Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

More damaging stuff coming out by the hour.

Even now, I am sceptical this will massively affect May's elections - ie the SNP are still going to win. But could it yet make the difference between getting a pro-independence majority or not?

[beesley]

More damaging stuff coming out by the hour.

Even now, I am sceptical this will massively affect May's elections - ie the SNP are still going to win. But could it yet make the difference between getting a pro-independence majority or not?

That and whether Anas Sarwar can change things at all for Scottish Labour (probability: unlikely, but better than Leonard)

[Blair]

It might be because it's an excessively bubble esque story (parliamentary committee arguing with prosecutor about releasing evidence) but it's still remarkable that this hasn't had less cut through & hasn't caused bigger issues in the SNP.
 

[afleitch]

It might be because it's an excessively bubble esque story (parliamentary committee arguing with prosecutor about releasing evidence) but it's still remarkable that this hasn't had less cut through & hasn't caused bigger issues in the SNP.
 

It's a bubble esque story as no one can understand it. It has the potential to be deeply damaging but that depends on whether Salmond is telling the truth. He has no desire to attend Holyrood to face questions. If Sturgeon's evidence is deemed credible then all Salmond has is 'it's all a big conspiracy' and no one likes him enough to care.

[Not Me, Us]

If SNP wins big, what are the odds of a second referendum? Would the national Parliament go along with it?

[KaiserDave]

If SNP wins big, what are the odds of a second referendum? Would the national Parliament go along with it?

Unlikely

https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-independence-boris-johnson-urges-voters-to-ignore-pointless-referendum-talk-12201455

[Flyersfan232]

are they unionists that vote snp if so why?

[Zinneke]

If SNP wins big, what are the odds of a second referendum? Would the national Parliament go along with it?

Unlikely

https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-independence-boris-johnson-urges-voters-to-ignore-pointless-referendum-talk-12201455

It might come down to the courts, and these are significantly less biased than, say, Spain's.

[beesley]

are they unionists that vote snp if so why?

Quite a few, generally for one of the following reasons:

• They like Nicola Sturgeon, her policies in government and her role as an advocate for Scotland more generally. This applies particularly in some left-wing unionist areas e.g. Leith.
• They believe that the SNP are the strongest voice for Scotland at Westminster and will fight for Scotland more strongly than Labour
• The fact her SNP are more electable a government than Scottish Labour which is in frequent disarray. Jeremy Corbyn was also never that popular in Scotland.
• They are particularly pro-EU and staunchly in favour of rejoining (it doesn't make sense since that would require independence, I know), which the Tories aren't and national Labour aren't.
• They are left-wing or anti-Brexit tactical voters in a few areas against the Tories. Electorally, only the SNP really compete in all geographical areas of Scotland. The Tories are weak in the central belt where SNP non-tactical support is too strong anyway, and Labour are weak in the Highlands, North East and South.

[CumbrianLefty]

Salmond has been giving his evidence today.

[njwes]

What proportion of the SNP's base would you say is/was pro-Brexit? 25%? A third? (Or--possibly close to the same thing--what proportion of pro-Independence Scots were also pro-Brexit?)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Depends which part of Scotland you're talking about. The SNP's traditional heartlands in NE Scotland were some of the most pro-Brexit parts of Scotland, whereas their new strongholds in the central belt were strongly in favour of Remain.

[afleitch]

Anas Sarwar won the SLAB leadership. He is their 9th permanent leader since 1999.

[Coldstream]

Sarwar isn’t perfect, but he’s at least a serious politician and the best Scottish Labour have.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Sarwar isn’t perfect, but he’s at least a serious politician and the best Scottish Labour have.

Jackie Baillie

[Coldstream]

Sarwar isn’t perfect, but he’s at least a serious politician and the best Scottish Labour have.

Jackie Baillie

She didn’t want it.

[beesley]

Salmond has been giving his evidence today.

I'm not a fan of Sturgeon at all, and I think she's very much in the wrong, but I doubt this is going to have the impact certain people want it to. It's also notable how some news agencies have hardly reported on it at all, while others are making it out to be some sort of Scottish Watergate.

[afleitch]

Salmond has been giving his evidence today.

I'm not a fan of Sturgeon at all, and I think she's very much in the wrong, but I doubt this is going to have the impact certain people want it to. It's also notable how some news agencies have hardly reported on it at all, while others are making it out to be some sort of Scottish Watergate.

Yes. It's been hard to make much hay with it.

Some in politics and the media have gotten ahead of themselves in not only in deciding that what Salmond is saying 'must be correct' but embellishing what he said because it didn't fit with that they assumed he was going to say during his testimony (cough Sarah Smith)

Sturgeon still hasn't appeared yet and there's nothing remotely close to 'ministerial code breaking' that hasn't been topped by various Tory ministers on day's that end in y.

The idea that this might not be as damaging as was hoped, can't be distilled into a one sentence soundbite and that the public might not care has been lost on many.

Having said that, Sturgeon wants to go. If the thinks she can go after May, and handover most of a term to a successor she will.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sarwar isn’t perfect, but he’s at least a serious politician and the best Scottish Labour have.

Jackie Baillie

As with Ian Murray (the sole Scottish Labour MP) she is probably a bit too right wing.

Sarwar is somewhat more in the mainstream.

[afleitch]

So we have two North Lanarkshire by-elections on Thursday in Thorniewood and Fortissat, then three the following week and four the week after.

These are worth watching. Thorniewood was close in 2017 andcFortissat is as close to a Labour bastion you can find. Transfers will deny the SNP here but worth looking at vote share up's and downs.

[beesley]

Fortissat is as close to a Labour bastion you can find.

Such is Scotland that the most rural ward in N Lanarkshire ends up being the biggest Labour bastion in the local authority.

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1366063132402147329
George Galloway is voting Tory for his first vote and then for himself.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Fortissat is as close to a Labour bastion you can find.

Such is Scotland that the most rural ward in N Lanarkshire ends up being the biggest Labour bastion in the local authority.

North Lanarkshire is a mining area, though, and unlike in England former mining areas are still some of Labour's strongest areas (hence Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath being competitive, for example.) So rural/urban isn't necessarily the most informative frame to see things through.

[beesley]

Fortissat is as close to a Labour bastion you can find.

Such is Scotland that the most rural ward in N Lanarkshire ends up being the biggest Labour bastion in the local authority.

North Lanarkshire is a mining area, though, and unlike in England former mining areas are still some of Labour's strongest areas (hence Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath being competitive, for example.) So rural/urban isn't necessarily the most informative frame to see things through.

True, I hadn't thought of that. I suppose you could say the same about the SNP and new towns.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.