2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Brittain33]

It's starting

https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/media/mp.asp?M=A/ENCODER-4&S=2020L

Audio-only for me

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473681823611990019?s=20

[Meatball Ron]

This is the right move. Sherill, Gottheimer, and (especially) Kim were way too exposed in a GOP friendly environment. And besides, the new NJ-07, while likely unwinnable for the tainted Malinowski this year, remains a close and left-trending seat that Dems can likely win back later in the decade. 9D-1C-2R is a great outcome considering where we were pre-2018.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473682096749260804

Jesus Herbert Walker Christ.

[Brittain33]

This Steinhardt guy has the thickest NJ accent so far.

[Brittain33]

I'm looking forward to the 2040 redistricting when the 4th district is just Lakewood and the immediately adjacent towns.

[Nyvin]

Looks like a 9-2-1 map, not 9-3

[wbrocks67]

Looks like a 9-2-1 map, not 9-3

yeah dont know why people are considering the Biden +4 district a GOP district.

[Oryxslayer]

Note that Chris Smith is outside of his seat, though that seemed inevitable given the geography.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like a 9-2-1 map, not 9-3

yeah dont know why people are considering the Biden +4 district a GOP district.

In 2022 it is.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1473685907920273409?s=20

[Devils30]

Looks like a 9-2-1 map, not 9-3

yeah dont know why people are considering the Biden +4 district a GOP district.

In 2022 it is.

Kean will win in 2022, assuming he wins the primary. I don’t think this is a lock considering the new territory that he’ll need to appeal to. If a far right R somehow won then we’d have a tossup.  

7 is the most Dem trending part of the state. Not hard seeing it become 10-2 by 2024-28. If Trump was still President, Malinowski is favored in 2022 vs Kean.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What's the numbers on Sherill Kim and Gottheimer

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's the numbers on Sherill Kim and Gottheimer

Both seem around Biden + 15 but Gotthemeir seems slightly closer

NJ-7 still being a Biden district while keeping all other north Jersey districts relatively safe for Dems is a win in my book, though I’m not a huge fan of the map from COI perspective

[Oryxslayer]

What's the numbers on Sherill Kim and Gottheimer

Sherill is the Big winner here getting a seat that is almost Biden+20.

Kim and Gottheimer are around Biden+12/13.

Pascrell and Pallone are still around Biden+20 and majority minority coalition.

Van Drew's seat is only Trump+5, not huge improvement from previously.

And Malinowski is in a Biden+4 seat as marketed.

[Torie]

Tie breaker Wallace's rationale for picking the Dem map? The Pub map was picked last time. That's it. Nothing more. Not sure why Wallace bothered to show up at the hearings. His mind was made up from day one. He gave the Dems his proxy vote.

The failure to publish the two competing maps, and invite comment, was a sad fail. This commission was the antithesis of transparency in all things. At least the MI commission, when it did its Dem gerrymander to offset the Dem's geographic disadvantage and embrace the efficiency gap metric as the statistical loadstar for what not "unduly" favoring one party means, was transparent. This gang seems to no redeeming merit whatsoever.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473688735216713728?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Tie breaker Wallace's rationale for picking the Dem map? The Pub map was picked last time. That's it. Nothing more. Not sure why Wallace bothered to show up at the hearings. His mind was made up from day one. He gave the Dems his proxy vote.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473683787968036866?s=20

On one level this is a total L O L, on another though it shows that the D Courts and Murphy were the indirect arbiters of the outcome - just like Christie was in 2011. The NJ system is horrible, but it is working as designed.

[Meatball Ron]

What's the numbers on Sherill Kim and Gottheimer

Sherill: Biden +7 --> Biden +17
Kim: Trump +0.2 --> Biden +14
Gottheimer: Biden +5 --> Biden +12

Malinowski: Biden +10 --> Biden +4
Van Drew: Trump +3 --> Trump +5

So sweet

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473688735216713728?s=20

Sherrill seems to be in the “could be interesting in a really bad wave” category, a la Bill Foster, Raja Krishnamoorthi, or Ed Perlmutter.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473688735216713728?s=20

Sherrill seems to be in the “could be interesting in a really bad wave” category, a la Bill Foster, Raja Krishnamoorthi, or Ed Perlmutter.

Could they all be single digit races?  Sure.

[sting in the rafters]

Splitting Ocean is irritating but suppose it's easier to cut the losses with JVD's district now as opposed to later.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473688735216713728?s=20

Sherrill seems to be in the “could be interesting in a really bad wave” category, a la Bill Foster, Raja Krishnamoorthi, or Ed Perlmutter.

Could they all be single digit races?  Sure.

I don’t expect any of them to lose but maybe Republicans will run credible campaigns here.

[Torie]

Tie breaker Wallace's rationale for picking the Dem map? The Pub map was picked last time. That's it. Nothing more. Not sure why Wallace bothered to show up at the hearings. His mind was made up from day one. He gave the Dems his proxy vote.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473683787968036866?s=20
On one level this is a total L O L, on another though it shows that the D Courts and Murphy were the indirect arbiters of the outcome - just like Christie was in 2011. The NJ system is horrible, but it is working as designed.

Since the NJ Supreme Court picked Wallace (biased, and apparently close to non compos mentis to boot), it shows that partisan courts are far too often packed with political hacks who don't give a damn about their oath of office to be impartial and not be partisan hacks. Impeach and convict and remove them all.

[Pollster]

Would be phenomenal if somebody could get their hands on a DRA link - curious to see how Menendez '18 performed on this map.

Malinowski can probably keep his loss to Kean respectable here. Kean will probably have to cut out a Fitzpatrick/Katko-type profile to survive here long-term. Gottheimer should probably hope that NJ progressives remain as incompetent and poorly organized as they are. Van Drew can still be threatened in a particularly poor year for Republicans and these lines probably continue to keep him willing to cross party lines on some things as he did with the infrastructure bill.

Overall a map that likely sheds Dems but requires the requisite Republicans to moderate in some way - not a bad result for the party.