Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Geoffrey Howe]

So the SNP not really improving on 2016 so far?

[Oryxslayer]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

[Continential]

The SNP holds Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley Glasgow Anniesland.

[afleitch]

Likely result in Rutherglen soon. This could be very close but SNP favourite to retain.

There might be slight shades of 2017 in Lanarkshire seats that have a generally older population, plus some pro-Tory tactical unwind.

[beesley]

ALBA apparently only getting 700 list votes in Aberdeen Donside - half of this seat was represented by Alex Salmond and Westminster.

[Oryxslayer]

List vote for Aberdeen Donside is apparently horrible for Alba at 2%, unsurprisingly. Aberdeen is basically the targeted part of the Nationalist vote by Alba, so probably 0 seats for Alba.

[jaichind]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

[Oryxslayer]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

Yes, but polls said the SNP would do near 10% worse on the list when compared to the constituency. About 1/7 SNP voters went Green and 1/50 went Alba. The Alba votes are likely to be wasted, but the Greens will gain. So the SNP can't count on maybe even any list sets outside of the south. However they still will likely form government thanks to the Greens.

Other news, SNP held the Safe seat of Falkirk east. Similar story to other safe seats where changes were marginal at best.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

The SNP doesn't seem to get many regional seats at all outside of very unionist regions like the South Scotland. The only list seat outside South Scotland was a single seat from Highlands and Islands.

As oryxslayer said, the way to get nationalist list seats is the with the Greens (or Alba if they had done better).

[Geoffrey Howe]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

Other news, SNP held the Safe seat of Falkirk east. Similar story to other safe seats where changes were marginal at best.

3 point swing to Labour for what that's worth.

[bore]

I wouldn't say Banffshire & Buchan Coast was a 'really poor result' for the Tories. They won Banff & Buchan by less than 10% in 2019 and the more Tory friendly rural parts of that seat are in the Aberdeenshire East Scottish parliamentary seat instead (that will be an interesting constituency when it comes in). It's a bit of a Tory underperformance vis-à-vis 2019 but it's hardly catastrophic.

A bit of a tory underperformance vis a vis 2019 is catastrophic.

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

No, see here. Basically the more constituency seats you get the harder it is to get a regional seat even if you get the same proportion of the vote across both, but even this won't be the case because the greens will mean that the snp's regional vote is lower than their constituency one.

[beesley]

SNP have also held Angus North and Mearns.

[jaichind]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

No, see here. Basically the more constituency seats you get the harder it is to get a regional seat even if you get the same proportion of the vote across both, but even this won't be the case because the greens will mean that the snp's regional vote is lower than their constituency one.

Right.  So net net, unionist tactical voting in constituencies seats does not matter because even if they gain a seat or two from SNP or prevent losses to SNP the fact is the regional seat distribution will compensate for those gains or losses.  If so the only thing that matters is SNP regional vote relative to other parties.

[vileplume]

I wouldn't say Banffshire & Buchan Coast was a 'really poor result' for the Tories. They won Banff & Buchan by less than 10% in 2019 and the more Tory friendly rural parts of that seat are in the Aberdeenshire East Scottish parliamentary seat instead (that will be an interesting constituency when it comes in). It's a bit of a Tory underperformance vis-à-vis 2019 but it's hardly catastrophic.

A bit of a tory underperformance vis a vis 2019 is catastrophic.

Not in that seat. Banffshire & Buchan Coast is a very different seat politically to the rest of Scotland in that it's both Yes voting and Leave voting. It's hardly surprising that the SNP would do better there when Independence not Brexit is the primary issue.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

No, see here. Basically the more constituency seats you get the harder it is to get a regional seat even if you get the same proportion of the vote across both, but even this won't be the case because the greens will mean that the snp's regional vote is lower than their constituency one.

Right.  So net net, unionist tactical voting in constituencies seats does not matter because even if they gain a seat or two from SNP or prevent losses to SNP the fact is the regional seat distribution will compensate for those gains or losses.  If so the only thing that matters is SNP regional vote relative to other parties.

I haven't done the maths but it seems possible to me that unionists could win a constituency seat without giving the SNP a list seat. May be wrong.

[Oryxslayer]

Glasgow Southside - the Sturgeon/Sawar seat.

Sturgeon - 19735
Sawar - 10279
Cons - 1790
Others - 856

Strong swing towards Labour thanks to Unionist tactical voting.



Unionist consolidation behind the Lib-Dems in Caithness did not however flip the seat.

[afleitch]

Much better result for Sturgeon than I was anticipating.

[IceAgeComing]

Sarwar's father was MP for most of the seat for a long time and his family has a presence in the region plus Sarwar is Scottish Labour leader so he'll be carrying a personal vote with him as well.

The results are incredibly hard to read: which I think is expected.  What we have seen is that the luck appears to be going the way of the SNP: the marginals that have come in so far have all gone their way and there are some other seats that they seem optimistic in while the Tories aren't in the seats they are defending: and if the SNP get to 65 constituencies (and realistically 63 or 64 since they'll have a few list seats in South Scotland) then the list doesn't matter when it comes to their majority.  Will be a long wait though.

Shetland isn't surprising: Tavish Scott was the Lib Dem MSP in 2016 and had been there since the beginning so clearly had a large personal vote (had a 17% majority against an Independent in 2011 which was the nadir for the Lib Dems in Scotland) and the Lib Dems fell hard in the by-election - the key difference between the by-election and the General Election is that while that vote was split between the SNP and an Independent two years ago in this election it all went to the SNP.

[Oryxslayer]

Lib Dems hold Shetland on a 19 point swing to the SNP.

And then on the other side of the coin Rennie won East Fife with a large personal vote that consolidated the unionist behind him.

[beesley]

SNP hold Airdrie and Shotts on a 3 point swing to Labour.

Good news for Neil Gray's staff.

[bore]

Lib Dems hold Shetland on a 19 point swing to the SNP.

And then on the other side of the coin Rennie won East Fife with a large personal vote that consolidated the unionist behind him.

Wow, Methil is not a place you'd expect the lib dems to do well in.

[afleitch]

SNP hold Paisley on a negligible swing against them. Greens stood here.

Greens got 4.5% but no real noticeable drain from the SNP.

[Geoffrey Howe]

SNP hold Paisley on a negligible swing against them. Greens stood here.

Greens got 4.5% but no real noticeable drain from the SNP.

Yes, and the total unionist vote declined. Good results for the nationalists.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Results are coming in quickly; shall I stop cluttering the thread unless there is something striking?

[jeron]

Apparently the vote is tight in Ayr, SNP are confident they have won it. The incumbent is John Scott who had held the seat since 2000