Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[beesley]

Stephen Kerr, the former Stirling MP who was defeated in 2019 by the largest margin of any incumbent in Scotland, has carpetbagged over to the Central Scotland region and is top of the Conservative list there after two MSPs retired. As Graham Simpson is again second the low female representation in the party looks set to be even smaller.

For some reason they aren't announcing all their list candidates in one day, with the North East Scotland list being announced tomorrow.

[Andrea]

In West of Scotland, sitting MSP Maurice Corry has been dumped down to 8th place in the Conservative list.
Jackson Carlow is first. New candidate Russell Findlay is in second spot. Sitting MSP  Jamie Greene is third. New candidate Pam Gosal is 4th

In Highlands list, the top of the list is exactly the same as 2016: Douglas Ross followed by Edward Mountain, Donald Cameron and Jamie Halcro Johnston.

[beesley]

In West of Scotland, sitting MSP Maurice Corry has been dumped down to 8th place in the Conservative list.

Any reason why that may have happened, other than the lack of a Ruth endorsement?

[afleitch]

Interesting map from the Fortissat by-elections

It shows the core Unionist vote in this part of the wold; the BUP leading in Harthill in the past, Labour in Shotts.

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1368985922004545538

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/AnasSarwar/status/1371053205967241224?s=20

Sturgeon and Sarwar will face off against each other, but Sturgeon should still win, it's 'Likely SNP' at worst at the moment.

If Labour were to do well I could imagine a scenario where Labour gain 5 or so constituencies (Provan, Pollok, Kelvin, Rutherglen, and either Anniesland or Maryhill) but Sarwar isn't elected because he's second on the list. As entertaining as such a scenario might be it's unlikely.

[Frodo]

Scottish Lawmakers Find Sturgeon Misled Parliament, Sky Reports

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon misled parliament when giving evidence to a committee investigating her government’s mishandling of harassment complaints against her predecessor, Alex Salmond, Sky News and other British media reported.

The cross-party inquiry, which will publish its findings on March 23, found that Sturgeon gave an inaccurate account of what happened when she gave evidence earlier this month, the broadcaster said, without saying where it got the information. The decision by the Scottish Parliamentary committee was reached by a majority vote, Sky said.

Significantly, the lawmakers didn’t conclude that she knowingly misled parliament, Sky said. A breach of the ministerial code of that nature normally would be a resignation matter. A second, independent inquiry by a former Irish director of public prosecutions is looking into whether Sturgeon broke the code.

The Scottish Parliament said the Harassment Committee was still finalizing its report and would make no comment ahead of its publication.

[IceAgeComing]

https://twitter.com/AnasSarwar/status/1371053205967241224?s=20

Sturgeon and Sarwar will face off against each other, but Sturgeon should still win, it's 'Likely SNP' at worst at the moment.

If Labour were to do well I could imagine a scenario where Labour gain 5 or so constituencies (Provan, Pollok, Kelvin, Rutherglen, and either Anniesland or Maryhill) but Sarwar isn't elected because he's second on the list. As entertaining as such a scenario might be it's unlikely.

Of course in reality this does not really matter since whoever loses (Sarwar almost certainly) would get in on the list: the only vaguely realistic scenarios where this does not happen would require the SNP to only lose Glasgow Southside and then not win a seat on the list (very unlikely) or a scenario where Labour make a number of breakthroughs in other Glasgow seats to the point where they are not entitled to any list seats (again: very unlikely).  I suspect if the latter was the case Sarwar would be standing in one of the other Glasgow seats: the fact that he's contesting Southside suggests that is not going to happen.  Its also not totally out of vanity: his father represented Govan (the predecessor seat) in Westminster from 1997 to 2005 and he's got links to the area.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/AnasSarwar/status/1371053205967241224?s=20

Sturgeon and Sarwar will face off against each other, but Sturgeon should still win, it's 'Likely SNP' at worst at the moment.

If Labour were to do well I could imagine a scenario where Labour gain 5 or so constituencies (Provan, Pollok, Kelvin, Rutherglen, and either Anniesland or Maryhill) but Sarwar isn't elected because he's second on the list. As entertaining as such a scenario might be it's unlikely.

Of course in reality this does not really matter since whoever loses (Sarwar almost certainly) would get in on the list: the only vaguely realistic scenarios where this does not happen would require the SNP to only lose Glasgow Southside and then not win a seat on the list (very unlikely) or a scenario where Labour make a number of breakthroughs in other Glasgow seats to the point where they are not entitled to any list seats (again: very unlikely).  I suspect if the latter was the case Sarwar would be standing in one of the other Glasgow seats: the fact that he's contesting Southside suggests that is not going to happen.  Its also not totally out of vanity: his father represented Govan (the predecessor seat) in Westminster from 1997 to 2005 and he's got links to the area.

Of course, I just found the idea entertaining.

[beesley]

A nice campaign video for you all from an independent candidate, though I feel the non-Brits might not get it as intended.

[Frodo]

A nice campaign video for you all from an independent candidate, though I feel the non-Brits might not get it as intended.

His appearance reminds me of someone:

 

[beesley]

A nice campaign video for you all from an independent candidate, though I feel the non-Brits might not get it as intended.

His appearance reminds me of someone:

 

Funny as he's one of the most anti SNP public figures. I guess there is no correlation.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1374037808017506308?s=20

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1374037808017506308?s=20

inb4 Sturgeon destroys Ruth Davidson yet again this week

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1374037808017506308?s=20

Perhaps this is why the Tories hate her so much, all their favorite politicians seem to love breaking the ministerial code

[GALeftist]

Sturgeon has survived a vote of no confidence, which the Tories elected to still have despite the inquiry's findings. It appears that the SNP and Greens uniformly opposed the motion, while the Tories uniformly supported it (as well as the lone Reform UK MSP). Labour and the Lib Dems abstained (save for Mike Rumbles who voted yes).

[brucejoel99]

Sturgeon has survived a vote of no confidence, which the Tories elected to still have despite the inquiry's findings. It appears that the SNP and Greens uniformly opposed the motion, while the Tories uniformly supported it (as well as the lone Reform UK MSP). Labour and the Lib Dems abstained (save for Mike Rumbles who voted yes).

The Tories & Reform UK left looking stupid... so, the usual?

[YL]

Alex Salmond is launching a new party: the Alba Party.

(Alba is Scottish Gaelic for Scotland.)

[beesley]

It appears as if the Alba Party is only standing on the list. I have a feeling this move will backfire in some way but I can't think how. It sort of undermines the idea Salmond isn't acting for political reasons though. If it does go as hoped however, it will be great for him.

[CumbrianLefty]

This doesn't rule out pro-Salmond "spoiler" candidates in some constituencies.

[Coldstream]

Unless they start going against the SNP this is simply a great way to maximise Pro-Independent MSP’s and game the list system, I can’t see why unionists are cheering this.

[beesley]

Unless they start going against the SNP this is simply a great way to maximise Pro-Independent MSP’s and game the list system, I can’t see why unionists are cheering this.

Exactly, which is the whole point of Alliance for Unity as well. The risks are high for Salmond which is why I think it may backfire, but if Salmond gets a pro-independence majority in which Alba are kingmakers... Not saying that will happen.

[Coldstream]

Unless they start going against the SNP this is simply a great way to maximise Pro-Independent MSP’s and game the list system, I can’t see why unionists are cheering this.

Exactly, which is the whole point of Alliance for Unity as well. The risks are high for Salmond which is why I think it may backfire, but if Salmond gets a pro-independence majority in which Alba are kingmakers... Not saying that will happen.

I agree the chance of failure is high, but Salmonds career is effectively over anyway - I don’t think there’s much of a risk to him in that sense,

[CumbrianLefty]

Unless they start going against the SNP this is simply a great way to maximise Pro-Independent MSP’s and game the list system, I can’t see why unionists are cheering this.

Hard to see the SNP saying "don't vote for us on the list, vote for Alba". And even if it doesn't turn out that way, there must be little doubt Salmond intends this to hurt Sturgeon rather than the reverse.

[Coldstream]

Unless they start going against the SNP this is simply a great way to maximise Pro-Independent MSP’s and game the list system, I can’t see why unionists are cheering this.

Hard to see the SNP saying "don't vote for us on the list, vote for Alba". And even if it doesn't turn out that way, there must be little doubt Salmond intends this to hurt Sturgeon rather than the reverse.

Alba have said people should vote SNP in the constituency vote. It’s hard to see people not being smart enough to work out the best chance of getting an independence majority is to vote SNP constituency and Alba list.

[Blair]

I think the most likely option is for a rather embarrassing result- according to the polls Salmond is pretty despised.