a putatively successful independence vote. At the moment, as far as I can make out, the SNP’s official policy is to continue using sterling after independence, but without remaining in monetary union with the UK (something ruled out by the British government years ago). The transition to a new currency will only take place once six economic ‘tests’ (fiscal sustainability, sufficient reserves, good economic environment etc) have been passed. This could take a long time and as far as I’m aware the SNP membership actually voted at conference for a much more rapid transition to a new currency along the lines proposed by Salmond. Needless to say, both of these options are fraught with risk (the former, so-called ‘sterlingisation’, has only been adopted historically by less developed countries when their own currencies have been devalued to almost nothing), but they’re the only options on the table if the UK government holds the line on saying no to monetary union.

Of course, if Scotland plans to rejoin the EU as an independent state then Euro membership will be a necessity, so the above won’t matter very much in the long run, although that depends on how long the application process for the EU takes.

[Lord Halifax]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

My understanding is that Salmond (i don’t know whether this is official Alba ‘party policy’), wants to push the SNP in the direction of adopting a new currency as soon as practicable after a putatively successful independence vote. At the moment, as far as I can make out, the SNP’s official policy is to continue using sterling after independence, but without remaining in monetary union with the UK (something ruled out by the British government years ago). The transition to a new currency will only take place once six economic ‘tests’ (fiscal sustainability, sufficient reserves, good economic environment etc) have been passed. This could take a long time and as far as I’m aware the SNP membership actually voted at conference for a much more rapid transition to a new currency along the lines proposed by Salmond. Needless to say, both of these options are fraught with risk (the former, so-called ‘sterlingisation’, has only been adopted historically by less developed countries when their own currencies have been devalued to almost nothing), but they’re the only options on the table if the UK government holds the line on saying no to monetary union.

Of course, if Scotland plans to rejoin the EU as an independent state then Euro membership will be a necessity, so the above won’t matter very much in the long run, although that depends on how long the application process for the EU takes.

Have they considered forming a monetary union with some other small country that still has its own currency? E.g. one of the three Scandinavian countries. Might be an easier temporary solution than setting up their own since they're planning to eventually adopt the Euro anyway.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbh I kind of doubt the SNP would pursue EU membership. It's nice to keep it open, because it represents a contrast with Westminster, but the idea of Scotland being in an separate economic bloc to rUK seems ... disadvantageous, especially if they need a hard border.

[njwes]

Tbh I kind of doubt the SNP would pursue EU membership. It's nice to keep it open, because it represents a contrast with Westminster, but the idea of Scotland being in an separate economic bloc to rUK seems ... disadvantageous, especially if they need a hard border.

No sh**t. It's hard for me to understand how so many Scots can think that independence and a clear break with England will be anything but a nightmare. Braveheart was a fun movie and solid for the mid-90s (though not as good as Spice World) but it's time to move on.


Anyway it's not clear to me based on what I've read that Alba was truly founded for ideological reasons and largely political ones. But, to be fair, it DOES seem like it would make sense for a Scottish political party catering to the center-right to right-wing nationalist vote.

Even if the center-left to left wing block of nationalist is larger, I seem to remember polling from the late 00's through to 2016 indicating that of the nationalist, pro-independence portion of the Scottish electorate, something like maybe 25%-33% also self-identified as conservative or right-wing or whatever.

There was also an interesting paper from (I think) 2016 that analyzed IndyRef1 voters and Brexit referendum voters, and found that maybe 30% of those who voted for "Independence" also voted for "Leave."

So there is a constituency there maybe, but making a party to cater to them only feels like it would work in a new electoral system, maybe in, ya know, a newly independent country maybe. Right? Even with the voting system used for the Scottish Parliament right now, would there be much for Alba to work with even if they got say 80% of the 30% of conservative nationalists?

[beesley]

There was also an interesting paper from (I think) 2016 that analyzed IndyRef1 voters and Brexit referendum voters, and found that maybe 30% of those who voted for "Independence" also voted for "Leave."

Example: Banff and Buchan, the only certain pro-Brexit Westminster constituency (there's doubt about CSER), is estimated voted to for independence.

I didn't quote the rest of your post but I agree with much of it. I also think that the EU would be very hesitant to allow Scotland in when it actually came to it. The state of their economy could certainly put them in the net beneficiary zone.

[Cassius]

I think they would. After all, they’ve allowed many countries with weaker economies to join over the last thirty-five years (although tbf we did intercede quite strongly on the behalf of some of the ex-Eastern bloc nations) and allowed countries like Greece and Italy join the Euro. I rather think that the prospect of slicing off a chunk of the UK and having it rejoin the EU would be too great a propaganda coup for them to resist, so any rules that need bending will be bent (as always).

I don’t particularly see how the SNP can resile from committing itself to rejoining the EU, given how it has milked Scotland ‘being forced out of the EU against its will’ mercilessly over the last five years (plus committing to rejoin might help steady nerves in the financial/business sector if it does look like things are going to head south for the economy). On the other hand a year ago I didn’t expect that we’d have two rival nationalist parties led by the present and the former leaders of the SNP going toe to toe in the devolved elections, so I guess anything’s possible.

[Lord Halifax]

I don’t particularly see how the SNP can resile from committing itself to rejoining the EU, given how it has milked Scotland ‘being forced out of the EU against its will’ mercilessly over the last five years (plus committing to rejoin might help steady nerves in the financial/business sector if it does look like things are going to head south for the economy).

Wouldn't an EEA membership (the "Norway option") be sufficient?

[Cassius]

I don’t particularly see how the SNP can resile from committing itself to rejoining the EU, given how it has milked Scotland ‘being forced out of the EU against its will’ mercilessly over the last five years (plus committing to rejoin might help steady nerves in the financial/business sector if it does look like things are going to head south for the economy).

Wouldn't an EEA membership (the "Norway option") be sufficient?

True, I hadn’t considered that.

[cp]

I don’t particularly see how the SNP can resile from committing itself to rejoining the EU, given how it has milked Scotland ‘being forced out of the EU against its will’ mercilessly over the last five years (plus committing to rejoin might help steady nerves in the financial/business sector if it does look like things are going to head south for the economy).

Wouldn't an EEA membership (the "Norway option") be sufficient?

True, I hadn’t considered that.

But then one of the most valid reasons for the UK remaining would come into play: why pay for access if you don't get a seat at the table? Scotland would have considerably more say over the nature of its  economic relations with the rUK by using its EU veto than it would through the external consultative mechanisms that EEA membership might allow.

Tbh I kind of doubt the SNP would pursue EU membership. It's nice to keep it open, because it represents a contrast with Westminster, but the idea of Scotland being in an separate economic bloc to rUK seems ... disadvantageous, especially if they need a hard border.

Ironically, whatever 'success' of Brexit can be claimed with regards to Northern Ireland will probably defuse this argument. Hoisted on their own petard.

[brucejoel99]

Tbh I kind of doubt the SNP would pursue EU membership. It's nice to keep it open, because it represents a contrast with Westminster, but the idea of Scotland being in an separate economic bloc to rUK seems ... disadvantageous, especially if they need a hard border.

Not to seem doltish, but what would exactly be wrong with a hard border between England & Scotland ("Hadrian's Wall 2: Electric Boogaloo," if you will )? I mean, the situation in Scotland isn't like the situation in Ireland, where a hard border would result in literal bombings, so would it not just be like any other international border on Earth? Not to mention, if Scotland has already reached a point where independence has happened & they're truly intent on taking advantage thereof in order to rejoin the EU, with the consequences of setting-up a hard border & trade boundaries with its largest trade partner - England - being damned, then a hard border hardly seems like such a deal-breaking cause for panic, given that many obviously already exist between countries that nonetheless still trade closely.

[warandwar]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

Alba is more reputationally Left - people like Sheriden and Salmond and other 79 Groupers were quite radical in the 80s and are coasting on that memory. Like someone else said - macho vibe - we will push further and stand firmer than that bird Sturgeon. Plus transphobia.

[Conservatopia]

There was also an interesting paper from (I think) 2016 that analyzed IndyRef1 voters and Brexit referendum voters, and found that maybe 30% of those who voted for "Independence" also voted for "Leave."

Example: Banff and Buchan, the only certain pro-Brexit Westminster constituency (there's doubt about CSER), is estimated voted to for independence.

I wonder which prominent Scottish politician once represented this seat?

Whilst Salmond is clearly not a rightwinger he does have a considerably warmer relationship with the Right than most other SNP pols.  His close friendship with David Davis (very much on the libertarian right) is just one example.

His new party too, despite its links with far-left pols like Sheridan could actually appeal to those more conservative nationalist voters as mentioned earlier thanks to its more level-headed trans stance and less emphasis on attacking Boris and Brexit.

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nationalists-on-cohttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nationalists-on-course-to-win-supermajority-g05l8c0sturse-to-win-supermajority-g05l8c0st

Latest  Panelbase poll has Alba now at 6%

[Diouf]

Where is the power to change the Scottish electoral system located? At Westminster or Holyrood? If it ends up with a "gaming of the system" via Alba, giving a pro-independence supermajority, there might be pressure to change the system to a better one. Obviously the best thing would be to ditch the constituencies, and just have open lists in the regions, but this is the UK, so it would most likely be changed into something worse I would assume.

[beesley]

Where is the power to change the Scottish electoral system located? At Westminster or Holyrood? If it ends up with a "gaming of the system" via Alba, giving a pro-independence supermajority, there might be pressure to change the system to a better one. Obviously the best thing would be to ditch the constituencies, and just have open lists in the regions, but this is the UK, so it would most likely be changed into something worse I would assume.

That power lies with Westminster. Same goes for the Senedd - it was Labour who banned dual candidacy and the Tories who repealed that rule. Though changing the system without the consent of the Scottish government could almost certainly backfire.

There's nothing to stop a credible unionist alternative from doing the same thing as Alba, and the Panelbase poll had Alliance for Unity potentially winning a seat or two (don't place too much emphasis), so if they want to blame the system for their shortcomings they're foolish.

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot - does a lot of projections including some with a Scandinavian style proportional system, but all the usual caveats apply.

[Oryxslayer]

Where is the power to change the Scottish electoral system located? At Westminster or Holyrood? If it ends up with a "gaming of the system" via Alba, giving a pro-independence supermajority, there might be pressure to change the system to a better one. Obviously the best thing would be to ditch the constituencies, and just have open lists in the regions, but this is the UK, so it would most likely be changed into something worse I would assume.

That power lies with Westminster. Same goes for the Senedd - it was Labour who banned dual candidacy and the Tories who repealed that rule. Though changing the system without the consent of the Scottish government could almost certainly backfire.

There's nothing to stop a credible unionist alternative from doing the same thing as Alba, and the Panelbase poll had Alliance for Unity potentially winning a seat or two (don't place too much emphasis), so if they want to blame the system for their shortcomings they're foolish.

See South Korea for a good example. They tried to reform the system and input a few leveling seats, but then one party decided to game the system by not running any list candidates and instead having a shell party collect their votes. In order to not fall behind, the other big parties did it, and then the leveling seats just became PR seats. This is the eventual fate of all leveling systems unless you have strict laws to prevent such a development - such as mandating parties contest both the FPTP and the PR side of the slate.

[ElectionObserver]

Where is the power to change the Scottish electoral system located? At Westminster or Holyrood? If it ends up with a "gaming of the system" via Alba, giving a pro-independence supermajority, there might be pressure to change the system to a better one. Obviously the best thing would be to ditch the constituencies, and just have open lists in the regions, but this is the UK, so it would most likely be changed into something worse I would assume.

That power lies with Westminster. Same goes for the Senedd - it was Labour who banned dual candidacy and the Tories who repealed that rule. Though changing the system without the consent of the Scottish government could almost certainly backfire.

This is totally wrong. The power for Scotland is with the Scottish parliament and Wales the Senedd since the Scotland Act 2016/ Wales Act 2017. The UK parliament only retains power over UK Westminster elections (and PCC elections in Wales).

That's why Scotland and Wales allow 16 and 17 olds to vote or why Scotland uses STV for its local council elections.


The AMS system has always been a horrendous one which was obviously open to gaming. Anyway, it would be very easy to solve the problem of shell parties running on the list. That's by getting rid of the second ballot paper and just counting a party's total vote in each region from the first ballot paper. It would have the additional benefit of encouraging more parties to stand in each constituency and for them to campaign harder making elections more competitive. It would also make setting up splinter/ minor parties more difficult (which is an advantage IMO.

[beesley]

Where is the power to change the Scottish electoral system located? At Westminster or Holyrood? If it ends up with a "gaming of the system" via Alba, giving a pro-independence supermajority, there might be pressure to change the system to a better one. Obviously the best thing would be to ditch the constituencies, and just have open lists in the regions, but this is the UK, so it would most likely be changed into something worse I would assume.

That power lies with Westminster. Same goes for the Senedd - it was Labour who banned dual candidacy and the Tories who repealed that rule. Though changing the system without the consent of the Scottish government could almost certainly backfire.

]
This is totally wrong. The power for Scotland is with the Scottish parliament and Wales the Senedd since the Scotland Act 2016/ Wales Act 2017. The UK parliament only retains power over UK Westminster elections (and PCC elections in Wales).

My mistake. Apologies.

[ElectionObserver]

The SNP seem to have really recovered since the whole Salmond affair and are now back well above their pre-Covid level, though not as high as their mid-Covid peak.

On these numbers, nationalists should win a comfortable majority in parliament. The Ipsos-Mori poll has the result as 81 nationalists (+12 on 2016) to 48 unionists (-12). The Panelbase poll has 80 nationalists (+11) to 49 unionists (-11) - though they have Alex Salmond getting elected which would make things 'interesting' for the SNP. Both polls give the SNP a majority to govern alone with 70/ 66 out of 129.

Ipsos-Mori for STV (30/3-4/4) (Constituency / List). Changes from mid-February.
SNP 53% (+1)  /  38% (-9)
Conservatives 20% (-3)  /  21% (-1)
Labour 18% (+3)  /  18% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1)  /  6% (-)
Green 2% (-1)  /  12% (+4)
Alba  (Not standing in constituencies)  /  3% (New)

Panelbase for The Sunday Times (30/3-1/4) (Constituency / List). Changes from early March.
SNP 49% (+2)  /  39% (-3)
Conservatives 22% (-1)  /  21% (-1)
Labour 20% (-)  /  17% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)  /  5% (-2)
Green 2% (-)  /  8% (+2)
Alba  (Not standing in constituencies)  /  6% (New)
 

[Hnv1]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

My understanding is that Salmond (i don’t know whether this is official Alba ‘party policy’), wants to push the SNP in the direction of adopting a new currency as soon as practicable after a putatively successful independence vote. At the moment, as far as I can make out, the SNP’s official policy is to continue using sterling after independence, but without remaining in monetary union with the UK (something ruled out by the British government years ago). The transition to a new currency will only take place once six economic ‘tests’ (fiscal sustainability, sufficient reserves, good economic environment etc) have been passed. This could take a long time and as far as I’m aware the SNP membership actually voted at conference for a much more rapid transition to a new currency along the lines proposed by Salmond. Needless to say, both of these options are fraught with risk (the former, so-called ‘sterlingisation’, has only been adopted historically by less developed countries when their own currencies have been devalued to almost nothing), but they’re the only options on the table if the UK government holds the line on saying no to monetary union.

Of course, if Scotland plans to rejoin the EU as an independent state then Euro membership will be a necessity, so the above won’t matter very much in the long run, although that depends on how long the application process for the EU takes.

What’s the point of a tartan currency? It’s value will drop to the floor and most people will turn to a sterling black market.

And why did Salmond name the party Alba and Caledonia? Alba is whole of Britain