Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[bore]

I voted in Edinburgh Southern at about 12:30 and for the first time in my life there was a queue. Even with the caveat of social distancing and them having changed the polling station from the primary school to a church hall, I am thus able to make the following rating change.

EDINBURGH SOUTHERN TURNOUT

TOSSUP ----------------> LEAN BRISK

What's the feeling 'on the ground' about the SNP's chances? Edinburgh Southern voted strongly against independence, but it looks like the unionist vote was split heavily in 2016 so the SNP came very close.

I can't say I have any special insight, work has taken me away from home for the duration of the pandemic. What I would say is that Labour are much safer than the numerical majority would suggest for a couple of reasons. 2016 was an eon ago in scottish politics (before, among other things, Brexit) and the tories claim that they were the best unionist choice, which may have had some purchase then has lost all plausibility now, while Ian Murray very comfortably held South (the boundaries are slightly different but if anything Southern is less favourable to the SNP) even in 2019.

Fundamentally, even with fewer students this is close to the perfect seat for Scottish Labour (and not, as I am tired of tories insisting online, the conservatives - unionist tactical voting does not explain why they haven't held it since 1987, no constituency with similar demographics (dominated by a university, city centre, 75% remain) is remotely competitive for them in england), which is why it was a gain in the general meltdown of 2016, and with a reasonably strong incumbent and the party doing as well if not better than then there is no real reason for it to be lost.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I voted in Edinburgh Southern at about 12:30 and for the first time in my life there was a queue. Even with the caveat of social distancing and them having changed the polling station from the primary school to a church hall, I am thus able to make the following rating change.

EDINBURGH SOUTHERN TURNOUT

TOSSUP ----------------> LEAN BRISK

What's the feeling 'on the ground' about the SNP's chances? Edinburgh Southern voted strongly against independence, but it looks like the unionist vote was split heavily in 2016 so the SNP came very close.

I can't say I have any special insight, work has taken me away from home for the duration of the pandemic. What I would say is that Labour are much safer than the numerical majority would suggest for a couple of reasons. 2016 was an eon ago in scottish politics (before, among other things, Brexit) and the tories claim that they were the best unionist choice, which may have had some purchase then has lost all plausibility now, while Ian Murray very comfortably held South (the boundaries are slightly different but if anything Southern is less favourable to the SNP) even in 2019.

Fundamentally, even with fewer students this is close to the perfect seat for Scottish Labour (and not, as I am tired of tories insisting online, the conservatives - unionist tactical voting does not explain why they haven't held it since 1987, no constituency with similar demographics (dominated by a university, city centre, 75% remain) is remotely competitive for them in england), which is why it was a gain in the general meltdown of 2016, and with a reasonably strong incumbent and the party doing as well if not better than then there is no real reason for it to be lost.

Makes sense. So I would imagine Labour hold. As for some Tory constituencies of that description, I was thinking of Oxford West, but that doesn't contain most of the students (and is now Lib Dem). Coincidentally, Cambridge too was last won by the Tories in 1987 (against Shirley Williams).

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed voting the SNP out 

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In Aberdeen Central, voted for Mr Sarwar to restore Order and Progress a bit after 1. The polling station was practically deserted.

I don't expect the result here to be anything other than a bone-crushing SNP landslide (if you go around town you'll notice the only parties whose supporters are putting up signs seem to be SNP and Alba) but if the turnout carried on like that after I left, then who knows really, maybe the Labour candidate (who I have not bothered to research at all because, knowing Aberdeen Labour, he'd probably tremendously disappoint me in some way) could even get within 15 points of Kevin Stewart this time, or the Tories will come second, or something even sillier.

[afleitch]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

[beesley]

In Aberdeen Central, voted for Mr Sarwar to restore Order and Progress a bit after 1. The polling station was practically deserted.

I don't expect the result here to be anything other than a bone-crushing SNP landslide (if you go around town you'll notice the only parties whose supporters are putting up signs seem to be SNP and Alba) but if the turnout carried on like that after I left, then who knows really, maybe the Labour candidate (who I have not bothered to research at all because, knowing Aberdeen Labour, he'd probably tremendously disappoint me in some way) could even get within 15 points of Kevin Stewart this time, or the Tories will come second, or something even sillier.

Part of the reason why Labour came a respectable second in the constituency last time if I recall was the personal vote of Lewis MacDonald, one of the few constituency MSPs lucky enough to put themselves forward for a list seat in 2011. Labour have otherwise really tanked in Aberdeen in recent years.

[ElectionObserver]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

[beesley]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

That seems to be the case, but I'm hearing ground reports that the increase is skewed towards areas less favourable to the SNP.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Will there be an exit poll like a GB election?

[Oryxslayer]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

That seems to be the case, but I'm hearing ground reports that the increase is skewed towards areas less favourable to the SNP.

Tome for some #Analysis:

- If it ends up being good for the Unionists, the story will be the Jersey bickering motivated unionists to turn out - since turnout wins these elections, not vote transfers.

- If it ends up being good for the SNP, the story will be the SNP voters know which seats were competitive and didn't turnout in the Safe areas and did in competitive ones.


BBC Scotland Results page for tomorrow: https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c37d28xdn99t/scottish-parliament-election-2021

[beesley]

Will there be an exit poll like a GB election?

Nope. They've never done one for these.

[ElectionObserver]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

That seems to be the case, but I'm hearing ground reports that the increase is skewed towards areas less favourable to the SNP.

Are you talking about that Lib Dem in Edinburgh Western? I have seen the complete opposite online too with SNP people saying they are really happy.
Really, nobody has any idea until the ballots are counted who has voted and who they have voted for.

[beesley]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

That seems to be the case, but I'm hearing ground reports that the increase is skewed towards areas less favourable to the SNP.

Are you talking about that Lib Dem in Edinburgh Western? I have seen the complete opposite online too with SNP people saying they are really happy.
Really, nobody has any idea until the ballots are counted who has voted and who they have voted for.

Nope I had heard that more generally including in Rutherglen and elsewhere in Edinburgh but as you say who knows. ACH isn't a trustworthy source, I'm aware.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

That seems to be the case, but I'm hearing ground reports that the increase is skewed towards areas less favourable to the SNP.

Are you talking about that Lib Dem in Edinburgh Western? I have seen the complete opposite online too with SNP people saying they are really happy.
Really, nobody has any idea until the ballots are counted who has voted and who they have voted for.

Nope I had heard that more generally including in Rutherglen and elsewhere in Edinburgh but as you say who knows. ACH isn't a trustworthy source, I'm aware.

What is "ACH"?

[beesley]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

That seems to be the case, but I'm hearing ground reports that the increase is skewed towards areas less favourable to the SNP.

Are you talking about that Lib Dem in Edinburgh Western? I have seen the complete opposite online too with SNP people saying they are really happy.
Really, nobody has any idea until the ballots are counted who has voted and who they have voted for.

Nope I had heard that more generally including in Rutherglen and elsewhere in Edinburgh but as you say who knows. ACH isn't a trustworthy source, I'm aware.

What is "ACH"?

Alex Cole-Hamilton, who was a LD MSP running for reelection.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

That seems to be the case, but I'm hearing ground reports that the increase is skewed towards areas less favourable to the SNP.

Are you talking about that Lib Dem in Edinburgh Western? I have seen the complete opposite online too with SNP people saying they are really happy.
Really, nobody has any idea until the ballots are counted who has voted and who they have voted for.

Nope I had heard that more generally including in Rutherglen and elsewhere in Edinburgh but as you say who knows. ACH isn't a trustworthy source, I'm aware.

What is "ACH"?

Alex Cole-Hamilton, who was a LD MSP running for reelection.

Ah. Okay.

[adma]

What is "ACH"?

Alex Cole-Hamilton, who was a LD MSP running for reelection.

Ah. Okay.
[/quote]

Am I the only one who wants to read "ACH" with a Scottish burr?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Do we have any quantitative data on turnout? That's usually the first thing known; after all you can get it from the voter rolls they cross out when you come to vote.

[YL]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

That seems to be the case, but I'm hearing ground reports that the increase is skewed towards areas less favourable to the SNP.

Are you talking about that Lib Dem in Edinburgh Western? I have seen the complete opposite online too with SNP people saying they are really happy.
Really, nobody has any idea until the ballots are counted who has voted and who they have voted for.

Nope I had heard that more generally including in Rutherglen and elsewhere in Edinburgh but as you say who knows. ACH isn't a trustworthy source, I'm aware.

Turnout rumours are basically never trustworthy.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I read 60.8% turnout for Scotland. That would be the highest ever, surpassing 58.5% in the inaugural 1999 election.

[beesley]

Some credible sounding rumours:

Cons and SNP neck and neck in Banffshire (north east) but Cons may lose Edinburgh Central to SNP
Lab likely to hold Edinburgh Southern and East Lothian
LD likely to hold Edinburgh Western and NE Fife

None surprising.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What I'm hearing from the Aberdeen Donside count suggests SNP possibly down from 2016, Tories up noticeably but still miles behind, Labour holding steady, Lib Dems flirting with losing their deposit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What I'm hearing from the Aberdeen Donside count suggests SNP possibly down from 2016, Tories up noticeably but still miles behind, Labour holding steady, Lib Dems flirting with losing their deposit.

How much impact might this have on the proportional seats if something like this is reflected in the final result?

[Lord Halifax]

When will we get the results?

[beesley]

When will we get the results?

Coming in slowly now. Orkney held by LDs and Aberdeen Donside held by SNP.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What I'm hearing from the Aberdeen Donside count suggests SNP possibly down from 2016, Tories up noticeably but still miles behind, Labour holding steady, Lib Dems flirting with losing their deposit.

The actual result was SNP 51.6 (-4.4) Tories 26.4 (+8) Labour 15.3 (-3) LD 6 (-1.3) TUSC 0.7. So quite strong for the Tories and not too bad for Labour and the Lib Dems considering the Tories' position as the 'tactical' (they beat Labour by 30-odd votes last time but who cares about that, lol) unionist choice.