Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[brucejoel99]

Will people seriously vote for a party that's 6 six weeks old & was hastily put together under a questionable leader? If so, then they might need to get their head checked. If you're pro-independence but don't wanna give your list vote to the SNP for whatever reason, then just vote for the Greens instead.

If he truly cared about independence at all, then he wouldn't be trying to split the vote. He must be really jealous of the fact that his deputy-turned-replacement has undeniably outperformed him since she took over from him if all he wants to do is continue dragging the country through the mud with his sordid behavior, because this is purely an ego-based attempt to stab the SNP & the independence movement in the back for a perceived betrayal, but at the end of the day, it amounts to nothing more than a sorry sideshow undertaken by a dead man walking.

[Coldstream]

Will people seriously vote for a party that's 6 six weeks old & was hastily put together under a questionable leader? If so, then they might need to get their head checked. If you're pro-independence but don't wanna give your list vote to the SNP for whatever reason, then just vote for the Greens instead.

If he truly cared about independence at all, then he wouldn't be trying to split the vote. He must be really jealous of the fact that his deputy-turned-replacement has undeniably outperformed him since she took over from him if all he wants to do is continue dragging the country through the mud with his sordid behavior, because this is purely an ego-based attempt to stab the SNP & the independence movement in the back for a perceived betrayal, but at the end of the day, it amounts to nothing more than a sorry sideshow undertaken by a dead man walking.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

[Coldstream]

In the short term electorally unionists will take a hit from this in May due to the way apportionment works (how big of one remains unknown).

Though if a second independence referendum is rushed through due to Salmond in the next 18 months the unionists ought to win it, the Nationalists best chance was to do what the Brexit campaign did and sideline Salmond (as they did Farage) to win over swingy moderates who like Sturgeon but unconvinced and scared of the Salmond/Cherry nutcases.

So having Salmond back is good for unionists in the long term even if it makes the chances of a unionist government at holyrood very unlikely under the current system.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The threshold to get a list seat in the various regions is about 5-6%. The SNP list vote in 2016 was about 40%. About 15% of the Scottish electorate have a favourable opinion of Alex Salmond.

I think the most likely outcome is that Alba wins an MSP or two, although that's as likely to hurt the Greens as it is the unionist parties. It would be surprising if they're able to elect a second MSP from any region though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Kenny MacAskill MP has become the first SNP parliamentarian to defect to the Alba Party.

[beesley]

Kenny MacAskill MP has become the first SNP parliamentarian to defect to the Alba Party.

Probably the most likely of all the MPs though I still went 'wow' upon reading this. He was a key Salmond ally and member of his cabinet best known for the Megrahi release, and clearly took his side and the side of Joanna Cherry in regards to recent events. MacAskill also called for judicial reform in the wake of Salmond's trial. For those reasons alone he was not appointed to Blackford's frontbench team. The other MPs that were not are Angus MacNeil and Joanna Cherry. Neale Hanvey was but was removed for supporting a lawsuit against his colleague.

[beesley]

For what it's worth former SNP MP Corri Wilson, one of the worst MPs in recent history, has also joined Alba. Presumably she'll be on their South Scotland list.

[brucejoel99]

Kenny MacAskill MP has become the first SNP parliamentarian to defect to the Alba Party.

For what it's worth former SNP MP Corri Wilson, one of the worst MPs in recent history, has also joined Alba. Presumably she'll be on their South Scotland list.

One of the perils of being a perpetually dominant party is that you'll tend to attract a bunch of opportunists & grifters who just wanna use your party apparatus to enrich themselves & advance their own careers. If Alba does the job of weeding at least some of them out, then that's honestly a plus, as is - or, rather, will be - the opportunity to watch them end up going the way of Change UK & Chuka.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Speaking of which, Neale Hanvey has also defected.

[CumbrianLefty]

Speaking of which, Neale Hanvey has also defected.

It remains a tragedy that he beat Lesley Laird in the first place.

[YL]

I don't get the impression that the SNP are disappointed by any of the defections so far.

[afleitch]

I don't get the impression that the SNP are disappointed by any of the defections so far.

We're ecstatic (Eck-static?)

Genuinely. If I had a bingo card of every MP, councillor and NEC member I expected would defect personally and wanted to defect they pretty much have done. Including one whose election to the NEC almost made me resign. They all worked their way into the party to try and take the reins, had a really sh-tty week that didn't go according to plan and then jumped ship.

We're probably the first UK party whose TERF wing has basically left. Women who bleat on about threats to women's spaces and safety from imagined fears...joining Alex Salmond.

[Frodo]

Poll tracker: how will SNP fare in Scotland’s May elections?

The Scottish National party is on course to be the largest group in the Scottish parliament after May elections, although it may struggle to secure an overall majority, according to a poll of polls by the Financial Times.

(...) Analysts said the move on Friday by former first minister Alex Salmond to launch a new pro-independence party called Alba could deprive the SNP of an overall majority in the Scottish parliament after the elections. The FT poll tracker has yet to take account of Alba.

Opinion polls for the 73 Scottish parliament constituencies show the SNP and Conservatives narrowly ahead of their results at the last election in 2016.

The SNP, which gained power in Scotland in 2007, will be targeting Labour-held seats such as Dumbarton, East Lothian and Edinburgh Southern. The SNP will also be hoping to seize the marginal constituency of Edinburgh Central from the Conservatives.

A further 56 members of the Scottish parliament are elected from party lists drawn from eight regions.

The latest polls put the parties in a very similar position to the last election. The surveys suggest the Greens might do well enough to ensure there is a pro-independence majority in Edinburgh even if the SNP fails to achieve one on its own, although this does not factor in Alba’s impact.

Support for independence seems to have flagged a bit recently:

Scotland is evenly split on its key constitutional question, with polls showing supporters and opponents of independence almost exactly level. Backing for Scottish independence increased during 2020 and averaged above 50 per cent for a time before dropping in recent months.

Analysts said the fall in support for independence may be partly due to the UK’s successful coronavirus vaccine rollout. A bitter rift between Sturgeon and Salmond could also be a factor.

[StateBoiler]

Unless they start going against the SNP this is simply a great way to maximise Pro-Independent MSP’s and game the list system, I can’t see why unionists are cheering this.

Hard to see the SNP saying "don't vote for us on the list, vote for Alba". And even if it doesn't turn out that way, there must be little doubt Salmond intends this to hurt Sturgeon rather than the reverse.

Alba have said people should vote SNP in the constituency vote. It’s hard to see people not being smart enough to work out the best chance of getting an independence majority is to vote SNP constituency and Alba list.

That's quite the shrewd gaming of the system. Well done to whoever Salmond's political strategists are. Throw on top of it the unionists are hopelessly splintered and will never cooperate with one another. This is a structural flaw in the constituency plus list system they have exposed to the world. Why would any party ever run in both constituencies AND lists from now on? It would make more sense if you had the Judean People's Front run only in constituencies and the People's Front of Judea run only in list seats. That way the People's Front of Judea can maximize their representation since they did not win any seats at the constituency level.

[afleitch]

For post Alba poll:

3%

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1377680333446000643

[brucejoel99]

For post Alba poll:

3%

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1377680333446000643

L I B    D E M    S U R G E

[jaichind]

For post Alba poll:

3%

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1377680333446000643

I am surprised Alba is so low.  Does not SNP voters know that pro-independence parties gains more seats by voting Alba vs SNP ? 

[Oryxslayer]

For post Alba poll:

3%

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1377680333446000643

I am surprised Alba is so low.  Does not SNP voters know that pro-independence parties gains more seats by voting Alba vs SNP ? 

The Scottish Greens theoretically already served that role, and they have been gaining over the past month in response to the Sturgeon-Salmond SNP conundrum.

[Blair]

Not that it means much but listening to Alex Salmons on Radio 4 this morning made it perfectly clear he is yesterday’s ego, to create a phrase.

He’s not popular or particularly liked 

[CumbrianLefty]

Not that it means much but listening to Alex Salmons on Radio 4 this morning made it perfectly clear he is yesterday’s ego, to create a phrase.

He’s not popular or particularly liked 

Has very similar ratings to the person in your username and pic, strangely enough.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Not that it means much but listening to Alex Salmons on Radio 4 this morning made it perfectly clear he is yesterday’s ego, to create a phrase.

He’s not popular or particularly liked 

Has very similar ratings to the person in your username and pic, strangely enough.

And both still maintain a relatively small but loud following o/c.

[Blair]

Not that it means much but listening to Alex Salmons on Radio 4 this morning made it perfectly clear he is yesterday’s ego, to create a phrase.

He’s not popular or particularly liked 

Has very similar ratings to the person in your username and pic, strangely enough.

Well yes I was going to post that but it appeared quite meta; most despised by people in their own party, hated for their actions both in & especially out of office but retains an extremely vocal minority of support. 

[StateBoiler]

Not that it means much but listening to Alex Salmons on Radio 4 this morning made it perfectly clear he is yesterday’s ego, to create a phrase.

He’s not popular or particularly liked 

Has very similar ratings to the person in your username and pic, strangely enough.

Well yes I was going to post that but it appeared quite meta; most despised by people in their own party, hated for their actions both in & especially out of office but retains an extremely vocal minority of support. 

He's one of the grand total of 2 Labour leaders that were able to win an election the last 70 years.

[Blair]

Not that it means much but listening to Alex Salmons on Radio 4 this morning made it perfectly clear he is yesterday’s ego, to create a phrase.

He’s not popular or particularly liked 

Has very similar ratings to the person in your username and pic, strangely enough.

Well yes I was going to post that but it appeared quite meta; most despised by people in their own party, hated for their actions both in & especially out of office but retains an extremely vocal minority of support. 

He's one of the grand total of 2 Labour leaders that were able to win an election the last 70 years.

Well yes! Much like Salmond he was an extremely skilled politician in his day but I think if Blair had taken the approach of Salmond (setting up a splinter New New Labour Party with a rump of MPs) it would probably get a similar approach to Alba- Blair has to his credit since 2010 known that he's too toxic to interfere in most internal or even external elections in the UK.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

While Salmond is extremely unpopular, I'm a bit uneasy with how seemingly the entire commentariat has decided to proclaim that that one poll is as good as an election result. (Though it is in keeping with the relentless hyping of every poll on Scottish independence) It's a single poll, there's still some time to go and it doesn't need to be too far off for seats to be a possibility.