Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Frodo]

To be held on May 6th.

This year the election will carry more significance than it normally would, given that if the Scottish National Party does as well as Nicola Sturgeon anticipates they will (especially in the wake of Brexit), it will pave the way for a second independence referendum.

How well does everyone anticipate the Scottish National Party to do in this year's upcoming election contests to the Scottish Parliament?  Can the SNP at least match their 2011 performance?  

[brucejoel99]

Barring any surprises, the SNP is set to take back a majority this time, yes. Things are certainly looking cautiously optimistic for Scotland. May they hopefully embark on a final push to rid themselves of Westminster once & for all.

[bore]

This should probably be merged into the existing thread (which admittedly had sunk to the third page).

They are indeed scheduled for May 6th, but its not yet certain that that's when they'll happen - the scottish parliament gave itself the power to do that for up to 6 months in november, and may well exercise it, given a couple of months might be all thats needed to run a substantially normal election and campaign as opposed to a postal one. There's not too long to wait though, because they'll have to make a decision by the end of march at the latest.

[bore]

Richard Leonard has resigned as leader of Scottish Labour with immediate effect.

I don't think anyone was expecting this now, especially after he successfully beat back a half hearted coup in September, but you also couldn't say its a massive surprise- Labour's numbers have been consistently dire enough that this was always a possibility from Leonard, who whatever you think of his leadership ability (and the fact that the scottish electorates verdict on him after 3 years is still "Who?" suggests its not great) is a fundamentally decent and unselfish man who wants the party to succeed. There should just be enough time for a permanent leader to be chosen for the campaign, whenever that is. The options aren't great, from the right I'd expect Anas Sarwar will likely run again and probably be the favourite, a few years ago you'd have expected the left candidate to have been Neil Findlay (but he's retiring) or former deputy leader Alex Rowley (who has basically receded from the spotlight after a sex scandal), now I'd expect it might be perennial candidate and Glasgow Councillor Matt Kerr.

There is no reason to expect a sudden reversal in the parties fortune- their problems long predate Leonard and are more fundamental than any leader, especially one who gets the press coverage of a third part, can change by themselves- but it is probably a necessary move, if you can't make people recognise you after three years you're probably not ever going to do so.

[brucejoel99]

Yay, now we get to look forward to somebody taking over from whoever's gonna take over from Leonard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is no reason to expect a sudden reversal in the parties fortune- their problems long predate Leonard and are more fundamental than any leader, especially one who gets the press coverage of a third part, can change by themselves- but it is probably a necessary move, if you can't make people recognise you after three years you're probably not ever going to do so.

Agree. He never struck me as a bad guy at all, but fundamentally he was not cut out for any sort of political leadership - as his failure to become a household name outside his own house demonstrates pretty clearly.* Unfair to blame him for the wider problem(s), but that shouldn't be used as a shield to ward off the obvious: that he was just a bit rubbish, really.

Anyway, back in 2017 he defeated Sarwar 56.7 to 43.3, with the bulk of that margin coming from affiliates - amongst the membership it was 51.8 to 48.2. This reflected the fact that though that contest was branded a Left/Right faction-fight there were other things going on: all of the unions lined up behind Leonard, except for Community (who do not have many members in Scotland). Yes, even USDAW.

As for the successor, we shall see, I guess. Not an easy job and therefore not an attractive one.

_{*Disagree with the argument that 'well that's because SLAB are the third party at Holyrood now'. Nonsense. Means there's less automatic profile, but does not take away significantly from the space to create a profile, as, well, the now former leader of the Scottish Conservatives did prior to the 2016 poll.}

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Anyway, back in 2017 he defeated Sarwar 56.7 to 43.3, with the bulk of that margin coming from affiliates - amongst the membership it was 51.8 to 48.2.

And this was also against one of the worst leadership campaigns I've ever seen - having basically no answer for 'why does your family firm, which you have shares in, not pay a living wage' is probably not ideal in a Labour leadership contest.

I expect we'll elect him or Baillie or someone like that and things will then be crap in a slightly different way.

[Oryxslayer]

Question: Because Scottish Labour is in such a sh**tty position, and its leadership is a poisoned chalice, is there any chance of the national party organizing a proverbial 'Hail Mary?' Essentially, if they no they are going to lose big, and making the likely play would still lead to labour losing by a lot, wouldn't it make sense to gamble? Fastrack someone's career from comparative obscurity and give them a chance to change the trajectory, and if nothing happens, then nothing was lost.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is at least a chance SLab could regain second spot in this year's election, and thus the status of "official" opposition to the SNP. That would be better than nothing.

[Andrea]

he options aren't great, from the right I'd expect Anas Sarwar will likely run again and probably be the favourite, a few years ago you'd have expected the left candidate to have been Neil Findlay (but he's retiring) or former deputy leader Alex Rowley (who has basically receded from the spotlight after a sex scandal), now I'd expect it might be perennial candidate and Glasgow Councillor Matt Kerr.

I believe the rules say that the leadership candidates must be MSPs or MPs (or MEPs but this doesn't apply anymore). This would exclude Kerr.

The timeble is the following

Sunday 17 January, midnight
– Deadline for declarations of interest

Monday 18 January
– Nominations open for Leader

Tuesday 19 January, noon
– Nominations close
– Validly nominated candidates for Leadership to be published
– Scottish Labour hustings period opens
– Supporting nominations open

Wednesday 20 January, 5pm
– Last date for members to pay off arrears in order to participate

Tuesday 26 January
– Supporting nominations close

Tuesday 9 February
– Ballot opens
– Scottish Party hustings period closes

Friday 26 February
– Ballot closes

Saturday 27 February
– Result announcement

Meanwhile, the selection ballot for list ranking is also taking place with voting closing on January 29th. Given the state of SLAB, almost (if not all of them) all seats will come from list section. Therefore, the ranking is crucial. However, they didn't seem to have attracted many applications.
Leader and Deputy Leader are guaranteed the top spot in their regions. So Leonard didn't enter the contest. However, now he's not the leader anymore. It seems they agreed to keep him at the top of Central Scotland list.
I suppose stopping and re-run the ballot to allow him to join would have been just a waste of time.

[afleitch]

There is at least a chance SLab could regain second spot in this year's election, and thus the status of "official" opposition to the SNP. That would be better than nothing.

I think they will.

[Blair]

I might be wrong but that seems like a timetable for a coronation.

[crals]

A Scottish acquainance of mine relinquished his SNP membership due to a certain Joanna Cherry. Is she having any major impact on the SNP?

[GALeftist]

A Scottish acquainance of mine relinquished his SNP membership due to a certain Joanna Cherry. Is she having any major impact on the SNP?

Aged like a fine wine

[Frodo]

From mid-January, so I am surprised no one has posted this yet:

Scottish nationalists set for record majority, boosting independence push

The SNP is expected to win 71 of 129 seats in the Scottish parliament, eight seats more than it won in the last election in 2016, according to the poll carried out by Savanta ComRes and published in The Scotsman newspaper.

The only other time the SNP has won a majority was in 2011 when it won 69 seats under former leader Alex Salmond.

Johnson’s Conservative Party may lose 14 seats in the Scottish parliament and the opposition Labour Party may lose three, the poll found, leaving the Conservatives with 17 seats and the Labour Party with 21.

If you're a unionist, the news is grim. 

[Andrea]

Scottish Labour regional lists rankings were announced on Monday


Central Scotland
(currently 4 Labour list seats)

1. Richard Leonard MSP
2. Monica Lennon MSP
3. Mark Griffin MSP
4. Monique McAdams
5. Chris Costello
6. Michael McPake

Glasgow
(currently 4 Labour list seats)

1. Pauline McNeill MSP
2. Anas Sarwar MSP
3. Paul Sweeney
4. Pam Duncan-Glancy      
5. James Kelly MSP
6. Eva Murray
7. Craig Carson
8. Hollie Cameron
9. Willie Docherty

Highland & Islands
(currently 2 Labour list seats)

1. Rhoda Grant MSP                
2. John Erskine
3. Marion Donaldson
4. Jo Kirby
5. Coilla Drake
6. Lewis Whyte

Lothian
(currently 1 constituency and 2 list seats)

1. Daniel Johnson MSP (Edinburgh South)
2. Sarah Boyack MSP
3. Foysol Choudhury
4. Maddy Kirkman
5. Nick Ward
6. Kirsteen Sullivan
7. Frederick Hessler
8. Stephen Curran

** after the lists were announced, Nick Ward accepted to be moved to 6th as he was actually outpolled by Kirsteen Sullivan but because gender zipping was ranked above her.


Mid Scotland & Fife
(currently 2 list seats)

1. Claire Baker MSP
2. Alex Rowley MSP
3. Julie MacDougall
4. Craig Miller
5. Chris Kane
6. Ryan Smart
7. Ewan Dillon

North East Scotland
(currently 2 list seats)

1. Michael Marra
2. Mercedes Villalba
3. Barry Black
4. Lynn Thomson
5. Richard McCready
6. Georgia Strachan
7. Kaamal Bola
8. Heather Herbert
9. Owen Wright

South Scotland
(currently 1 constituency and 2 list seats)

1. Colin Smyth MSP
2. Carol Mochan
3. Martin Whitfield
4. Claudia Beamish MSP
5. Kevin McGregor

West Scotland
(currently 1 constituency and 3 list seats)

1. Jackie Baillie MSP (Dunbarton)
2. Neil Bibby MSP
3. Katy Clark
4. Paul O’Kane
5. Johanna Baxter
6. Matt Kerr
7. Francesca Brennan
8. Douglas McAllister
9. Katie Pragnell
10. Gurpreet Singh Johal
11. Ed Grady
12. Nairn McDon


Some notes:

- Only in West they have 12 candidates (maximum number of candidates that can appear on the regional lists).
- Gender zipping was adopted.
- In some regions (West and Lothians) women was pushed down from winnable positions becuase of the gender-zipping rule. Johanna Baxter outpolled Paul O'Kane and Maddy Kirkman outpolled Foysol Choudhury. On the other side, in North East and Glasgow female candidates advanced because of the rule.
- Men topping the lists were asked if they wanted to leave the spot to a woman. Anas Sarwar was the only one doing it. Pauline McNeill (who gets the top Glasgow spot) was actually 4th in the membership ballot behind Sarwar, Paul Sweeney and James Kelly.
- 2 MSPs (James Kelly and Claudia Beamish) are more likely to be out of Holyrood after May.
- Monica Lennon was outpolled by Mark Griffin in Central.
- Leader and Deputy Leader are put automatically at the top. Leonard resigned after the ballot started. So he wasn't on the ballot paper. They kept it in the top spot instead of stopping and re-runnng Central selection. In September he wanted women at the top of each regional lists...now he didn't renounce to his top spot in favour of Lennon.

Retiring: Neil Findlay, Mary Fee, Elaine Smith, David Stewart, Iain Gray, Jenny Marra, Lewis McDonald, Ken McIntosh (presiding officer) and Johanna Lamont (I presume since she hasn't entered the list ballot).

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9231007/amp/Alex-Salmond-refuse-appear-sexual-harassment-inquiry.html

"Alex Salmond 'will refuse to appear' at sexual harassment inquiry, claiming allegations that Nicola Sturgeon misled MSPs are being suppressed "

[beesley]

- 2 MSPs (James Kelly and Claudia Beamish) are more likely to be out of Holyrood after May.

=

Slight difference - Kelly still has a small chance in Rutherglen, where he only narrowly lost, whereas Beamish is from the Clydesdale area (Labour were third last time, I believe). But yes, they are more likely than not to be out.

Also, if anyone wants a resource (not connected to me) then http://ballotbox.scot/ should be helpful.

[Andrea]

- 2 MSPs (James Kelly and Claudia Beamish) are more likely to be out of Holyrood after May.

=

Slight difference - Kelly still has a small chance in Rutherglen, where he only narrowly lost, whereas Beamish is from the Clydesdale area (Labour were third last time, I believe). But yes, they are more likely than not to be out.

Narrowly in current SLAB context means being behind 11% in 2016.
But yes, I agree it is one of their best targets. Also because the bad publicity of the local (now ex) SNP Westminster MP.

[Flyersfan232]

From mid-January, so I am surprised no one has posted this yet:

Scottish nationalists set for record majority, boosting independence push

The SNP is expected to win 71 of 129 seats in the Scottish parliament, eight seats more than it won in the last election in 2016, according to the poll carried out by Savanta ComRes and published in The Scotsman newspaper.

The only other time the SNP has won a majority was in 2011 when it won 69 seats under former leader Alex Salmond.

Johnson’s Conservative Party may lose 14 seats in the Scottish parliament and the opposition Labour Party may lose three, the poll found, leaving the Conservatives with 17 seats and the Labour Party with 21.

If you're a unionist, the news is grim. 

whats the good news for unionist?

[Estrella]

From mid-January, so I am surprised no one has posted this yet:

Scottish nationalists set for record majority, boosting independence push

The SNP is expected to win 71 of 129 seats in the Scottish parliament, eight seats more than it won in the last election in 2016, according to the poll carried out by Savanta ComRes and published in The Scotsman newspaper.

The only other time the SNP has won a majority was in 2011 when it won 69 seats under former leader Alex Salmond.

Johnson’s Conservative Party may lose 14 seats in the Scottish parliament and the opposition Labour Party may lose three, the poll found, leaving the Conservatives with 17 seats and the Labour Party with 21.

If you're a unionist, the news is grim. 

whats the good news for unionist?

That they have Boris in Number 10.

That's what some of them would say, that is. Of course, his sort of dumbed-down English nationalist antics are going to be massively counterproductive, but most unionist politicians aren't exactly great strategic thinkers.

[Frodo]

From mid-January, so I am surprised no one has posted this yet:

Scottish nationalists set for record majority, boosting independence push

The SNP is expected to win 71 of 129 seats in the Scottish parliament, eight seats more than it won in the last election in 2016, according to the poll carried out by Savanta ComRes and published in The Scotsman newspaper.

The only other time the SNP has won a majority was in 2011 when it won 69 seats under former leader Alex Salmond.

Johnson’s Conservative Party may lose 14 seats in the Scottish parliament and the opposition Labour Party may lose three, the poll found, leaving the Conservatives with 17 seats and the Labour Party with 21.

If you're a unionist, the news is grim.  

whats the good news for unionist?

The increasingly public civil war going on between SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, and former leader Alex Salmond:





It probably won't make much difference in terms of this upcoming election, but it could be fatal to hopes of Scottish independence.  

[Estrella]

From mid-January, so I am surprised no one has posted this yet:

Scottish nationalists set for record majority, boosting independence push

The SNP is expected to win 71 of 129 seats in the Scottish parliament, eight seats more than it won in the last election in 2016, according to the poll carried out by Savanta ComRes and published in The Scotsman newspaper.

The only other time the SNP has won a majority was in 2011 when it won 69 seats under former leader Alex Salmond.

Johnson’s Conservative Party may lose 14 seats in the Scottish parliament and the opposition Labour Party may lose three, the poll found, leaving the Conservatives with 17 seats and the Labour Party with 21.

If you're a unionist, the news is grim.  

whats the good news for unionist?

The increasingly public civil war going on between SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, and former leader Alex Salmond:





It probably won't make much difference in terms of this upcoming election, but it could be fatal to hopes of Scottish independence.  

Reminds me of Chantal Hébert's book The Morning After.Turns out that on the night Québec was only a couple thousand votes away from voting to separate from Canada, premier Jacques Parizeau and Bloc leader Lucien Bouchard weren't even on speaking terms, in addition to having completely contradictory plans to achieve independence, to the extent they had any plans at all.

I'd support the SNP if I were Scottish, but sadly it wouldn't surprise me to find out that there's this kind of chaos behind the scenes.

[Flyersfan232]

From mid-January, so I am surprised no one has posted this yet:

Scottish nationalists set for record majority, boosting independence push

The SNP is expected to win 71 of 129 seats in the Scottish parliament, eight seats more than it won in the last election in 2016, according to the poll carried out by Savanta ComRes and published in The Scotsman newspaper.

The only other time the SNP has won a majority was in 2011 when it won 69 seats under former leader Alex Salmond.

Johnson’s Conservative Party may lose 14 seats in the Scottish parliament and the opposition Labour Party may lose three, the poll found, leaving the Conservatives with 17 seats and the Labour Party with 21.

If you're a unionist, the news is grim.  

whats the good news for unionist?

The increasingly public civil war going on between SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, and former leader Alex Salmond:





It probably won't make much difference in terms of this upcoming election, but it could be fatal to hopes of Scottish independence.  

Reminds me of Chantal Hébert's book The Morning After.Turns out that on the night Québec was only a couple thousand votes away from voting to separate from Canada, premier Jacques Parizeau and Bloc leader Lucien Bouchard weren't even on speaking terms, in addition to having completely contradictory plans to achieve independence, to the extent they had any plans at all.

I'd support the SNP if I were Scottish, but sadly it wouldn't surprise me to find out that there's this kind of chaos behind the scenes.

i find it funny the two biggest firgure are both named after fish. could the infghting help the scottish greens???

[Frodo]

Reminds me of Chantal Hébert's book The Morning After.Turns out that on the night Québec was only a couple thousand votes away from voting to separate from Canada, premier Jacques Parizeau and Bloc leader Lucien Bouchard weren't even on speaking terms, in addition to having completely contradictory plans to achieve independence, to the extent they had any plans at all.

I'd support the SNP if I were Scottish, but sadly it wouldn't surprise me to find out that there's this kind of chaos behind the scenes.

I personally think Scotland is better off in the longer-term remaining under the aegis of the United Kingdom for primarily economic reasons, even if the arrogance of their English neighbors can be grating at times.