Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[brucejoel99]

Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories have a new leader after Douglas Ross MP was elected unopposed.

Scottish Tories: "Let's put somebody in charge who hates having a Scottish Parliament & wants to shut it down."

Scottish Tories on May 6, 2021, when they lose votes & seats: *surprised Pikachu face*

[brucejoel99]

Ok, so question: To what extent does the "National Question" axis overpower the "Left vs Right" axis?

I know this is an unlikely scenario and that the SNP is easily heading for a majority, but let's say that, against all odds; Labour+Tories+Lib Dems get a majority over SNP+Greens

At that point what is the likeliest scenario?

A Rainbow Coalition of the 3 unionist parties? Or some sort of SNP minority government, propped up by Labour or the Libs?

No way a rainbow coalition happens, the reason Scottish Labour lost so much support after 2014 was for standing with the Tories during the indy referendum.

In any event, were one formed, it'd be incoherent, & thus at least somewhat incompetent. It either wouldn't be able to discipline its factions the same way that the SNP does, or whoever the junior partners are wind up getting destroyed on the back of austerity policies. In either case, the SNP (possibly with the Greens' help) would get back in again fairly quickly.

[brucejoel99]

A question : why has DevoMax so often touted before the referendum not been revived. Surely it makes better sense for Nationalists and could be somewhat attractive to Scottish Labour in a reduced format?

Because the unionist parties can't be trusted to follow through on it.

As it stands, the British Parliament sits in England, is dominated by English politicians, & is beholden to the English electorate. In order for federalism to work, England would need to broken up into regions, which would dilute their power & bring equilibrium to the UK.

The unionist parties - of course - need to win in England to form a government, so none of them are gonna seriously push for federalism & try to convince the English electorate to have reduced influence in order to appease the Scots (& Welsh & Northern Irish). Not even Scottish Labour's heart is really in it.

At the end of the day, Scotland would need the agreement of the English electorate (which is unlikely, given the fact that 78% of the North East already rejected devolution in 2004) & even if that succeeded, Scotland would - contrary to its wishes - still be out of the EU.

So at this point, independence is really the only way for Scotland to get what it wants.

[brucejoel99]

She is the acting Tory "leader" in Hoyrood for the time being, given that Ross is based in Westminster.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, though unless Ruth can reverse Brexit & retroactively improve the UK's COVID-19 response, I don't think this'll be helping the Scottish Tories.

[brucejoel99]

Barring any surprises, the SNP is set to take back a majority this time, yes. Things are certainly looking cautiously optimistic for Scotland. May they hopefully embark on a final push to rid themselves of Westminster once & for all.

[brucejoel99]

Yay, now we get to look forward to somebody taking over from whoever's gonna take over from Leonard.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1374037808017506308?s=20

inb4 Sturgeon destroys Ruth Davidson yet again this week

[brucejoel99]

Sturgeon has survived a vote of no confidence, which the Tories elected to still have despite the inquiry's findings. It appears that the SNP and Greens uniformly opposed the motion, while the Tories uniformly supported it (as well as the lone Reform UK MSP). Labour and the Lib Dems abstained (save for Mike Rumbles who voted yes).

The Tories & Reform UK left looking stupid... so, the usual?

[brucejoel99]

Will people seriously vote for a party that's 6 six weeks old & was hastily put together under a questionable leader? If so, then they might need to get their head checked. If you're pro-independence but don't wanna give your list vote to the SNP for whatever reason, then just vote for the Greens instead.

If he truly cared about independence at all, then he wouldn't be trying to split the vote. He must be really jealous of the fact that his deputy-turned-replacement has undeniably outperformed him since she took over from him if all he wants to do is continue dragging the country through the mud with his sordid behavior, because this is purely an ego-based attempt to stab the SNP & the independence movement in the back for a perceived betrayal, but at the end of the day, it amounts to nothing more than a sorry sideshow undertaken by a dead man walking.

[brucejoel99]

Kenny MacAskill MP has become the first SNP parliamentarian to defect to the Alba Party.

For what it's worth former SNP MP Corri Wilson, one of the worst MPs in recent history, has also joined Alba. Presumably she'll be on their South Scotland list.

One of the perils of being a perpetually dominant party is that you'll tend to attract a bunch of opportunists & grifters who just wanna use your party apparatus to enrich themselves & advance their own careers. If Alba does the job of weeding at least some of them out, then that's honestly a plus, as is - or, rather, will be - the opportunity to watch them end up going the way of Change UK & Chuka.

[brucejoel99]

For post Alba poll:

3%

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1377680333446000643

L I B    D E M    S U R G E

[brucejoel99]

Tbh I kind of doubt the SNP would pursue EU membership. It's nice to keep it open, because it represents a contrast with Westminster, but the idea of Scotland being in an separate economic bloc to rUK seems ... disadvantageous, especially if they need a hard border.

Not to seem doltish, but what would exactly be wrong with a hard border between England & Scotland ("Hadrian's Wall 2: Electric Boogaloo," if you will )? I mean, the situation in Scotland isn't like the situation in Ireland, where a hard border would result in literal bombings, so would it not just be like any other international border on Earth? Not to mention, if Scotland has already reached a point where independence has happened & they're truly intent on taking advantage thereof in order to rejoin the EU, with the consequences of setting-up a hard border & trade boundaries with its largest trade partner - England - being damned, then a hard border hardly seems like such a deal-breaking cause for panic, given that many obviously already exist between countries that nonetheless still trade closely.

[brucejoel99]

Also Scotland if they separate wants to rejoin EU which most voted to remain part of, but does EU have any interest in admitting them?  I am thinking Spain might veto their entry, at least they threatened to back in 2014 worried it would embolden Catalan and Basque separatists and much of their success at preventing independence there is promise neither would be EU members if they separated.

I'm not an expert on this by any means, but I suspect the calculus has shifted now that the UK has left the EU altogether, and I think I remember the Sanchez government saying something to this effect. The concern is that Spain or other countries with independence movements might veto entry of states like Scotland which secede to signal to their own secessionist movements that leaving means that they will not be able to rejoin the EU. However, the UK is no longer an EU member state, so obviously that argument no longer applies to Scotland, and in theory this would seem to mean that the situations of Scotland and Catalonia are no longer analogous in this regard.

Tbf, Spain has said that they'd have no problem with allowing Scotland back into the EU so long as Scotland had left the UK in a legally legitimate manner (i.e., with the UK's consent, which still remains an obvious 'must have' for independence).