Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Continential]

Na h-Eileanan an Iar is an SNP hold.

[beesley]

SNP win Clydebank and Milngavie by 5k - their vote share stayed more or less the same but a fair bit of tactical voting for Labour.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When will we get the results?

Coming in slowly now. Orkney held by LDs and Aberdeen Donside held by SNP.

Why is Orkney so hard-core liberal democrat on all levels ? Are the people there just economically conservative but woke ?

[jaichind]

It seems all the SNP holds so far are with a lower vote share. 

[beesley]

When will we get the results?

Coming in slowly now. Orkney held by LDs and Aberdeen Donside held by SNP.

Why is Orkney so hard-core liberal democrat on all levels ? Are the people there just economically conservative but woke ?

Nope - it's mostly an ancestral thing, not ideological. Jo Grimond was the MP and Jim Wallace the MP and MSP and obviously the brand itself is quite strong, and as unionists (and more recently, being pro-EU) the LDs are the default option. Additionally that has been entrenched by an anti-Edinburgh and anti-London feeling. There have been minor rumblings that they want to become a Crown Dependency like the Isle of Man.

It seems all the SNP holds so far are with a lower vote share. 

Yes - but not by enough for a lot of constituencies to fall.

[vileplume]

When will we get the results?

Coming in slowly now. Orkney held by LDs and Aberdeen Donside held by SNP.

Why is Orkney so hard-core liberal democrat on all levels ? Are the people there just economically conservative but woke ?

No lol. Orkney may be many things but it certainly isn't 'woke'. Orkney (and its neighbour Shetland) is part of the 'Celtic Fringe' which used to be the bedrock of support for the Liberal Democrats and the Liberals before them. Its equivalents in the South-West of England (Cornwall) and Wales (Powys) fell away over the last decade, but Orkney has remained solidly Lib Dem. The reason that it hasn't abandoned the party like its counterparts, is that it's pretty unionist and the Lib Dems are the only unionist party with any organisation there whatsoever. Thus they can easily sweep up virtually the entire of the anti-SNP vote, ergo they still win it easily.

[afleitch]

SNP win Clydebank and Milngavie by 5k - their vote share stayed more or less the same but a fair bit of tactical voting for Labour.

If anything it's 'loaned' votes going back to Labour.

[jaichind]

It seems all the SNP holds so far are with a lower vote share. 

Yes - but not by enough for a lot of constituencies to fall.

But if it holds does not this fact have implications on the SNP vote share in the decisive regional vote?

[Continential]

Perthshire North is a hold for the SNP.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When will we get the results?

Coming in slowly now. Orkney held by LDs and Aberdeen Donside held by SNP.

Why is Orkney so hard-core liberal democrat on all levels ? Are the people there just economically conservative but woke ?

Nope - it's mostly an ancestral thing, not ideological. Jo Grimond was the MP and Jim Wallace the MP and MSP and obviously the brand itself is quite strong, and as unionists (and more recently, being pro-EU) the LDs are the default option. Additionally that has been entrenched by an anti-Edinburgh and anti-London feeling. There have been minor rumblings that they want to become a Crown Dependency like the Isle of Man.

It seems all the SNP holds so far are with a lower vote share. 

Yes - but not by enough for a lot of constituencies to fall.

So it's ideologically mostly a normal rural scottish area but due to it's distance feel that the liberal democrats are the better choice ?

[beesley]

So it's ideologically mostly a normal rural scottish area but due to it's distance feel that the liberal democrats are the better choice ?

Not so much distance as remoteness (meaning only the LD put up a fight too).

It seems all the SNP holds so far are with a lower vote share. 

Yes - but not by enough for a lot of constituencies to fall.

But if it holds does not this fact have implications on the SNP vote share in the decisive regional vote?

The regional vote was widely forecast to be lower for the SNP anyway (which would have little effect on the results), so the gap between that and the constituencies may be hard to compare.

[bore]

SNP win Clydebank and Milngavie by 5k - their vote share stayed more or less the same but a fair bit of tactical voting for Labour.

If anything it's 'loaned' votes going back to Labour.

Yeah I think this is the conclusion you can draw from the perthshire north vote and the rumblings around Edinburgh Central- that some centre left unionists were willing to lend a vote to davidson specifically in 2016 to stop the snp (pre brexit among other things) but the parties conduct since then means they are no longer willing to do so.

[vileplume]

SNP win Clydebank and Milngavie by 5k - their vote share stayed more or less the same but a fair bit of tactical voting for Labour.

If anything it's 'loaned' votes going back to Labour.

Yeah I think this is the conclusion you can draw from the perthshire north vote and the rumblings around Edinburgh Central- that some centre left unionists were willing to lend a vote to davidson specifically in 2016 to stop the snp (pre brexit among other things) but the parties conduct since then means they are no longer willing to do so.

This analysis makes no sense. Why on earth would Labour inclined unionists 'tactically' vote for the Tories somewhere like Clydebank when clearly the former has a far, far better chance of beating the SNP? If anything left-leaning unionists voting Tory in Central Belt seat would massively help the SNP.

[Continential]

Dundee City West is a hold for the SNP. The SNP majority increased by 3.8% and Labour fell to 21.5% and had a 4.6% decrease.

[beesley]

Dundee City West is a hold for the SNP. The SNP majority increased by 3.8% and Labour fell to 21.5% and had a 4.6% decrease.

Most pro-independence area of the country - estimated 57% support at the referendum. Still a good result for the SNP.

[bore]

SNP win Clydebank and Milngavie by 5k - their vote share stayed more or less the same but a fair bit of tactical voting for Labour.

If anything it's 'loaned' votes going back to Labour.

Yeah I think this is the conclusion you can draw from the perthshire north vote and the rumblings around Edinburgh Central- that some centre left unionists were willing to lend a vote to davidson specifically in 2016 to stop the snp (pre brexit among other things) but the parties conduct since then means they are no longer willing to do so.

This deduction makes no sense. Why on earth would Labour inclined unionists 'tactically' vote for the Tories somewhere like Clydebank when clearly the former has a far, far better chance of beating the SNP? If anything left-leaning unionists voting Tory in Central Belt seat would massively help the SNP.

I think its a mistake to overstate the savviness of the average voter, the knowledge of which parties are in contention in an area is shaped not by looking at results but by how active a campaign is and what their leaflets are saying, and this will be especially true in a country where the entire political map had been wiped clean 2 years prior.  Tory literature in 2016 (and ever since, tbh) was basically completely devoid of any content other than saying repeatedly only a vote for us is a vote against indyref 2, and its not far fetched that a few low information voters bought that.

[Oryxslayer]

Just turning back in again, the Conservatives have to be dissapointed that Banaffshine and Buchan didn't go their way after that swing have that region voted over the last 5 years of referenda and elections.

[warandwar]

When will we get the results?

Coming in slowly now. Orkney held by LDs and Aberdeen Donside held by SNP.

Why is Orkney so hard-core liberal democrat on all levels ? Are the people there just economically conservative but woke ?

Imagining a woke Orkneyite is really making my day

[vileplume]

SNP win Clydebank and Milngavie by 5k - their vote share stayed more or less the same but a fair bit of tactical voting for Labour.

If anything it's 'loaned' votes going back to Labour.

Yeah I think this is the conclusion you can draw from the perthshire north vote and the rumblings around Edinburgh Central- that some centre left unionists were willing to lend a vote to davidson specifically in 2016 to stop the snp (pre brexit among other things) but the parties conduct since then means they are no longer willing to do so.

This deduction makes no sense. Why on earth would Labour inclined unionists 'tactically' vote for the Tories somewhere like Clydebank when clearly the former has a far, far better chance of beating the SNP? If anything left-leaning unionists voting Tory in Central Belt seat would massively help the SNP.

I think its a mistake to overstate the savviness of the average voter, the knowledge of which parties are in contention in an area is shaped not by looking at results but by how active a campaign is and what their leaflets are saying, and this will be especially true in a country where the entire political map had been wiped clean 2 years prior.  Tory literature in 2016 (and ever since, tbh) was basically completely devoid of any content other than saying repeatedly only a vote for us is a vote against indyref 2, and its not far fetched that a few low information voters bought that.

What you say about the knowledge of the average voter about electoral politics is true. However the Tories seem to have done well in Aberdeen Donside (with Labour doing poorly) where they narrowly squeaked into second in 2016. I would be interested to see results like Cunninghame North which like Donside is a 'traditionally Labour' constituency where the Tories managed second in 2016. If the Tories increase in seats like this and Labour decrease (I'm not saying that this will happen) it will add credibility the 'unionist tactical voting' theory and would rather discredit the 'Labour-Davidson unionists switching back'. We'll have to wait and see for the full picture though.

[afleitch]

SNP hold Banffshire and Buchan Coast .

That seat would have been Tory in 2017 and Tory by a country mile in 2019 so not a bad result there.

[bore]

That's a really poor result for the tories- Banff and Buchan was the only seat they had an absolute majority in 2019

What you say about the knowledge of the average voter about electoral politics is true. However the Tories seem to have done well in Aberdeen Donside (with Labour doing poorly) where they narrowly squeaked into second in 2016. I would be interested to see results like Cunninghame North which like Donside is a 'traditionally Labour' constituency where the Tories managed second in 2016. If the Tories increase in seats like this and Labour decrease (I'm not saying that this will happen) it will add credibility the ' unionist tactical voting' theory and would rather discredit the 'Labour-Davidson unionists switching back'. We'll have to wait and see for the full picture though.

Yeah this is fair enough, every take is provisional at this stage of the results, we'll need to see some more of the central belt to know for sure.

[Continential]

The SNP holds Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley.

[Oryxslayer]

Kilmarnock, a Safe SNP seat reports in and there is little change. What change has happened is slightly shifted towards both unionist parties.

It could be the case that we are seeing the result of those rumors from earlier. Safe SNP seats have lower turnout and then the Unionists slightly gain via turnout. Closer seats have higher turnout and partial consolidation around a unionist opposition.

[vileplume]

That's a really poor result for the tories- Banff and Buchan was the only seat they had an absolute majority in 2019

What you say about the knowledge of the average voter about electoral politics is true. However the Tories seem to have done well in Aberdeen Donside (with Labour doing poorly) where they narrowly squeaked into second in 2016. I would be interested to see results like Cunninghame North which like Donside is a 'traditionally Labour' constituency where the Tories managed second in 2016. If the Tories increase in seats like this and Labour decrease (I'm not saying that this will happen) it will add credibility the ' unionist tactical voting' theory and would rather discredit the 'Labour-Davidson unionists switching back'. We'll have to wait and see for the full picture though.

Yeah this is fair enough, every take is provisional at this stage of the results, we'll need to see some more of the central belt to know for sure.

I wouldn't say Banffshire & Buchan Coast was a 'really poor result' for the Tories. They won Banff & Buchan by less than 10% in 2019 and the more Tory friendly rural parts of that seat are in the Aberdeenshire East Scottish parliamentary seat instead (that will be an interesting constituency when it comes in). It's a bit of a Tory underperformance vis-à-vis 2019 but it's hardly catastrophic.

I also notice Kilmarnock just came in which shows a yet different pattern: SNP down a bit, both Labour and Tory up a tad. There doesn't appear to be an overarching pattern emerging yet.

[beesley]

Not surprised by Banffshire going SNP as they were more pro-independence than some other Conservative areas but still a disappointing result.