Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[IceAgeComing]

Feels like we are getting closer to this and so a thread is worth creating.  Going to focus on the historic side of things in the OP; then will post about important areas to watch.

Firstly though the voting system explained.  Voters get two votes; one for a local constituency MSP and one for a regional party list.  Scotland is divided up into 73 constituencies (70 on the Scottish mainland plus one seat for the Western Isles, one for Orkney and one for Shetland) and these MSPs are elected in the usual way: you vote for a candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.  These constituencies are also grouped into eight regions that each get seven MSPs and these are decided through the D'Hondt method using closed party lists.  The main thing that's important though is that these seats are compensatory: so the results in the constituencies are factored in to the regional list results.  This ensures proportionality in the parliament, and also ensures that smaller parties can get representation with an effective threshold of around 6%.

Lots has changed politically since the 2016 election: the UK has gone through three Prime Ministers, the UK (but not Scotland) voted to leave the EU, there have been two General Elections with the first showing the Conservatives going backwards in the UK while advancing in Scotland and the second having the Conservatives win a majority while going backwards in Scotland and of course a global pandemic has transformed, well, everything.  Meanwhile in that gap Scottish politics has somehow (for once!) remained remarkably consistent: the SNP under Nicola Sturgeon has topped the poll in every Scotland-wide election and her position as First Minister appears secure.

Unlike the large shifts between 2011 and 2016 there haven't been major realignments of politics in the last five years; perhaps an indication that the current situation is becoming entrenched.  In the 2016 election the SNP surprisingly lost their parliamentary majority (although a deal with the Greens does give them an overall majority on most issues) after the Conservatives under former leader Ruth Davidson dramatically increased their support; finishing ahead of Labour for the first time in a Scotland-wide election since the 1979 European elections (and before that the 1955 General election) and more than doubling their Scottish Parliament representation.  Labour fell backwards but the PR system allowed them to secure 24 seats on 19.1% of the regional list vote.  The Greens finished ahead of the Liberal Democrats for the first time with six seats and 6.6% of the list vote being their second best performance ever while the Lib Dems, still suffering from a major coalition backlash, were unable to increase their overall position however they managed to gain some constituency seats.

Since then the pattern was the Conservatives significantly improving their position at the expense of the SNP early in the term; however losing all of those gains as the term went on.  The 2017 local elections showed the SNP not making any councillor gains while the Conservatives had their best election performance since the 1995 restructuring, and in the General Election the following month the SNP lost 21 seats and fell to 37% of the vote; with the Conservatives recording 28.6% of the vote and 13 seats - their best performance since the 1983 General Election and gains essential at giving them even a vaguely-stable parliamentary position.  Labour also benefitted from the Corbyn surge during the 2017 campaign, increasing their vote share on their 2015 performance and regaining six seats from the SNP.

Things dramatically changed from there though; with inner-party divisions over Brexit and other issues causing issues for the Scottish Conservatives, who were led by Ruth Davidson; very popular in Scotland and holding moderate, pro-European views that were increasingly incompatible with the UK leadership.   Davidson went on maternity leave in late 2018 and after a brief return to front-line politics after giving birth she made the decision to leave front-line politics, officially to focus on her family but the increasingly nationalistic bent of the wider Tory Party is believed to has contributed.  Additionally, Boris Johnson is not very popular in Scotland and that also has impacted on the views towards the Scottish Conservatives in Scotland.  In the 2019 general election the Tories lost over half their seats falling to only six - still their second best performance since 1992 but a massive step backwards from 2017.  Labour suffered from a massive fall of support due to the unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn with the party going back to only one seat in Scotland, with 18.6% being their worst share of the vote in Scotland in the parties history.  The SNP advanced back to 48 seats - not quite breaking 50 again but getting close - and the Liberal Democrats retained their position however national leader Jo Swinson lost her seat.

The main political development since then has been how the various national governments have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic, with other issues (including the post-Brexit deal; which is sort of important but being ignored) being pushed to the background.  That has dramatically improved the position of the SNP: with Nicola Sturgeon's competent, careful, cautious approach to the pandemic (often re-opening things slightly behind England and enforcing mask use in shops and public transport before England) contrasts favourably to the more chaotic, slapdash approach south of the border.  Sturgeon's popularity ratings are incredibly high - remarkable for the leader of a three term government who'd been in office for six and a half years.  While a lot of this is a perception thing rather than a dramatically different approach; I think that perceived competence has made Scots more likely to follow government advice and also has improved the position of the SNP in the polls.  The new Scottish Conservative leadership, under Jackson Carlaw, hasn't been able to knock down this support with Carlaw himself being relatively anonymous with the Conservatives very much being represented by Boris and the London party, which isn't good for their electoral prospects.

The current polls are perhaps skewed by this COVID world but are in line with what they have been since the last general election so I may as well post the most recent one here:

Panelbase/The Sunday Times, 30th June-3rd July

Constituency:
SNP: 55%
Conservative: 20%
Labour: 15%
LD: 6%
Grn: 3%
Oth: <1%

Regional List:
SNP: 50%
Con: 18%
Lab: 15%
Grn: 8%
LD: 6%
Oth: 2%

The SNP have been over 50% of the constituency vote and, with a single exception, over 45% of the regional list vote in every poll since the last General Election which would almost guarantee the SNP a majority.  The Conservatives and Labour are moving backwards with both losing lots of seats if this pattern happens.  The Greens would make gains, and may end up surpassing their 2003 performance and the Liberal Democrats would likely hold on to what they have, and may gain a seat or two.

You could go seat-by-seat and analyse things at that level but I think with this voting system that isn't overly helpful because the list seats will counterbalance a lot of that stuff.  One place to watch is the North East: traditionally an SNP area (pre-2015 a majority of their Westminster representation came from there) but before that strongly Conservative, the Conservatives gained Aberdeenshire West in 2016 and many other seats in the region in 2017, a lot of which they retained in 2019.  The North East is also where a lot of the Brexit support in Scotland came from; mostly due to the strength of fishing in many communities in that region.  Seats to watch are places like Banffshire and Buchan Coast which almost certainly voted Conservative in 2017 and 2019;, Angus North and Mearns and Moray (which is in the Highland Region but relevant to talk about here) which also voted Tory in the last few General Elections: if the Conservatives do make gains in this election it will likely be in these areas.

The Central Belt is very SNP dominated with flashes of Tory and Labour seats running across it.  I don't see much possibility of any Labour/Tory gains here unless there's a massive swing against the government; so the areas that are interesting are the non-SNP held seats.  The Lib Dems hold Edinburgh Western which is probably relatively safe; with Lib Dem support holding up better than the other two Unionist parties and the Lib Dems also being best placed to benefit from the 'unionist' vote, as both Labour and Tory voters are generally comfortable with backing the Liberals.

Labour's three remaining constituency seats are here; Edinburgh Southern is where their last remaining Westminster seat is and where anti-SNP voters are used to tactically voting Labour so this is probably pretty safe (although note that in the regional vote in 2016 Labour actually finished third behind the Tories and SNP, Labour benefitting from tactical voting from Tories, Lib Dems and some Greens to win).  East Lothian and Dumbarton are a lot less secure and at this point the SNP is almost certainly ahead in both: the loss of former Labour leader Iain Gray in East Lothian doesn't exactly help their re-election chances there.

The Conservatives are defending three seats in the Central Belt; although I'm willing to give one of those away now.  Edinburgh Central was a bit of a freak occurrence with the seat being won by Ruth Davidson on only 28% of the vote due to her having a personal leadership vote and the seat being Labour held plus a strong Green campaign meaning that the anti-Conservative vote was split three ways.  With the loss of Labour incumbency and, I assume, a less strong Green campaign here and the loss of Davidson the Conservatives start off behind here.  Ayr and Eastwood are a lot less clear: both are traditional Conservative seats.  Ayr was won by the Tories in a 2000 by-election and has been held ever since although its been super-marginal ever since, and if John Scott (who's been MSP since 2000) stands down it might make the Tories less likely to retain the seat.  Eastwood takes in the most affluent areas around 'greater Glasgow' with Jackson Carlaw managing to gain the seat from Labour after the latter fell.  The Westminster equivalent was gained by the Tories in 2017 but then won back by the SNP in 2019.  The seat was a three-way marginal in 2016 although I assume that 30% Labour gets squeezed right down with the question being how that vote divides between the two other parties: if ex-Labour voters back the SNP then it makes Carlaw's position tighter although he'll be an MSP in the next parliament regardless due to the list.

Its impossible to really analyse the list until you have an idea of the constituency results but I'll attempt here.  I think there are two main things to talk about: in 2011 the SNP managed to break the electoral system by winning a list seat in the North East despite sweeping the constituencies and based on current polling there's a good chance they could do it again, although a lot more likely to happen in the Glasgow and Central Scotland regions.  The other regional list thing we can look at is the Greens since they won't win any constituencies and so we have a better idea whether they can get in.  The Greens managed to elect six MSPs in 2016: two in Lothians and one each in Glasgow, West Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the Highlands and Islands.  Current polling has them around or slightly above their 2016 performance so its unlikely that they'll be wiped out but a small fall of support would see them lose their MSPs in West Scotland (won by a very small margin) and Mid Scotland and Fife (gained mainly because of the Lib Dems gaining North East Fife); with only Patrick Harvie in Glasgow and Alison Johnstone in Lothians being secure in their positions.  Realistic Green aims in this election are to protect their current seats, add a list seat in every region (so gaining in Central Scotland, North East Scotland and South Scotland) and winning a second seat in Glasgow which is very much possible.  If former Labour voters elect to vote SNP/Green then these scenarios are all very possible.  The voting system and the links between the constituency and regional seats also means that the fate of the Greens could be reliant on those results: its marginally easier for the Greens to get in if one party doesn't sweep every constituency seat and especially Lib Dem losses in North East Fife and Edinburgh Southern might make their second Lothians seat and their Mid Scotland and Fife seat marginally harder to win.  There's no real point at looking at other minor parties since they aren't likely to be a factor: the Brexit Party built up a bit of support and were polling around the level where they might have won a seat or two but now that's very unlikely and the far left parties are no longer really a factor with their voters opting for either the SNP or the Greens.

I hope this is a good (although very wordy) OP: any feedback please let me know!

[CumbrianLefty]

Surely its only downhill for the SNP from here, and uphill for SLab.

(though we are talking in very relative terms, in both cases)

As for the Tories, they are going to miss Davidson badly.

[afleitch]

Surely its only downhill for the SNP from here, and uphill for SLab.

Why?

[DaWN]

Surely its only downhill for the SNP from here, and uphill for SLab.

Why?

Because the SNP could well.be more or less maxed out at the moment. Of course, uphill only remains a return to something resembling relevance for SLab, not challenging for power, at least not next year.

Paradoxically, I think a big SNP win next May might be the best thing for SLab in the long term.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Surely its only downhill for the SNP from here, and uphill for SLab.

Why?

Because the SNP could well.be more or less maxed out at the moment. Of course, uphill only remains a return to something resembling relevance for SLab, not challenging for power, at least not next year.

Paradoxically, I think a big SNP win next May might be the best thing for SLab in the long term.

I agree, the next term in government will most likely be somewhat traumatic for the SNP, perhaps giving another party a chance at being in government in 2026 (though I'm not convinced SLab will have a miraculous resurrection given the current party leadership).

[afleitch]

Surely its only downhill for the SNP from here, and uphill for SLab.

Why?

Because the SNP could well.be more or less maxed out at the moment. Of course, uphill only remains a return to something resembling relevance for SLab, not challenging for power, at least not next year.

Paradoxically, I think a big SNP win next May might be the best thing for SLab in the long term.

There has been a mild 'recovery' for Labour in the polling for Holyrood, but it's because of the fall in the Tory vote. The problem for Labour is that it is not a 'labour' party. It's core vote is fluid around the edges; it's mostly Unionist and flows back and forwards from the Tories (and a little vice versa). There's nothing essentially Labour about the Labour base or even the seats it can win in. A decline in the SNP vote as of the result of a fall in popularity would probably result in abstention (as in 2017) rather than a raw movement to Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The main political development since then has been how the various national governments have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic, with other issues (including the post-Brexit deal; which is sort of important but being ignored) being pushed to the background.  That has dramatically improved the position of the SNP: with Nicola Sturgeon's competent, careful, cautious approach to the pandemic (often re-opening things slightly behind England and enforcing mask use in shops and public transport before England) contrasts favourably to the more chaotic, slapdash approach south of the border.  Sturgeon's popularity ratings are incredibly high - remarkable for the leader of a three term government who'd been in office for six and a half years.  While a lot of this is a perception thing rather than a dramatically different approach; I think that perceived competence has made Scots more likely to follow government advice and also has improved the position of the SNP in the polls.

'Competent' is an interesting choice of word, given that the mortality statistics look remarkably similar to those in England, largely (it would appear) because the Scottish government followed the same murderously stupid policies regarding care homes as in England. A perception of competence, maybe. Though you have to wonder whether that can actually hold over the longer term, though that's not exactly a question unique to Scotland.

[StateBoiler]

On a mostly British non-politics board I'm on the Scots there have a lot of criticism about how Sturgeon has run things, but she's able to get by publicly on a lot of stuff by comparing herself to London-based leadership, which is something American posters are very familiar with (Governor is kinda lukewarm leader but can always say he or she is doing better than the people in D.C.).

Also talk about what the SNP is doing as far as a credible plan for nationalism if they actually want to separate in the near future: the "keep the British pound" plan Salmond had would've condemned the state of Scotland to depression in present circumstances and North Sea oil has collapsed in price.

Linkity link link: https://forum.planetrugby.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=94170

[afleitch]

On a mostly British non-politics board I'm on the Scots there have a lot of criticism about how Sturgeon has run things, but she's able to get by publicly on a lot of stuff by comparing herself to London-based leadership, which is something American posters are very familiar with (Governor is kinda lukewarm leader but can always say he or she is doing better than the people in D.C.).

Also talk about what the SNP is doing as far as a credible plan for nationalism if they actually want to separate in the near future: the "keep the British pound" plan Salmond had would've condemned the state of Scotland to depression in present circumstances and North Sea oil has collapsed in price.

There is a hard core VERY ONLINE segment of the Scottish electorate that despise the SNP and particularly Nicola Sturgeon. They flood most of the online comment sections too. One forum that I and others here are on, the Scottish contingent are almost exclusively hard core Unionists who think 'I like the SNP because x' is practically trolling

The truth is, right now she's popular. The SNP are popular. Even after 13 years in power. Scotland was solidly Labour for nearly 50 years regardless of the merits of Labour in power or out of power and regardless of the protestations of those who hated them and wondered why people still voted for them (trust me, I remember)

It doesn't mean we're expecting decades of this, but while the Scottish electorate appears volatile, since 2011 (SNP's biggest Holyrood victory was before independence was a 'thing') it's behaved within the same parameters.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sturgeon does seem to be getting stick over the exam grades business that goes beyond the usual suspects, however - whether that leads to anything longer term is another matter.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories have a new leader after Douglas Ross MP was elected unopposed.

[brucejoel99]

Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories have a new leader after Douglas Ross MP was elected unopposed.

Scottish Tories: "Let's put somebody in charge who hates having a Scottish Parliament & wants to shut it down."

Scottish Tories on May 6, 2021, when they lose votes & seats: *surprised Pikachu face*

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so question: To what extent does the "National Question" axis overpower the "Left vs Right" axis?

I know this is an unlikely scenario and that the SNP is easily heading for a majority, but let's say that, against all odds; Labour+Tories+Lib Dems get a majority over SNP+Greens

At that point what is the likeliest scenario?

A Rainbow Coalition of the 3 unionist parties? Or some sort of SNP minority government, propped up by Labour or the Libs?

[brucejoel99]

Ok, so question: To what extent does the "National Question" axis overpower the "Left vs Right" axis?

I know this is an unlikely scenario and that the SNP is easily heading for a majority, but let's say that, against all odds; Labour+Tories+Lib Dems get a majority over SNP+Greens

At that point what is the likeliest scenario?

A Rainbow Coalition of the 3 unionist parties? Or some sort of SNP minority government, propped up by Labour or the Libs?

No way a rainbow coalition happens, the reason Scottish Labour lost so much support after 2014 was for standing with the Tories during the indy referendum.

In any event, were one formed, it'd be incoherent, & thus at least somewhat incompetent. It either wouldn't be able to discipline its factions the same way that the SNP does, or whoever the junior partners are wind up getting destroyed on the back of austerity policies. In either case, the SNP (possibly with the Greens' help) would get back in again fairly quickly.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so question: To what extent does the "National Question" axis overpower the "Left vs Right" axis?

I know this is an unlikely scenario and that the SNP is easily heading for a majority, but let's say that, against all odds; Labour+Tories+Lib Dems get a majority over SNP+Greens

At that point what is the likeliest scenario?

A Rainbow Coalition of the 3 unionist parties? Or some sort of SNP minority government, propped up by Labour or the Libs?

No way a rainbow coalition happens, the reason Scottish Labour lost so much support after 2014 was for standing with the Tories during the indy referendum.

In any event, were one formed, it'd be incoherent, & thus at least somewhat incompetent. It either wouldn't be able to discipline its factions the same way that the SNP does, or whoever the junior partners are wind up getting destroyed on the back of austerity policies. In either case, the SNP (possibly with the Greens' help) would get back in again fairly quickly.

Tbh this is me basically just making a dumb comparison to Catalonia/Basque Country

Yes such a government would be very incoherent but the point isn't that but rather to "Stop the dangerous traitors from the SNP who want to break up Britain".

It does help that in Catalonia/Basque Country, the secessionists are also split into left wing and right wing parties; with for example the current Catalan government being formed of both bourgeoise rich nationalists (JxCat) and borderline communists (CUP) for instance.

[DaWN]

Sturgeon does seem to be getting stick over the exam grades business that goes beyond the usual suspects, however - whether that leads to anything longer term is another matter.

It'll be ancient history by May but cracks are visibly beginning to show in the SNP machine. Whether it'll mean anything by the election is an open question, but it may foretell some long-term problems.

Of course, it requires Scottish Labour following the Scottish Tories' example and ditching their worse-than-useless leader.

[crals]

What about the Scottish LibDems? Are they relevant in the slightest?

[DaWN]

What about the Scottish LibDems? Are they relevant in the slightest?

Outside of a select few seats, no.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

What about the Scottish LibDems? Are they relevant in the slightest?

Outside of a select few seats, no.

They should rename themselves Orkney and Shetland Party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course, it requires Scottish Labour following the Scottish Tories' example and ditching their worse-than-useless leader.

Tbh I have a feeling Leonard will fall on his sword before these elections - no actual evidence tbf, just a hunch.

Though he may delay it until early 2021 in the hope his successor might still be looking "new" come election day (I think he would also prefer that person not to be Jackie Baillie, though that may well be out of his hands now)

[bore]

Its probably an inevitable result of the SNP having been dominant so long now, but they are really descending into near labour levels of factional war. Their executive's blatant manoeuvring to block the Edinburgh Southwestern MP (prominent FBPE QC with dodgy views on the Gender Reform Act) Joanna Cherry from running for Edinburgh Central was so aggressive that it alone suggests the internal culture of the party that is seriously unhealthy. Almost no one will vote on this of course (nor did they in 2019 over the Salmond Sturgeon rift), but its the type of thing that turns a gradual decline which has initiated for other reasons into a collapse.

The exam situation really did cut through, so much so that it was the first time I've ever seen my normally apolitical but otherwise generically left wing facebook feed burst into specific criticism of the SNP, though I don't expect it on its own to have an impact either. The same goes for the shocking excess death figures which Al alluded to, and the pronounced decline in the education system more generally.

Why? Well, the scottish electorate vote based almost entirely of their own stance on the constitution, there is an almost one to one correlation between SNP voters and supporters of independence. That doesn't mean that the electorate care more about flags than real issues, just that they now view those real issues through the prism of the constitution- to fix healthcare we need to get Westminster's claws off it, to support jobs we need frictionless travel with England. Attacking the SNP on their record, though frankly the only option available to the unionist parties, isn't going to work if its merely a laundry list of things they've got wrong, because the electorate look at policy through a constitutional lens. This is another way of saying they're unduly receptive to shifting the blame to Westminster, because it is so intuitively plausible that the UK government decide everything and so obvious that the UK government are hostile to Scotland. What you need to do is find errors in areas that the scottish government are acknowledged to be completely in control of, and prosecute them without in anyway defending the hideously unpopular British Government. This is vital because if you are associate with them this will immediately nix any chance of the electorate accepting your argument as a good faith one, and once you've lost that they will assume that you're lying about the scottish governments control over and responsibility for the errors in the first place. Its a tough needle to thread, and I have no confidence in any of the unionist politicians to do so, which is why I'm not expecting the bubble to burst anytime soon.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think this is why the education row is potentially so dangerous for the SNP, as it is and always has been a Scottish responsibility, not something that can be put down to Westminster.

That said, English exam results are being released on Thursday and it's likely the process will be approximately as much of a disaster as it was north of the border, so if the SNP can somehow suggest that it would have been even worse if Johnson was in charge of it, then it might let them shift the story on to more favourable ground.

A lot will depend upon what the changes Sturgeon has committed to making actually involve. If they're substantial, the story probably goes away. If they're cosmetic and seen as such, then it could keep running.

[bore]

A lot will depend upon what the changes Sturgeon has committed to making actually involve. If they're substantial, the story probably goes away. If they're cosmetic and seen as such, then it could keep running.

So now we know what Sturgeon's response is, complete capitulation:

Tens of thousands of school pupils are to have their exam results upgraded after the Scottish government agreed to accept teacher estimates of scores.

The government u-turn follows an outcry from pupils after a moderation system saw 125,000 estimated results being downgraded.

All results that were downgraded will now be withdrawn and replaced by the original estimates.

Which, regardless of whether this is the best policy (I would say it is, but only from the perspective that if the fairness and integrity of the exam system was my aim I wouldn't be starting from here) this will almost certainly avoid lasting damage on this specifically, though the hope for other parties is that if you're clumsy once you'll soon be clumsy again.

[Blair]

FWIW it was fascinating to see the people who were prepared to frankly eat sh**t defending an awfully implemented policy & those who were happy to say that it had been cocked up; it was equally funny to see those who claimed 'well I doubt you'll be complaining about English results' when this u-turn actually puts a lot of pressure on the English Government to do the same.

I think the most charitable defence is that they massively took their eye of the ball when this was an issue back in May (when this was all consulted on, at least in England) & seemed shocked that it had such cut through

[xelas81]

I know that it highly likely that current polling number will change if there is Indyref2 but since yes is leading, is there any push from hardcore independence supporters for IndyRef2?

[afleitch]

A lot will depend upon what the changes Sturgeon has committed to making actually involve. If they're substantial, the story probably goes away. If they're cosmetic and seen as such, then it could keep running.

So now we know what Sturgeon's response is, complete capitulation:

Tens of thousands of school pupils are to have their exam results upgraded after the Scottish government agreed to accept teacher estimates of scores.

The government u-turn follows an outcry from pupils after a moderation system saw 125,000 estimated results being downgraded.

All results that were downgraded will now be withdrawn and replaced by the original estimates.

Which, regardless of whether this is the best policy (I would say it is, but only from the perspective that if the fairness and integrity of the exam system was my aim I wouldn't be starting from here) this will almost certainly avoid lasting damage on this specifically, though the hope for other parties is that if you're clumsy once you'll soon be clumsy again.

Possibly. But a poll conducted post Cherry, Douglass Ross and 'Swinney must go' has just put the SNP on 57%.

Usually the press attack if the results are up, which they were,  because there must be political interference or the exams are too 'easy' now complained that they weren't up enough and that there wasn't enough intervention and no doubt will complain when they are down, which they will be, next year. The need to get the Scottish Government on anything will have ramifications for the results in rUK once they hit the doorsteps tomorrow.

I agree that there's nothing Swinney could do but throw it back to the trachers and it has forced the UK Education Secretary to do the same. Personally I see it as a misstep; it's a matter for the examination bodies and should not have been politicised by a desperate Scottish unionist adjacent media.