Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[afleitch]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.

Orange lodges are most dense in the North Lanarkshire, Falkirk, West Lothian triangle. Anecdotally (the Monklands saga etc) the SNP did relatively better there in the past at least until the 90's (but still far behind Labour) but this has actually reversed and heavily so since the referendum. Indeed, there's some alleged entryism in Labour branches here.

[Coldstream]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.

Orange lodges are most dense in the North Lanarkshire, Falkirk, West Lothian triangle. Anecdotally (the Monklands saga etc) the SNP did relatively better there in the past at least until the 90's (but still far behind Labour) but this has actually reversed and heavily so since the referendum. Indeed, there's some alleged entryism in Labour branches here.

More than entryism: https://www.thenational.scot/news/17800593.scottish-labour-councillor-gets-top-job-orange-order/

[EastAnglianLefty]

But entryism implies people joining. Lanarkshire Labour has had sectarian elements (both Protestant and Catholic) for as long as there's been a Labour Party.

[Coldstream]

But entryism implies people joining. Lanarkshire Labour has had sectarian elements (both Protestant and Catholic) for as long as there's been a Labour Party.

That’s why I said more than entryism. There’s always been a hardline Protestant unionist part of Scottish Labour, not just in Lanarkshire, some of the still standing Glasgow Labour stalwarts are from that working class unionist base too.

[Frodo]

From mid-January, so I am surprised no one has posted this yet:

Scottish nationalists set for record majority, boosting independence push

The SNP is expected to win 71 of 129 seats in the Scottish parliament, eight seats more than it won in the last election in 2016, according to the poll carried out by Savanta ComRes and published in The Scotsman newspaper.

The only other time the SNP has won a majority was in 2011 when it won 69 seats under former leader Alex Salmond.

Johnson’s Conservative Party may lose 14 seats in the Scottish parliament and the opposition Labour Party may lose three, the poll found, leaving the Conservatives with 17 seats and the Labour Party with 21.

If you're a unionist, the news is grim.  

Now it looks like though the SNP will still win an overall majority, they will have even less seats than they did ten years ago:

SNP could win narrow majority in Scottish election, poll suggests
The SNP could win a narrow majority of seats after the Scottish Parliament elections, a poll suggests.

Survation’s opinion poll for the Daily Record found Nicola Sturgeon’s party would win 67 seats at the election on May 6.

The poll put the other parties on a total of 62 seats, giving the SNP a majority of five.

This is based on the party taking an average of 50 per cent of the constituency vote and 38 per cent of the regional list vote.

Fieldwork for the poll of 1,011 Scots was carried out on Thursday and Friday last week.

It suggests Scottish Labour would win 24 MSPs at the Holyrood elections with 20 per cent of the constituency vote, though the polling was carried out before Anas Sarwar was elected as the new leader of the party.

The Conservatives would lose their spot as the largest opposition party despite receiving 21 per cent of the constituency vote, going from 31 to 21 MSPs.

The Scottish Greens would go from six to 11 MSPs while the Scottish Liberal Democrats would gain one MSP, giving them a total of six.

If these polls go down even lower, that makes the likelihood of another independence referendum even dimmer. 

[Zinneke]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.

Did these areas vote against devolution?

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.

Did these areas vote against devolution?

Nowhere voted against in 1997 and what opposition there was was concentrated in the North East, Perthshire and the Borders (ie the bits where the Tories were strongest, although most of them were also strong SNP areas and seem to have had lower turnout, so maybe some SNP supporters boycotted?)

In 1979 I can only see results by region, which isn't granular enough to tell. I wouldn't be surprised, given that the turnout threshold for the 1979 referendum was imposed due to the actions of Labour MPs representing such areas and given that mining areas were the traditional stronghold of Labour anti-devolution sentiment in Wales.

[afleitch]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.

Did these areas vote against devolution?

Nowhere voted against in 1997 and what opposition there was was concentrated in the North East, Perthshire and the Borders (ie the bits where the Tories were strongest, although most of them were also strong SNP areas and seem to have had lower turnout, so maybe some SNP supporters boycotted?)

In 1979 I can only see results by region, which isn't granular enough to tell. I wouldn't be surprised, given that the turnout threshold for the 1979 referendum was imposed due to the actions of Labour MPs representing such areas and given that mining areas were the traditional stronghold of Labour anti-devolution sentiment in Wales.

Labour refused to work with the official 'Yes' campaign as it contained the SNP. Helen Liddell who was Secretary at the time said 'We will not soil our hands'. Indeed the official Yes campaign despite being headed by a Tory; Lord Kilbrandon was boycotted due the SNP so Labour set up their own.

The unions did come through; TGW, Confederation of Shipbuilders etc.

Worth nothing that the Church of Scotland was a long standing supporter of devolution. Catholics were a little cooler towards the idea due to Northern Ireland.

In terms of supporter polling had Tories pretty much 50-50 in January but 75-25 against the Assemblt in February.

The campaign was trying to herd cats.

[CumbrianLefty]

Now it looks like though the SNP will still win an overall majority, they will have even less seats than they did ten years ago:

The really "messy" result would be the SNP falling narrowly short of a "de facto" majority (ie with the generally Indy-sympathetic Scottish Greens included) As there likely wouldn't be any stable "unionist" arrangement in such a scenario either.

[Estrella]

Now it looks like though the SNP will still win an overall majority, they will have even less seats than they did ten years ago:

The really "messy" result would be the SNP falling narrowly short of a "de facto" majority (ie with the generally Indy-sympathetic Scottish Greens included) As there likely wouldn't be any stable "unionist" arrangement in such a scenario either.

Is it possible to call a snap election?

[beesley]

Well looks like I was wrong in thinking this wouldn't stick, but Sturgeon is clearly in the wrong here. This article provides a good summary of what's happened up until now: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56259056

In summary, there have been calls for Sturgeon to resign after it was revealed she breached the ministerial code and misled the Scottish Parliament, and the opposition Tories have tabled a no confidence motion.

I also mentioned it in the UK General Discussion thread.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Seems odd for a no confidence vote to be called before she's actually given evidence. Probably means it's more likely the SNP will act in unison on this, than if they'd had another day of bad blood being aired in which to damage themselves?

[njwes]

Seems odd for a no confidence vote to be called before she's actually given evidence. Probably means it's more likely the SNP will act in unison on this, than if they'd had another day of bad blood being aired in which to damage themselves?

Maybe the Scottish Tories just want to get ahead of the other Unionist parties?

[afleitch]

Seems odd for a no confidence vote to be called before she's actually given evidence. Probably means it's more likely the SNP will act in unison on this, than if they'd had another day of bad blood being aired in which to damage themselves?

Outside of the 'bubble' there is quite a wide feeling that 'well you've already made up you minds' when it comes to Sturgeon. The media and the opposition haven't waited to hear her and had no intention to.

What came out today was some evidence in support of the talk of names being shared/leaked etc, but none of it directly links back to Sturgeon. What she says tomorrow is key. I still think it's likely she stays simply because no one cares. Not to say they shouldn't care, but it's not really captured public attention.

[njwes]

Any idea what the feelings are atm within the SNP itself, the MPs and MSPs in Westminster and Holyrood? Have they mostly stayed quiet on this? Is there a notable "anti-Sturgeon" faction among them?

[Zinneke]

Seems odd for a no confidence vote to be called before she's actually given evidence. Probably means it's more likely the SNP will act in unison on this, than if they'd had another day of bad blood being aired in which to damage themselves?

Outside of the 'bubble' there is quite a wide feeling that 'well you've already made up you minds' when it comes to Sturgeon. The media and the opposition haven't waited to hear her and had no intention to.

What came out today was some evidence in support of the talk of names being shared/leaked etc, but none of it directly links back to Sturgeon. What she says tomorrow is key. I still think it's likely she stays simply because no one cares. Not to say they shouldn't care, but it's not really captured public attention.

The way Alex Salmond has been adopted as a hero by the right-wing press just goes to show how much bad faith is behind this campaign.

[beesley]

The way Alex Salmond has been adopted as a hero by the right-wing press just goes to show how much bad faith is behind this campaign.

Well obviously. Let me introduce you to something known as 'politics.' The same politics that has informed how Nicola Sturgeon has behaved, in my view.

Any idea what the feelings are atm within the SNP itself, the MPs and MSPs in Westminster and Holyrood? Have they mostly stayed quiet on this? Is there a notable "anti-Sturgeon" faction among them?

Traditionally the SNP has been divided into 'gradualists' and 'fundamentalists'. Fundamentalists want the SNP to fight for independence above all else and as a key policy aim without pursuing devolution or a referendum, whereas gradualists want independence but through democratic means (e.g. referenda) and through the accumulation of powers in the Scottish Parliament. The fundamentalists tend to be more left-wing. The two wings of the party faced eachother one on one in 2000, when gradualist John Swinney (the man who released all this evidence) defeated fundamentalist Alex Neil (now one of the highest profile supporters of Brexit within the SNP) 2 to 1.

Since devolution however the SNP leadership has generally adopted a gradualist position, including Alex Salmond, so the division is more on the Salmond/Sturgeon factions. The Sturgeon faction has more representation, especially at Westminster, where only a handful of MPs are in the Salmond camp. One of those MPs is Joanna Cherry who wanted to move to the Scottish Parliament but had the rules changed to prevent her from seeking the nomination whilst still an MP. That nomination has now gone to key Sturgeon ally and former SNP Westminster Leader Angus Robertson. So there are a number of proxy wars that take place. However none of them have really commented on this particular case.

Seems odd for a no confidence vote to be called before she's actually given evidence. Probably means it's more likely the SNP will act in unison on this, than if they'd had another day of bad blood being aired in which to damage themselves?

Well, you'd think so. But don't expect the unionist parties in Scotland to be good at politics.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some tough questioning for Sturgeon at FMQs today, but no killer blow.

This looks set to run a while yet.

[afleitch]

Some tough questioning for Sturgeon at FMQs today, but no killer blow.

This looks set to run a while yet.

Not only was it tough, but it was repetitive. Which feeds into a growing narrative that the more partisan members of the committee had already made up their minds. So kept asking the same questions again and again. Jackie Baillie for example, challenged Sturgeon on a conversation that she was never involved in and hadn't heard. And when Sturgeon said 'I've answered this three times' Baillie snapped 'Well answer it a fourth'. So Sturgeon spent most of the afternoon responding 'as I already said' or simply that she couldn't answer because it didn't involve her.

For me, I think it was a very resourceful move by the partisan members because it allowed a half dozen of the same responses allowing for those reporting to pick the one that was mumbled, tired or exasperated. But instead it left reporters with too much to work with.

There isn't much meat in this to chew. There wasn't last week with Salmond and based on the questions today I think it's clear that what people think it going to fall on partisan lines anyway.

There is some 'very online' support for Sturgeon that has been unexpected though, particularly along the lines of Salmond's gaslighting of women who accused him of misconduct is extending to his treatment of Sturgeon.

[beesley]

There isn't much meat in this to chew. There wasn't last week with Salmond and based on the questions today I think it's clear that what people think it going to fall on partisan lines anyway.

There is some 'very online' support for Sturgeon that has been unexpected though, particularly along the lines of Salmond's gaslighting of women who accused him of misconduct is extending to his treatment of Sturgeon.

I think you hit the nail on the head there, but to be honest I don't know why we ever expect anyone to be bi-/non-partisan. I think the mistake opposition parties (and arguably Alex Salmond) have made is to try and make this into more of a scandal than it actually is. The fact that there are two accusers involved seems to be an inconvenience for them. I agree that Sturgeon is definitely in the wrong but we've seen this before with Canada's SNC-Lavalin scandal, in the sense that it matters most to partisans and is not going to be high up the priority list for many ordinary people, particularly in the pandemic. It's hardly a coincidence Sturgeon announced the potential easing of lockdown restrictions; she's politically astute enough.

Richard Lochhead said that a lot of new people had joined the Moray SNP, or at least more people than usual attended their meeting. Not that I think Douglas Ross should be worried as if he loses Moray he was unlikely to win it anyway, and he's obviously the strongest candidate they could have found.

[beesley]

Two technical Labour gains in the North Lanarkshire Council by-elections, but without gains in actual vote share, because this is STV.

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1367861677765574658?s=20

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1367788768317542403?s=20

[afleitch]

Yes, wards that have the oddity of having prior by-elections.

Swings to the SNP from Labour based on the 2017 results (which was a month before the GE) with an independent intervention in Thorniewood and a loss of one (nominally Unionist) in Fortissat.

It suggests relative stability in the vote.

[CumbrianLefty]

Many of the votes in these by-elections were cast by post before the latest stuff really blew up.

There are more Scottish vacancies coming up, so it will be possible to observe if there is any drop in SNP performance (or not, as the case may be) as the above factor lessens.

[jaichind]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-no-vote-lead-as-salmond-inquiry-drives-voters-away-from-scottish-independence-3157134

Latest poll on Scotland Independence shows a No lead 46-43.  It seems the entire Salmond affair is making a difference, at least on the short term.

[beesley]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-no-vote-lead-as-salmond-inquiry-drives-voters-away-from-scottish-independence-3157134

Latest poll on Scotland Independence shows a No lead 46-43.  It seems the entire Salmond affair is making a difference, at least on the short term.

It seems to be the case, but I always remind myself Andrew Scheer isn't the Canadian Prime Minister.

If I were Anas Sarwar I wouldn't focus on it because Alex Salmond and the Tories will. Call it out, but position yourself as the clear, centre-left alternative.