2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Tekken_Guy]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

He’s probably begging Bonnie Watson Coleman to retire at this point so he can take her seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

[Tekken_Guy]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

This should be enough for incumbents in a federal race. 

Wasn’t enough for TJ Cox or Gil Cisneros in 2020. Or for Steve Russell or Claudia Tenney in 2018.

[Tekken_Guy]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

This should be enough for incumbents in a federal race. 

Wasn’t enough for TJ Cox or Gil Cisneros in 2020. Or for Steve Russell or Claudia Tenney in 2018.

All pretty weak incumbents. 

Malinowski was very weak too. And Sherrill and Gottheimer did rather unspectacularly against nobodies.

[Tekken_Guy]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

Difference is that these districts are not trending R the way OK-05 and SC-01 were trending D.

Well, NM-02, NY-11, and NY-22 are probably better examples here.

[Tekken_Guy]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

That's going to be very hard to do. The 7th is going to have to be a double-digit Trump seat, which means it can't have that tail into Westfield for Kean that Wasserman is proposing, and probably stay out of Somerset for the most part. The 8th, 9th, 10th, and 12th are going to all have to be heavily unpacked.

Unlike IL, where there are some safe D suburban seats that existed beforehand, all of the Safe D districts in North Jersey are heavily urbanized. If NJ-10 wants to keep being  the "black" district or NJ-8.the "hispanic" one, there's not a lot of places it can afford to drop. A retirement from an older member of the delegation, like Pascrell, Pallone, or Watson Coleman, would just allow NJ to cut that district and make it easier to retain all their incumbents.

[Tekken_Guy]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

Obviously none of the more marginal D seats in a 9-3 would be the 218th seat, but they might be seats 235-250, definite possibilities in 2022.

Incumbency isn't a huge advantage anymore, but NJ Republicans are moderate, can reflect their districts well, and build popularity. Once they get in, they might be hard to get out. Frelinghuysen and MacArthur might still be there if they didn't retire, for example, despite Biden winning their districts.

My point is that even though none of these seats would decide the balance of power in the House in 2022, it would be unwise to let moderate Rs become established in those districts, because in 2024 perhaps they could outperform the top of the ticket and potentially decide the House.

I mean...sure...but what's the point?   Texas R's can't draw every incumbent a Trump+25 seat or something, so they settle for what they can.   Same goes for NJ.

You can't draw solid D/R seats everywhere for every incumbent and make sure it's "SAFE NO MATTER WHAT!!".  They can't prepare for utter catastrophes.

Also, you say incumbency doesn't matter as much anymore and then go on to explain how the new R's could become entrenched incumbents....?

The difference between Texas and NJ is that Texas can sacrifice the swing seats they already lost to shore up the ones they still have, and there are several 70%+ R seats to unpack as well. NJ has only three solid D seats in the north part of the state, two of which are minority opportunity seats and all of which are very urban in character. And also only 2 Republican seats to turn into sinks.

[Tekken_Guy]

It won't be 10-2 in a year like 2021 but that isn't the point. Dems need as many winnable seats as possible in a D+0 type of election.

NJ-7 also barely swung at all from 2017-21 while the rest of the state swung sharply right. Not sure Malinowski is the one to throw under.

There are a lot of factors working against Malinowski. He was the worst performing of the four swing district Dems in the state, even though his district was Biden’s best of the four. His opponent is the outgoing Senate Minority Leader who’s a household name in his state and sits in a very Democratic State Senate district. He lives in a very Republican part of his district, which is not the case for the other Democrats in the delegation. And, he is being investigated for ethic issues.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

5, 6, and 11 are more Likely D than Safe D IMO. At least in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

But you left him with no district at all. Norcross is in the Camden district and Watson Coleman is in the Trenton district.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

From a fairness perspective, perhaps, but the Democrats aren't going to accept eliminating Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski.

This is completely predicated on Watson Coleman retiring as I said in the initial post. It’s a dumb map if she’s not, but from what I’ve read she is expected to. Then Kim gets to occupy the safe 12th. The idea of the map is that every incumbent who plans to run in 2022 bar Malinowski gets a safe seat.

If Watson Coleman retires then Malinowski is probably going to get her seat rather than Kim, who can easily take in more parts of Camden instead.

[Tekken_Guy]

If BWC does not retire in 2022, I wonder if she'd be generous enough to take in some rurals in Hunterdon/Warren/Sussex that would otherwise be in the "Kean sink" and allow Malinowski's seat to take in more of Somerset and Union. That would allow Dems a fighting chance at holding on the seat (or at the very least, flipping it back in '24 or '26 after losing it in '22). Her current district is like Biden+40 so she can afford to move way to the right.

As for Mikie Sherrill, she's probably going to want all of Montclair, West Orange, South Orange, Maplewood, Livingston, Millburn, Summit, Madison, Morristown, and Dover in her seat.

Gottheimer just needs to take in more of Pascrell's territory around Englewood and shed all the non-Bergen parts.

If Kim can't get Mercer or Camden, he could scoop in and get Dem-leaning parts of Atlantic and Cumberland currently in Van Drew's seat. He probably can't get AC though as that would make NJ-02 non-contiguous, but he could at least stretch into Pleasantville.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

2, 3, and 7 are the main battlegrounds here, but if the wealthy suburbs really snap back to the GOP then 11 may come back into play (Menendez only won it by 4 points). 6 and 9 also seem right off the edge of the playing field in this map

Likewise, in a good year for Democrats they might make a play at 4.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

2, 3, and 7 are the main battlegrounds here, but if the wealthy suburbs really snap back to the GOP then 11 may come back into play (Menendez only won it by 4 points). 6 and 9 also seem right off the edge of the playing field in this map

Likewise, in a good year for Democrats they might make a play at 4.

I don't think NJ-04 is ever going to go Democrat. Smith is a very popular incumbent. He won by 12 even in 2018 and outperformed Trump by 11. Given that NJ-04 is probably going to get even redder, there's no way Smith loses even in the biggest Blue wave ever.

It’s probably safe with Smith, but when he retires and it’s a blue wave environment, it might be competitive — at least the one you drew.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

I’d argue pretty much no matter what Van Drew’s seat will be drawn to be swingy; ceding bluer Philly burbs means taking in Atlantic City. Deep South Jersey also just lacks extreme political geography.

Van Drew already has Atlantic City in his seat. He can, however, get a lot more of Ocean in his seat than he has now.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

I’d argue pretty much no matter what Van Drew’s seat will be drawn to be swingy; ceding bluer Philly burbs means taking in Atlantic City. Deep South Jersey also just lacks extreme political geography.

Van Drew already has Atlantic City in his seat. He can, however, get a lot more of Ocean in his seat than he has now.

Certainly possible that he could cede all but the precincts along the coast to Kim.

I'm not sure if mapmakers are willing to split the city here. And he can't just drop it altogether as that would make the district non-continuous. At the very least he might be willing to give up Pleasantville.

[Tekken_Guy]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

[Tekken_Guy]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

Actually, Tom Kean might still be able to make that NJ-7 competitive. Without Trump on the ticket I'm wondering if we'll see his State Senate-level overperformances translate to the congressional level. It's probably just wishful thinking though like Hogan in MD-SEN.

[Tekken_Guy]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

Actually, Tom Kean might still be able to make that NJ-7 competitive. Without Trump on the ticket I'm wondering if we'll see his State Senate-level overperformances translate to the congressional level. It's probably just wishful thinking though like Hogan in MD-SEN.

Biden +25 is probably a bridge too far even for someone like him in a GOP wave year.

Menendez only carried it by 13, and Murphy '17 by just 11. Kean might be able to make it a single digit race. He could essentially be to the House what Larry Hogan would be to the Senate. Both would be traps for Democrats to light money on fire rather than actual attempts to win the seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

Sure:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31c650fe-999a-4943-abb7-e2d31847a651

Overall it's pretty simillar to the current map in terms of net partisanship, at least on 2020 numbers, just the seats are re-arranged a bit. Kinda interesting how a true R-Pack in NW Jersey can't really happen under today's politics whereas just a decade ago Rs were able to squeeze 3 seats out of the region.

A map like that puts a lot of pressure on Kean. He can either run in the 7th and have an easy path to congress. Or Republicans could push him to run for the 11th instead and turning an otherwise tough race into a toss-up.

The 7th is likely to go Republican with or without Kean. The 11th on the other hand becomes a lot easier to win with him.

I also don't think Pascrell is going to want to lose Paterson, and Sherrill would probably want to keep Montclair.

One person who's definitely not going to be happy with this map is Frank Pallone: it makes his seat a lot more competitive.

[Tekken_Guy]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

Sure:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31c650fe-999a-4943-abb7-e2d31847a651

Overall it's pretty simillar to the current map in terms of net partisanship, at least on 2020 numbers, just the seats are re-arranged a bit. Kinda interesting how a true R-Pack in NW Jersey can't really happen under today's politics whereas just a decade ago Rs were able to squeeze 3 seats out of the region.

A map like that puts a lot of pressure on Kean. He can either run in the 7th and have an easy path to congress. Or Republicans could push him to run for the 11th instead and turning an otherwise tough race into a toss-up.

The 7th is likely to go Republican with or without Kean. The 11th on the other hand becomes a lot easier to win with him.

I also don't think Pascrell is going to want to lose Paterson, and Sherrill would probably want to keep Montclair.

One person who's definitely not going to be happy with this map is Frank Pallone: it makes his seat a lot more competitive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c4e6c7d4-9f8d-4e57-b85f-ae77abe5c5a3
I drew this map with Tom Kean in mind. It has all the major areas in his state legislative district in the 7th. Biden won this seat by 6.4 but Kean could make it competitive. If the district had these borders in 2020, he'd likely have beat Malinowski; Biden won the current NJ-07 by 9.9 points.

Here would probably be my ratings for this map

NJ-01: Safe D
NJ-02: Likely R
NJ-03: Lean D
NJ-04: Likely R
NJ-05: Safe D
NJ-06: Likely D
NJ-07: Tossup
NJ-08: Safe D
NJ-09: Safe D
NJ-10: Safe D
NJ-11: Lean R
NJ-12: Safe D