Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Cassius]

I’m probably being very stupid, but I’m still unconvinced that it wouldn’t have been better simply to plough on with the exams as per usual. I think they could’ve been done under reasonably socially distanced conditions, perhaps in smaller groups and staggered out over the course of the day (ie half a cohort sits the exam first then the other half sits it immediately afterwards). Obviously, there might be resourcing difficulties in terms of having enough invigilators, and having staggered cohorts sit the exams separately raises the possibility of cheating, but I’m sure these problems could have been overcome with sufficient preparation. There’s also the question of whether a lot of kids would’ve been well prepared enough to sit the exams given the... patchy, teaching they’ve received over he last three months (understandably patchy unfortunately), but I still think it would have been better than the grotesque farrago we’ve seen over the last week.

I have to say, whilst obviously it’s a total sh**tshow for anyone who has the misfortune to be going through it right now, this pandemic has performed a valuable service in showcasing what a disaster our entire education system is (both at the secondary and higher levels).

[Cassius]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

My understanding is that Salmond (i don’t know whether this is official Alba ‘party policy’), wants to push the SNP in the direction of adopting a new currency as soon as practicable after a putatively successful independence vote. At the moment, as far as I can make out, the SNP’s official policy is to continue using sterling after independence, but without remaining in monetary union with the UK (something ruled out by the British government years ago). The transition to a new currency will only take place once six economic ‘tests’ (fiscal sustainability, sufficient reserves, good economic environment etc) have been passed. This could take a long time and as far as I’m aware the SNP membership actually voted at conference for a much more rapid transition to a new currency along the lines proposed by Salmond. Needless to say, both of these options are fraught with risk (the former, so-called ‘sterlingisation’, has only been adopted historically by less developed countries when their own currencies have been devalued to almost nothing), but they’re the only options on the table if the UK government holds the line on saying no to monetary union.

Of course, if Scotland plans to rejoin the EU as an independent state then Euro membership will be a necessity, so the above won’t matter very much in the long run, although that depends on how long the application process for the EU takes.

[Cassius]

I think they would. After all, they’ve allowed many countries with weaker economies to join over the last thirty-five years (although tbf we did intercede quite strongly on the behalf of some of the ex-Eastern bloc nations) and allowed countries like Greece and Italy join the Euro. I rather think that the prospect of slicing off a chunk of the UK and having it rejoin the EU would be too great a propaganda coup for them to resist, so any rules that need bending will be bent (as always).

I don’t particularly see how the SNP can resile from committing itself to rejoining the EU, given how it has milked Scotland ‘being forced out of the EU against its will’ mercilessly over the last five years (plus committing to rejoin might help steady nerves in the financial/business sector if it does look like things are going to head south for the economy). On the other hand a year ago I didn’t expect that we’d have two rival nationalist parties led by the present and the former leaders of the SNP going toe to toe in the devolved elections, so I guess anything’s possible.

[Cassius]

I don’t particularly see how the SNP can resile from committing itself to rejoining the EU, given how it has milked Scotland ‘being forced out of the EU against its will’ mercilessly over the last five years (plus committing to rejoin might help steady nerves in the financial/business sector if it does look like things are going to head south for the economy).

Wouldn't an EEA membership (the "Norway option") be sufficient?

True, I hadn’t considered that.

[Cassius]

https://youtu.be/WoRfxS5esRc

Finally, a truly blessed party political broadcast.

[Cassius]

It’s pretty dubious if you ask me to treat the Scottish Parliament vote as a proxy for an independence referendum. Whilst it’s probable that 99%+ of those who voted for the Tories/Alba will also vote for that party’s preferred constitutional position in a referendum, for the others it’s more open to question as to whether 99%+ of their voters would back their party’s preferred position. More to the point, as far as I’m aware the polling done on whether there should be a referendum in the near future at all suggests a relative lack of enthusiasm for one, so I think it’s pretty clear that these results point more towards to broad satisfaction with the SNP’s performance in government (and increased support for the Greens due to the rising salience of environmental issues) than a desire for a rapid referendum.

[Cassius]

I am not sure I get the SNP logic on mandate for referendum.    In 2016 SNP+Greens also had a majority yet I did not see SNP claim back then there was a need for a second referendum yet this time SNP+Greens having a majority justifies a referendum ?

The last election was a couple of months prior to the EU referendum, so the SNP didn’t have the fig leaf of a ‘material change in circumstances’ to cover the demand for a second referendum. Once the country voted to leave, the SNP began trotting that line out, only to go silent on the subject after the 2017 general election given the massive reverse they suffered that year, falling from 50 to 37 percent of the vote and losing 21 seats.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391109074138411009?s=19

Is it fair to say that southern/lowland Scotland is essentially an extension of northern England? 

Depends on which part of ‘Northern England’ (which is an ill-defined region with a lot of stereotypes attached that don’t always correlate well with the particularities of various areas in ‘the north’). Historically there was a lot of cross-over between the Scottish Borders and the two most northerly historic counties of Northumberland (from whence Northumbrian small-pipes, which look and sound rather like bagpipes, originate) and Cumberland, with local families holding lands on both sides of the border and that border being ill-defined and prone to shifting historically. I don’t know enough about the area to be sure, but I’d imagine that today there’s some cross-border commuting/use of services as there is between the border areas of Wales and England. Also the borders is very rural which typically augurs well for the Tories, even in Scotland.