Cypriot legislative election, 2021

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Cyprus will be holding legislative elections this Sunday. Cyprus has a presidential system so these elections won't decide who leads the government but they might effect what laws can be passed. Cyprus is facing many issues including COVID obviously, the state of the economy and negotations on the Cyprus problem that appear to be going nowhere as usual - however the campaign seems fairly quiet overall, except for the fact that some opposition parties are attacking the government on the passport scandal and corruption. Some other important things have happened over the last few years, particularly the implementation of the GESY healthcare program.

Polling suggests that DISY's popularity has decreased from its height a few years ago, with the race for first place being relatively close between DISY and AKEL, but with DISY still being favoured. The polls also suggest that the gradual rise of ELAM (the Cypriot branch of Golden Dawn) will continue, with both ELAM and the Greens looking like they could overtake the smallest of the traditional 4 parties, EDEK.

There are also some new parties:
- DIPA (Democratic Front), founded by former DIKO leader and Speaker of the House Marios Garoyian who split from DIKO in 2018.
- Generation Change, a centrist party founded by Anna Theologou, an MP who split from SYPOL in 2019.
- Movement of United Cypriot Hunters, founded in 2018 to represent the interests of hunters.
- Famagusta for Cyprus, a party founded in support of re-unification in response to the deadlocked negotiations and the Turkish decision to begin reopening Varosha.

MPs will be elected by open-list PR in 6 multi-member districts:
Nicosia - 20 seats
Limassol - 12 seats
Famagusta - 11 seats
Larnaca - 6 seats
Pafos - 4 seats
Keryneia - 3 seats
Total - 56 seats

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2016 results:
DISY - 30.7% - 18 seats
AKEL - 25.7% - 16 seats
DIKO - 14.5% - 9 seats
EDEK - 6.2% - 3 seats
SYPOL - 6.0% - 3 seats
KA - 5.2% - 3 seats
KOSP - 4.8% - 2 seats
ELAM - 3.7% - 2 seats

Politico polling average:
DISY - 26%
AKEL - 24%
DIKO - 13%
KOSP - 7%
ELAM - 7%
EDEK - 6%
DIPA - 4%
AG - 4%
KA - 3%

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1399018628461301766

[Keep Calm and ...]

Links to different Exit Polls:
https://www.sigmalive.com/news/politics/vouleftikes2021/791793/deite-ta-exit-poll-olon-ton-kanalion

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Exit polls seem to be more or less as expected.

Final results are coming in here:
http://live.elections.moi.gov.cy/English/PARLIAMENTARY_ELECTIONS_2021/Islandwide

Only a few places have reported so far, but all the results should be through within the next few hours.

[Mike88]

I know it's early, but AKEL seems to be underperforming compared with the exit polls.

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I know it's early, but AKEL seems to be underperforming compared with the exit polls.

This definately seems to be holding up now with most of the votes counted. The 3 biggest parties have lost just over 3% of the vote each, with ELAM, DIPA and many minor parties doing well.

[Mike88]

I know it's early, but AKEL seems to be underperforming compared with the exit polls.

This definately seems to be holding up now with most of the votes counted. The 3 biggest parties have lost just over 3% of the vote each, with ELAM, DIPA and many minor parties doing well.

And it continues, with DISY at around 28% and AKEL stuck at 22%. It's a comfortable victory for DISY, even though they lost a lot of support, and one of the biggest margins between the 1st and 2nd party in recent legislative elections in Cyprus.

Are there overseas votes to be counted as well?

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Are there overseas votes to be counted as well?

Most of the votes from Greece have been counted but none from the UK yet. I don't know if other countries will be submitting a significant number of votes.

[Mike88]

Are there overseas votes to be counted as well?

Most of the votes from Greece have been counted but none from the UK yet. I don't know if other countries will be submitting a significant number of votes.

The overseas votes are counted in a separate "district" or are those votes tallied in any district in the island?

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Are there overseas votes to be counted as well?

Most of the votes from Greece have been counted but none from the UK yet. I don't know if other countries will be submitting a significant number of votes.

The overseas votes are counted in a separate "district" or are those votes tallied in any district in the island?

They're tallied by Cypriot districts rather than having their own overseas district.

[Mike88]

All of the votes have been counted:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1399090999918534664

[mileslunn]

What coalition is most likely?  I assume DISY will head it, but probably has to rely on other smaller right wing, centrist and maybe even centre-left party.  At least AKEL lost as aren't they borderline communist?

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What coalition is most likely?  I assume DISY will head it, but probably has to rely on other smaller right wing, centrist and maybe even centre-left party.  At least AKEL lost as aren't they borderline communist?

Cyprus has a presidential system so the governing coalition would've been DISY led regardless of the result and coalition maths is less important, but DIPA is the most friendly party to DISY of those that got into parliament.

The current government is made up of DISY and independent technocrats - no other parties.

[crals]

What is the ELAM surge about? Frustration towards Turkey?

[PSOL]

What coalition is most likely?  I assume DISY will head it, but probably has to rely on other smaller right wing, centrist and maybe even centre-left party.  At least AKEL lost as aren't they borderline communist?

AKEL from my understanding governed like standard social democrats elsewhere in Europe. They also are the only party to seriously advocate Federalism as a solution to the division of Cyprus, owing to being against the centralized government of the military dictatorship eras and for being the only party at the time to be a home for both Greek and Turkish Cypriots.

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I made a map of the election:





For comparison, here are maps of the 2018 presidential election I made with the same colour scheme (except I changed ELAM from gray to purple):
1st Round
2nd Round

The biggest shift in the map to me, apart from the overall results, is DISY's gains in Pafos district. This is the first election ever where DISY has performed better in Pafos than they've done nationally, their vote share increased by 6.6% there while decreasing by 2.9% overall.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

so why is there a place where ELAM does really well? Any specific reason for it?

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so why is there a place where ELAM does really well? Any specific reason for it?

The best place for ELAM is the village of Politiko, which is the hometown of its leader so I assume there is some personal support for him there. For the other two villages that voted for them this time, no idea why.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What is your opinion of reunification anyway?

[PSOL]

Wait, thumb are you an actual Cypriot?

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What is your opinion of reunification anyway?

I find the whole issue depressing and I don't really know how to solve it. The effects of 1974 are becoming more and more entrenched over time and the settlement of Varosha looks like the final nail in the coffin. Reunification would be good, Greek and Turkish Cypriots have a lot in common and I think are capable of running a stable and peaceful country together, but I don't know how you resolve the property issue - and I couldn't support a reunification plan that doesn't include a fair solution for refugee property.

Wait, thumb are you an actual Cypriot?

I'm British but my parents are Greek Cypriots.