2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Tekken_Guy]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

Actually, Tom Kean might still be able to make that NJ-7 competitive. Without Trump on the ticket I'm wondering if we'll see his State Senate-level overperformances translate to the congressional level. It's probably just wishful thinking though like Hogan in MD-SEN.

[Roll Roons]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

Actually, Tom Kean might still be able to make that NJ-7 competitive. Without Trump on the ticket I'm wondering if we'll see his State Senate-level overperformances translate to the congressional level. It's probably just wishful thinking though like Hogan in MD-SEN.

Unfortunately, Biden +25 is probably a bridge too far even for someone like him in a GOP wave year.

[Tekken_Guy]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

Actually, Tom Kean might still be able to make that NJ-7 competitive. Without Trump on the ticket I'm wondering if we'll see his State Senate-level overperformances translate to the congressional level. It's probably just wishful thinking though like Hogan in MD-SEN.

Biden +25 is probably a bridge too far even for someone like him in a GOP wave year.

Menendez only carried it by 13, and Murphy '17 by just 11. Kean might be able to make it a single digit race. He could essentially be to the House what Larry Hogan would be to the Senate. Both would be traps for Democrats to light money on fire rather than actual attempts to win the seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A Biden+25 seat may as well be Safe D, no matter how good the R candidate is.
Biden+10 would be a different story.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

Actually, Tom Kean might still be able to make that NJ-7 competitive. Without Trump on the ticket I'm wondering if we'll see his State Senate-level overperformances translate to the congressional level. It's probably just wishful thinking though like Hogan in MD-SEN.

Unfortunately, Biden +25 is probably a bridge too far even for someone like him in a GOP wave year.

Yeah a lot of state legislators tend to have massive overperformances on the state legislative level because:

-State legislative elections tend to be less polarizing than congressional elections
-A congressional district is far bigger than a state legislative district
-There's just more variables to worry about for congressional campaigns

It's not impossible ig, but if Dems are losing a Biden + 25 seat anywhere in the nation, they are having a disaster nationally. I'd say Biden + 15 sort of is the cutoff for a realistic chance of an R winning a seat in 2022. Maybe Biden + 20 but that's pushing. In 2018 outside MN-7, the most Pro-Trump district Ds were able to win was NY-22 where Brindisi narrowly flipped the Trump + 15 district. Even flips like SC-01, OK-05 and NY-11 (all ~ Trump + 10 in 2016) were considered surprises and flukes

[Tekken_Guy]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

Sure:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31c650fe-999a-4943-abb7-e2d31847a651

Overall it's pretty simillar to the current map in terms of net partisanship, at least on 2020 numbers, just the seats are re-arranged a bit. Kinda interesting how a true R-Pack in NW Jersey can't really happen under today's politics whereas just a decade ago Rs were able to squeeze 3 seats out of the region.

A map like that puts a lot of pressure on Kean. He can either run in the 7th and have an easy path to congress. Or Republicans could push him to run for the 11th instead and turning an otherwise tough race into a toss-up.

The 7th is likely to go Republican with or without Kean. The 11th on the other hand becomes a lot easier to win with him.

I also don't think Pascrell is going to want to lose Paterson, and Sherrill would probably want to keep Montclair.

One person who's definitely not going to be happy with this map is Frank Pallone: it makes his seat a lot more competitive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

Sure:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31c650fe-999a-4943-abb7-e2d31847a651

Overall it's pretty simillar to the current map in terms of net partisanship, at least on 2020 numbers, just the seats are re-arranged a bit. Kinda interesting how a true R-Pack in NW Jersey can't really happen under today's politics whereas just a decade ago Rs were able to squeeze 3 seats out of the region.

A map like that puts a lot of pressure on Kean. He can either run in the 7th and have an easy path to congress. Or Republicans could push him to run for the 11th instead and turning an otherwise tough race into a toss-up.

The 7th is likely to go Republican with or without Kean. The 11th on the other hand becomes a lot easier to win with him.

I also don't think Pascrell is going to want to lose Paterson, and Sherrill would probably want to keep Montclair.

One person who's definitely not going to be happy with this map is Frank Pallone: it makes his seat a lot more competitive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c4e6c7d4-9f8d-4e57-b85f-ae77abe5c5a3
I drew this map with Tom Kean in mind. It has all the major areas in his state legislative district in the 7th. Biden won this seat by 6.4 but Kean could make it competitive. If the district had these borders in 2020, he'd likely have beat Malinowski; Biden won the current NJ-07 by 9.9 points.

[Tekken_Guy]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

Sure:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31c650fe-999a-4943-abb7-e2d31847a651

Overall it's pretty simillar to the current map in terms of net partisanship, at least on 2020 numbers, just the seats are re-arranged a bit. Kinda interesting how a true R-Pack in NW Jersey can't really happen under today's politics whereas just a decade ago Rs were able to squeeze 3 seats out of the region.

A map like that puts a lot of pressure on Kean. He can either run in the 7th and have an easy path to congress. Or Republicans could push him to run for the 11th instead and turning an otherwise tough race into a toss-up.

The 7th is likely to go Republican with or without Kean. The 11th on the other hand becomes a lot easier to win with him.

I also don't think Pascrell is going to want to lose Paterson, and Sherrill would probably want to keep Montclair.

One person who's definitely not going to be happy with this map is Frank Pallone: it makes his seat a lot more competitive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c4e6c7d4-9f8d-4e57-b85f-ae77abe5c5a3
I drew this map with Tom Kean in mind. It has all the major areas in his state legislative district in the 7th. Biden won this seat by 6.4 but Kean could make it competitive. If the district had these borders in 2020, he'd likely have beat Malinowski; Biden won the current NJ-07 by 9.9 points.

Here would probably be my ratings for this map

NJ-01: Safe D
NJ-02: Likely R
NJ-03: Lean D
NJ-04: Likely R
NJ-05: Safe D
NJ-06: Likely D
NJ-07: Tossup
NJ-08: Safe D
NJ-09: Safe D
NJ-10: Safe D
NJ-11: Lean R
NJ-12: Safe D

[Tekken_Guy]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

Sure:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31c650fe-999a-4943-abb7-e2d31847a651

Overall it's pretty simillar to the current map in terms of net partisanship, at least on 2020 numbers, just the seats are re-arranged a bit. Kinda interesting how a true R-Pack in NW Jersey can't really happen under today's politics whereas just a decade ago Rs were able to squeeze 3 seats out of the region.

A map like that puts a lot of pressure on Kean. He can either run in the 7th and have an easy path to congress. Or Republicans could push him to run for the 11th instead and turning an otherwise tough race into a toss-up.

The 7th is likely to go Republican with or without Kean. The 11th on the other hand becomes a lot easier to win with him.

I also don't think Pascrell is going to want to lose Paterson, and Sherrill would probably want to keep Montclair.

One person who's definitely not going to be happy with this map is Frank Pallone: it makes his seat a lot more competitive.

My hypothetical ratings for this map

NJ-01: Safe D
NJ-02: Safe D
NJ-03: Likely R
NJ-04: Safe R
NJ-05: Safe D
NJ-06: Likely D
NJ-07: Lean R w/o Kean, Likely R with him
NJ-08: Safe D
NJ-09: Safe D
NJ-10: Safe D
NJ-11: Likely D w/o Kean, Lean D with him
NJ-12: Safe D

[CookieDamage]

2020 results by leg district

As of 2022 there will be 5 Biden seats held by a GOP state senator

Districts 2, 8, 21, 25, and 39.

District 16 was like Biden 60-38 and it flipped to the Dems this year.

[Roll Roons]

2020 results by leg district

As of 2022 there will be 5 Biden seats held by a GOP state senator

Districts 2, 8, 21, 25, and 39.

All of those districts also have all-Republican assembly delegations. LD-11 was also won by Biden and will have two Republican assemblywomen, though its Senator is a Democrat. It’ll also be the only district with split representation.

I feel like NJ Republicans really do punch above their weight in terms of winning territory that should be unfavorable.

[CookieDamage]

2020 results by leg district

As of 2022 there will be 5 Biden seats held by a GOP state senator

Districts 2, 8, 21, 25, and 39.

All of those districts also have all-Republican assembly delegations. LD-11 was also won by Biden and will have two Republican assemblywomen, though its Senator is a Democrat. It’ll also be the only district with split representation.

I feel like NJ Republicans really do punch above their weight in terms of winning territory that should be unfavorable.

Yes, Vin Gopal hung on. LD-11 was like Biden +11.3, which isn't a massive landslide but Murphy/Gopal's underperformance was very significant.

[CookieDamage]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

[CookieDamage]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

Where does Jon Bramnick go now that Westfield is in a Biden+29 seat (SD-28)? Does he just carpetbag into that SD-24?

Is Holly Schepisi still capable of winning a Biden+18 SD-36?

[CookieDamage]

Did a Dem gerrymander of the assembly.



Biden wins 32 seats vs Trump's 8.

LD1 D:56- R:42
LD2 55-43
LD3 56-42
LD7 59-39

These are some South Jersey seats that can flip back to Dems in a good year, but the above margins not actually be enough in a few years time due to continued dem slippage in South Jersey.

LD12 is Gopal's district and it went Biden 57-41, which I think will be enough to get Gopal, Downey, and Houghtaling past the finish line.

LD30 is only Biden +8 so it probably stays in GOP hands in 2021.

All in all probably shakes out to 31-9 or 30-10.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/84ae59f4-ea03-4cf6-88e1-b2824fb9ffbe

[CookieDamage]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

Where does Jon Bramnick go now that Westfield is in a Biden+29 seat (SD-28)? Does he just carpetbag into that SD-24?

Is Holly Schepisi still capable of winning a Biden+18 SD-36?

I doubt a GOP candidate would win anything more than Biden +15. Under Biden +15 it will be possible.

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

Where does Jon Bramnick go now that Westfield is in a Biden+29 seat (SD-28)? Does he just carpetbag into that SD-24?

Is Holly Schepisi still capable of winning a Biden+18 SD-36?

I doubt a GOP candidate would win anything more than Biden +15. Under Biden +15 it will be possible.

Biden+15 may be the threshold for Safe D in congress but it's probably way higher in the NJ Assembly. The current LD-21 is around Biden+18 and Bramnick won it by 7 points. So it's probably a Toss-up/Lean D on the state legislative level.

LD-24 would be an open seat though. No incumbent legislators live in it currently. Here are some suggestions for the GOP barring the LD-21 delegation carpetbagging:
-Kip Bateman and Mike Pappas are both from Branchburg, and I could see either going for a comeback here.-
-Joe Lukac, an unsuccessful assembly candidate, is from Manville, so he can try again.
-This year's Somerset County Commissioners' slate of Michael Kirsh and Amber Murad are both from here too and both only narrowly lost. Kirsh is from Bridgewater and Murad from Watchung.
-From the Morris County side, Commissioner John Krickus of Washington Township (Long Valley) seems to be the only countywide officeholder in the district.

[CookieDamage]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

Where does Jon Bramnick go now that Westfield is in a Biden+29 seat (SD-28)? Does he just carpetbag into that SD-24?

Is Holly Schepisi still capable of winning a Biden+18 SD-36?

I doubt a GOP candidate would win anything more than Biden +15. Under Biden +15 it will be possible.

Biden+15 may be the threshold for Safe D in congress but it's probably way higher in the NJ Assembly. The current LD-21 is around Biden+18 and Bramnick won it by 7 points. So it's probably a Toss-up/Lean D on the state legislative level.

LD-24 would be an open seat though. No incumbent legislators live in it currently. Here are some suggestions for the GOP barring the LD-21 delegation carpetbagging:
-Kip Bateman and Mike Pappas are both from Branchburg, and I could see either going for a comeback here.-
-Joe Lukac, an unsuccessful assembly candidate, is from Manville, so he can try again.
-This year's Somerset County Commissioners' slate of Michael Kirsh and Amber Murad are both from here too and both only narrowly lost. Kirsh is from Bridgewater and Murad from Watchung.
-From the Morris County side, Commissioner John Krickus of Washington Township (Long Valley) seems to be the only countywide officeholder in the district.

I feel like the reason the GOP did so well in Biden areas this year was because of

1.) Biden's current unpopularity
2.) Ciatarelli's overperformance and Murphy kinda ignoring the race
3.) Suburban reversion

The next NJ Leg election might not see such factors come into play. Biden may be more or less popular, there won't be a gubernatorial race, and who knows how the suburbs trend.

While Bramnick won a Biden +18 seat by 7 points, Vin Gopal won a Biden +11 seat, so it's not a uniform swing against Dems. Meanwhile, Jean Stanfield barely won in a Biden +8 district. I think incumbency and various regional trends had more of an impact than solely Biden's numbers. I think Biden +15-20 is a relatively decent cut off. Sure, some GOP candidates may pick up Biden +17 seats, but some Dems may hold or pick up Biden +8-11 seats as well.

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

Where does Jon Bramnick go now that Westfield is in a Biden+29 seat (SD-28)? Does he just carpetbag into that SD-24?

Is Holly Schepisi still capable of winning a Biden+18 SD-36?

I doubt a GOP candidate would win anything more than Biden +15. Under Biden +15 it will be possible.

Biden+15 may be the threshold for Safe D in congress but it's probably way higher in the NJ Assembly. The current LD-21 is around Biden+18 and Bramnick won it by 7 points. So it's probably a Toss-up/Lean D on the state legislative level.

LD-24 would be an open seat though. No incumbent legislators live in it currently. Here are some suggestions for the GOP barring the LD-21 delegation carpetbagging:
-Kip Bateman and Mike Pappas are both from Branchburg, and I could see either going for a comeback here.-
-Joe Lukac, an unsuccessful assembly candidate, is from Manville, so he can try again.
-This year's Somerset County Commissioners' slate of Michael Kirsh and Amber Murad are both from here too and both only narrowly lost. Kirsh is from Bridgewater and Murad from Watchung.
-From the Morris County side, Commissioner John Krickus of Washington Township (Long Valley) seems to be the only countywide officeholder in the district.

I feel like the reason the GOP did so well in Biden areas this year was because of

1.) Biden's current unpopularity
2.) Ciatarelli's overperformance and Murphy kinda ignoring the race
3.) Suburban reversion

The next NJ Leg election might not see such factors come into play. Biden may be more or less popular, there won't be a gubernatorial race, and who knows how the suburbs trend.

While Bramnick won a Biden +18 seat by 7 points, Vin Gopal won a Biden +11 seat, so it's not a uniform swing against Dems. Meanwhile, Jean Stanfield barely won in a Biden +8 district. I think incumbency and various regional trends had more of an impact than solely Biden's numbers. I think Biden +15-20 is a relatively decent cut off. Sure, some GOP candidates may pick up Biden +17 seats, but some Dems may hold or pick up Biden +8-11 seats as well.

Can we at least consider them swing seats for now?

[CookieDamage]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

Where does Jon Bramnick go now that Westfield is in a Biden+29 seat (SD-28)? Does he just carpetbag into that SD-24?

Is Holly Schepisi still capable of winning a Biden+18 SD-36?

I doubt a GOP candidate would win anything more than Biden +15. Under Biden +15 it will be possible.

Biden+15 may be the threshold for Safe D in congress but it's probably way higher in the NJ Assembly. The current LD-21 is around Biden+18 and Bramnick won it by 7 points. So it's probably a Toss-up/Lean D on the state legislative level.

LD-24 would be an open seat though. No incumbent legislators live in it currently. Here are some suggestions for the GOP barring the LD-21 delegation carpetbagging:
-Kip Bateman and Mike Pappas are both from Branchburg, and I could see either going for a comeback here.-
-Joe Lukac, an unsuccessful assembly candidate, is from Manville, so he can try again.
-This year's Somerset County Commissioners' slate of Michael Kirsh and Amber Murad are both from here too and both only narrowly lost. Kirsh is from Bridgewater and Murad from Watchung.
-From the Morris County side, Commissioner John Krickus of Washington Township (Long Valley) seems to be the only countywide officeholder in the district.

I feel like the reason the GOP did so well in Biden areas this year was because of

1.) Biden's current unpopularity
2.) Ciatarelli's overperformance and Murphy kinda ignoring the race
3.) Suburban reversion

The next NJ Leg election might not see such factors come into play. Biden may be more or less popular, there won't be a gubernatorial race, and who knows how the suburbs trend.

While Bramnick won a Biden +18 seat by 7 points, Vin Gopal won a Biden +11 seat, so it's not a uniform swing against Dems. Meanwhile, Jean Stanfield barely won in a Biden +8 district. I think incumbency and various regional trends had more of an impact than solely Biden's numbers. I think Biden +15-20 is a relatively decent cut off. Sure, some GOP candidates may pick up Biden +17 seats, but some Dems may hold or pick up Biden +8-11 seats as well.

Can we at least consider them swing seats for now?

Yes, they're certainly battlegrounds for sure

[Nyvin]

I guess I wanted to see how hard an 11-1 map is to make.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/13df5dd4-bbc8-44c5-b3be-b844f9af6b45

It has the respective VRA seats and everything is at least 55% Biden except 4 and 6.  NJ-4 is the R sink and NJ-6 is 54.5% Biden.

The only municipality splits are in 8 and 10 (VRA seats).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess I wanted to see how hard an 11-1 map is to make.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/13df5dd4-bbc8-44c5-b3be-b844f9af6b45

It has the respective VRA seats and everything is at least 55% Biden except 4 and 6.  NJ-4 is the R sink and NJ-6 is 54.5% Biden.

The only municipality splits are in 8 and 10 (VRA seats).

Seats bias   0.41%   Half the difference in seats at 50% vote share
Votes bias   0.06%   The excess votes required for half the seats
Declination   -35.14°   A geometric measure of packing & cracking
Global symmetry   0.72%   The overall symmetry of the seats-votes curve
Gamma   -26.31%   The fair difference in seats at the map-wide vote share
Efficiency gap   -22.44%   The relative two-party difference in wasted votes
Partisan bias   -2.26%   The difference in seats between the map-wide vote share and the symmetrical counterfactual share
Proportional   -30.51%   The simple deviation from proportionality using fractional seat shares
Mean–median   1.42%   The average vote share across all districts minus the median vote share
Turnout bias   -1.21%   The difference between the map-wide vote share and the average district share
Lopsided outcomes   4.65%   The relative two-party difference in excess vote shares
Proportional seats   6.97   The fractional Democratic seats for the map-wide vote share
Geographic seats   9.49   The fractional Democratic seats implied by county political geography
Geographic bias   -21.04%   The bias due to county political geography
Map seats   10.63   The fractional Democratic seats for the map
Boundary bias   -9.47%   The bias due to district lines

Lol. Good job.

[Pollster]

That is one phenomenal gerrymander. Even went 11-1 for Menendez. Will be curious to see what the Murphy 2021 numbers look like.